Stress testing and risk evaluation of new capacity payment algorithm proposed by Market Council

In the Russian Wholesale Market, electricity and capacity are traded separately. Capacity is a special good, the sale of which obliges suppliers to keep their generating equipment ready to produce the quantity of electricity indicated by the System Operator. The purpose of the formation of capacity trading was the maintenance of reliable and uninterrupted delivery of electricity in the wholesale market. The price of capacity reflects constant investments in construction, modernization and maintenance of power plants. So, the capacity sale creates favorable conditions to attract investments in the energy sector because it guarantees the investor that his investments will be returned.

Antimicrobial Resistance in Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli

Antimicrobial Resistance in Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli Campylobacters are a common cause of bacterial gastroenteritis worldwide, with Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli being the most common species isolated in human infections. If antimicrobial treatment is required, the drugs of choice at the moment are the macrolides and fluoroquinolones. In this thesis, the in vitro resistance profiles of the C. jejuni and C. coli strains were evaluated with emphasis on multidrug resistance. The aim was also to evaluate the different resistance mechanisms against the macrolides. Further, the disk diffusion method was compared to agar dilution method and its repeatability was evaluated, since it has been widely used for the susceptibility testing of campylobacters. The results of the present study showed that resistance to the fluoroquinolones is common in strains isolated from Finnish patients, but resistance to the macrolides is still rare. Multidrug resistance was associated with resistance to both ciprofloxacin and erythromycin. Among the available per oral drugs, least resistance was observed to coamoxiclav There was no resistance to the carbapenems. Sitafloxacin and tigecycline were in vitro highly effective towards Campylobacter species. A point mutation A2059G of the 23S rRNA gene was the main mechanism behind the macrolide resistance, whereas the efflux pumps did not seem to play an important role when a strain had A2059G mutation. A five amino acids insertion, which has not been described previously, in the ribosomal protein L22 of one highly-resistant C. jejuni strain without mutation in the 23S rRNA gene was also detected. Concerning the disk diffusion method, there was variation in the repeatability In conclusion, macrolides still appear to be the first-choice alternative for suspected Campylobacter enteritis. The in vitro susceptibilities found suggest that co-amoxiclav might be a candidate for clinical trials on campylobacteriosis, but in life-threatening situations, a carbapenem may be the drug of choice. More studies are needed on whether the disk diffusion test method could be improved or whether all susceptibilities of campylobacters should be done using a MIC based method.

Automated Software Testing in Machine Automation

The problem of software (SW) defaults is becoming more and more topical because of increasing amount of the SW and its complication. The majority of these defaults are founded during the test part that consumes about 40-50% of the development efforts. Test automation allows reducing the cost of this process and increasing testing effectiveness. In the middle of 1980 the first tools for automated testing appeared and the automated process was implemented in different kinds of SW testing. In short time, it became obviously, automated testing can cause many problems such as increasing product cost, decreasing reliability and even project fail. This thesis describes automated testing process, its concept, lists main problems, and gives an algorithm for automated test tools selection. Also this work presents an overview of the main automated test tools for embedded systems.

Genetically Determined Hypometabolism in Alzheimer’s Disease and Midlife Risk Factors for Cognitive Impairment

The role of genetic factors in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is not completely understood. In order to improve this understanding, the cerebral glucose metabolism of seven monozygotic and nine dizygotic twin pairs discordant for AD was compared to that of 13 unrelated controls using positron emission tomography (PET). Traditional region of interest analysis revealed no differences between the non-demented dizygotic co-twins and controls. In contrast, in voxel-level and automated region of interest analyses, the non-demented monozygotic co-twins displayed a lower metabolic rate in temporal and parietal cortices as well as in subcortical grey matter structures when compared to controls. Again, no reductions were seen in the non-demented dizygotic co-twins. The reductions seen in the non-demented monozygotic co-twins may indicate a higher genetically mediated risk of AD or genetically mediated hypometabolism possibly rendering them more vulnerable to AD pathogenesis. With no disease modifying treatment available for AD, prevention of dementia is of the utmost importance. A total of 2 165 at least 65 years old twins of the Finnish Twin Cohort with questionnaire data from 1981 participated in a validated telephone interview assessing cognitive function between 1999 and 2007. Those subjects reporting heavy alcohol drinking in 1981 had an elevated cognitive impairment risk over 20 years later compared to light drinkers. In addition, binge drinking was associated with an increased risk even when total alcohol consumption was controlled for, suggesting that binge drinking is an independent risk factor for cognitive impairment. When compared to light drinkers, also non-drinkers had an increased risk of cognitive impairment. Midlife hypertension, obesity and low leisure time physical activity but not hypercholesterolemia were significant risk factors for cognitive impairment. The accumulation of risk factors increased cognitive impairment risk in an additive manner. A previously postulated dementia risk score based on midlife demographic and cardiovascular factors was validated. The risk score was found to well predict cognitive impairment risk, and cognitive impairment risk increased significantly as the score became higher. However, the risk score is not accurate enough for use in the clinic without further testing.

Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Externally excited synchronous machine: Testing the automation concept

This bachelor’s thesis is a part of the research project realized in the summer 2011 in Lappeenranta University of Technology. The goal of the project was to develop an automation concept for controlling the externally excited synchronous motor. Thesis concentrates on the testing planning and testing the system. Testing plan was made for three sectors: For the PLC program testing, for the communication testing and for the whole system testing. PLC program was tested with white box and destructive methods. Communication testing was done by switching maximum com-munication speed and checked if communication was reliable. Whole system testing included among other things speed and torque controlling. The system was tested with exploratory testing also. This enabled more reliable and broader testing than with systematical testing only.

Welding development of crane main girder

Konecranes Corporation manufactures huge steel structures in 16 factories worldwide, in which the environment and quality varies. The company has a desire to achieve the same weld quality in each factory, regardless of the manufacturing place. The main subject of this master’s thesis was to develop the present box girder crane welding process, submerged arc welding and especially the fillet welding. Throughput time and manufacturing costs can be decreased by welding the full penetration fillet weld without a bevel, changing present groove types for more appropriate ones and by achieving the desired weld quality on the first time. Welding experiments of longitudinal fillet welding were made according to the present challenges, which the manufacturing process is facing. In longitudinal fillet welding tests the main focus was to achieve full penetration fillet weld for 6, 8 and 10 millimeters thick web plates with single and twin wire submerged arc welding. Full penetration was achieved with all the material thicknesses, both with single and twin wire submerged arc welding processes. The main problem concerning the weld was undercutting and shape of the weld bead. The question about insufficiency of presently used power sources with twin wire was risen up during testing, due to the thicknesses that require high welding current. Bigger power source is required when box girders are welded nonstop, if twin wire is used. For single wire process the penetration was achieved with significantly less amperage than with twin wire.

Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

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Testing Platform Development for Large Scale Solar Integration

Currently, a high penetration level of Distributed Generations (DGs) has been observed in the Danish distribution systems, and even more DGs are foreseen to be present in the upcoming years. How to utilize them for maintaining the security of the power supply under the emergency situations, has been of great interest for study. This master project is intended to develop a control architecture for studying purposes of distribution systems with large scale integration of solar power. As part of the EcoGrid EU Smart Grid project, it focuses on the system modelling and simulation of a Danish representative LV network located in Bornholm island. Regarding the control architecture, two types of reactive control techniques are implemented and compare. In addition, a network voltage control based on a tap changer transformer is tested. The optimized results after applying a genetic algorithm to five typical Danish domestic loads are lower power losses and voltage deviation using Q(U) control, specially with large consumptions. Finally, a communication and information exchange system is developed with the objective of regulating the reactive power and thereby, the network voltage remotely and real-time. Validation test of the simulated parameters are performed as well.