Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Aging based maintenance and reinvestment scheduling of electric distribution

The maintenance of electric distribution network is a topical question for distribution system operators because of increasing significance of failure costs. In this dissertation the maintenance practices of the distribution system operators are analyzed and a theory for scheduling maintenance activities and reinvestment of distribution components is created. The scheduling is based on the deterioration of components and the increasing failure rates due to aging. The dynamic programming algorithm is used as a solving method to maintenance problem which is caused by the increasing failure rates of the network. The other impacts of network maintenance like environmental and regulation reasons are not included to the scope of this thesis. Further the tree trimming of the corridors and the major disturbance of the network are not included to the problem optimized in this thesis. For optimizing, four dynamic programming models are presented and the models are tested. Programming is made in VBA-language to the computer. For testing two different kinds of test networks are used. Because electric distribution system operators want to operate with bigger component groups, optimal timing for component groups is also analyzed. A maintenance software package is created to apply the presented theories in practice. An overview of the program is presented.

Enterprise applications migration to the cloud: risks and opportunities

Millions of enterprises move their applications to a cloud every year. According to Forrester Research “the global cloud computing market will grow from a $40.7 billion in 2011 to $241 billion in 2020”. Due to increased interests and demand broad range of providers and solutions have appeared in the market. It is vital to be able to predict possible problems correctly and to classify and mitigate risks associated with the migration process. The study will show the main criteria that should be taken into consideration while making decision of moving enterprise applications to the cloud and choosing appropriate vendor. The main goal of the research is to identify main problems during the migration to a cloud and propose a solution for their prevention and mitigation of consequences in case of occurrence. The research provides an overview of existing cloud solutions and deployment models for enterprise applications. It identifies decision drivers of an applications migration to a cloud and potential risks and benefits associated with this. Finally, the best practices for the successful enterprise-to-cloud migration based on the case studies analysis are formulated.

The Present State and Future Prospects of a Manpower Pool as Part of Project Business

This research focused on operation of a manpower pool within a service business unit in Company X and aimed to identify how the operation should be improved in order to get most out of it concerning the future prospects of the service business unit. This was done by analyzing the current state of the manpower pool related operations in means of project business, project management and business models. The objective was to deepen the understanding and to highlight possible areas of improvement. The research was conducted as a qualitative single-case study utilizing also an action research method; the research approach was a combination of conceptual, action-oriented and constructive approaches. The primary data was collected with executing a comprehensive literature review and semi-structured theme interviews. The main results described how the manpower pool operates as part of the service business unit in project business by participating in different types of delivery projects; process flows for the project types were mapped. Project management was analyzed especially from the resource management point of view, and an Excel-based skills analysis model was constructed for this purpose. Utilization of operational business models was also studied to define strategic direction for development activities. The results were benchmarked against two competitors in order to specify lessons to be learnt from their use of operational business models.

Qualitative Characteristics and Quantitative Measures of Solution's Reliability in Discrete Optimization: Traditional Analytical Approaches, Innovative Computational Methods and Applicability

The purpose of this thesis is twofold. The first and major part is devoted to sensitivity analysis of various discrete optimization problems while the second part addresses methods applied for calculating measures of solution stability and solving multicriteria discrete optimization problems. Despite numerous approaches to stability analysis of discrete optimization problems two major directions can be single out: quantitative and qualitative. Qualitative sensitivity analysis is conducted for multicriteria discrete optimization problems with minisum, minimax and minimin partial criteria. The main results obtained here are necessary and sufficient conditions for different stability types of optimal solutions (or a set of optimal solutions) of the considered problems. Within the framework of quantitative direction various measures of solution stability are investigated. A formula for a quantitative characteristic called stability radius is obtained for the generalized equilibrium situation invariant to changes of game parameters in the case of the H¨older metric. Quality of the problem solution can also be described in terms of robustness analysis. In this work the concepts of accuracy and robustness tolerances are presented for a strategic game with a finite number of players where initial coefficients (costs) of linear payoff functions are subject to perturbations. Investigation of stability radius also aims to devise methods for its calculation. A new metaheuristic approach is derived for calculation of stability radius of an optimal solution to the shortest path problem. The main advantage of the developed method is that it can be potentially applicable for calculating stability radii of NP-hard problems. The last chapter of the thesis focuses on deriving innovative methods based on interactive optimization approach for solving multicriteria combinatorial optimization problems. The key idea of the proposed approach is to utilize a parameterized achievement scalarizing function for solution calculation and to direct interactive procedure by changing weighting coefficients of this function. In order to illustrate the introduced ideas a decision making process is simulated for three objective median location problem. The concepts, models, and ideas collected and analyzed in this thesis create a good and relevant grounds for developing more complicated and integrated models of postoptimal analysis and solving the most computationally challenging problems related to it.

On state and parameter estimation in chaotic systems

State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

Design and validation of stateful composite RESTful web services

A web service is a software system that provides a machine-processable interface to the other machines over the network using different Internet protocols. They are being increasingly used in the industry in order to automate different tasks and offer services to a wider audience. The REST architectural style aims at producing scalable and extensible web services using technologies that play well with the existing tools and infrastructure of the web. It provides a uniform set of operation that can be used to invoke a CRUD interface (create, retrieve, update and delete) of a web service. The stateless behavior of the service interface requires that every request to a resource is independent of the previous ones facilitating scalability. Automated systems, e.g., hotel reservation systems, provide advanced scenarios for stateful services that require a certain sequence of requests that must be followed in order to fulfill the service goals. Designing and developing such services for advanced scenarios with REST constraints require rigorous approaches that are capable of creating web services that can be trusted for their behavior. Systems that can be trusted for their behavior can be termed as dependable systems. This thesis presents an integrated design, analysis and validation approach that facilitates the service developer to create dependable and stateful REST web services. The main contribution of this thesis is that we provide a novel model-driven methodology to design behavioral REST web service interfaces and their compositions. The behavioral interfaces provide information on what methods can be invoked on a service and the pre- and post-conditions of these methods. The methodology uses Unified Modeling Language (UML), as the modeling language, which has a wide user base and has mature tools that are continuously evolving. We have used UML class diagram and UML state machine diagram with additional design constraints to provide resource and behavioral models, respectively, for designing REST web service interfaces. These service design models serve as a specification document and the information presented in them have manifold applications. The service design models also contain information about the time and domain requirements of the service that can help in requirement traceability which is an important part of our approach. Requirement traceability helps in capturing faults in the design models and other elements of software development environment by tracing back and forth the unfulfilled requirements of the service. The information about service actors is also included in the design models which is required for authenticating the service requests by authorized actors since not all types of users have access to all the resources. In addition, following our design approach, the service developer can ensure that the designed web service interfaces will be REST compliant. The second contribution of this thesis is consistency analysis of the behavioral REST interfaces. To overcome the inconsistency problem and design errors in our service models, we have used semantic technologies. The REST interfaces are represented in web ontology language, OWL2, that can be part of the semantic web. These interfaces are used with OWL 2 reasoners to check unsatisfiable concepts which result in implementations that fail. This work is fully automated thanks to the implemented translation tool and the existing OWL 2 reasoners. The third contribution of this thesis is the verification and validation of REST web services. We have used model checking techniques with UPPAAL model checker for this purpose. The timed automata of UML based service design models are generated with our transformation tool that are verified for their basic characteristics like deadlock freedom, liveness, reachability and safety. The implementation of a web service is tested using a black-box testing approach. Test cases are generated from the UPPAAL timed automata and using the online testing tool, UPPAAL TRON, the service implementation is validated at runtime against its specifications. Requirement traceability is also addressed in our validation approach with which we can see what service goals are met and trace back the unfulfilled service goals to detect the faults in the design models. A final contribution of the thesis is an implementation of behavioral REST interfaces and service monitors from the service design models. The partial code generation tool creates code skeletons of REST web services with method pre and post-conditions. The preconditions of methods constrain the user to invoke the stateful REST service under the right conditions and the post condition constraint the service developer to implement the right functionality. The details of the methods can be manually inserted by the developer as required. We do not target complete automation because we focus only on the interface aspects of the web service. The applicability of the approach is demonstrated with a pedagogical example of a hotel room booking service and a relatively complex worked example of holiday booking service taken from the industrial context. The former example presents a simple explanation of the approach and the later worked example shows how stateful and timed web services offering complex scenarios and involving other web services can be constructed using our approach.

Antecedents and Performance Outcomes of Entrepreneurial Orientation: a Comparative Cross-Country Study

Development of entrepreneurial orientation (EO) within a company is considered to be significant for firm performance in a contemporary market society with constantly changing environment. Considered as entrepreneurial, the firm is able to innovate, make risky investments and be proactive. The purpose of the thesis is to investigate factors which influence EO, the impact of EO on firm performance, and a mediating role of EO in developed and emerging market contexts. The empirical research is conducted quantitatively in a form of a survey in Russia and Finland. The results of the thesis have shown that the relationship between antecedents, EO and firm performance outcomes is different in developed and emerging contexts and can be explained by cultural differences and institutional development. The empirical research has both theoretical and practical novelty. It contributes to the existing literature on EO by the usage of comparative cross-country approach and a broader three-way interaction model between the variables. A general practical implication of the research is that managers may benefit from developing entrepreneurial strategic posture in particular contexts.

Networks and partnerships in third party logistics service production

Third party logistics, and third party logistics providers and the services they offer have grown substantially in the last twenty years. Even though there has been extensive research on third party logistics providers, and regular industry reviews within the logistics industry, a closer research in the area of partner selection and network models in the third party logistics industry is missing. The perspective taken in this study was of expanding the network research into logistics service providers as the focal firm in the network. The purpose of the study is to analyze partnerships and networks in the third party logistics industry in order to define how networks are utilized in third party logistics markets, what have been the reasons for the partnerships, and whether there are benefits for the third party logistics provider that can be achieved through building networks and partnerships. The theoretical framework of this study was formed based on common theories in studying networks and partnerships in accordance with models of horizontal and vertical partnerships. The theories applied to the framework and context of this study included the strategic network view and the resource-based view. Applying these two network theories to the position and networks of third party logistics providers in an industrial supply chain, a theoretical model for analyzing the horizontal and vertical partnerships where the TPL provider is in focus was structured. The empirical analysis of TPL partnerships consisted of a qualitative document analysis of 33 partnership examples involving companies present in the Finnish TPL markets. For the research, existing documents providing secondary data on types of partnerships, reasons for the partnerships, and outcomes of the partnerships were searched from available online sources. Findings of the study revealed that third party logistics providers are evident in horizontal and vertical interactions varying in geographical coverage and the depth and nature of the relationship. Partnership decisions were found to be made on resource based reasons, as well as from strategic aspects. The discovered results of the partnerships in this study included cost reduction and effectiveness in the partnerships for improving existing services. In addition in partnerships created for innovative service extension, differentiation, and creation of additional value were discovered to have emerged as results of the cooperation. It can be concluded that benefits and competitive advantage can be created through building partnerships in order to expand service offering and seeking synergies.

Guilt, shame, emotion regulation, and social cognition: Understanding their associations with preadolescents' social behavior

In this thesis, two negatively valenced emotions are approached as reflecting children’s self-consciousness, namely guilt and shame. Despite the notable role of emotions in the psychological research, empirical research findings on the links between guilt, shame, and children’s social behavior – and particularly aggression – have been modest, inconsistent, and sometimes contradictory. This thesis contains four studies on the associations of guilt, shame, emotion regulation, and social cognitions with children’s social behavior. The longitudinal material of the thesis was collected as a survey among a relatively large amount of Finnish preadolescents. In Study I, the distinctiveness of guilt and shame in children’s social behavior were investigated. The more specific links of emotions and aggressive behavior were explored in Study II, in which emotion regulation and negative emotionality were treated as the moderators between guilt, shame, and children’s aggressive behavior. The role of emotion management was further evaluated in Study III, in which effortful control and anger were treated as the moderators between domain-specific aggressive cognitions and children’s aggressive behavior. In the light of the results from the Studies II and III, it seems that for children with poor emotion management the effects of emotions and social cognitions on aggressive behavior are straight-forward, whereas effective emotion management allows for reframing the situation. Finally, in Study IV, context effects on children’s anticipated emotions were evaluated, such that children were presented a series of hypothetical vignettes, in which the child was acting as the aggressor. Furthermore, the identity of the witnesses and victim’s reactions were systematically manipulated. Children anticipated the most shame in situations, in which all of the class was witnessing the aggressive act, whereas both guilt and shame were anticipated the most in the situations, in which the victim was reacting with sadness. Girls and low-aggressive children were more sensitive to contextual cues than boys and high-aggressive children. Overall, the results of this thesis suggest that the influences of guilt, shame, and social cognition on preadolescents’ aggressive behavior depend significantly on the nature of individual emotion regulation, as well as situational contexts. Both theoretical and practical implications of this study highlight a need to acknowledge effective emotion management as enabling the justification of one’s own immoral behavior.

e-Business and collaboration: A case study of pulp supply chain

This thesis studies how the case company could digitalize its supply chain and what kind of advantages this would create in the light of supply chain efficiency. The case company manufactures several pulp products that are used for paper, fabrics and packaging products by customers worldwide. The paper and pulp industry has been paying more and more attention to increasing supply chain efficiency with new operating and service models made possible by today’s information technology. The main focus of this study is on the supply chain between the case company and its key customers and the goal is to find ways to make the operations between them as efficient as possible. The study relays heavily on collaboration techniques and digitalization technologies. In addition to a theoretical framework, the study includes several empirical studies that offer real-life examples of how these theories and technologies are applied in operating environments similar to the case company. A plan with strategic and operational levels is created according to the findings of the previous sections to support the case company’s future operations. The plan is based on an RFID-supported collaboration model that aims to advance information sharing between the supply chain partners. The time for an RFID-investment is sought to be very optimal and the benefits of such system to be noteworthy, but challenging to measure in monetary terms.

Organizing for Systemic Innovations – Research on Knowledge, Interaction and Organizational Interdependencies

Systemic innovation has emerged as an important topic due to the interconnected technological and sociotechnical change of our current complex world. This study approaches the phenomenon from an organizing perspective, by analyzing the various actors, collaborative activities and resources available in innovation systems. It presents knowledge production for innovation and discusses the organizational challenges of shared innovation activities from a dynamic perspective. Knowledge, interaction, and organizational interdependencies are seen as the core elements of organizing for systemic innovations. This dissertation is divided into two parts. The first part introduces the focus of the study and the relevant literature and summarizes conclusions. The second part includes seven publications, each reporting on an important aspect of the phenomenon studied. Each of the in-depth single-case studies takes a distinct and complementary systems approach to innovation activities – linking the refining of knowledge to the enabling of organizations to participate in shared innovation processes. These aspects are summarized as theoretical and practical implications for recognizing innovation opportunities and turning ideas into innovations by means of using information and organizing activities in an efficient manner. Through its investigation of the existing literature and empirical case studies, this study makes three main contributions. First, it describes the challenges inherent in utilizing information and transforming it into innovation knowledge. Secondly, it presents the role of interaction and organizational interdependencies in innovation activities from various novel perspectives. Third, it highlights the interconnection between innovations and organizations, and the related path dependency and anticipatory aspects in innovation activities. In general, the thesis adds to our knowledge of how different aspects of systems form innovations through interaction and organizational interdependencies. It highlights the continuous need to redefine information and adjust organizations and networks based on ongoing activities – stressing the emergent, systemic nature of innovation.

Fluvio-morphological processes of meander bends - Combining conventional field measurements, close-range remote sensing and computational modelling

Meandering rivers have been perceived to evolve rather similarly around the world independently of the location or size of the river. Despite the many consistent processes and characteristics they have also been noted to show complex and unique sets of fluviomorphological processes in which local factors play important role. These complex interactions of flow and morphology affect notably the development of the river. Comprehensive and fundamental field, flume and theoretically based studies of fluviomorphological processes in meandering rivers have been carried out especially during the latter part of the 20th century. However, as these studies have been carried out with traditional field measurements techniques their spatial and temporal resolution is not competitive to the level achievable today. The hypothesis of this study is that, by exploiting e increased spatial and temporal resolution of the data, achieved by combining conventional field measurements with a range of modern technologies, will provide new insights to the spatial patterns of the flow-sediment interaction in meandering streams, which have perceived to show notable variation in space and time. This thesis shows how the modern technologies can be combined to derive very high spatial and temporal resolution data on fluvio-morphological processes over meander bends. The flow structure over the bends is recorded in situ using acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and the spatial and temporal resolution of the flow data is enhanced using 2D and 3D CFD over various meander bends. The CFD are also exploited to simulate sediment transport. Multi-temporal terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), mobile laser scanning (MLS) and echo sounding data are used to measure the flow-based changes and formations over meander bends and to build the computational models. The spatial patterns of erosion and deposition over meander bends are analysed relative to the measured and modelled flow field and sediment transport. The results are compared with the classic theories of the processes in meander bends. Mainly, the results of this study follow well the existing theories and results of previous studies. However, some new insights regarding to the spatial and temporal patterns of the flow-sediment interaction in a natural sand-bed meander bend are provided. The results of this study show the advantages of the rapid and detailed measurements techniques and the achieved spatial and temporal resolution provided by CFD, unachievable with field measurements. The thesis also discusses the limitations which remain in the measurement and modelling methods and in understanding of fluvial geomorphology of meander bends. Further, the hydro- and morphodynamic models’ sensitivity to user-defined parameters is tested, and the modelling results are assessed against detailed field measurement. The study is implemented in the meandering sub-Arctic Pulmanki River in Finland. The river is unregulated and sand-bed and major morphological changes occur annually on the meander point bars, which are inundated only during the snow-melt-induced spring floods. The outcome of this study applies to sandbed meandering rivers in regions where normally one significant flood event occurs annually, such as Arctic areas with snow-melt induced spring floods, and where the point bars of the meander bends are inundated only during the flood events.

Simulation model of wind turbine gearbox and lubrication system

As increasing efficiency of a wind turbine gearbox, more power can be transferred from rotor blades to generator and less power is used to cause wear and heating in the gearbox. By using a simulation model, behavior of the gearbox can be studied before creating expensive prototypes. The objective of the thesis is to model a wind turbine gearbox and its lubrication system to study power losses and heat transfer inside the gearbox and to study the simulation methods of the used software. Software used to create the simulation model is Siemens LMS Imagine.Lab AMESim, which can be used to create one-dimensional mechatronic system simulation models from different fields of engineering. When combining components from different libraries it is possible to create a simulation model, which includes mechanical, thermal and hydraulic models of the gearbox. Results for mechanical, thermal, and hydraulic simulations are presented in the thesis. Due to the large scale of the wind turbine gearbox and the amount of power transmitted, power loss calculations from AMESim software are inaccurate and power losses are modelled as constant efficiency for each gear mesh. Starting values for simulation in thermal and hydraulic simulations were chosen from test measurements and from empirical study as compact and complex design of gearbox prevents accurate test measurements. In further studies to increase the accuracy of the simulation model, components used for power loss calculations needs to be modified and values for unknown variables are needed to be solved through accurate test measurements.

Dynamic capabilities as enablers of value co-creation between an MBA school and its students

This study presents an understanding of how a U.S. based, international MBA school has been able to achieve competitive advantage within a relatively short period of time. A framework is built to comprehend how the dynamic capability and value co-creation theories are connected and to understand how the dynamic capabilities have enabled value co-creation to happen between the school and its students, leading to such competitive advantage for the school. The data collection method followed a qualitative single-case study with a process perspective. Seven semi-structured interviews were made in September and October of 2015; one current employee of the MBA school was interviewed, with the other six being graduates and/or former employees of the MBA school. In addition, the researcher has worked as a recruiter at the MBA school, enabling to build bridges and a coherent whole of the empirical findings. Data analysis was conducted by first identifying themes from interviews, after which a narrative was written and a causal network model was built. Thus, a combination of thematic analysis, narrative and grounded theory were used as data analysis methods. This study finds that value co-creation is enabled by the dynamic capabilities of the MBA school; also capabilities would not be dynamic if value co-creation did not take place. Thus, this study presents that even though the two theories represent different level analyses, they are intertwined and together they can help to explain competitive advantage. The MBA case school’s dynamic capabilities are identified to be the sales & marketing capabilities and international market creation capabilities, thus the study finds that the MBA school does not only co-create value with existing students (customers) in the school setting, but instead, most of the value co-creation happens between the school and the student cohorts (network) already in the recruiting phase. Therefore, as a theoretical implication, the network should be considered as part of the context. The main value created seem to lie in the MBA case school’s international setting & networks. MBA schools around the world can learn from this study; schools should try to find their own niche and specialize, based on their own values and capabilities. With a differentiating focus and a unique and practical content, the schools can and should be well-marketed and proactively sold in order to receive more student applications and enhance competitive advantage. Even though an MBA school can effectively be treated as a business, as the study shows, the main emphasis should still be on providing quality education. Good content with efficient marketing can be the winning combination for an MBA school.