TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

Review of investment strategy, portfolio management, and scorecard based portfolio selection tool for direct property investments in Finland

The lack of research of private real estate is a well-known problem. Earlier studies have mostly concentrated on the USA or the UK. Therefore, this master thesis offers more information about the performance and risk associated with private real estate investments in Nordic countries, but especially in Finland. The structure of this master thesis is divided into two independent sections based on the research questions. In first section, database analysis is performed to assess risk-return ratio of direct real estate investment for Nordic countries. Risk-return ratios are also assessed for different property sectors and economic regions. Finally, review of diversification strategies based on property sectors and economic regions is performed. However, standard deviation itself is not usually sufficient method to evaluate riskiness of private real estate. There is demand for more explicit assessment of property risk. One solution is property risk scoring. In second section risk scorecard based tool is built to make different real estate comparable in terms of risk. In order to do this, nine real estate professionals were interviewed to enhance the structure of theory-based risk scorecard and to assess weights for different risk factors.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on the Economic Growth of Bangladesh. The Roles of Infrastructural Facilities

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow has been a key concern for Bangladesh to obtain additional support for the economic development. The Government of Bangladesh continuously competing with other South Asian countries and putting more effort to increase the number of FDI inflows in the country. From the country’s perspective, the constant increasing rate of economic growth shows a positive outcome of FDI inflow. However, the country still not performing up to the mark to pull enough FDI inflows to its potential. Thus, this study discusses about the major determinants and factors affecting FDI inflows in Bangladesh. Among those determinants and factors, infrastructural facility is considered as the most important to affect FDI inflows. FDI inflow is fundamentally depending upon infrastructural facilities to achieve its desire success. Foreign investors take this issue very seriously because based on this they can measure their ease of doing business in the host country. Despite of providing a large market size, due to having weak and lack of infrastructural facilities, Bangladesh is facing trouble in drawing attention of the foreign investors. In order to make the infrastructural facilities happen, it is highly required to organize each of the systems under of it. The body of this study discussed about the weak infrastructures in Bangladesh such as transport and communication, power and energy, education system, and governance services. Improvement in one of these systems cannot provide valuable positive changes on FDI inflows. It requires improvement in all the weak systems to grasp multinational companies and attract foreign investors. On the basis of this research problem, research questions are established. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to answer the research questions. Furthermore, several theories have been applied to justify possible scenarios from the research problem. In addition, the history in between Bangladesh, trade liberalization, and FDI inflows is presented briefly.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on the Economic Growth of Bangladesh. The Roles of Infrastructural Facilities

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow has been a key concern for Bangladesh to obtain additional support for the economic development. The Government of Bangladesh continuously competing with other South Asian countries and putting more effort to increase the number of FDI inflows in the country. From the country’s perspective, the constant increasing rate of economic growth shows a positive outcome of FDI inflow. However, the country still not performing up to the mark to pull enough FDI inflows to its potential. Thus, this study discusses about the major determinants and factors affecting FDI inflows in Bangladesh. Among those determinants and factors, infrastructural facility is considered as the most important to affect FDI inflows. FDI inflow is fundamentally depending upon infrastructural facilities to achieve its desire success. Foreign investors take this issue very seriously because based on this they can measure their ease of doing business in the host country. Despite of providing a large market size, due to having weak and lack of infrastructural facilities, Bangladesh is facing trouble in drawing attention of the foreign investors. In order to make the infrastructural facilities happen, it is highly required to organize each of the systems under of it. The body of this study discussed about the weak infrastructures in Bangladesh such as transport and communication, power and energy, education system, and governance services. Improvement in one of these systems cannot provide valuable positive changes on FDI inflows. It requires improvement in all the weak systems to grasp multinational companies and attract foreign investors. On the basis of this research problem, research questions are established. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to answer the research questions. Furthermore, several theories have been applied to justify possible scenarios from the research problem. In addition, the history in between Bangladesh, trade liberalization, and FDI inflows is presented briefly

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

POLITICAL RISK IN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

Russia approved ambitious reform plan for the electricity sector in 2001 including privatisation of the country’s huge thermal generation assets. So far the sector had suffered from power shortages, aging infrastructure, substantial electricity losses, and weak productivity and profitability numbers. There was obvious need for foreign investments and technologies. The reform was rather successful; the generation assets were privatised in auctions in 2007-2008 and three European energy companies, E.On, Enel and Fortum, invested in and obtained together over 10% of the Russian production assets. The novelty of these foreign investments serves unique object for the study. The political risk is involved in the FDI due to the industry’s social and economic importance. The research’s objective was to identify and analyse the political risk that foreign investors face in the Russian electricity sector. The research had qualitative study method and the empirical data was collected by interviewing. The research’s theoretical framework was based on the existing political risk theories and it focused to understand the Russian government in relation to the country’s stability and define both macro-level and micro-level sources of political risk for the foreign direct investments in the sector. The research concludes that the centralised and obscure political decision-making, economic constriction, high level of governmental control in economy and corruption form the country’s internal macro-level risk sources for the foreign investors in the sector. Additionally the retribution due to the companies’ home country actions, possible violent confrontations at the Russian borders and the currency instability are externally originated risk sources. In the electricity industry there is risk of tightened governmental control and increased regulation and taxation. Similarly the company-level risk sources link to the unreformed heating sector, bargaining with the authorities, diplomatic stress between host and home countries and to companies and government’s divergent perspective for the profit-making. The research stresses the foreign companies’ ability to cope with the characteristics of Russian political environment. In addition to frequent political and market risk assessment, the companies need to focus on currency protection against rouble’s rate fluctuation and actively build good company-citizenship in the country. Good relationship is needed with the Russian political authorities. The political risk identification and the research’s conclusive framework also enable political risk study assessments for other industries in Russia

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

The role of public export promotion in Finland Industry view of public export promotion in Southwest Finland

The role of the public export promotion in Finland needed more research. The part of the public sector export promotion in the overall export is significant. In an ever more global world not only the companies but also the counties compete against each other and the governments have an interest to boost their economy as much as they are able to. Every industrialized country has export promotion services in some form or another. In the 21st century the tendency has been the bundling of the services and this has also been done in Finland with Team Finland. The role and the efficiency of the services provided deserve more research. The research question of this study is: What is the role of the public export promotion services in Finland? The question is researched primary by expert interviews conducted for this study. The situation in Southwest Finland is studied from the viewpoint of the companies of the region by conducting a survey aimed to the successfully internationalized companies of the region and asking them on their views on the impact and role of public export services in their internationalization. The theory base is formed out of various export promotion studies, studies monitoring the effects of the promotion and theories of the internationalization process of companies. The primary material for the study are the three expert interviews conducted and the answers to the survey conducted. The research method in the first part is a constructive qualitative research. The research approach in the second part, where the views of the companies in Southwest Finland are studied, is quantitative. The study findings from the expert interviews: the aligning of the public export promotion done in Finland to the previous research and the addition of the role of the public sector in classical frameworks. The study findings from the survey: the utilizing of the public export promotion services is heavily delayed and the internationalizing companies start to utilize the services very late in their internationalization process, the average being 10,3 years from the beginning of the internationalization. Another central finding from the survey is that the successfully internationalized companies see the public export promotion services generally as highly beneficial but in the light of the answers the effect on their own company is not as significant. Concluding can be stated that the public export promotion is seen as beneficial, but the monitoring of the efficiency is complicated in the case of services. Getting the companies to start utilizing the services earlier in their internationalization needs attention from the service providers. By communicating the achieved results and benefits better to the potential users of the services the internationalization process of the companies could be accelerated