Achieving EU energy targets – Impacts of evolutionary and revolutionary transition paths on power systems

Ambitious energy targets set by EU put pressures to increase share of renewable electricity supply in this and next decades and therefore, some EU member countries have boosted increasing renewable energy generation capacity by implementing subsidy schemes on national level. In this study, two different change approaches to increase renewable energy supply and increase self-sufficiency of supply are assessed with respect to their impacts on power system, electricity market and electricity generation costs in Finland. It is obtained that the current electricity generation costs are high compared to opportunities of earnings from present-day investor’s perspective. In addition, the growth expectations of consumptions and the price forecasts do not stimulate investing in new generation capacity. Revolutionary transition path is driven by administrative and political interventions to achieve the energy targets. Evolutionary transition path is driven by market-based mechanisms, such as market itself and emission trading scheme. It is obtained in this study that in the revolutionary transition path operation of market-based mechanisms is distorted to some extent and it is likely that this path requires providing more public financial resources compared to evolutionary transition path. In the evolutionary transition path the energy targets are not achieved as quickly but market-based mechanisms function better and investment environment endures more stable compared to revolutionary transition path.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Quantitative analysis of nodal prices in the New Zealand Electricity Spot Market

Time series of hourly electricity spot prices have peculiar properties. Electricity is by its nature difficult to store and has to be available on demand. There are many reasons for wanting to understand correlations in price movements, e.g. risk management purposes. The entire analysis carried out in this thesis has been applied to the New Zealand nodal electricity prices: offer prices (from 29 May 2002 to 31 March 2009) and final prices (from 1 January 1999 to 31 March 2009). In this paper, such natural factors as location of the node and generation type in the node that effects the correlation between nodal prices have been reviewed. It was noticed that the geographical factor affects the correlation between nodes more than others. Therefore, the visualisation of correlated nodes was done. However, for the offer prices the clear separation of correlated and not correlated nodes was not obtained. Finally, it was concluded that location factor most strongly affects correlation of electricity nodal prices; problems in visualisation probably associated with power losses when the power is transmitted over long distance.

Verkostoskenaarioiden arviointi sähkön jakeluverkkotoiminnan valvontamenetelmien kannalta

Tämän työn tavoitteena oli selvittää sähkön jakeluverkkotoiminnan valvontamenetelmien muutoksien vaikutuksia Loiste Sähköverkko Oy:n talouteen neljännellä ja viidennellä valvontajaksolla. Tarkastelua varten tehtiin talousmalli, joka mallintaa verkkoyhtiön taloutta vuoteen 2040 asti. Talousmallissa mallinnettiin kaikkien kannustimien vaikutus paitsi innovaatio- ja toimitusvarmuuskannustimien vaikutus. Talousmallinnuksen perusperiaate oli, että mitä ei pystytä kattamaan siirtotuloilla, rahoitetaan vieraalla pääomalla, kun kassavirran minimitaso ja investointitaso ovat valittu. Talousmallilla tarkasteltiin neljää erilaista verkostoskenaariota. Tarkasteltavat verkostoskenaariot olivat kehittämissuunnitelman mukainen skenaario, nopeutettu kehittämissuunnitelman mukainen skenaario, kaapelointipainotteinen skenaario ja kunnossapitopainotteinen skenaario. Verkon arvon kehittyminen verkostoskenaarioissa mallinnettiin Loiste Sähköverkko Oy:n investointimallilla ja kuvattiin talousmallinnusta varten jälleenhankinta-arvon, nykykäyttöarvon, investointien ja tasapoistojen kehittymisellä vuoteen 2029 asti. Työn tulosten perusteella kehittämissuunnitelman mukaisessa skenaariossa vieraan pääoman määrä pysyy kohtuullisena ja mahdollistaa kohtuullisen kassavirran tarkastelujakson lopussa. Nopeutetussa kehittämissuunnitelman mukaisessa skenaariossa ja kaapelointipainotteisissa skenaariossa vieraan pääoman määrä kasvaa merkittävästi, mikä voi lisätä liiketaloudellisia riskejä, mutta toisaalta mahdollistavat korkeamman kassavirran tarkastelujakson lopussa. Kunnossapitopainotteisessa skenaariossa vieraan pääoman määrä on matala, mutta kassavirta myös pysyy matalana tarkastelujakson loppuun asti.

Suljetun sähkönjakeluverkon regulaatio teollisuusympäristössä

Tässä työssä tutkitaan suljetun jakeluverkon regulaatiota yhden suomalaisen teollisuussähköverkon näkökulmasta ja sitä verrataan olemassa olevaan energiaviraston jakeluverkkoja koskevaan säätelymalliin. Työssä tutkitaan verkkoyhtiön kehittämän säätelymallin toimivuutta ja sitä kuinka se täyttää hyvän valvontamallin ominaispiirteet. Tässä työssä ei ole tarkoituksena esittää uutta valvontamallia, vaan tutkia ja arvioida olemassa olevia malleja. Työssä käydään läpi olemassa oleva kolmannen valvontajakson regulaatiomalli sekä muutokset, joita on esitetty tuleville valvontakausille. Työssä taustoitetaan valvontatoimintaa myös yleisen talousteorian ja valvontateorioiden avulla. Tämän taustoituksen avulla tarkastellaan teollisuussähköverkkojen erityisiä ominaisuuksia ja edelleen tutkitun teollisuussähköverkon korkeita käyttövaatimuksia ja syitä tällaisille vaatimuksille. Verkkoyhtiön käyttämä tariffimalli kuvataan myös sen liittyessä sääntelyyn saumattomasti. Työssä todistettiin mallin toimivuus tämän kaltaisessa toimintaympäristössä, jossa käyntivarmuusvaatimus on erittäin korkea. Havainnoissa myös korostuu mallin pitkäjänteisyys ja ennustettavuus. Laskentaesimerkkien avulla arvioidaan liittymähinnoittelun kohtuullisuutta asiakkaalle ja mallin toimivuutta yleensä. Näissä tarkasteluissa havaittiin, että yleisellä tasolla liittymähinnoittelu on kohtuullista asiakkaalle ja se mahdollistaa asiakkaan pääomien tehokkaamman käytön kuin ilman verkkoyhtiötä. Kehittämiskohteina tuodaan esille keskeytyksistä aiheutuvien haittojen käsittely ja se, ettei tällaiseen verkkoympäristöön ole tällä hetkellä toimivaa mittaria, jolla voitaisiin arvioida kuinka hyvin verkkoyhtiö toimii.

Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

Measuring software security from the design of software

The vast majority of our contemporary society owns a mobile phone, which has resulted in a dramatic rise in the amount of networked computers in recent years. Security issues in the computers have followed the same trend and nearly everyone is now affected by such issues. How could the situation be improved? For software engineers, an obvious answer is to build computer software with security in mind. A problem with building software with security is how to define secure software or how to measure security. This thesis divides the problem into three research questions. First, how can we measure the security of software? Second, what types of tools are available for measuring security? And finally, what do these tools reveal about the security of software? Measuring tools of these kind are commonly called metrics. This thesis is focused on the perspective of software engineers in the software design phase. Focus on the design phase means that code level semantics or programming language specifics are not discussed in this work. Organizational policy, management issues or software development process are also out of the scope. The first two research problems were studied using a literature review while the third was studied using a case study research. The target of the case study was a Java based email server called Apache James, which had details from its changelog and security issues available and the source code was accessible. The research revealed that there is a consensus in the terminology on software security. Security verification activities are commonly divided into evaluation and assurance. The focus of this work was in assurance, which means to verify one’s own work. There are 34 metrics available for security measurements, of which five are evaluation metrics and 29 are assurance metrics. We found, however, that the general quality of these metrics was not good. Only three metrics in the design category passed the inspection criteria and could be used in the case study. The metrics claim to give quantitative information on the security of the software, but in practice they were limited to evaluating different versions of the same software. Apart from being relative, the metrics were unable to detect security issues or point out problems in the design. Furthermore, interpreting the metrics’ results was difficult. In conclusion, the general state of the software security metrics leaves a lot to be desired. The metrics studied had both theoretical and practical issues, and are not suitable for daily engineering workflows. The metrics studied provided a basis for further research, since they pointed out areas where the security metrics were necessary to improve whether verification of security from the design was desired.

Supply Chain Adaptation of Finnish Companies in Chinese Institutional Environment

Within the last few decades of operations and supply chain management, the field has seen the rise of so called best practices, methods that will help supply chains obtain their business goals and gain a competitive edge. These methods were thought to be universal. This however is not always the case, as the surrounding business environment could have a significant impact on what will be effective in gaining competitive edge. Contingency theory states that the success of a supply chain is determined by both internal capabilities, as well as external context aligning. This creates a strategic fit, which is a major determinant of success. In order for supply chains to reach this strategic fit, they must adapt. As China has seen rapid growth and over the last few decades become one of the major economies of the world, Western companies have tried to establish themselves there, only to find that the Chinese market is extremely difficult to operate in. The aim of this thesis was to investigate from contingency theory perspective, what are the institutional factors that affect supply chain management of Finnish companies operating in China, and how do Finnish companies adapt their supply chains to better fit the Chinese institutional environment. A theoretical model was created for this thesis, in which supply chains possess resources, which can be combined in a meaningful manner to create capabilities. Both resources and capabilities are affected by the surrounding institutional environment, which forces supply chains to adapt in order to find a better strategic fit. A total of six Finnish managers from three large and three small companies operating in China were interviewed. The results indicated that the Chinese business environment is significantly different, than that of Finland or Western countries in general. Three institutional factors were identified: Confucian though, fast-paced business environment, and managing labor force. These three institutional factors made the relationship and delivery capabilities particularly important, as well as human resources, reputation, physical resources and technological resources. In conclusion, it was discovered that the Chinese institutional environment is heavily affected by Confucian thought, as well as the rapid market growth. These are the two most important institutional factors that shape the Chinese market. If supply chains wish to be successful in China, adaptation regarding these two institutional factors should yield good results.

Supply Chain Adaptation of Finnish Companies in Chinese Institutional Environment

Within the last few decades of operations and supply chain management, the field has seen the rise of so called best practices, methods that will help supply chains obtain their business goals and gain a competitive edge. These methods were thought to be universal. This however is not always the case, as the surrounding business environment could have a significant impact on what will be effective in gaining competitive edge. Contingency theory states that the success of a supply chain is determined by both internal capabilities, as well as external context aligning. This creates a strategic fit, which is a major determinant of success. In order for supply chains to reach this strategic fit, they must adapt. As China has seen rapid growth and over the last few decades become one of the major economies of the world, Western companies have tried to establish themselves there, only to find that the Chinese market is extremely difficult to operate in. The aim of this thesis was to investigate from contingency theory perspective, what are the institutional factors that affect supply chain management of Finnish companies operating in China, and how do Finnish companies adapt their supply chains to better fit the Chinese institutional environment. A theoretical model was created for this thesis, in which supply chains possess resources, which can be combined in a meaningful manner to create capabilities. Both resources and capabilities are affected by the surrounding institutional environment, which forces supply chains to adapt in order to find a better strategic fit. A total of six Finnish managers from three large and three small companies operating in China were interviewed. The results indicated that the Chinese business environment is significantly different, than that of Finland or Western countries in general. Three institutional factors were identified: Confucian though, fast-paced business environment, and managing labor force. These three institutional factors made the relationship and delivery capabilities particularly important, as well as human resources, reputation, physical resources and technological resources. In conclusion, it was discovered that the Chinese institutional environment is heavily affected by Confucian thought, as well as the rapid market growth. These are the two most important institutional factors that shape the Chinese market. If supply chains wish to be successful in China, adaptation regarding these two institutional factors should yield good results.

Wind turbine indirect ice detection and operational analysis

Wind energy is one of the most promising and fast growing sector of energy production. Wind is ecologically friendly and relatively cheap energy resource available for development in practically all corners of the world (where only the wind blows). Today wind power gained broad development in the Scandinavian countries. Three important challenges concerning sustainable development, i.e. energy security, climate change and energy access make a compelling case for large-scale utilization of wind energy. In Finland, according to the climate and energy strategy, accepted in 2008, the total consumption of electricity generated by means of wind farms by 2020, should reach 6 - 7% of total consumption in the country [1]. The main challenges associated with wind energy production are harsh operational conditions that often accompany the turbine operation in the climatic conditions of the north and poor accessibility for maintenance and service. One of the major problems that require a solution is the icing of turbine structures. Icing reduces the performance of wind turbines, which in the conditions of a long cold period, can significantly affect the reliability of power supply. In order to predict and control power performance, the process of ice accretion has to be carefully tracked. There are two ways to detect icing – directly or indirectly. The first way applies to the special ice detection instruments. The second one is using indirect characteristics of turbine performance. One of such indirect methods for ice detection and power loss estimation has been proposed and used in this paper. The results were compared to the results directly gained from the ice sensors. The data used was measured in Muukko wind farm, southeast Finland during a project 'Wind power in cold climate and complex terrain'. The project was carried out in 9/2013 - 8/2015 with the partners Lappeenranta university of technology, Alstom renovables España S.L., TuuliMuukko, and TuuliSaimaa.

DFMA- Analysis and Aspects of Applying Internet Based Collaborative Design for Axial Eccentric Oil-Pump Design

The integrated system of design for manufacturing and assembly (DFMA) and internet based collaborative design are presented to support product design, manufacturing process, and assembly planning for axial eccentric oil-pump design. The presented system manages and schedules group oriented collaborative activities. The design guidelines of internet based collaborative design & DFMA are expressed. The components and the manufacturing stages of axial eccentric oil-pump are expressed in detail. The file formats of the presented system include the data types of collaborative design of the product, assembly design, assembly planning and assembly system design. Product design and assembly planning can be operated synchronously and intelligently and they are integrated under the condition of internet based collaborative design and DFMA. The technologies of collaborative modelling, collaborative manufacturing, and internet based collaborative assembly for the specific pump construction are developed. A seven-security level is presented to ensure the security of the internet based collaborative design system.

The evolution ofRussian power industry from monopoly to market operation

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Vendor Managed Inventory: the Critical Success Factors from the Manufacturer Point of View

Yritykset ovat pakotettuja erilaisiin yhteistyömuotoihin pärjätäkseen kiristyvässä kilpailussa. Yhteistyösuhteet kulkevat eri nimillä riippuen teollisuuden alasta ja siitä, missä kohtaa toimitusketjua ne toteutuvat, mutta periaatteessa kaikki pohjautuvat samaan ideaan kuin Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI); varastoon jakysyntään liittyvä tieto jaetaan toimitusketjun eri osapuolien kesken, jotta tuotanto, jakelu ja varastonhallinta olisi mahdollista optimoida. Vendor Managed Inventory on ideana yksinkertainen, mutta vaatii onnistuakseen paljon. Perusolettamus on, että toimittajan on kyettävä hallinnoimaan asiakkaan varastoa paremmin kuin asiakas itse. Tämä ei kuitenkaan ole mahdollista ilman riittävää yhteistyötä, oikeanlaista informaatiota tai sopivia tuoteominaisuuksia. Tämän työn tarkoitus on esitellä kriittiset menestystekijät valmistajan kannalta, kun näkyvyys todelliseen kysyntään on heikko ja kyseessäolevat tuotteet ovat ominaisuuksiltaan toimintamalliin huonosti soveltuvia. VMItoimintamallin soveltuvuus matkapuhelimia valmistavan yrityksen liiketoimintaan, sekä sen vaikutus asiakasyhteistyöhön, kannattavuuteen ja toiminnan tehostamiseen on myös tutkittu.

Distributed Energy Production in the North-West Region of Russia

The energy system of Russia is the world's fourth largest measured by installed power. The largest are that of the the United States of America, China and Japan. After 1990, the electricity consumption decreased as a result of the Russian industry crisis. The vivid economic growth during the latest few years explains the new increase in the demand for energy resources within the State. In 2005 the consumption of electricity achieved the maximum level of 1990 and continues to growth. In the 1980's, the renewal of power facilities was already very slow and practically stopped in the 1990's. At present, the energy system can be very much characterized as outdated, inefficient and uneconomic because of the old equipment, non-effective structure and large losses in the transmission lines. The aim of Russia's energy reform, which was started in 2001, is to achieve a market based energy policy by 2011. This would thus remove the significantly state-controlled monopoly in Russia's energy policy. The reform will stimulateto decrease losses, improve the energy system and employ energy-saving technologies. The Russian energy system today is still based on the use of fossil fuels, and it almost totally ignores the efficient use of renewable sources such as wind, solar, small hydro and biomass, despite of their significant resources in Russia. The main target of this project is to consider opportunities to apply renewable energy production in the North-West Federal Region of Russia to partly solve the above mentioned problems in the energy system.

Item master management in the engineer-to-order supply chain

Diplomityöntavoitteena on tutkia, kuinka nimiketiedon hallinnalla voidaan parantaa kustannustehokkuutta projektiohjautuvassa toimitusketjussa. Työn kohdeyritys on Konecranes Oyj:n tytäryhtiö Konecranes Heavy Lifting Oy. Nimiketiedon hallinta liittyy läheisesti tuotetiedon hallintaan. Teoriaosassa käsitellään toimitusketjuympäristön tekijöitä, modulaarisuuden ja asiakaskohtaisuuden ongelmallisuutta sekä informaatiovirran vaikutuksia eri toiminnoissa. Yritysosassa vertaillaan konsernitason kahta liiketoiminta-aluetta strategiavalintojen, tuotteiden modulaarisuuden sekä tilaus-toimitusprosessissa liikkuvan nimikeinformaation perusteella. Diplomityön tuloksena annetaan suuntaviivat; nimikemassan eheytykseen, strategisten nimikkeiden tunnistamiseen ja määrittämiseen, nimikkeiden hallintaan sekä master-datan sijoittamiseen tietojärjestelmäympäristöön.

Investment Determinants and Future Shape of Russia's Power Generation

The reformation of power sector is still in the process of development. The present day situation in Russian electricity power market ischaracterized as transitional period: competitive electricity market is forming, new companies are being created and the power of government regulation is decreasing. The main aim of the reformation is to attract much-needed private investments to the power sector. The electricity consumption increases very rapidly and power sector has to cope with high demand. The goal of this master's thesis is to analyze the nowadays situation in Russian power sector, such as generation structure, condition of electricity networks, electricity price formation for end-users, shape of fuel sector and investments risks and attraction.The final result of this work is creation of scenario of Russian power sector future shape and analysis of the present day situation.