Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

Chemical changes in biomass during torrefaction

Torrefaction is moderate thermal treatment (~200-300 °C) of biomass in an inert atmosphere. The torrefied fuel offers advantages to traditional biomass, such as higher heating value, reduced hydrophilic nature, increased its resistance to biological decay, and improved grindability. These factors could, for instance, lead to better handling and storage of biomass and increased use of biomass in pulverized combustors. In this work, we look at several aspects of changes in the biomass during torrefaction. We investigate the fate of carboxylic groups during torrefaction and its dependency to equilibrium moisture content. The changes in the wood components including carbohydrates, lignin, extractable materials and ashforming matters are also studied. And at last, the effect of K on torrefaction is investigated and then modeled. In biomass, carboxylic sites are partially responsible for its hydrophilic characteristic. These sites are degraded to varying extents during torrefaction. In this work, methylene blue sorption and potentiometric titration were applied to measure the concentration of carboxylic groups in torrefied spruce wood. The results from both methods were applicable and the values agreed well. A decrease in the equilibrium moisture content at different humidity was also measured for the torrefied wood samples, which is in good agreement with the decrease in carboxylic group contents. Thus, both methods offer a means of directly measuring the decomposition of carboxylic groups in biomass during torrefaction as a valuable parameter in evaluating the extent of torrefaction. This provides new information to the chemical changes occurring during torrefaction. The effect of torrefaction temperature on the chemistry of birch wood was investigated. The samples were from a pilot plant at Energy research Center of the Netherlands (ECN). And in that way they were representative of industrially produced samples. Sugar analysis was applied to analyze the hemicellulose and cellulose content during torrefaction. The results show a significant degradation of hemicellulose already at 240 °C, while cellulose degradation becomes significant above 270 °C torrefaction. Several methods including Klason lignin method, solid state NMR and Py-GC-MS analyses were applied to measure the changes in lignin during torrefaction. The changes in the ratio of phenyl, guaiacyl and syringyl units show that lignin degrades already at 240 °C to a small extent. To investigate the changes in the extractives from acetone extraction during torrefaction, gravimetric method, HP-SEC and GC-FID followed by GC-MS analysis were performed. The content of acetone-extractable material increases already at 240 °C torrefaction through the degradation of carbohydrate and lignin. The molecular weight of the acetone-extractable material decreases with increasing the torrefaction temperature. The formation of some valuable materials like syringaresinol or vanillin is also observed which is important from biorefinery perspective. To investigate the change in the chemical association of ash-forming elements in birch wood during torrefaction, chemical fractionation was performed on the original and torrefied birch samples. These results give a first understanding of the changes in the association of ashforming elements during torrefaction. The most significant changes can be seen in the distribution of calcium, magnesium and manganese, with some change in water solubility seen in potassium. These changes may in part be due to the destruction of carboxylic groups. In addition to some changes in water and acid solubility of phosphorous, a clear decrease in the concentration of both chlorine and sulfur was observed. This would be a significant additional benefit for the combustion of torrefied biomass. Another objective of this work is studying the impact of organically bound K, Na, Ca and Mn on mass loss of biomass during torrefaction. These elements were of interest because they have been shown to be catalytically active in solid fuels during pyrolysis and/or gasification. The biomasses were first acid washed to remove the ash-forming matters and then organic sites were doped with K, Na, Ca or Mn. The results show that K and Na bound to organic sites can significantly increase the mass loss during torrefaction. It is also seen that Mn bound to organic sites increases the mass loss and Ca addition does not influence the mass loss rate on torrefaction. This increase in mass loss during torrefaction with alkali addition is unlike what has been found in the case of pyrolysis where alkali addition resulted in a reduced mass loss. These results are important for the future operation of torrefaction plants, which will likely be designed to handle various biomasses with significantly different contents of K. The results imply that shorter retention times are possible for high K-containing biomasses. The mass loss of spruce wood with different content of K was modeled using a two-step reaction model based on four kinetic rate constants. The results show that it is possible to model the mass loss of spruce wood doped with different levels of K using the same activation energies but different pre-exponential factors for the rate constants. Three of the pre-exponential factors increased linearly with increasing K content, while one of the preexponential factors decreased with increasing K content. Therefore, a new torrefaction model was formulated using the hemicellulose and cellulose content and K content. The new torrefaction model was validated against the mass loss during the torrefaction of aspen, miscanthus, straw and bark. There is good agreement between the model and the experimental data for the other biomasses, except bark. For bark, the mass loss of acetone extractable material is also needed to be taken into account. The new model can describe the kinetics of mass loss during torrefaction of different types of biomass. This is important for considering fuel flexibility in torrefaction plants.

Internal Changes in International New Ventures During Initial Internationalization: Finnish SMEs Operating in Dynamic High-tech Industries

The purpose of this qualitative research is to study how international new ventures change internally during initial internationalization. Based on the analysis of seven INV firms, a framework illustrating this change process, will be developed. This research will also develop earlier theories, and create a solid combination of existing theories to explain the phenomenon. INV firms internationalize more rapidly and aggressively than traditional MNEs. At the same, external and internal drivers cause changes in INVs culture, resources, capabilities, strategic management, and output decisions inside the company. Organizational learning and resource acquisition through international business networks explain how INVs are able to cope with the dynamic high-technology industry and be able to adapt. Internationalization of INVs proceeds through several phases, which may be gone through rapidly due to the network effects and INVs’ special characteristics. The results of this research revealed that INVs internal change process proceeds through four phases; pre-incorporation phase, product development phase, internationalization and growth phase, and maturation phase. INVs culture, resources, capabilities, strategic management, and outputs change significantly during initial internationalization, and INVs develop from small start-ups into fully established companies.