Simulation of the Interaction Mean Free Path between Neutrons and TRISO Particles

The interaction mean free path between neutrons and TRISO particles is simulated using scripts written in MATLAB to solve the increasing error present with an increase in the packing factor in the reactor physics code Serpent. Their movement is tracked both in an unbounded and in a bounded space. Their track is calculated, depending on the program, linearly directly using the position vectors of the neutrons and the surface equations of all the fuel particles; by dividing the space in multiple subspaces, each of which contain a fraction of the total number of particles, and choosing the particles from those subspaces through which the neutron passes through; or by choosing the particles that lie within an infinite cylinder formed on the movement axis of the neutron. The estimate from the current analytical model, based on an exponential distribution, for the mean free path, utilized by Serpent, is used as a reference result. The results from the implicit model in Serpent imply a too long mean free path with high packing factors. The received results support this observation by producing, with a packing factor of 17 %, approximately 2.46 % shorter mean free path compared to the reference model. This is supported by the packing factor experienced by the neutron, the simulation of which resulted in a 17.29 % packing factor. It was also observed that the neutrons leaving from the surfaces of the fuel particles, in contrast to those starting inside the moderator, do not follow the exponential distribution. The current model, as it is, is thus not valid in the determination of the free path lengths of the neutrons.

Kognitiiviset kartat operatiivisen ketjuliiketoimintajohtamisen taustalla

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, millaiset ajattelumallit korostuvat menestyksekkäässä ketjuliiketoimintajohtamisessa tasapainotetun tuloskortin eri näkökulmien osalta. Tutkimuskohteena olivat kuusi päivittäistavarakaupan ketjuliiketoiminnan asiakasrajapinnassa työskentelevää Osuuskauppa Keskimaan S-marketpäällikköä. Ajattelua tutkittiin kognitiivisesta näkökulmasta. Tutkimus toteutettiin laadullista tutkimusmenetelmää, kognitiivista kartoitusta hyödyntäen. Karttojen rakentamiseen käytetty tutkimusaineisto hankittiin puolistrukturoitujen teemahaastattelujen avulla. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen viitekehys rakennettiin mielen sisäisten skeemojen ja kognitiivisten karttojen kautta päätöksenteonteorioihin. Tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella asiakasnäkökulmassa menestyminen edellyttää liikeideaa kunnioittavaa ja konseptin tinkimättömään toteuttamiseen keskittyvää johtamisajattelua. Henkilöstönäkökulmassa menestyminen korostaa kokonaisvaltaisen esimiestyön ja moniulotteisten vuorovaikutussuhteiden merkitystä, joiden ilmeneminen on kognitiivisia rakenteita ja prosesseja monimuotoisempi kokonaisuus. Prosessinäkökulmassa menestyminen edellyttää selkeiden ohjeiden vaalimiseen ja niiden johtamiseen keskittyvää ajattelutapaa. Menestys talousnäkökulmassa kokoaa tuloskortin eri näkökulmat yhteen, korostaen kokonaisuuden hahmottamisen tärkeyttä sekä toimialan ja ketjuliiketoiminnan business-logiikan ymmärtämisen merkitystä osana operatiivista ketjuliiketoimintajohtamista. Lisäksi tutkimus vahvistaa aiempien tutkimustulosten mukaisesti, että kognitiivisen kartan rikkaudella, yhtenäisyydellä, johdonmukaisuudella, kartan sisältämien suorituskykymittareihin viittaavien mainintojen määrällä sekä esimiehen kokemalla vaikutusmahdollisuudella on yhteys liiketoimintamenestyksen kanssa. Kokonaisuutena päivittäistavarakaupan ketjuliiketoiminnan menestyksekkäässä johtamisessa näyttää korostuvan rationaalisuutta ja loogisuutta korostava ajattelutapa, joka tukeutuu vahvasti ketjuliiketoiminnan perusprosesseihin.

Simulating the dynamics of silver market using computational market dynamics

Traditional econometric approaches in modeling the dynamics of equity and commodity markets, have, made great progress in the past decades. However, they assume rationality among the economic agents and and do not capture the dynamics that produce extreme events (black swans), due to deviation from the rationality assumption. The purpose of this study is to simulate the dynamics of silver markets by using the novel computational market dynamics approach. To this end, the daily data from the period of 1st March 2000 to 1st March 2013 of closing prices of spot silver prices has been simulated with the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale(JCM) model. The Maximum Likelihood approach has been employed to calibrate the acquired data with JCM. Statistical analysis of the simulated series with respect to the actual one has been conducted to evaluate model performance. The model captures the animal spirits dynamics present in the data under evaluation well.

Lauseen aspektin ilmaiseminen suomen kielessä. Tutkimus olla-, tehdä- ja tulla-verbillisistä tekstilauseista käyttökonteksteissaan

Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan lauseen aspektin ilmaisemista suomen kielessä. Aspektia käsitellään merkityskategoriana, joka osoittaa lauseen kuvaaman asiaintilan ajallisen keston, ja perustavanlaatuisena aspektuaalisena erontekona pidetään rajattuuden ja rajaamattomuuden vastakohtaisuutta. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään, millä perusteella lauseet saavat joko rajatun tai rajaamattoman aspektitulkinnan ja miten konteksti vaikuttaa tähän tulkintaan. Lauseen kontekstina käsitellään kielellistä kontekstia eli tekstiä. Työ on aineistopohjainen tutkimus kirjoitetusta nykysuomesta, ja tarkastelun kohteena on sanomalehtiteksteistä koottu lauseaineisto. Lauseiden pääverbit ovat olla, tehdä ja tulla. Aineistosta on mahdollista esittää sekä kvalitatiivisia että kvantitatiivisia huomioita. Tutkimuksen teoreettisen ja metodologisen taustan muodostavat eräiden kognitiivisen kielitieteen suuntausten kuvauskäsitteet ja -metodit sekä fennistinen aspektin kuvaamisen perinne. Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan kahta fennistiikassa esitettyä tapaa määritellä lauseen aspektimerkitys ja osoitetaan, että ne ovat toisiaan täydentäviä. Molemmat lähestymistavat huomioon ottamalla on siis mahdollista kuvata lauseen aspektimerkityksen määräytyminen täsmällisemmin kuin vain yhteen kuvaustapaan keskittymällä. Lisäksi osoitetaan, että keskeisinä aspektin ilmaisemisen keinoina pidetyt keston ja toistuvuuden adverbiaalit jäävät aineistossa marginaalisiksi. Ajankohdan adverbiaaleja puolestaan käsitellään aiemmasta tutkimuksesta poiketen rajattuina tarkastelunäkökulmina kuvattuun asiaintilaan, ja ne toimivat tässä tehtävässä liittyessään aspektiltaan rajaamattomiin lauseisiin. Lisäksi tutkimus osoittaa, että aspektin ilmaisemisen kerroksellisuutta voidaan aspektin ilmaisemiseen osallistuvien lauseenjäsenten kerrostumisen ohella tarkastella lausekokonaisuuden eri semanttisten tasojen kerrostumisena. Lausetta laajemman kontekstin vaikutusta aspektitulkintaan ei ole aiemmin tutkittu suomen kielessä. Tutkimus osoittaa, että aspektiltaan monitulkintaisten lauseiden konteksti voi selventää tulkinnan tai mahdollistaa samanaikaisesti vaihtoehtoiset tulkinnat. Lisäksi erilaisten lauseenulkoisten rajan ilmausten avulla on mahdollista osoittaa lauseen aspektin rajattuutta siinä tapauksessa, että lause muutoin ymmärrettäisiin aspektiltaan rajaamattomaksi.

Tuottavuuden, vaikuttavuuden ja kustannusvaikuttavuuden arviointi alueellisesti integroiduissa sosiaali- ja terveyspalveluissa – palvelujen käyttöön perustuva malli ja esimerkkejä

Yli puolet kuntien vuosibudjeteista kuluu sosiaali- ja terveyspalveluihin. Jatkossa väestö ikääntyy ja huoltosuhteen muutos tulee niukentamaan kuntien resursseja ja lisäämään palvelujen tarvetta. Näin ollen vaikuttavien ja kustannustehokkaiden ratkaisumallien luominen on ensiarvoisen tärkeää. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on rakentaa malli, jota voidaan hyödyntää tuottavuuden, vaikuttavuuden ja kustannusvaikuttavuuden jatkuvassa seurannassa alueellisissa sosiaali- ja terveyspalveluissa ja testata mallia esimerkkitapauksilla. Pääpaino on vaikuttavuudessa ja kustannusvaikuttavuudessa. Aiemman tutkimuksen perusteella tuottavuuden, vaikuttavuuden ja kustannusvaikuttavuuden mittaamiseen on useita lähestymistapoja. Tässä tutkimuksessa tuottavuutta arvioidaan panosten ja tuotosten suhteella, vaikuttavuutta palvelujen käytöllä ja kustannusvaikuttavuutta palvelujen käytön kustannuksilla. Kirjallisuudesta nousee esille selkeä tarve yli perinteisten organisaatiorajojen menevälle jatkuvalle vaikuttavuuden seurannalle. Aikaisempi tutkimus kattaa kertaluontoisia selvityksiä, joissa usein mittarit ovat operatiivisella tasolla, toimialasidonnaisia tai vaikeasti mitattavissa. Tutkimus on suunnittelutiedettä. Tutkimuksen lopputuloksena syntyy sosiaali- ja terveyspalvelujen käyttömalli (sote-palvelujen käyttömalli), jota varten toteutetaan tietokanta ja raportointikerros. Sote-palvelujen käyttömallia testataan tässä tutkimuksessa kolmella eri organisaatioyksiköllä ja asiakasryhmällä, jotka ovat strategisesti merkittäviä tutkittavalle organisaatiolle ja asiakasryhmiin on kohdennettu selkeä kehittämistoimenpide (kuntoutukseen panostaminen ja vammaisten sekä vanhusten laitoshoidon purku). Sote-palvelujen käyttömalli tuottaa tietoa kehittämistoimenpiteiden tuottavuudesta, vaikuttavuudesta ja kustannusvaikuttavuudesta. Sote-palvelujen käyttömallin todetaan soveltuvan tutkittavaan organisaatioon ja sote-palvelujen käyttömalli on sielläjatkuvassa käytössä. Sote-palvelujen käyttömalli on siirrettävissä myös muihin soteorganisaatioihin ja laajennettavissa myös muihin sosiaali- ja terveyspalveluihin ja niitä lähellä oleviin palveluihin.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Examining human-centered design practice in the mobile apps era

Human-Centered Design (HCD) is a well-recognized approach to the design of interactive computing systems that supports everyday and professional lives of people. To that end, the HCD approach put central emphasis on the explicit understanding of users and context of use by involving users throughout the entire design and development process. With mobile computing, the diversity of users as well as the variety in the spatial, temporal, and social settings of the context of use has notably expanded, which affect the effort of interaction designers to understand users and context of use. The emergence of the mobile apps era in 2008 as a result of structural changes in the mobile industry and the profound enhanced capabilities of mobile devices, further intensify the embeddedness of technology in the daily life of people and the challenges that interaction designers face to cost-efficiently understand users and context of use. Supporting interaction designers in this challenge requires understanding of their existing practice, rationality, and work environment. The main objective of this dissertation is to contribute to interaction design theories by generating understanding on the HCD practice of mobile systems in the mobile apps era, as well as to explain the rationality of interaction designers in attending to users and context of use. To achieve that, a literature study is carried out, followed by a mixed-methods research that combines multiple qualitative interview studies and a quantitative questionnaire study. The dissertation contributes new insights regarding the evolving HCD practice at an important time of transition from stationary computing to mobile computing. Firstly, a gap is identified between interaction design as practiced in research and in the industry regarding the involvement of users in context; whereas the utilization of field evaluations, i.e. in real-life environments, has become more common in academic projects, interaction designers in the industry still rely, by large, on lab evaluations. Secondly, the findings indicate on new aspects that can explain this gap and the rationality of interaction designers in the industry in attending to users and context; essentially, the professional-client relationship was found to inhibit the involvement of users, while the mental distance between practitioners and users as well as the perceived innovativeness of the designed system are suggested in explaining the inclination to study users in situ. Thirdly, the research contributes the first explanatory model on the relation between the organizational context and HCD; essentially, innovation-focused organizational strategies greatly affect the cost-effective usage of data on users and context of use. Last, the findings suggest a change in the nature of HCD in the mobile apps era, at least with universal consumer systems; evidently, the central attention on the explicit understanding of users and context of use shifts from an early requirements phase and continual activities during design and development to follow-up activities. That is, the main effort to understand users is by collecting data on their actual usage of the system, either before or after the system is deployed. The findings inform both researchers and practitioners in interaction design. In particular, the dissertation suggest on action research as a useful approach to support interaction designers and further inform theories on interaction design. With regard to the interaction design practice, the dissertation highlights strategies that encourage a more cost-effective user- and context-informed interaction design process. With the continual embeddedness of computing into people’s life, e.g. with wearable devices and connected car systems, the dissertation provides a timely and valuable view on the evolving humancentered design.