Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

Communicative Purposes of Press Releases Announcing Reduction in Workforce

Tämä tutkielma käsittelee kaupallisten yhtiöiden julkaisemia lehdistötiedotteita, joissa ilmoitetaan henkilöstövähennyksistä. Erityisenä tutkimuskohteena ovat lehdistötiedotteiden informatiiviset ja promotionaaliset päämäärät ja tarkoitukset sekä näiden päämäärien ja tarkoitusten ilmentyminen tekstin retorisen rakenteen, valittujen retoristen strategioiden sekä leksikaalisten ja kieliopillisten valintojen kautta. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu 50 englanninkielisestä lehdistötiedotteesta, jotka sisältävät ilmoituksen henkilöstövähennyksistä. Lehdistötiedotteet kerättiin yritysten verkkosivuilta. Tutkimuksen teoreettisena viitekehityksenä toimivat soveltavan kielentutkimuksen alalla erityisesti ammattikielentutkimuksessa (ESP, English for Specific Purposes) laajalti käytetty Swalesin (1990) tekstilajia (genre) koskeva määritelmää ja Bhatian (1993) kehittämä geneerisen analyysin malli. Ennen aineiston kielitieteellistä analysointia tutkimuksessa perehdyttiin Bhatian (1993) mallin mukaisesti lehdistötiedotteiden historiaan, kohdeyleisöihin, diskurssiyhteisöön ja sen tuottamiin muihin tekstilajeihin, aikaisempiin lehdistotiedotteita käsitteleviin kielitieteellisiin tutkimuksiin sekä erityisesti yritysten henkilövähennyksiin liittyvään tilannekontekstiin. Kielitieteellisessä analyysissä tutkittavista teksteistä tunnistettiin kahdeksan retorista vaihetta (move), jotka olivat tyypillisiä tutkituille teksteille. Kunkin retorisen vaiheen yksittäiset ilmentymät koottiin yhteen erillisiksi aineistoiksi, joista pyrittiin tunnistamaan kullekin vaiheelle tyypilliset retoriset strategiat sekä toistuvat leksikaaliset ja kieliopilliset valinnat. Tutkimuksessa todettiin, että vaikka tutkittujen lehdistötiedotteiden pääasiallinen tarkoitus oli yhtiön toiminnasta tiedottaminen, niillä oli myös promotionaalinen päämäärä, joka ilmeni mm. pyrkimyksenä välittää yhtiöstä mahdollisimman positiivinen kuva eri kohdeyleisöille, erityisesti sijoittajille. Tämän positiivisen kuvan välittämiseen käytettyjä keinoja olivat mm. odotettavissa olevien saavutusten korostaminen, ulkoisten tekijöiden nimeäminen nykyisen tilanteen aiheuttajaksi, passiivin käyttö sekä erilaiset yrityksen julkisen kuvan säilyttämiseen pyrkivät (face-saving) strategiat.

Development of a process for the direct synthesis of hydrogen peroxide in a novel microstructured reactor

Microreactors have proven to be versatile tools for process intensification. Over recent decades, they have increasingly been used for product and process development in chemical industries. Enhanced heat and mass transfer in the reactors due to the extremely high surfacearea- to-volume ratio and interfacial area allow chemical processes to be operated at extreme conditions. Safety is improved by the small holdup volume of the reactors and effective control of pressure and temperature. Hydrogen peroxide is a powerful green oxidant that is used in a wide range of industries. Reduction and auto-oxidation of anthraquinones is currently the main process for hydrogen peroxide production. Direct synthesis is a green alternative and has potential for on-site production. However, there are two limitations: safety concerns because of the explosive gas mixture produced and low selectivity of the process. The aim of this thesis was to develop a process for direct synthesis of hydrogen peroxide utilizing microreactor technology. Experimental and numerical approaches were applied for development of the microreactor. Development of a novel microreactor was commenced by studying the hydrodynamics and mass transfer in prototype microreactor plates. The prototypes were designed and fabricated with the assistance of CFD modeling to optimize the shape and size of the microstructure. Empirical correlations for the mass transfer coefficient were derived. The pressure drop in micro T-mixers was investigated experimentally and numerically. Correlations describing the friction factor for different flow regimes were developed and predicted values were in good agreement with experimental results. Experimental studies were conducted to develop a highly active and selective catalyst with a proper form for the microreactor. Pd catalysts supported on activated carbon cloths were prepared by different treatments during the catalyst preparation. A variety of characterization methods were used for catalyst investigation. The surface chemistry of the support and the oxidation state of the metallic phase in the catalyst play important roles in catalyst activity and selectivity for the direct synthesis. The direct synthesis of hydrogen peroxide was investigated in a bench-scale continuous process using the novel microreactor developed. The microreactor was fabricated based on the hydrodynamic and mass transfer studies and provided a high interfacial area and high mass transfer coefficient. The catalysts were prepared under optimum treatment conditions. The direct synthesis was conducted at various conditions. The thesis represents a step towards a commercially viable direct synthesis. The focus is on the two main challenges: mitigating the safety problem by utilization of microprocess technology and improving the selectivity by catalyst development.

Biovoimalaitoksen energiatehokkuuden parantaminen ja osakuorma-ajon optimointi

Energiatehokkuus on nykyaikana yksi tärkeimmistä energiataloudellisista tekijöistä voimalaitosten sähköntuotannossa. Varsinkin yhteistuotantolaitoksissa joissa sähkö on lämpöenergian lisänä saatava sivutuote, sähkön tuotannon optimointi voi merkitä laitostalouden ja yrityksen kannalta huomattavia lisätuloja tai -säästöjä. Kaukaan Voima Oy:n biovoimalaitos on vuonna 2009 kaupalliseen käyttöön valmistunut moderni yhteistuotantolaitos, joka sijaitsee Lappeenrannassa UPM Kaukas sellutehtaan tehdasalueella. Voimalaitos tuottaa kaukolämpöä ja sähköä Lappeenrannan kaupungille sekä prosessihöyryä ja sähköä UPM Kaukaan tehtaille. Tämän työn tavoitteena on tarkastella biovoimalaitoksen omakäyttösähkön kulutusta kuukausitasolla verrattuna laitoksella tuotettavan höyryn määrään sekä etsiä voimalaitokselta kohteita, joiden omakäyttösähkön kulutusta voidaan vähentää vaikuttamatta höyryntuotantoon ja näin parantaa laitoksen energiatehokkuutta ja hyötysuhdetta. Työ rajataan käsittelemään voimalaitoksen apulaitteiden ja -järjestelmien omakäyttösähkön kulutusta. Työssä tarkastellaan vuodenaikojen vaihtelun ja kaukolämmön sekä prosessihöyryn tarpeen muutoksen vaikutusta voimalaitoksen ajomalliin sekä höyryntuotannon ja omakäyttösähkön kulutuksen suhteisiin. Työssä esiin nousseiden kohteiden potentiaaliset sähköenergian säästöt ovat noin 2500 MWh vuodessa joka tarkoittaa keskimäärin 3,7 % vähennystä voimalaitoksen kuukausittaiseen omakäyttösähkön kulutukseen. Kohteet eivät käytännössä vaadi minkaanlaista investointirahaa, vaan uusia ajojärjestelyitä. Keskeisimmiksi säästökohteiksi valikoitui laitoksen pumppausjärjestelmien paineenalennukset.

Towards sustainable Iron- and steelmaking with economic optimization

The iron and steelmaking industry is among the major contributors to the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide in the world. The rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and the global concern about the greenhouse effect and climate change have brought about considerable investigations on how to reduce the energy intensity and CO2 emissions of this industrial sector. In this thesis the problem is tackled by mathematical modeling and optimization using three different approaches. The possibility to use biomass in the integrated steel plant, particularly as an auxiliary reductant in the blast furnace, is investigated. By pre-processing the biomass its heating value and carbon content can be increased at the same time as the oxygen content is decreased. As the compression strength of the preprocessed biomass is lower than that of coke, it is not suitable for replacing a major part of the coke in the blast furnace burden. Therefore the biomass is assumed to be injected at the tuyere level of the blast furnace. Carbon capture and storage is, nowadays, mostly associated with power plants but it can also be used to reduce the CO2 emissions of an integrated steel plant. In the case of a blast furnace, the effect of CCS can be further increased by recycling the carbon dioxide stripped top gas back into the process. However, this affects the economy of the integrated steel plant, as the amount of top gases available, e.g., for power and heat production is decreased. High quality raw materials are a prerequisite for smooth blast furnace operation. High quality coal is especially needed to produce coke with sufficient properties to ensure proper gas permeability and smooth burden descent. Lower quality coals as well as natural gas, which some countries have in great volumes, can be utilized with various direct and smelting reduction processes. The DRI produced with a direct reduction process can be utilized as a feed material for blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace. The liquid hot metal from a smelting reduction process can in turn be used in basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace. The unit sizes and investment costs of an alternative ironmaking process are also lower than those of a blast furnace. In this study, the economy of an integrated steel plant is investigated by simulation and optimization. The studied system consists of linearly described unit processes from coke plant to steel making units, with a more detailed thermodynamical model of the blast furnace. The results from the blast furnace operation with biomass injection revealed the importance of proper pre-processing of the raw biomass as the composition of the biomass as well as the heating value and the yield are all affected by the pyrolysis temperature. As for recycling of CO2 stripped blast furnace top gas, substantial reductions in the emission rates are achieved if the stripped CO2 can be stored. However, the optimal recycling degree together with other operation conditions is heavily dependent on the cost structure of CO2 emissions and stripping/storage. The economical feasibility related to the use of DRI in the blast furnace depends on the price ratio between the DRI pellets and the BF pellets. The high amount of energy needed in the rotary hearth furnace to reduce the iron ore leads to increased CO2 emissions.

Wind Turbine Direct-Drive Permanent-Magnet Generator with Direct Liquid Cooling for Mass Reduction

Today’s electrical machine technology allows increasing the wind turbine output power by an order of magnitude from the technology that existed only ten years ago. However, it is sometimes argued that high-power direct-drive wind turbine generators will prove to be of limited practical importance because of their relatively large size and weight. The limited space for the generator in a wind turbine application together with the growing use of wind energy pose a challenge for the design engineers who are trying to increase torque without making the generator larger. When it comes to high torque density, the limiting factor in every electrical machine is heat, and if the electrical machine parts exceed their maximum allowable continuous operating temperature, even for a short time, they can suffer permanent damage. Therefore, highly efficient thermal design or cooling methods is needed. One of the promising solutions to enhance heat transfer performances of high-power, low-speed electrical machines is the direct cooling of the windings. This doctoral dissertation proposes a rotor-surface-magnet synchronous generator with a fractional slot nonoverlapping stator winding made of hollow conductors, through which liquid coolant can be passed directly during the application of current in order to increase the convective heat transfer capabilities and reduce the generator mass. This doctoral dissertation focuses on the electromagnetic design of a liquid-cooled direct-drive permanent-magnet synchronous generator (LC DD-PMSG) for a directdrive wind turbine application. The analytical calculation of the magnetic field distribution is carried out with the ambition of fast and accurate predicting of the main dimensions of the machine and especially the thickness of the permanent magnets; the generator electromagnetic parameters as well as the design optimization. The focus is on the generator design with a fractional slot non-overlapping winding placed into open stator slots. This is an a priori selection to guarantee easy manufacturing of the LC winding. A thermal analysis of the LC DD-PMSG based on a lumped parameter thermal model takes place with the ambition of evaluating the generator thermal performance. The thermal model was adapted to take into account the uneven copper loss distribution resulting from the skin effect as well as the effect of temperature on the copper winding resistance and the thermophysical properties of the coolant. The developed lumpedparameter thermal model and the analytical calculation of the magnetic field distribution can both be integrated with the presented algorithm to optimize an LC DD-PMSG design. Based on an instrumented small prototype with liquid-cooled tooth-coils, the following targets have been achieved: experimental determination of the performance of the direct liquid cooling of the stator winding and validating the temperatures predicted by an analytical thermal model; proving the feasibility of manufacturing the liquid-cooled tooth-coil winding; moreover, demonstration of the objectives of the project to potential customers.