Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Tietämyksenhallinta kirurgiassa

Tässä kandidaatin työssä tavoitteena oli selvittää tietämyksenhallinnan ongelmia Etelä-Karjalan keskussairaalan kirurgisella osastolla empiirisen case-tutkimuksen avulla. Tutkimuksessa haastateltiin kolmea Etelä-Karjalan keskussairaalan kirurgia, joiden vastausten avulla pyrittiin luomaan ankkuroitua teoria-tutkimusmenetelmää hyväksi käyttäen keskeisimpiä vastauksia tutkimusongelmiin. Kirurgisen osaston tietämyksenhallinnan ongelmat perustuivat pääosin tietojärjestelmien hajanaisuuteen, hitauteen sekä käyttäjäystävällisyyteen. Lisäksi hiljaisen tiedon vaikuttavuus tietämyksenhallinnassa nähtiin ongelmana, koska se lisää epävarmuutta hoitopäätöksissä sekä uuden tiedon luomisessa. Tuloksista voidaan todeta, että tietojärjestelmiä täytyisi parantaa lääkäreiden työn nopeuttamiseksi sekä laadun parantamiseksi. Lisäksi työssä tehtiin kirjallisuuskatsaus tietämyksenhallinnasta terveydenhuollon näkökulmasta.

Ohjaus ja oppilaiden urapohdinta. Turkulaisten peruskoulun päättöluokkalaisten ohjauskokemukset urapohdinnan selittäjinä

Tutkimuksessa selvitetään turkulaisten peruskoulun päättöluokkalaisten urapohdintaeroja ja sitä, miten oppilaiden arviot opettajien ja oppilaanohjaajien toteuttamasta ohjauksesta ovat yhteydessä heidän urapohdintaansa. Tutkimuksen kohdejoukkona ovat ensi sijassa yleisopetusta antavien suomenkielisten peruskoulujen yhdeksäsluokkalaiset. Tutkimus on poikkileikkaustutkimus, jossa tarkastellaan oppilaiden kokemuksia ohjauksen saatavuudesta ja hyödyllisyydestä sekä urapohdinnasta peruskoulun päättyessä. Tutkimusaineisto koottiin yhteishaun jälkeen huhti–toukokuussa 2014. Vuoden 2004 perusopetuksen opetussuunnitelman perusteista johdettujen väittämien avulla selitetään urapohdinta-mittarin sisältämien muuttujien vaihtelua. Taustamuuttujina käytetään oppilaiden koti- ja koulutaustaa. Urapohdinta-mittari on johdettu CIP-teoriasta (Cognitive Information Processing) ja muokattu CTI-mittarista (Career Thoughts Inventory). Tutkimusaineisto (N = 887) on koottu Webropol-kyselyn avulla. Oppilaiden urapohdintaa mitattiin neljän summamuuttujien avulla. Mittariston 48 väittämästä muodostettiin urapohdinta-summamuuttuja. Tämän lisäksi urapohdinnan osa-alueita arvioitiin sitoutuminen-, epävarmuus- ja konflikti-summamuuttujan avulla. Sitoutuminen-summamuuttuja mittasi sitä, miten vaikeaksi oppilas koki yhteen ura- ja jatkokoulutusvalintaan sitoutumisen. Epävarmuus-summamuuttuja mittasi päätöksenteon epävarmuutta ja konflikti-summamuuttuja vaikeutta tasapainoilla omien ajatusten ja toisaalta merkittäviksi koettujen läheisten ajatusten välillä. Kaikkien opettajien ohjaustyön näkökulmasta parhaiten hyvää urapohdintatulosta, jatkokoulutukseen sitoutumista ja päätöksentekovarmuutta ennustivat oppilaan hyvät kokemukset yhteistoiminnasta, hänen myönteinen suhtautumisensa koulunkäyntiin ja opintosuoritukset. Myös itseohjautuvuus oli tilastollisesti merkitsevässä yhteydessä urapohdintaan. Itseohjautuvuus-summamuuttuja mittasi sitä, oliko oppilas kokenut, että ohjaukselle asetetut tavoitteet saavutettiin. Opettajien tulisi kiinnittää ohjauksessaan huomiota hiljaisiin ja vähän huomiota vaativiin oppilaisiin ja tukea kaikkien oppilaiden toimintakykyä. Opinto-ohjaajan taas tulisi panostaa oppilaan itsetuntemuksen kehittämiseen ja valmiuteen toimia suunnitelmallisesti. Toisen asteen nivelvaiheohjauksen painopiste tulisi siirtää päättöluokkaa varhaisemmaksi. Tutkimustulos ei tue ajatusta, että tehostettu oppilaanohjaus kohdennettaisiin opintomenestyksen mukaan, koska heikkoja urapohtijoita oli kaikissa keskiarvosanaluokissa. Opinto-ohjaajien tulisi panostaa tieto- ja viestintätekniikan hyödyntämiseen ja tehostaa koko koulun työelämäyhteistyötä.

Foreign direct investment motives and location decision factors under economic recession: Three cases of Finnish FDI in Portugal

The purpose of this thesis was to study how uncertainty in economic conditions of the FDI host country affects location decision of an investment, and what kinds of motives are behind the investment decision to a country in economic recession, in this case Portugal. The country has attracted foreign direct investment steadily, but it is evident that most multinational firms and investors tend to be more interested in emerging economies in general. The aim was to find out also which host country specific advantages are important in this kind of cross-border investment and which factors are important for an FDI to succeed under economic uncertainty at the host country. The study was done by analyzing three Finnish case companies: a private equity and real estate investment firm Pontos Group, A wave energy technology research and development company AW Energy and NSN, Nokia Solutions and Networks, a global telecommunications company. The research was done empirically, by interviewing experts on the subject, mainly persons representing these companies. In addition relevant articles, journals and content from case companies’ web-pages is used for the desk research regarding the topic. The results of this thesis showed that the FDIs with strategic asset-seeking investments seem most profitable FDI types under uncertain economic conditions. This kind of investments aim to strengthen the company’s long-term strategy, including the time after recession. Firm-specific ownership advantages that bring competitive advantage proved out to be important under these circumstances, as well as first-mover advantages and externally created assets such as government promotional policies regarding FDI incentives. Also the location was considered suitable for resource- or efficiency seeking motives, based on the lowered price level at the host country. Problems were related mainly to financing, but as foreign companies receive financing usually from their home countries, the economic recession of the host country does not have significant effect for FDI decision, according to this study