Warranty Prediction Using Weibull Simulation

The main objective of this master’s thesis is to examine if Weibull analysis is suitable method for warranty forecasting in the Case Company. The Case Company has used Reliasoft’s Weibull++ software, which is basing on the Weibull method, but the Company has noticed that the analysis has not given right results. This study was conducted making Weibull simulations in different profit centers of the Case Company and then comparing actual cost and forecasted cost. Simula-tions were made using different time frames and two methods for determining future deliveries. The first sub objective is to examine, which parameters of simulations will give the best result to each profit center. The second sub objective of this study is to create a simple control model for following forecasted costs and actual realized costs. The third sub objective is to document all Qlikview-parameters of profit centers. This study is a constructive research, and solutions for company’s problems are figured out in this master’s thesis. In the theory parts were introduced quality issues, for example; what is quality, quality costing and cost of poor quality. Quality is one of the major aspects in the Case Company, so understand-ing the link between quality and warranty forecasting is important. Warranty management was also introduced and other different tools for warranty forecasting. The Weibull method and its mathematical properties and reliability engineering were introduced. The main results of this master’s thesis are that the Weibull analysis forecasted too high costs, when calculating provision. Although, some forecasted values of profit centers were lower than actual values, the method works better for planning purposes. One of the reasons is that quality improving or alternatively quality decreasing is not showing in the results of the analysis in the short run. The other reason for too high values is that the products of the Case Company are com-plex and analyses were made in the profit center-level. The Weibull method was developed for standard products, but products of the Case Company consists of many complex components. According to the theory, this method was developed for homogeneous-data. So the most im-portant notification is that the analysis should be made in the product level, not the profit center level, when the data is more homogeneous.

Efficient Optimization Algorithms for Nonlinear Data Analysis

Identification of low-dimensional structures and main sources of variation from multivariate data are fundamental tasks in data analysis. Many methods aimed at these tasks involve solution of an optimization problem. Thus, the objective of this thesis is to develop computationally efficient and theoretically justified methods for solving such problems. Most of the thesis is based on a statistical model, where ridges of the density estimated from the data are considered as relevant features. Finding ridges, that are generalized maxima, necessitates development of advanced optimization methods. An efficient and convergent trust region Newton method for projecting a point onto a ridge of the underlying density is developed for this purpose. The method is utilized in a differential equation-based approach for tracing ridges and computing projection coordinates along them. The density estimation is done nonparametrically by using Gaussian kernels. This allows application of ridge-based methods with only mild assumptions on the underlying structure of the data. The statistical model and the ridge finding methods are adapted to two different applications. The first one is extraction of curvilinear structures from noisy data mixed with background clutter. The second one is a novel nonlinear generalization of principal component analysis (PCA) and its extension to time series data. The methods have a wide range of potential applications, where most of the earlier approaches are inadequate. Examples include identification of faults from seismic data and identification of filaments from cosmological data. Applicability of the nonlinear PCA to climate analysis and reconstruction of periodic patterns from noisy time series data are also demonstrated. Other contributions of the thesis include development of an efficient semidefinite optimization method for embedding graphs into the Euclidean space. The method produces structure-preserving embeddings that maximize interpoint distances. It is primarily developed for dimensionality reduction, but has also potential applications in graph theory and various areas of physics, chemistry and engineering. Asymptotic behaviour of ridges and maxima of Gaussian kernel densities is also investigated when the kernel bandwidth approaches infinity. The results are applied to the nonlinear PCA and to finding significant maxima of such densities, which is a typical problem in visual object tracking.

Scalable Feature Selection Applications for Genome-Wide Association Studies of Complex Diseases

Personalized medicine will revolutionize our capabilities to combat disease. Working toward this goal, a fundamental task is the deciphering of geneticvariants that are predictive of complex diseases. Modern studies, in the formof genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have afforded researchers with the opportunity to reveal new genotype-phenotype relationships through the extensive scanning of genetic variants. These studies typically contain over half a million genetic features for thousands of individuals. Examining this with methods other than univariate statistics is a challenging task requiring advanced algorithms that are scalable to the genome-wide level. In the future, next-generation sequencing studies (NGS) will contain an even larger number of common and rare variants. Machine learning-based feature selection algorithms have been shown to have the ability to effectively create predictive models for various genotype-phenotype relationships. This work explores the problem of selecting genetic variant subsets that are the most predictive of complex disease phenotypes through various feature selection methodologies, including filter, wrapper and embedded algorithms. The examined machine learning algorithms were demonstrated to not only be effective at predicting the disease phenotypes, but also doing so efficiently through the use of computational shortcuts. While much of the work was able to be run on high-end desktops, some work was further extended so that it could be implemented on parallel computers helping to assure that they will also scale to the NGS data sets. Further, these studies analyzed the relationships between various feature selection methods and demonstrated the need for careful testing when selecting an algorithm. It was shown that there is no universally optimal algorithm for variant selection in GWAS, but rather methodologies need to be selected based on the desired outcome, such as the number of features to be included in the prediction model. It was also demonstrated that without proper model validation, for example using nested cross-validation, the models can result in overly-optimistic prediction accuracies and decreased generalization ability. It is through the implementation and application of machine learning methods that one can extract predictive genotype–phenotype relationships and biological insights from genetic data sets.

Hardware Accelarated Visual Tracking Algorithms. A Systematic Literature Review

Many industrial applications need object recognition and tracking capabilities. The algorithms developed for those purposes are computationally expensive. Yet ,real time performance, high accuracy and small power consumption are essential measures of the system. When all these requirements are combined, hardware acceleration of these algorithms becomes a feasible solution. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current state of these hardware acceleration solutions, which algorithms have been implemented in hardware and what modifications have been done in order to adapt these algorithms to hardware.

3D Mesh Simplification. A survey of algorithms and CAD model simplification tests

Simplification of highly detailed CAD models is an important step when CAD models are visualized or by other means utilized in augmented reality applications. Without simplification, CAD models may cause severe processing and storage is- sues especially in mobile devices. In addition, simplified models may have other advantages like better visual clarity or improved reliability when used for visual pose tracking. The geometry of CAD models is invariably presented in form of a 3D mesh. In this paper, we survey mesh simplification algorithms in general and focus especially to algorithms that can be used to simplify CAD models. We test some commonly known algorithms with real world CAD data and characterize some new CAD related simplification algorithms that have not been surveyed in previous mesh simplification reviews.

Use of airborne laser scanner data in demanding forest conditions

Most of the applications of airborne laser scanner data to forestry require that the point cloud be normalized, i.e., each point represents height from the ground instead of elevation. To normalize the point cloud, a digital terrain model (DTM), which is derived from the ground returns in the point cloud, is employed. Unfortunately, extracting accurate DTMs from airborne laser scanner data is a challenging task, especially in tropical forests where the canopy is normally very thick (partially closed), leading to a situation in which only a limited number of laser pulses reach the ground. Therefore, robust algorithms for extracting accurate DTMs in low-ground-point-densitysituations are needed in order to realize the full potential of airborne laser scanner data to forestry. The objective of this thesis is to develop algorithms for processing airborne laser scanner data in order to: (1) extract DTMs in demanding forest conditions (complex terrain and low number of ground points) for applications in forestry; (2) estimate canopy base height (CBH) for forest fire behavior modeling; and (3) assess the robustness of LiDAR-based high-resolution biomass estimation models against different field plot designs. Here, the aim is to find out if field plot data gathered by professional foresters can be combined with field plot data gathered by professionally trained community foresters and used in LiDAR-based high-resolution biomass estimation modeling without affecting prediction performance. The question of interest in this case is whether or not the local forest communities can achieve the level technical proficiency required for accurate forest monitoring. The algorithms for extracting DTMs from LiDAR point clouds presented in this thesis address the challenges of extracting DTMs in low-ground-point situations and in complex terrain while the algorithm for CBH estimation addresses the challenge of variations in the distribution of points in the LiDAR point cloud caused by things like variations in tree species and season of data acquisition. These algorithms are adaptive (with respect to point cloud characteristics) and exhibit a high degree of tolerance to variations in the density and distribution of points in the LiDAR point cloud. Results of comparison with existing DTM extraction algorithms showed that DTM extraction algorithms proposed in this thesis performed better with respect to accuracy of estimating tree heights from airborne laser scanner data. On the other hand, the proposed DTM extraction algorithms, being mostly based on trend surface interpolation, can not retain small artifacts in the terrain (e.g., bumps, small hills and depressions). Therefore, the DTMs generated by these algorithms are only suitable for forestry applications where the primary objective is to estimate tree heights from normalized airborne laser scanner data. On the other hand, the algorithm for estimating CBH proposed in this thesis is based on the idea of moving voxel in which gaps (openings in the canopy) which act as fuel breaks are located and their height is estimated. Test results showed a slight improvement in CBH estimation accuracy over existing CBH estimation methods which are based on height percentiles in the airborne laser scanner data. However, being based on the idea of moving voxel, this algorithm has one main advantage over existing CBH estimation methods in the context of forest fire modeling: it has great potential in providing information about vertical fuel continuity. This information can be used to create vertical fuel continuity maps which can provide more realistic information on the risk of crown fires compared to CBH.

Efficient Algorithms for Coastal Geographic Problems

The increasing performance of computers has made it possible to solve algorithmically problems for which manual and possibly inaccurate methods have been previously used. Nevertheless, one must still pay attention to the performance of an algorithm if huge datasets are used or if the problem iscomputationally difficult. Two geographic problems are studied in the articles included in this thesis. In the first problem the goal is to determine distances from points, called study points, to shorelines in predefined directions. Together with other in-formation, mainly related to wind, these distances can be used to estimate wave exposure at different areas. In the second problem the input consists of a set of sites where water quality observations have been made and of the results of the measurements at the different sites. The goal is to select a subset of the observational sites in such a manner that water quality is still measured in a sufficient accuracy when monitoring at the other sites is stopped to reduce economic cost. Most of the thesis concentrates on the first problem, known as the fetch length problem. The main challenge is that the two-dimensional map is represented as a set of polygons with millions of vertices in total and the distances may also be computed for millions of study points in several directions. Efficient algorithms are developed for the problem, one of them approximate and the others exact except for rounding errors. The solutions also differ in that three of them are targeted for serial operation or for a small number of CPU cores whereas one, together with its further developments, is suitable also for parallel machines such as GPUs.

Prediction of neurodevelopment and neuromotor trajectories in very preterm born children up to 11 years of age: PIPARI Study

Very preterm birth is a risk for brain injury and abnormal neurodevelopment. While the incidence of cerebral palsy has decreased due to advances in perinatal and neonatal care, the rate of less severe neuromotor problems continues to be high in very prematurely born children. Neonatal brain imaging can aid in identifying children for closer follow-up and in providing parents information on developmental risks. This thesis aimed to study the predictive value of structural brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at term age, serial neonatal cranial ultrasound (cUS), and structured neurological examinations during the longitudinal follow-up for the neurodevelopment of very preterm born children up to 11 years of age as a part of the PIPARI Study (The Development and Functioning of Very Low Birth Weight Infants from Infancy to School Age). A further aim was to describe the associations between regional brain volumes and long-term neuromotor profile. The prospective follow-up comprised of the assessment of neurosensory development at 2 years of corrected age, cognitive development at 5 years of chronological age, and neuromotor development at 11 years of age. Neonatal brain imaging and structured neurological examinations predicted neurodevelopment at all age-points. The combination of neurological examination and brain MRI or cUS improved the predictive value of neonatal brain imaging alone. Decreased brain volumes associated with neuromotor performance. At the age of 11 years, the majority of the very preterm born children had age-appropriate neuromotor development and after-school sporting activities. Long-term clinical follow-up is recommended at least for all very preterm infants with major brain pathologies.