Public and Private Sector Decision Makers Within the Rail Baltica Growth Corridor

Transport volumes have increased and will continue to increase in European Union. Even though the growth has not been equal between different transport modes. Most of the growth has been faced on road transport. European Union aims to balance the unbalanced market shares between the modes by gaining and supporting the competitiveness of railway and waterway transport. In EU railway transportation is seen as solution to increase safety in traffic and decrease the environmental impacts of transportation. The aim of this research is to figure out how it is possible to decrease the environmental impacts by the technology already in use. Main focus of this research is in intermodality and combining the road and railway transportation. This study aims also to figure out demands and expectations towards new Rail Baltica railway route connecting Tallinn and Berlin. The research is conducted by performing a literature review about decreasing environmental impacts and combining road and rail transport. Another viewpoint is taken from the possible effects of tourism to the passenger transport on rails. Knowledge gained by literature review is deepened by additional internet questionnaire study and expert interview study. In decreasing the environmental impacts of transportation electric trains are definitely the best option providing that the electricity is generated from renewable or carbon dioxide free sources. Decrease of environmental impacts has been reached also with acceptance of larger road transport vehicles. According to interviewed passenger transport experts, the whole route from Tallinn to Berlin may not be convenient to be used in passenger transport, just because the route is too long.. In EU freight is transported mainly with semi-trailer combinations, and that is why it could be logical if huckepack trains would be used on Rail Baltica. Huckepack train allows semi-trailers to be transported on rails with time efficient loading-unloading process. Overall, Rail Baltica project is experienced as a future-oriented one and new railway alignment is seen as great alternative option for transport modes using fossil fuels.

Capital Structure and Firm Growth: R&D Intensive Companies

The purpose of this study is to examine and explain firm`s growth impact on capital structure decision-making in research and development intensive companies. Many studies claim that R&D has a pivotal impact on capital structure decisions, but corporate finance theories have often failed to explain these observed patterns. As sales growth is an important concept and objective for R&D firms, it is logical to assume that it plays a vital role in capital structure decisions. This study applies nomothetic research approach. The theoretical part employs a formal conceptual analysis in order to develop the propositions that are tested with empirical data. The empirical part consists of the analysis of three companies; the data is obtained from the annual reports over the period 2003 – 2008. The companies operate in IT- or ICT-industry and are publicly listed. The method for analyzing the case data is based on the financial indicators, which are obtained from the financials of the case companies. These economic indicators describe the capital structure and the financial decision-making of the firms. The method relates to the quantitative studies. Yet, this study extends the analysis beyond the indicators. Specifically, this study addresses the question of what is behind the economic indicators, therefore combining aspects of quantitative and qualitative analysis. The firms examined in this study seem to prefer internal finance during growth. However, external finance seems to be a catalyst for sales growth. Firms strongly prefer equity financing. In growth, the use of equity per capital either increases or stays in a constant level. Over the period 2003 – 2008, the firms were often associated to equity related transactions and short-term debt. Short-term debt was used as a substitute of long-term debt and equity. The case firms also adjusted their capital structure – these adjustments were carried out with short-term debt or equity. The case data also provides implications for the growth signal theory that was developed in this study. Based on the econometric indicators, arguments can be made that equity investors are `attracted` to growing R&D firms. This is because growth helps investors perceive the true type of firm. The findings of this study are best explained by the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory. These corporate finance theories are considered as mainstream. Little support can be found to the implications of the signaling theory and market timing theory.

Consistency of UML based designs using ontology reasoners

Software plays an important role in our society and economy. Software development is an intricate process, and it comprises many different tasks: gathering requirements, designing new solutions that fulfill these requirements, as well as implementing these designs using a programming language into a working system. As a consequence, the development of high quality software is a core problem in software engineering. This thesis focuses on the validation of software designs. The issue of the analysis of designs is of great importance, since errors originating from designs may appear in the final system. It is considered economical to rectify the problems as early in the software development process as possible. Practitioners often create and visualize designs using modeling languages, one of the more popular being the Uni ed Modeling Language (UML). The analysis of the designs can be done manually, but in case of large systems, the need of mechanisms that automatically analyze these designs arises. In this thesis, we propose an automatic approach to analyze UML based designs using logic reasoners. This approach firstly proposes the translations of the UML based designs into a language understandable by reasoners in the form of logic facts, and secondly shows how to use the logic reasoners to infer the logical consequences of these logic facts. We have implemented the proposed translations in the form of a tool that can be used with any standard compliant UML modeling tool. Moreover, we authenticate the proposed approach by automatically validating hundreds of UML based designs that consist of thousands of model elements available in an online model repository. The proposed approach is limited in scope, but is fully automatic and does not require any expertise of logic languages from the user. We exemplify the proposed approach with two applications, which include the validation of domain specific languages and the validation of web service interfaces.

Managing Customer Issues through a Support Channel Network

The importance of after-sales service or service in general can be seen and experienced by customers every day with industrial as well as other non-industrial services or products. This dissertation, drawing on theory and experience, focuses on practical engineering implications, specifically the management of customer issues in the after-sales phase in the mobile phone arena. The main objective of this doctoral dissertation is to investigate customer after-sales issue management, specifically regarding mobile phones. The case studies focus on issue resolution time and the issue of corrective actions. This dissertation consists of a main body and four peer-reviewed journal articles and one manuscript currently under review by a peer-reviewed journal. The main body of this dissertation examines the elements of customer satisfaction, loyalty, and retention with respect to corrective actions to address customer issues and issue resolution time through literature and empirical studies. The five independent works are case studies supporting the thesis research questions. This study examines four questions: 1) What are the factors affecting corrective actions for customers? 2) How can customer issue resolution time be controlled? 3) What are the factors affecting processes in the service chain? and 4) How can communication be measured in a service chain? In this work, both quantitative and qualitative analysis methods are used. The main body of the thesis reviews the literature regarding the elements that bridge the five case studies. The case studies of the articles and surveys lean more toward the methodology of critical positivism and then apply the interpretive approach in interpreting the results. The case study articles employ various statistical methods to analyze and to interpret the empirical and survey data. The statistical methods were used to create a model that is useful for significantly optimizing issue resolution time. Moreover, it was found that samples for verifying issues provided by the customer neither improve the perceived quality of corrective actions nor the perceived quality of issue resolution time. The term “service” in this work is limited to the technical services that are provided by product manufacturers and after-sales authorized service vendors. On the basis of this research work, it has been observed that corrective actions and issue resolution time are associated with customer satisfaction and hence, according to induction theory, to customer loyalty and retention. This thesis utilizes knowledge of marketing and customer relationships to contribute to the existing body of knowledge concerning information and communication technology for after-sales service recovery of mobile terminals. The established models in the thesis contribute to the existing knowledge of the after-sales process of dealing with customer issues in the field of mobile phones. The findings suggest that process managers could focus more on communication and training provided to the staff as new technology evolves rapidly. The study also suggest the managers formulate strategies for how customers can be kept informed on a regular basis of the status of issues that have been escalated for corrective action. The findings also lay the foundation for the comprehensive objective to control the entire product development process, starting with conceptualization. This implies that robust design should be applied to the new products so that problems affecting customer service quality are not repeated. The objective will be achieved when the entire service chain from product development to the final user can be modeled and this model can be used to support the organization at all levels.

Höyryjärjestelmän pelisimulaattorikonsepti

Tässä diplomityössä on suunniteltu konsepti myöhemmin toteutettavaa pelisimulaat-toria varten. Pelisimulaattorista tulee osa öljynjalostamon tuotanto-operaattoreiden höyryjärjestelmän koulutusmoduulia. Työssä höyryjärjestelmän simulaattoriin on laadittu selkeä malli ja rakenne, joka arvioi käyttäjän suoritusta sekä antaa palautteen suorituksen onnistumisesta. Höyryjärjestelmän toiminnan ymmärtäminen on tärkeää, sillä sen avulla höyryntuotantoa voidaan optimoida. Kirjallisuusosassa on käsitelty koulutussimulaattoreita sekä niiden käyttökohteita. Lisäksi on esitetty höyryntuottajat sekä höyrynkuluttajat, jotka huomioitiin pelisimu-laattorikonseptissa. Jokaiselle yksikköprosessille on laadittu toimintakuvaus ja ope-rointiohjeet, joiden perusteella pelaaja saa käsityksen simulaattorin toimintaperiaat-teesta. Soveltavassa osassa on käsitelty kaikkien konseptissa mallinnettujen laitteiden aine- ja energiataseet sekä muut laskennassa tarvittavat teknilliset korrelaatiot. Soveltavas-sa osassa esitettiin myös pelisimulaattorin arviointiperusteet, arviointiin tarvittavien kustannusten korrelaatiot, häiriötilanne sekä esimerkkisimulointi ja suoritusesimerkki häiriön korjaamiseksi. Pelisuorituksen arvioinnin suunnitteluun kiinnitettiin huomiota, jolloin pelisimulaat-tori vastaa mahdollisimman hyvin todellista prosessia sekä säilyttää motivaation si-mulaattoriharjoitteluun.

Att tala om det osägbara : Nicolaus Cusanus cirkulära filosofi i verket De coniecturis med särskild hänsyn till Nelson Pikes tankar om unio mystica

In my dissertation called Speaking of the unsayable: The circular philosophy of Nicholas of Cusa in his work De coniecturis, I presuppose an internal (conceptual) relation between the personal experience of God of Nicholas of Cusa (1401-64) in 1438 and, on the other hand, his philosophy. I hence try to describe the precise character of this relation. Referring to the Norwegian scholars Egil Wyller and Viggo Rossvær, I assume that there is a circularity in Cusanus’ philosophy which appears as self-references (= a sentence refers to itself: A is explained by B and B is explained by A). Wyller finds three phases in the thought of Cusanus (1. De docta ignorantia I-III, 2. De coniecturis I-II, 3. all subsequent works). Rossvær finds it impossible to presuppose certain phases, as the philosophy of Cusanus continuously proceeds and remains open to new ideas. As Cusanus however treats his experience of God far more consciously in his second work De coniecturis than in De docta ignorantia, I find it possible to distinguish between the earlier Cusanus (De docta ignorantia including his earlier works) and the later Cusanus (De coniecturis, about 1444, as well as the following works). Cusanus creates a philosophy of language in outline expressed in De coniecturis, in which he presents two concepts of necessity, i.e. absolute necessity and logical, or reasonable, necessity. These are interrelated in the sense that the mind, or the self, logically affirms the absolute, or unsayable, necessity, which shows itself in the mind and which the mind affirms conjecturally. The endeavour conceptually to understand absolute necessity implies intuitive (or intellectual) contemplation, or vision (investigatio symbolica), in which the four mental unities (the absolute, the intellectual, the rational and the sensuous) work together according to the rules described in De coniecturis. In De coniecturis Cusanus obviously turns from a negative concept of the unsayable to a paradigmatic, which implies that he looks for principles of speaking of the unsayable and presents the idea of a divine language (divinaliter). However, he leaves this idea behind after De coniecturis, although he continues to create new concepts of the unsayable and incomprehensible. The intellectual language of absolute seeing is expressed in the subjunctive, i.e. conditionally. In order to describe the unsayable, Cusanus uses tautologies, the primary one of which is a concept of God, i.e. non aliud est non aliud quam non aliud (the non-other is non-other than the nonother). Wyller considers this the crucial point of the philosophy of Cusanus (De non aliud), described by the latter as the definition of definitions, i.e. the absolute definition. However, this definition is empty regarding its content. It demonstrates that God surpasses the coincidence of opposites (coincidentia oppositorum) and that he is “superunsayable” (superineffabilis), i.e. he is beyond what can be conceived or said. Nothing hence prevents us from speaking of him, provided that he is described as unsayable (= the paradigmatic concept of the unsayable). Here the mode of seeing is decisive. Cusanus in this context (and especially in his later literary production) uses modalities which concern possibility and necessity. His aim is to conduct any willing reader ahead on the way of life (philosophia mentalis). In De coniecturis II he describes the notion of human self-consciousness as the basis of spiritual mutuality in accordance with the humanistic tradition of his time. I mainly oppose the negatively determined concept of Christian mysticism presented by the German philosopher Kurt Flasch and prefer the presentation of Burkhard Mojsisch of the translogical and conjectural use of language in De coniecturis. In particular, I take account of the Scandinavian research, basically that of Johannes Sløk, Birgit H. Helander, Egil Wyller and Viggo Rossvær, who all consider the personal experience of God described by Cusanus a tacit precondition of his philosophy.

Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.

Talo, kartano, puutarha. Kauppahuoneen omistaja Marie Hackman ja hänen kulutusvalintansa varhaismodernissa Viipurissa

Tutkimuksessa keskitytään tutkimaan kuluttamista elämäntavan ja identiteetin muovaajana yhden yksilön elämän kautta. Kuluttamista tutkitaan statuskuluttamisen (conspicious consumption), tilallisuuden ja sukupuolihistorian käsitteistöä hyväksi käyttäen. Tutkimuksen lähteinä on käytetty liikekirjeitä ja tilikirjoja, yksityistä kirjeenvaihtoa, päiväkirjoja ja sanomalehtiä sekä aikalaismuistelmia. Naista lähdemateriaaleista on koottu sekä tilastollista aineistoa että kvalitatiivista, lähilukuun ja mikrohistorialliseen tutkimusotteeseen nojautuvaa tutkimusta. Tutkimus alkaa vuodesta 1799 ja päättyy 1830-luvulle, jolloin seuraava sukupolvi otti vastuun liiketoimista ja lähdeaineistossa tapahtui muutoksia kuluttamisen kirjaamisen suhteen. Tutkimuksen keskeiset käsitteet ovat statuskuluttaminen ja identiteetti. Näitä käsitteitä lähestytään Thorstein Veblenin, Norbert Eliaksen ja Pierre Bourdieun tutkimuksia apuna käyttäen. Tutkimus käsittelee erottautumisen ja jäljittelyn tematiikkaa merkittävimpänä kuluttamisen motivaattoreina. Lisaksi tutkimus nostaa esille hyvän maun ja muodinmukaisuuden kulutusvalintojen taustalla. Statuskuluttaminen kytkeytyy sosiaaliseen kanssakäymiseen. Kuluttamisen kohteet ovat esineitä ja asioita, joita pidetään esillä seurapiireissä. Kuluttaminen tapahtuu seuraelämän ehdoilla, sen mukavoittamiseksi, aseman osoittamiseksi seurapiireissä tai sosiaalisen paineen vuoksi. Tutkimus osoittaa kotitalouden merkityksen kuluttamisen paikkana ja kohteena. Tutkimus myös osoittaa naisten toimintakentän olleen kytköksissä kotitalouden asemaan yhteisössään sekä osoittaa, että sukupuolta pitää tarkastella suhteessa yksilön sosiaaliseen asemaan. Tutkimus osoittaa, että Marie Hackmanin kuluttaminen muuttui ikääntymisen myötä. Aseman osoittaminen oli merkittävämpää nuorena ja aseman ollessa vielä vakiintumattomampi.

Structural and Computational Existence Results for Multidimensional Subshifts

Symbolic dynamics is a branch of mathematics that studies the structure of infinite sequences of symbols, or in the multidimensional case, infinite grids of symbols. Classes of such sequences and grids defined by collections of forbidden patterns are called subshifts, and subshifts of finite type are defined by finitely many forbidden patterns. The simplest examples of multidimensional subshifts are sets of Wang tilings, infinite arrangements of square tiles with colored edges, where adjacent edges must have the same color. Multidimensional symbolic dynamics has strong connections to computability theory, since most of the basic properties of subshifts cannot be recognized by computer programs, but are instead characterized by some higher-level notion of computability. This dissertation focuses on the structure of multidimensional subshifts, and the ways in which it relates to their computational properties. In the first part, we study the subpattern posets and Cantor-Bendixson ranks of countable subshifts of finite type, which can be seen as measures of their structural complexity. We show, by explicitly constructing subshifts with the desired properties, that both notions are essentially restricted only by computability conditions. In the second part of the dissertation, we study different methods of defining (classes of ) multidimensional subshifts, and how they relate to each other and existing methods. We present definitions that use monadic second-order logic, a more restricted kind of logical quantification called quantifier extension, and multi-headed finite state machines. Two of the definitions give rise to hierarchies of subshift classes, which are a priori infinite, but which we show to collapse into finitely many levels. The quantifier extension provides insight to the somewhat mysterious class of multidimensional sofic subshifts, since we prove a characterization for the class of subshifts that can extend a sofic subshift into a nonsofic one.

Defining Contexts in Context-Free Grammars

This thesis introduces an extension of Chomsky’s context-free grammars equipped with operators for referring to left and right contexts of strings.The new model is called grammar with contexts. The semantics of these grammars are given in two equivalent ways — by language equations and by logical deduction, where a grammar is understood as a logic for the recursive definition of syntax. The motivation for grammars with contexts comes from an extensive example that completely defines the syntax and static semantics of a simple typed programming language. Grammars with contexts maintain most important practical properties of context-free grammars, including a variant of the Chomsky normal form. For grammars with one-sided contexts (that is, either left or right), there is a cubic-time tabular parsing algorithm, applicable to an arbitrary grammar. The time complexity of this algorithm can be improved to quadratic,provided that the grammar is unambiguous, that is, it only allows one parsefor every string it defines. A tabular parsing algorithm for grammars withtwo-sided contexts has fourth power time complexity. For these grammarsthere is a recognition algorithm that uses a linear amount of space. For certain subclasses of grammars with contexts there are low-degree polynomial parsing algorithms. One of them is an extension of the classical recursive descent for context-free grammars; the version for grammars with contexts still works in linear time like its prototype. Another algorithm, with time complexity varying from linear to cubic depending on the particular grammar, adapts deterministic LR parsing to the new model. If all context operators in a grammar define regular languages, then such a grammar can be transformed to an equivalent grammar without context operators at all. This allows one to represent the syntax of languages in a more succinct way by utilizing context specifications. Linear grammars with contexts turned out to be non-trivial already over a one-letter alphabet. This fact leads to some undecidability results for this family of grammars

Energy Management System for LVDC Island Networks

Recent developments in power electronics technology have made it possible to develop competitive and reliable low-voltage DC (LVDC) distribution networks. Further, islanded microgrids—isolated small-scale localized distribution networks— have been proposed to reliably supply power using distributed generations. However, islanded operations face many issues such as power quality, voltage regulation, network stability, and protection. In this thesis, an energy management system (EMS) that ensures efficient energy and power balancing and voltage regulation has been proposed for an LVDC island network utilizing solar panels for electricity production and lead-acid batteries for energy storage. The EMS uses the master/slave method with robust communication infrastructure to control the production, storage, and loads. The logical basis for the EMS operations has been established by proposing functionalities of the network components as well as by defining appropriate operation modes that encompass all situations. During loss-of-powersupply periods, load prioritizations and disconnections are employed to maintain the power supply to at least some loads. The proposed EMS ensures optimal energy balance in the network. A sizing method based on discrete-event simulations has also been proposed to obtain reliable capacities of the photovoltaic array and battery. In addition, an algorithm to determine the number of hours of electric power supply that can be guaranteed to the customers at any given location has been developed. The successful performances of all the proposed algorithms have been demonstrated by simulations.

Bank Income Diversification and its Impact on Profitability and Risk: Evidence from Nordic Markets

Financial industry has recently encountered many changes in the business environment. Increased regulation together with growing competition is forcing commercial banks to rethink their business models. In order to maintain profitability in the new environment, banks are focusing more into activities that yield noninterest income. This is a shift away from the traditional intermediation function of banks. This study aims to answer the question if the shift from traditional income yielding activities to more innovative noninterest activities is logical in terms of profitability and risk in Nordics. This study also aims to answer the question if diversification within the noninterest income categories has impact on profitability and risk and if there are certain categories of noninterest income that are better than others in terms of profitability and risk in Nordics. Results show that diversification between interest and noninterest activities and increase in the share of noninterest income have a negative impact on the risk adjusted returns and risk profile. Results also show that further diversification within the noninterest income categories has negative impact on risk adjusted profitability and risk while an increase of the share of commission and fee income category of total noninterest income has a positive impact on risk adjusted profitability and risk. Results are logical and in line with previous research (De Young & Roland, 2001; Stiroh, 2004). Results provide useful information to banks and help them better evaluate outcomes of different income diversification strategies.

Development and Effect Analysis of the Asteri Consultative Auditing Process - Safety and Security Management in Educational Institutions

The Finnish legislation requires for a safe and secure learning environment. However, the comprehensive, risk based safety and security management (SSM) and the management commitment in the implementation and development of the SSM are not mentioned in the legislation. Multiple institutions, operators and researchers have studied and developed safety and security in educational institutions over the past decade. Typically the approach has been fragmented and without bringing up the importance of the comprehensive SSM. The development needs of the safety and security operations in universities have been studied. However, in universities of applied sciences (UASs) and in elementary schools (ESs), the performance level, strengths and weaknesses of the comprehensive SSM have not been studied. The objective of this study was to develop the comprehensive, risk based SSM of educational institutions by developing the new Asteri consultative auditing process and study its effects on auditees. Furthermore, the performance level in the comprehensive SSM in UASs and ESs were studied using Asteri and the TUTOR model developed by the Keski-Uusimaa Department for Rescue Services. In addition, strengths, development needs and differences were identified. In total, 76 educational institutions were audited between the years 2011 and 2014. The study is based on logical empiricism, and an observational applied research design was used. Auditing, observation and an electronic survey were used for data collection. Statistical analysis was used to analyze the collected information. In addition, thematic analysis was used to analyze the development areas of the organizations mentioned by the respondents in the survey. As one of the main contributions, this research presents the new Asteri consultative auditing process. Organizations with low performance levels on the audited subject benefit the most from the Asteri consultative auditing process. Asteri may be usable in many different types of audits, not only in SSM audits. As a new result, this study provides new knowledge on attitudes related to auditing. According to the research findings, auditing may generate negative attitudes and the auditor should take them into account when planning and preparing for audits. Negative attitudes can be compensated by producing added value, objectivity and positivity for the audit and, thus, improve the positive effects of auditing on knowledge and skills. Moreover, as the results of this study shows, auditing safety and security issues do not increase feelings of insecurity, but rather increase feelings of safety and security when using the new Asteri consultative auditing process with the TUTOR model. The results showed that the SSM in the audited UASs was statistically significantly more advanced than that in the audited ESs. However, there is still room for improvement in the ESs and the UASs as the approach to the SSM was fragmented. It can be assumed that the majority of Finnish UASs and ESs do not likely meet the basic level of the comprehensive, risk based the SSM.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Viability of part cargoes in tramp shipping company’s routing and scheduling decisions

Operational excellence of individual tramp shipping companies is important in today’s market, where competition is intense, freight revenues are modest and capital costs high due to global financial crisis, and tighter regulatory framework is generating additional costs and challenges to the industry. This thesis concentrates on tramp shipping, where a tramp operator in a form of an individual case company, specialized in short-sea shipping activities in the Baltic Sea region, is searching ways to map their current fleet operations and better understand potential ways to improve the overall routing and scheduling decisions. The research problem is related to tramp fleet planning where several cargoes are carried on board at the same time, which are here systematically referred to as part cargoes. The purpose is to determine the pivotal dimensions and characteristics of these part cargo operations in tramp shipping, and offer both the individual case company and wider research community better understanding of potential risks and benefits related to utilization of part cargo operations. A mixed method research approach is utilized in this research, as the objectives are related to complex, real-life business practices in the field of supply chain management and more specifically, maritime logistics. A quantitative analysis of different voyage scenarios is executed, including alternative voyage legs with varying cost structure and customer involvement. An on-line-based questionnaire designed and prepared by case company’s decision group again provides desired data of predominant attitudes and views of most important industrial customers regarding the part cargo-related operations and potential future utilization of this business model. The results gained from these quantitative methods are complied with qualitative data collection tools, along with suitable secondary data sources. Based on results and logical analysis of different data sources, a framework for characterizing the different aspects of part cargo operations is developed, utilizing both existing research and empirical investigation of the phenomenon. As conclusions, part cargoes have the ability to be part of viable fleet operations, and even increase flexibility among the fleet to a certain extent. Naturally, several hinderers for this development is recognized as well, such as potential issues with information gathering and sharing, inefficient port activities, and increased transit times.