Engendering Group Support Based Foresight for Capital Intensive Manufacturing Industries - Case Paper and Steel Industry Scenarios by 2018

In recent times of global turmoil, the need for uncertainty management has become ever momentous. The need for enhanced foresight especially concerns capital-intensive industries, which need to commit their resources and assets with long-term planning horizons. Scenario planning has been acknowledged to have many virtues - and limitations - concerning the mapping of the future and illustrating the alternative development paths. The present study has been initiated to address both the need of improved foresight in two capital-intensive industries, i.e. the paper and steel industries and the imperfections in the current scenario practice. The research problem has been approached by engendering a problem-solving vehicle, which combines, e.g. elements of generic scenario process, face-to-face group support methods, deductive scenario reasoning and causal mapping into a fully integrated scenario process. The process, called the SAGES scenario framework, has been empirically tested by creating alternative futures for two capital-intensive industries, i.e. the paper and steel industries. Three scenarios for each industry have been engendered together with the identification of the key megatrends, the most important foreign investment determinants, key future drivers and leading indicators for the materialisation of the scenarios. The empirical results revealed a two-fold outlook for the paper industry, while the steel industry future was seen as much more positive. The research found support for utilising group support systems in scenario and strategic planning context with some limitations. Key perceived benefits include high time-efficiency, productivity and lower resource-intensiveness. Group support also seems to enhance participant satisfaction, encourage innovative thinking and provide the users with personalised qualitative scenarios.

Distortion properties of quasiconformal maps

In this Licentiate thesis we investigate the absolute ratio δ, j, ˜j and hyperbolic ρ metrics and their relations with each other. Various growth estimates are given for quasiconformal mpas both in plane and space. Some Hölder constants were refined with respect δ, j ˜j metrics. Some new results regarding the Hölder continuity of quasiconformal and quasiregular mapping of unit ball with respect to Euclidean and hyperbolic metrics are given, which were obtained by many authors in 1980’s. Applications are given to the study of metric space, quasiconformal and quasiregular maps in the plane and as well as in the space.

Holocene Varved Lake Sediments as Records of Palaeoenvironmental Change and Geomagnetic Palaeosecular Variation in Eastern Finland

This dissertation discusses Holocene palaeoenvironmental and palaeomagnetic secular variation (PSV) records reconstructed from sediments preserved in Lake Lehmilampi (63º37´N, 29º06´E) and Lake Kortejärvi (63º37´N, 28º56´E) in eastern Finland. Several piston and freeze cores were obtained from both lakes for varve and magnetic analyses. Sediment samples were impregnated in low-viscosity epoxy and physical parameters of varves, including varve thickness and relative grey-scale values, were recorded using x-ray densitometry combined with semiautomatic digital image analysis. On average, varve records of Lehmilampi and Kortejärvi cover 5122 and 3902 years, respectively. Past solar activity, as estimated by residual ₁₄C data, compares favourably with varve thicknesses from Lehmilampi during the last 2000 years. This indicates the potential of clastic-organic varves to record sensitively climatic variations. Bulk magnetic parameters, including magnetic susceptibility together with natural, anhysteretic and isothermal remanent magnetizations, were measured to describe mineral magnetic properties and geomagnetic palaeosecular variation recorded in the sediments. Main stages in the development of the investigated lakes are reflected in the variations in the mineral magnetic records, sediment lithology and composition. Similar variations in magnetic parameters and sediment organic matter suggest contribution of bacterial magnetite in the magnetic assemblages of Lehmilampi. Inclination and relative declination records yielded largely consistent results, attesting to the great potential of these sediments to preserve directional palaeosecular variation in high resolution. The PSV data from Lehmilampi and Kortejärvi were stacked into North Karelian PSV stack, which may be used for dating homogenous lake sediments in the same regional context. Reconstructed millennial variations in relative palaeointensity results are approximately in agreement with those seen in the absolute palaeointensity data from Europe. Centennial variations in the relative palaeointensity, however, are influenced by environmental changes. Caution is recommended when using varved lake sediments in reconstructing relative palaeointensity.

Regional potential for collaborative implementation of small CHP plants in bioenergy technology

This thesis is a preliminary study targeting South-Eastern Finland. The objective was to find out the financial and functional readiness and willingness of the small and medium-sized enterprises of the region to manufacture and sell distributed bioenergy solutions collaboratively as a business network. In this case these solutions mean small-scale (0.5 - 3 MW) woodchips-operated combined heat and power (CHP) plants. South-Eastern Finland has suffered from a decline in the recent years, mostly due to the problems of the traditionally strong industrial know-how area of the region, the paper industry. Local small and medium-sized companies will have to find new ways to survive the toughening competition. A group of 40 companies from suitable industries were selected and financial and comparative analysis was performed on them. Additionally 19 managing directors of the companies were selected for an interview to find out their views on networking, its requirements, advantages and the general interest in it. The studied companies were found to be generally in fairly good financial condition and in that sense, fit for networking activities. The interviews revealed that the companies were capable of producing all the needed elements for the plants in question, and the managers appeared to be very interested in and have a positive attitude towards such business networks. Thus it can be said that the small and medium-sized companies of the region are capable of and interested in manufacturing small bio-CHP plants as a production network.

Effects of Foreign Direct Investment inflows on growth in Central and Eastern European transition countries

The aim of this master’s thesis is to analyze the effects of Foreign Direct Investments on growth in selected Central and Eastern European transition countries. The theoretical part of this thesis, introduces growth theories and how FDI is covered in those theories. In addition, the results from previous studies, which have studied FDI’s effect on growth, are presented in this master’s thesis. This work introduces also the economical progress during the transition period in selected countries. In the empirical part’s regression model, it will be searched for the direct effect of FDI on growth with panel data collected from nine transition countries.

Finnish Critical Industries, Maritime Transport Vulnerabilities and societal Implications

Maritime transports are very essential for Finland as over 80% of the foreign trade in the country is seaborne and possibilities to carry out these transports by are limited. Any disruption in maritime transports has negative consequences to many sectors in the Finnish economy. Maritime transport thus represents critical infrastructure for Finland. This report focuses on the importance of maritime transports on security of supply in Finland and for the so called critical industries in particular. The report summarizes the results of the Work Package 2 of the research project STOCA – “Study of cargo flows in the Gulf of Finland in emergency situations”. The aim of the research was to analyze the cargo flows and infrastructure that are vital for maintaining security of supply in Finland, as well as the consequences of disruptions in the maritime traffic for the Finnish critical industries and for the Finnish society. In the report we give a presentation of the infrastructure and transport routes which are critical for maintaining security of supply in Finland. We discuss import dependency of the critical industries, and the importance of the Gulf of Finland ports for Finland. We assess vulnerabilities associated with the critical material flows of the critical industries, and possibilities for alternative routings in case either one or several of the ports in Finland would be closed. As a concrete example of a transport disruption we analyze the consequences of the Finnish stevedore strike at public ports (4.3.–19.3.2010). The strike stopped approximately 80% of the Finnish foreign trade. As a result of the strike Finnish companies could not export their products and/or import raw materials, components and spare parts, or other essential supplies. We carried out personal interviews with representatives of the companies in Finnish critical industries to find out about the problems caused by the strike, how companies carried out they transports and how they managed to continue their operations during the strike. Discussions with the representatives of the companies gave us very practical insights about companies’ preparedness towards transport disruptions in general. Companies in the modern world are very vulnerable to transport disruptions because companies regardless of industries have tried to improve their performance by optimizing their resources and e.g. by reducing their inventory levels. At the same time they have become more and more dependent on continuous transports. Most companies involved in foreign trade have global operations and global supply chains, so any disruption anywhere in the world can have an impact on the operations of the company causing considerable financial loss. The volcanic eruption in Iceland in April 2010 stopping air traffic in the whole Northern Europe and most recently the earth quake causing a tsunami in Japan in March 2011 are examples of severe disruptions causing considerable negative impacts to companies’ supply chains. Even though the Finnish stevedore strike was a minor disruption compared to the natural catastrophes mentioned above, it showed the companies’ vulnerability to transport disruptions very concretely. The Finnish stevedore strike gave a concrete learning experience of the importance of preventive planning for all Finnish companies: it made them re-think their practical preparedness towards transport risks and how they can continue with their daily operations despite the problems. Many companies realized they need to adapt their long-term countermeasures against transport disruptions. During the strike companies did various actions to secure their supply chains. The companies raised their inventory levels before the strike began, they re-scheduled or postponed their deliveries, shifted customer orders between production plants among their company’s production network or in the extreme case bought finished products from their competitor to fulfil their customers’ order. Our results also show that possibilities to prepare against transport disruptions differ between industries. The Finnish society as a whole is very dependent on imports of energy, various raw materials and other supplies needed by the different industries. For many of the Finnish companies in the export industries and e.g. in energy production maritime transport is the only transport mode the companies can use due to large volumes of materials transported or due to other characteristics of the goods. Therefore maritime transport cannot be replaced by any other transport mode. In addition, a significant amount of transports are concentrated in certain ports. From a security of supply perspective attention should be paid to finding ways to decrease import dependency and ensuring that companies in the critical industries can ensure the continuity of their operations.

The analysis and mitigation of risks in FMCG supply chain: the case of British American Tobacco Eastern Europe

This work investigates the Bullwhip Effect, which is one of the most important phenomena in contemporary supply chain management. The author uses most recent theoretical apparatus to analyze operational activities of a leading FMCG company British American Tobacco Eastern Europe. This paper investigates and describes the process in BAT supply chain management and considers the impact of the Bullwhip Effect together with the potential risks threatening company's operations. Emergence of the Bullwhip Effect leads to supply chain inefficiency. This paper contains methodological supply chain risk mitigation recommendations, description of a real case study and an analytical study of internal and external supply chain processes

St. Petersburg Court Chant and the Tradition of Eastern Slavic Church Singing

The present study examines the repertory of liturgical chant known as St. Petersburg Court Chant which emerged within the Imperial Court of St. Petersburg, Russia, and appeared in print in a number of revisions during the course of the 19th century, eventually to spread throughout the Russian Empire and even abroad. The study seeks answers to questions on the essence and composition of Court Chant, its history and liturgical background, and most importantly, its musical relationship to other repertories of Eastern Slavic chant. The research questions emerge from previous literary accounts of Court Chant (summarized in the Introduction), which have tended to be inaccurate and generally not based on critical research. The study is divided into eight main chapters. Chapter 1 provides a survey of the history of Eastern Slavic chant and the Imperial Court Chapel of St. Petersburg until 1917, with special emphasis on the history of singing traditional chant in polyphony, the status of the Court Chapel as a government authority, and its endeavours in publishing church music. Chapter 2 deals with the liturgical background of Eastern chant, the chant genres, and main repertories of Eastern Slavic chant. Chapter 3 concentrates on chant sources: it introduces the musical notations utilised, after which a typology of chant books is presented. The discussion continues with a survey of the sources of Court Chant and their content, the specimens selected for closer analysis, the comparative materials from other repertories, and ends with a commentary on some chant sources that have been excluded. The comparative sources include a specimen from around the beginning of the 12th century, a few manuscripts from the 17th century, and printed and manuscript chant books from the early 18th to early 20th century, covering the geographical area that delimits to the western Ukraine, Astrakhan, Nizhny Novgorod, and the Solovetsky Monastery. Chapter 4 presents the approach and methods used in the subsequent analytical comparisons. After a survey of the pitch organization of Eastern Slavic chant, the customary harmonization strategy of traditional chant polyphony is examined, according to which a method for meaningful analysis of the harmony is proposed. The method is based on the observation that the harmonic framework of chant polyphony derives from the standard pitch collection of monodic chant known as the Church Gamut, specific pitches of which form eight harmonic regions that behave like the usual tonalities of major and harmonic minor. Because of the considerable quantity of comparative chant forms, computer-assisted statistical methods are applied to the analysis of chant melodies. The primary chant forms and their respective comparative forms have been pre-processed into reduced chant prototypes and divided into redactions. The analyses are carried out by measuring the formal dissimilarities of the primary chant forms of the Court Chant repertory against each comparative form, and also by measuring the reciprocal dissimilarities of all chant versions in a redaction, the results of which are subjected to agglomerative hierarchical clustering in order to find out how the chant forms relate to each other. The dissimilarities are determined by applying a metric dissimilarity function that is based on the Levenshtein Distance. Chapter 5 provides the melodic and harmonic analyses of generic chants (chants used for multiple texts of different lengths), i.e., chants for stichera samoglasny and troparia, Chapter 6 of pseudo-generic chants (chants that are used for multiple texts but with certain restrictions), i.e., chants for heirmoi, prokeimena, and three other hymns, and Chapter 7 of non-generic chants, covering nine chants that in the Court repertory are not shared by multiple texts. The results are summarized and evaluated in Chapter 8. Accordingly, it can be established that, contrary to previous conceptions, melodically, Court Chant is in effect a full part of the wider Eastern Slavic chant tradition. Even if it is somewhat detached from the chant versions of the Synodal square-note chant books and the local tradition of Moscow, it is particularly close to chant forms of East Ukraine and some vernacular repertories from Russia. Respectively, the harmonization strategies of Court Chant do not show significant individuality in comparison with those of the available polyphonic comparative sources, the main difference being the part-writing, which generally conforms to western common practice standard, whereas the deviations from this tend to be more significant in other analysed repertories of polyphonic chant. Thus, insofar as the subsequent prevalence of Court Chant is not based on its forceful dissemination by authorities (as suggested in previous literature but for which little tangible evidence could be found in Chapter 1), in the present author’s interpretation, Court Chant attained its dominance principally because musically it was considered sufficiently traditional, and as a chant body supported by the government, was conveniently available in print in serviceable harmonizations.

Integration or a Greek tragedy?: How crisis spillovers affect Central and Eastern European States

Tutkielma siitä, miten Euroopan entisten sosialistivaltioiden markkinoiden integroituminen on edistynyt Kreikan ja EMU-alueen kanssa euron käyttöönoton ajalta. Tutkimus vertaa maiden markkinoiden reaktioita Kreikasta ja EMU-alueelta kantautuviin sokkeihin ennen ja jälkeen vuonna 2007 alkanutta kriisiä.

The Finnish it industries in transition. Defining and Measuring the Finnish Software Product and IT Services Industries by Applying Theoretical Frameworks

The starting point of this study is that the prevailing way to consider the Finnish IT industries and industry information often results in a limited and even skewed picture of the sector. The purpose of the study is to contribute and increase knowledge and understanding of the status, structure and evolution of the Finnish IT industries as well as the Finnish IT vendor field and competition. The focus is on software product and IT services industries which form a crucial part of all ICT industries. This study examines the Finnish IT sector from production (supply) as well as market (demand) perspective. The study is based on empirical information from multiple sources. Three research questions were formulated for the study. The first concerns the status of the Finnish IT industries considered by applying theoretical frameworks. The second research question targets at the basis for the future evolution of the Finnish IT industries and, finally, the third at the ability of the available definitions and indicators to describe the Finnish IT industries and IT markets. Major structural changes like technological changes and related innovations, globalization and new business models are drivers of the evolution of the IT industries. The findings of this study emphasize the significant role of IT services in the Finnish IT sector and in connection to that the ability to combine IT service skills, competences and practices with high level software skills also in the future. According to the study the Finnish IT enterprises and their customers have become increasingly dependent on global ecosystems and platforms, applications and IT services provided by global vendors. As a result, more IT decisions are made outside Finland. In addition, IT companies are facing new competition from other than IT industries bringing into market new substitutes. To respond to the new competition, IT firms seek growth by expanding beyond their traditional markets.. The changing global division of labor accentuates the need for accurate information of the IT sector but, at the same time, also makes it increasingly challenging to acquire the information needed. One of the main contributions of this study is to provide frameworks for describing the Finnish IT sector and its evolution. These frameworks help combine empirical information from various sources and make it easier to concretize the structures, volumes, relationships and interaction of both, the production and market side of the Finnish IT industry. Some frameworks provide tools to analyze the vendor field, competition and the basis for the future evolution of the IT industries. The observations of the study support the argument that static industry definitions and related classifications do not serve the information needs in dynamic industries, such as the IT industries. One of the main messages of this study is to emphasize the importance of understanding the definitions and starting points of different information sources. Simultaneously, in the structure and evolution of Finnish IT industries the number of employees has become a more valid and reliable measure than the revenue based indicators.

Canadian Pacific Linjens sällskapsresa till Canada

kuv., 10 x 15 cm