Quality assurance of refuse derived fuel with machine vision

This thesis studies the use of machine vision in RDF quality assurance and manufacturing. Currently machine vision is used in recycling and material detection and some commer- cial products are available in the market. In this thesis an on-line machine vision system is proposed for characterizing particle size. The proposed machine vision system is based on the mapping between image segmenta- tion and the ground truth of the particle size. The results shows that the implementation of such machine vision system is feasible.

Modeling Energy Futures Returns With Markov Regime Switching Model

Financial time series have a tendency of abruptly changing their behavior and maintain this behavior for several consecutive periods, and commodity futures returns are not an exception. This quality proposes that nonlinear models, as opposed to linear models, can more accurately describe returns and volatility. Markov regime switching models are able to match this behavior and have become a popular way to model financial time series. This study uses Markov regime switching model to describe the behavior of energy futures returns on a commodity level, because studies show that commodity futures are a heterogeneous asset class. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, determine how many regimes characterize individual energy commodities’ returns in different return frequencies. Second, study the characteristics of these regimes. We extent the previous studies on the subject in two ways: We allow for the possibility that the number of regimes may exceed two, as well as conduct the research on individual commodities rather than on commodity indices or subgroups of these indices. We use daily, weekly and monthly time series of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoil futures returns over 1994–2014, where available, to carry out the study. We apply the likelihood ratio test to determine the sufficient number of regimes for each commodity and data frequency. Then the time series are modeled with Markov regime switching model to obtain the return distribution characteristics of each regime, as well as the transition probabilities of moving between regimes. The results for the number of regimes suggest that daily energy futures return series consist of three to six regimes, whereas weekly and monthly returns for all energy commodities display only two regimes. When the number of regimes exceeds two, there is a tendency for the time series of energy commodities to form groups of regimes. These groups are usually quite persistent as a whole because probability of a regime switch inside the group is high. However, individual regimes in these groups are not persistent and the process oscillates between these regimes frequently. Regimes that are not part of any group are generally persistent, but show low ergodic probability, i.e. rarely prevail in the market. This study also suggests that energy futures return series characterized with two regimes do not necessarily display persistent bull and bear regimes. In fact, for the majority of time series, bearish regime is considerably less persistent. Rahoituksen aikasarjoilla on taipumus arvaamattomasti muuttaa käyttäytymistään ja jatkaa tätä uutta käyttäytymistä useiden periodien ajan, eivätkä hyödykefutuurien tuotot tee tähän poikkeusta. Tämän ominaisuuden johdosta lineaaristen mallien sijasta epälineaariset mallit pystyvät tarkemmin kuvailemaan esimerkiksi tuottojen jakauman parametreja. Markov regiiminvaihtomallit pystyvät vangitsemaan tämän ominaisuuden ja siksi niistä on tullut suosittuja rahoituksen aikasarjojen mallintamisessa. Tämä tutkimus käyttää Markov regiiminvaihtomallia kuvaamaan yksittäisten energiafutuurien tuottojen käyttäytymistä, sillä tutkimukset osoittavat hyödykefutuurien olevan hyvin heterogeeninen omaisuusluokka. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää, kuinka monta regiimiä tarvitaan kuvaamaan energiafutuurien tuottoja eri tuottofrekvensseillä ja mitkä ovat näiden regiimien ominaisuudet. Aiempaa tutkimusta aiheesta laajennetaan määrittämällä regiimien lukumäärä tilastotieteellisen testauksen menetelmin sekä tutkimalla energiafutuureja yksittäin; ei indeksi- tai alaindeksitasolla. Tutkimuksessa käytetään päivä-, viikko- ja kuukausiaikasarjoja Brent-raakaöljyn, WTI-raakaöljyn, maakaasun, lämmitysöljyn ja polttoöljyn tuotoista aikaväliltä 1994–2014, siltä osin kuin aineistoa on saatavilla. Likelihood ratio -testin avulla estimoidaan kaikille aikasarjoille regiimien määrä,jonka jälkeen Markov regiiminvaihtomallia hyödyntäen määritetään yksittäisten regiimientuottojakaumien ominaisuudet sekä regiimien välinen transitiomatriisi. Tulokset regiimien lukumäärän osalta osoittavat, että energiafutuurien päiväkohtaisten tuottojen aikasarjoissa regiimien lukumäärä vaihtelee kolmen ja kuuden välillä. Viikko- ja kuukausituottojen kohdalla kaikkien energiafutuurien prosesseissa regiimien lukumäärä on kaksi. Kun regiimejä on enemmän kuin kaksi, on prosessilla taipumus muodostaa regiimeistä koostuvia ryhmiä. Prosessi pysyy ryhmän sisällä yleensä pitkään, koska todennäköisyys siirtyä ryhmään kuuluvien regiimien välillä on suuri. Yksittäiset regiimit ryhmän sisällä eivät kuitenkaan ole kovin pysyviä. Näin ollen prosessi vaihtelee ryhmän sisäisten regiimien välillä tiuhaan. Regiimit, jotka eivät kuulu ryhmään, ovat yleensä pysyviä, mutta prosessi ajautuu niihin vain harvoin, sillä todennäköisyys siirtyä muista regiimeistä niihin on pieni. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat myös, että prosesseissa, joita ohjaa kaksi regiimiä, nämä regiimit eivät välttämättä ole pysyvät bull- ja bear-markkinatilanteet. Tulokset osoittavat sen sijaan, että bear-markkinatilanne on energiafutuureissa selvästi vähemmän pysyvä.

The feasibility of torrefaction for the co-firing of wood in pulverised-fuel boilers

Torrefaction is the partial pyrolysis of wood characterised by thermal degradation of predominantly hemicellulose under inert atmosphere. Torrefaction can be likened to coffee roasting but with wood in place of beans. This relatively new process concept makes wood more like coal. Torrefaction has attracted interest because it potentially enables higher rates of co-firing in existing pulverised-coal power plants and hence greater net CO2 emission reductions. Academic and entrepreneurial interest in torrefaction has sky rocketed in the last decade. Research output has focused on the many aspects of torrefaction – from detailed chemical changes in feedstock to globally-optimised production and supply scenarios with which to sustain EU emission-cutting directives. However, despite its seemingly simple concept, torrefaction has retained a somewhat mysterious standing. Why hasn’t torrefied pellet production become fully commercialised? The question is one of feasibility. This thesis addresses this question. Herein, the feasibility of torrefaction in co-firing applications is approached from three directions. Firstly, the natural limitations imposed by the structure of wood are assessed. Secondly, the environmental impact of production and use of torrefied fuel is evaluated and thirdly, economic feasibility is assessed based on the state of the art of pellet making. The conclusions reached in these domains are as follows. Modification of wood’s chemical structure is limited by its naturally existing constituents. Consequently, key properties of wood with regards to its potential as a co-firing fuel have a finite range. The most ideal benefits gained from wood torrefaction cannot all be realised simultaneously in a single process or product. Although torrefaction at elevated pressure may enhance some properties of torrefied wood, high-energy torrefaction yields are achieved at the expense of other key properties such as heating value, grindability, equilibrium moisture content and the ability to pelletise torrefied wood. Moreover, pelletisation of even moderately torrefied fuels is challenging and achieving a standard level of pellet durability, as required by international standards, is not trivial. Despite a reduced moisture content, brief exposure of torrefied pellets to water from rainfall or emersion results in a high level of moisture retention. Based on the above findings, torrefied pellets are an optimised product. Assessment of energy and CO2-equivalent emission balance indicates that there is no environmental barrier to production and use of torrefied pellets in co-firing. A long product transport distance, however, is necessary in order for emission benefits to exceed those of conventional pellets. Substantial CO2 emission reductions appear possible with this fuel if laboratory milling results carry over to industrial scales for direct co-firing. From demonstrated state-of-the-art pellet properties, however, the economic feasibility of torrefied pellet production falls short of conventional pellets primarily due to the larger capital investment required for production. If the capital investment for torrefied pellet production can be reduced significantly or if the pellet-making issues can be resolved, the two production processes could be economically comparable. In this scenario, however, transatlantic shipping distances and a dry fuel are likely necessary for production to be viable. Based on demonstrated pellet properties to date, environmental aspects and production economics, it is concluded that torrefied pellets do not warrant investment at this time. However, from the presented results, the course of future research in this field is clear.

Foreign exchange exposure management in a fuel procurement company operating in the commodity markets

Fluctuating commodity prices, foreign exchange rates and interest rates are causing changes in cash flows, market value and the companies’ profit. Most of the commodities are quoted in US dollar. Companies with non-dollar accounting face a double risk in the form of the commodity price risk and foreign exchange risk. The objective of this Master’s thesis is to find out how companies under commodity should manage foreign exchange exposure. The theoretical literature is based on foreign exchange risk, commodity risk and foreign exchange exposure management. The empirical research is done by using constructive modelling of a case company in the oil industry. The exposure is model with foreign exchange net cash flow and net working capital. First, the factors affecting foreign exchange exposure in case company are analyzed, then a model of foreign exchange exposure is created. Finally, the models are compared and the most suitable method is defined. According to the literature, foreign exchange exposure is the foreign exchange net cash flow. However, the results of the study show that foreign exchange risk can be managed also with net working capital. When the purchases, sales and storage are under foreign exchange risk, the best way to manage foreign exchange exposure is with combined net cash flow and net working capital method. The foreign exchange risk policy of the company defines the appropriate way to manage foreign exchange risk.

Effect of Material Recycling on the Feasibility of Solid Recovered Fuel Fired Power Plant

This master’s thesis examines the effects of increased material recycling on different waste-to-energy concepts. With background study and a developed techno-economic computational method the feasibility of chosen scenarios with different combinations of mechanical treatment and waste firing technologies can be evaluated. The background study covers the waste scene of Finland, and potential market areas Poland and France. Calculated cases concentrate on municipal solid waste treatment in the Finnish operational environment. The chosen methodology to approach the objectives is techno-economic feasibility assessment. It combines calculation methods of literature and practical engineering to define the material and energy balances in chosen scenarios. The calculation results together with other operational and financial data can be concluded to net present values compared between the scenarios. For the comparison, four scenarios, most vital and alternative between each other, are established. The baseline scenario is grate firing of source separated mixed municipal solid waste. Second scenario is fluidized bed combustion of solid recovered fuel produced in mechanical treatment process with metal separation. Third scenario combines a biomaterial separation process to the solid recovered fuels preparation and in the last scenario plastics are separated in addition to the previous operations. The results indicated that the mechanical treatment scenarios still need to overcome some problems to become feasible. Problems are related to profitability, residue disposal and technical reliability. Many uncertainties are also related to the data gathered over waste characteristics, technical performance and markets. With legislative support and development of further processing technologies and markets of the recycled materials the scenarios with biomaterial and plastic separation may operate feasibly in the future.

Remote Observation of Radioactive Permit-Required Confined Spaces – Case: Posiva Oy’s Fuel Handling Cell

Posiva Oy’s final disposal facility’s encapsulation plant will start to operate in the 2020s. Once the operation starts, the facility is designed to run more than a hundred years. The encapsulation plant will be first of its kind in the world, being part of the solution to solve a global issue of final disposal of nuclear waste. In the encapsulation plant’s fuel handling cell the spent nuclear fuel will be processed to be deposited into the Finnish bedrock, into ONKALO. In the fuel handling cell, the environment is highly radioactive forming a permit-required enclosed space. Remote observation is needed in order to monitor the fuel handling process. The purpose of this thesis is to map (Part I) and compare (Part II) remote observation methods to observe Posiva Oy’s fuel handling cell’s process, and provide a possible theoretical solution for this case. Secondary purpose for this thesis is to provide resources for other remote observation cases, as well as to inform about possible future technology to enable readiness in the design of the encapsulation plant. The approach was to theoretically analyze the mapped remote observation methods. Firstly, the methods were filtered by three environmental challenges. These are the high levels of radiation, the permit-required confined space and the hundred year timespan. Secondly, the most promising methods were selected by the experts designing the facility. Thirdly, a customized feasibility analysis was created and performed on the selected methods to rank the methods with scores. The results are the mapped methods and the feasibility analysis scores. The three highest scoring methods were radiation tolerant camera, fiberscope and audio feed. A combination of these three methods was given as a possible theoretical solution for this case. As this case is first in the world, remote observation methods for it had not been thoroughly researched. The findings in this thesis will act as initial data for the design of the fuel handling cell’s remote observation systems and can potentially effect on the overall design of the facility by providing unique and case specific information. In addition, this thesis could provide resources for other remote observation cases.