50 resultados para Bayesian techniques


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The use of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) has increased extensively in the modern radiotherapy (RT) treatments over the past two decades. Radiation dose distributions can be delivered with higher conformality with IMRT when compared to the conventional 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT). Higher conformality and target coverage increases the probability of tumour control and decreases the normal tissue complications. The primary goal of this work is to improve and evaluate the accuracy, efficiency and delivery techniques of RT treatments by using IMRT. This study evaluated the dosimetric limitations and possibilities of IMRT in small (treatments of head-and-neck, prostate and lung cancer) and large volumes (primitive neuroectodermal tumours). The dose coverage of target volumes and the sparing of critical organs were increased with IMRT when compared to 3D-CRT. The developed split field IMRT technique was found to be safe and accurate method in craniospinal irradiations. By using IMRT in simultaneous integrated boosting of biologically defined target volumes of localized prostate cancer high doses were achievable with only small increase in the treatment complexity. Biological plan optimization increased the probability of uncomplicated control on average by 28% when compared to standard IMRT delivery. Unfortunately IMRT carries also some drawbacks. In IMRT the beam modulation is realized by splitting a large radiation field to small apertures. The smaller the beam apertures are the larger the rebuild-up and rebuild-down effects are at the tissue interfaces. The limitations to use IMRT with small apertures in the treatments of small lung tumours were investigated with dosimetric film measurements. The results confirmed that the peripheral doses of the small lung tumours were decreased as the effective field size was decreased. The studied calculation algorithms were not able to model the dose deficiency of the tumours accurately. The use of small sliding window apertures of 2 mm and 4 mm decreased the tumour peripheral dose by 6% when compared to 3D-CRT treatment plan. A direct aperture based optimization (DABO) technique was examined as a solution to decrease the treatment complexity. The DABO IMRT technique was able to achieve treatment plans equivalent with the conventional IMRT fluence based optimization techniques in the concave head-and-neck target volumes. With DABO the effective field sizes were increased and the number of MUs was reduced with a factor of two. The optimality of a treatment plan and the therapeutic ratio can be further enhanced by using dose painting based on regional radiosensitivities imaged with functional imaging methods.

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Formal software development processes and well-defined development methodologies are nowadays seen as the definite way to produce high-quality software within time-limits and budgets. The variety of such high-level methodologies is huge ranging from rigorous process frameworks like CMMI and RUP to more lightweight agile methodologies. The need for managing this variety and the fact that practically every software development organization has its own unique set of development processes and methods have created a profession of software process engineers. Different kinds of informal and formal software process modeling languages are essential tools for process engineers. These are used to define processes in a way which allows easy management of processes, for example process dissemination, process tailoring and process enactment. The process modeling languages are usually used as a tool for process engineering where the main focus is on the processes themselves. This dissertation has a different emphasis. The dissertation analyses modern software development process modeling from the software developers’ point of view. The goal of the dissertation is to investigate whether the software process modeling and the software process models aid software developers in their day-to-day work and what are the main mechanisms for this. The focus of the work is on the Software Process Engineering Metamodel (SPEM) framework which is currently one of the most influential process modeling notations in software engineering. The research theme is elaborated through six scientific articles which represent the dissertation research done with process modeling during an approximately five year period. The research follows the classical engineering research discipline where the current situation is analyzed, a potentially better solution is developed and finally its implications are analyzed. The research applies a variety of different research techniques ranging from literature surveys to qualitative studies done amongst software practitioners. The key finding of the dissertation is that software process modeling notations and techniques are usually developed in process engineering terms. As a consequence the connection between the process models and actual development work is loose. In addition, the modeling standards like SPEM are partially incomplete when it comes to pragmatic process modeling needs, like light-weight modeling and combining pre-defined process components. This leads to a situation, where the full potential of process modeling techniques for aiding the daily development activities can not be achieved. Despite these difficulties the dissertation shows that it is possible to use modeling standards like SPEM to aid software developers in their work. The dissertation presents a light-weight modeling technique, which software development teams can use to quickly analyze their work practices in a more objective manner. The dissertation also shows how process modeling can be used to more easily compare different software development situations and to analyze their differences in a systematic way. Models also help to share this knowledge with others. A qualitative study done amongst Finnish software practitioners verifies the conclusions of other studies in the dissertation. Although processes and development methodologies are seen as an essential part of software development, the process modeling techniques are rarely used during the daily development work. However, the potential of these techniques intrigues the practitioners. As a conclusion the dissertation shows that process modeling techniques, most commonly used as tools for process engineers, can also be used as tools for organizing the daily software development work. This work presents theoretical solutions for bringing the process modeling closer to the ground-level software development activities. These theories are proven feasible by presenting several case studies where the modeling techniques are used e.g. to find differences in the work methods of the members of a software team and to share the process knowledge to a wider audience.

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Med prediktion avses att man skattar det framtida värdet på en observerbar storhet. Kännetecknande för det bayesianska paradigmet är att osäkerhet gällande okända storheter uttrycks i form av sannolikheter. En bayesiansk prediktiv modell är således en sannolikhetsfördelning över de möjliga värden som en observerbar, men ännu inte observerad storhet kan anta. I de artiklar som ingår i avhandlingen utvecklas metoder, vilka bl.a. tillämpas i analys av kromatografiska data i brottsutredningar. Med undantag för den första artikeln, bygger samtliga metoder på bayesiansk prediktiv modellering. I artiklarna betraktas i huvudsak tre olika typer av problem relaterade till kromatografiska data: kvantifiering, parvis matchning och klustring. I den första artikeln utvecklas en icke-parametrisk modell för mätfel av kromatografiska analyser av alkoholhalt i blodet. I den andra artikeln utvecklas en prediktiv inferensmetod för jämförelse av två stickprov. Metoden tillämpas i den tredje artik eln för jämförelse av oljeprover i syfte att kunna identifiera den förorenande källan i samband med oljeutsläpp. I den fjärde artikeln härleds en prediktiv modell för klustring av data av blandad diskret och kontinuerlig typ, vilken bl.a. tillämpas i klassificering av amfetaminprover med avseende på produktionsomgångar.

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Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

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Switching power supplies are usually implemented with a control circuitry that uses constant clock frequency turning the power semiconductor switches on and off. A drawback of this customary operating principle is that the switching frequency and harmonic frequencies are present in both the conducted and radiated EMI spectrum of the power converter. Various variable-frequency techniques have been introduced during the last decade to overcome the EMC problem. The main objective of this study was to compare the EMI and steady-state performance of a switch mode power supply with different spread-spectrum/variable-frequency methods. Another goal was to find out suitable tools for the variable-frequency EMI analysis. This thesis can be divided into three main parts: Firstly, some aspects of spectral estimation and measurement are presented. Secondly, selected spread spectrum generation techniques are presented with simulations and background information. Finally, simulations and prototype measurements from the EMC and the steady-state performance are carried out in the last part of this work. Combination of the autocorrelation function, the Welch spectrum estimate and the spectrogram were used as a substitute for ordinary Fourier methods in the EMC analysis. It was also shown that the switching function can be used in preliminary EMC analysis of a SMPS and the spectrum and autocorrelation sequence of a switching function correlates with the final EMI spectrum. This work is based on numerous simulations and measurements made with the prototype. All these simulations and measurements are made with the boost DC/DC converter. Four different variable-frequency modulation techniques in six different configurations were analyzed and the EMI performance was compared to the constant frequency operation. Output voltage and input current waveforms were also analyzed in time domain to see the effect of the spread spectrum operation on these quantities. According to the results presented in this work, spread spectrum modulation can be utilized in power converter for EMI mitigation. The results from steady-state voltage measurements show, that the variable-frequency operation of the SMPS has effect on the voltage ripple, but the ripple measured from the prototype is still acceptable in some applications. Both current and voltage ripple can be controlled with proper main circuit and controller design.

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Graphene is a material with extraordinary properties. Its mechanical and electrical properties are unparalleled but the difficulties in its production are hindering its breakthrough in on applications. Graphene is a two-dimensional material made entirely of carbon atoms and it is only a single atom thick. In this work, properties of graphene and graphene based materials are described, together with their common preparation techniques and related challenges. This Thesis concentrates on the topdown techniques, in which natural graphite is used as a precursor for the graphene production. Graphite consists of graphene sheets, which are stacked together tightly. In the top-down techniques various physical or chemical routes are used to overcome the forces keeping the graphene sheets together, and many of them are described in the Thesis. The most common chemical method is the oxidisation of graphite with strong oxidants, which creates a water-soluble graphene oxide. The properties of graphene oxide differ significantly from pristine graphene and, therefore, graphene oxide is often reduced to form materials collectively known as reduced graphene oxide. In the experimental part, the main focus is on the chemical and electrochemical reduction of graphene oxide. A novel chemical route using vanadium is introduced and compared to other common chemical graphene oxide reduction methods. A strong emphasis is placed on electrochemical reduction of graphene oxide in various solvents. Raman and infrared spectroscopy are both used in in situ spectroelectrochemistry to closely monitor the spectral changes during the reduction process. These in situ techniques allow the precise control over the reduction process and even small changes in the material can be detected. Graphene and few layer graphene were also prepared using a physical force to separate these materials from graphite. Special adsorbate molecules in aqueous solutions, together with sonic treatment, produce stable dispersions of graphene and few layer graphene sheets in water. This mechanical exfoliation method damages the graphene sheets considerable less than the chemical methods, although it suffers from a lower yield.

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This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

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In this thesis, stepwise titration with hydrochloric acid was used to obtain chemical reactivities and dissolution rates of ground limestones and dolostones of varying geological backgrounds (sedimentary, metamorphic or magmatic). Two different ways of conducting the calculations were used: 1) a first order mathematical model was used to calculate extrapolated initial reactivities (and dissolution rates) at pH 4, and 2) a second order mathematical model was used to acquire integrated mean specific chemical reaction constants (and dissolution rates) at pH 5. The calculations of the reactivities and dissolution rates were based on rate of change of pH and particle size distributions of the sample powders obtained by laser diffraction. The initial dissolution rates at pH 4 were repeatedly higher than previously reported literature values, whereas the dissolution rates at pH 5 were consistent with former observations. Reactivities and dissolution rates varied substantially for dolostones, whereas for limestones and calcareous rocks, the variation can be primarily explained by relatively large sample standard deviations. A list of the dolostone samples in a decreasing order of initial reactivity at pH 4 is: 1) metamorphic dolostones with calcite/dolomite ratio higher than about 6% 2) sedimentary dolostones without calcite 3) metamorphic dolostones with calcite/dolomite ratio lower than about 6% The reactivities and dissolution rates were accompanied by a wide range of experimental techniques to characterise the samples, to reveal how different rocks changed during the dissolution process, and to find out which factors had an influence on their chemical reactivities. An emphasis was put on chemical and morphological changes taking place at the surfaces of the particles via X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Supporting chemical information was obtained with X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) measurements of the samples, and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES) measurements of the solutions used in the reactivity experiments. Information on mineral (modal) compositions and their occurrence was provided by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Energy Dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX) and studying thin sections with a petrographic microscope. BET (Brunauer, Emmet, Teller) surface areas were determined from nitrogen physisorption data. Factors increasing chemical reactivity of dolostones and calcareous rocks were found to be sedimentary origin, higher calcite concentration and smaller quartz concentration. Also, it is assumed that finer grain size and larger BET surface areas increase the reactivity although no certain correlation was found in this thesis. Atomic concentrations did not correlate with the reactivities. Sedimentary dolostones, unlike metamorphic ones, were found to have porous surface structures after dissolution. In addition, conventional (XPS) and synchrotron based (HRXPS) X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy were used to study bonding environments on calcite and dolomite surfaces. Both samples are insulators, which is why neutralisation measures such as electron flood gun and a conductive mask were used. Surface core level shifts of 0.7 ± 0.1 eV for Ca 2p spectrum of calcite and 0.75 ± 0.05 eV for Mg 2p and Ca 3s spectra of dolomite were obtained. Some satellite features of Ca 2p, C 1s and O 1s spectra have been suggested to be bulk plasmons. The origin of carbide bonds was suggested to be beam assisted interaction with hydrocarbons found on the surface. The results presented in this thesis are of particular importance for choosing raw materials for wet Flue Gas Desulphurisation (FGD) and construction industry. Wet FGD benefits from high reactivity, whereas construction industry can take advantage of slow reactivity of carbonate rocks often used in the facades of fine buildings. Information on chemical bonding environments may help to create more accurate models for water-rock interactions of carbonates.

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This thesis considers optimization problems arising in printed circuit board assembly. Especially, the case in which the electronic components of a single circuit board are placed using a single placement machine is studied. Although there is a large number of different placement machines, the use of collect-and-place -type gantry machines is discussed because of their flexibility and increasing popularity in the industry. Instead of solving the entire control optimization problem of a collect-andplace machine with a single application, the problem is divided into multiple subproblems because of its hard combinatorial nature. This dividing technique is called hierarchical decomposition. All the subproblems of the one PCB - one machine -context are described, classified and reviewed. The derived subproblems are then either solved with exact methods or new heuristic algorithms are developed and applied. The exact methods include, for example, a greedy algorithm and a solution based on dynamic programming. Some of the proposed heuristics contain constructive parts while others utilize local search or are based on frequency calculations. For the heuristics, it is made sure with comprehensive experimental tests that they are applicable and feasible. A number of quality functions will be proposed for evaluation and applied to the subproblems. In the experimental tests, artificially generated data from Markov-models and data from real-world PCB production are used. The thesis consists of an introduction and of five publications where the developed and used solution methods are described in their full detail. For all the problems stated in this thesis, the methods proposed are efficient enough to be used in the PCB assembly production in practice and are readily applicable in the PCB manufacturing industry.

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Acid sulfate (a.s.) soils constitute a major environmental issue. Severe ecological damage results from the considerable amounts of acidity and metals leached by these soils in the recipient watercourses. As even small hot spots may affect large areas of coastal waters, mapping represents a fundamental step in the management and mitigation of a.s. soil environmental risks (i.e. to target strategic areas). Traditional mapping in the field is time-consuming and therefore expensive. Additional more cost-effective techniques have, thus, to be developed in order to narrow down and define in detail the areas of interest. The primary aim of this thesis was to assess different spatial modeling techniques for a.s. soil mapping, and the characterization of soil properties relevant for a.s. soil environmental risk management, using all available data: soil and water samples, as well as datalayers (e.g. geological and geophysical). Different spatial modeling techniques were applied at catchment or regional scale. Two artificial neural networks were assessed on the Sirppujoki River catchment (c. 440 km2) located in southwestern Finland, while fuzzy logic was assessed on several areas along the Finnish coast. Quaternary geology, aerogeophysics and slope data (derived from a digital elevation model) were utilized as evidential datalayers. The methods also required the use of point datasets (i.e. soil profiles corresponding to known a.s. or non-a.s. soil occurrences) for training and/or validation within the modeling processes. Applying these methods, various maps were generated: probability maps for a.s. soil occurrence, as well as predictive maps for different soil properties (sulfur content, organic matter content and critical sulfide depth). The two assessed artificial neural networks (ANNs) demonstrated good classification abilities for a.s. soil probability mapping at catchment scale. Slightly better results were achieved using a Radial Basis Function (RBF) -based ANN than a Radial Basis Functional Link Net (RBFLN) method, narrowing down more accurately the most probable areas for a.s. soil occurrence and defining more properly the least probable areas. The RBF-based ANN also demonstrated promising results for the characterization of different soil properties in the most probable a.s. soil areas at catchment scale. Since a.s. soil areas constitute highly productive lands for agricultural purpose, the combination of a probability map with more specific soil property predictive maps offers a valuable toolset to more precisely target strategic areas for subsequent environmental risk management. Notably, the use of laser scanning (i.e. Light Detection And Ranging, LiDAR) data enabled a more precise definition of a.s. soil probability areas, as well as the soil property modeling classes for sulfur content and the critical sulfide depth. Given suitable training/validation points, ANNs can be trained to yield a more precise modeling of the occurrence of a.s. soils and their properties. By contrast, fuzzy logic represents a simple, fast and objective alternative to carry out preliminary surveys, at catchment or regional scale, in areas offering a limited amount of data. This method enables delimiting and prioritizing the most probable areas for a.s soil occurrence, which can be particularly useful in the field. Being easily transferable from area to area, fuzzy logic modeling can be carried out at regional scale. Mapping at this scale would be extremely time-consuming through manual assessment. The use of spatial modeling techniques enables the creation of valid and comparable maps, which represents an important development within the a.s. soil mapping process. The a.s. soil mapping was also assessed using water chemistry data for 24 different catchments along the Finnish coast (in all, covering c. 21,300 km2) which were mapped with different methods (i.e. conventional mapping, fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network). Two a.s. soil related indicators measured in the river water (sulfate content and sulfate/chloride ratio) were compared to the extent of the most probable areas for a.s. soils in the surveyed catchments. High sulfate contents and sulfate/chloride ratios measured in most of the rivers demonstrated the presence of a.s. soils in the corresponding catchments. The calculated extent of the most probable a.s. soil areas is supported by independent data on water chemistry, suggesting that the a.s. soil probability maps created with different methods are reliable and comparable.

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The two main objectives of Bayesian inference are to estimate parameters and states. In this thesis, we are interested in how this can be done in the framework of state-space models when there is a complete or partial lack of knowledge of the initial state of a continuous nonlinear dynamical system. In literature, similar problems have been referred to as diffuse initialization problems. This is achieved first by extending the previously developed diffuse initialization Kalman filtering techniques for discrete systems to continuous systems. The second objective is to estimate parameters using MCMC methods with a likelihood function obtained from the diffuse filtering. These methods are tried on the data collected from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, DRC in order to estimate the parameters of the system.

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The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

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This study reviews the research on interaction techniques and methods that could be applied in mobile augmented reality scenarios. The review is focused on themost recent advances and considers especially the use of head-mounted displays. Inthe review process, we have followed a systematic approach, which makes the reviewtransparent, repeatable, and less prone to human errors than if it was conducted in amore traditional manner. The main research subjects covered in the review are headorientation and gaze-tracking, gestures and body part-tracking, and multimodality– as far as the subjects are related to human-computer interaction. Besides these,also a number of other areas of interest will be discussed.