Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

The influence of high cable penetration in distribution networks on earth fault currents and the operation of relay protection.

Recent Storms in Nordic countries were a reason of long power outages in huge territories. After these disasters distribution networks' operators faced with a problem how to provide adequate quality of supply in such situation. The decision of utilization cable lines rather than overhead lines were made, which brings new features to distribution networks. The main idea of this work is a complex analysis of medium voltage distribution networks with long cable lines. High value of cable’s specific capacitance and length of lines determine such problems as: high values of earth fault currents, excessive amount of reactive power flow from distribution to transmission network, possibility of a high voltage level at the receiving end of cable feeders. However the core tasks was to estimate functional ability of the earth fault protection and the possibility to utilize simplified formulas for operating setting calculations in this network. In order to provide justify solution or evaluation of mentioned above problems corresponding calculations were made and in order to analyze behavior of relay protection principles PSCAD model of the examined network have been created. Evaluation of the voltage rise in the end of a cable line have educed absence of a dangerous increase in a voltage level, while excessive value of reactive power can be a reason of final penalty according to the Finish regulations. It was proved and calculated that for this networks compensation of earth fault currents should be implemented. In PSCAD models of the electrical grid with isolated neutral, central compensation and hybrid compensation were created. For the network with hybrid compensation methodology which allows to select number and rated power of distributed arc suppression coils have been offered. Based on the obtained results from experiments it was determined that in order to guarantee selective and reliable operation of the relay protection should be utilized hybrid compensation with connection of high-ohmic resistor. Directional and admittance based relay protection were tested under these conditions and advantageous of the novel protection were revealed. However, for electrical grids with extensive cabling necessity of a complex approach to the relay protection were explained and illustrated. Thus, in order to organize reliable earth fault protection is recommended to utilize both intermittent and conventional relay protection with operational settings calculated by the use of simplified formulas.

Optimal trading of wind power in the short term market

The energy reform, which is happening all over the world, is caused by the common concern of the future of the humankind in our shared planet. In order to keep the effects of the global warming inside of a certain limit, the use of fossil fuels must be reduced. The marginal costs of the renewable sources, RES are quite high, since they are new technology. In order to induce the implementation of RES to the power grid and lower the marginal costs, subsidies were developed in order to make the use of RES more profitable. From the RES perspective the current market is developed to favor conventional generation, which mainly uses fossil fuels. Intermittent generation, like wind power, is penalized in the electricity market since it is intermittent and thus diffi-cult to control. Therefore, the need of regulation and thus the regulation costs to the producer differ, depending on what kind of generation market participant owns. In this thesis it is studied if there is a way for market participant, who has wind power to use the special characteristics of electricity market Nord Pool and thus reach the gap between conventional generation and the intermittent generation only by placing bids to the market. Thus, an optimal bid is introduced, which purpose is to minimize the regulation costs and thus lower the marginal costs of wind power. In order to make real life simulations in Nord Pool, a wind power forecast model was created. The simulations were done in years 2009 and 2010 by using a real wind power data provided by Hyötytuuli, market data from Nord Pool and wind forecast data provided by Finnish Meteorological Institute. The optimal bid needs probability intervals and therefore the methodology to create probability distributions is introduced in this thesis. In the end of the thesis it is shown that the optimal bidding improves the position of wind power producer in the electricity market.

Comparison of Different Concentrated Solar Power Collector Designs and Development of a Linear Fresnel Solar Collector Model

Concentrated solar power (CSP) is a renewable energy technology, which could contribute to overcoming global problems related to pollution emissions and increasing energy demand. CSP utilizes solar irradiation, which is a variable source of energy. In order to utilize CSP technology in energy production and reliably operate a solar field including thermal energy storage system, dynamic simulation tools are needed in order to study the dynamics of the solar field, to optimize production and develop control systems. The object of this Master’s Thesis is to compare different concentrated solar power technologies and configure a dynamic solar field model of one selected CSP field design in the dynamic simulation program Apros, owned by VTT and Fortum. The configured model is based on German Novatec Solar’s linear Fresnel reflector design. Solar collector components including dimensions and performance calculation were developed, as well as a simple solar field control system. The preliminary simulation results of two simulation cases under clear sky conditions were good; the desired and stable superheated steam conditions were maintained in both cases, while, as expected, the amount of steam produced was reduced in the case having lower irradiation conditions. As a result of the model development process, it can be concluded, that the configured model is working successfully and that Apros is a very capable and flexible tool for configuring new solar field models and control systems and simulating solar field dynamic behaviour.

Lightweight, liquid-cooled, direct-drive generator for highpower wind turbines: motivation, concept, and performance

Thesis: A liquid-cooled, direct-drive, permanent-magnet, synchronous generator with helical, double-layer, non-overlapping windings formed from a copper conductor with a coaxial internal coolant conduit offers an excellent combination of attributes to reliably provide economic wind power for the coming generation of wind turbines with power ratings between 5 and 20MW. A generator based on the liquid-cooled architecture proposed here will be reliable and cost effective. Its smaller size and mass will reduce build, transport, and installation costs. Summary: Converting wind energy into electricity and transmitting it to an electrical power grid to supply consumers is a relatively new and rapidly developing method of electricity generation. In the most recent decade, the increase in wind energy’s share of overall energy production has been remarkable. Thousands of land-based and offshore wind turbines have been commissioned around the globe, and thousands more are being planned. The technologies have evolved rapidly and are continuing to evolve, and wind turbine sizes and power ratings are continually increasing. Many of the newer wind turbine designs feature drivetrains based on Direct-Drive, Permanent-Magnet, Synchronous Generators (DD-PMSGs). Being low-speed high-torque machines, the diameters of air-cooled DD-PMSGs become very large to generate higher levels of power. The largest direct-drive wind turbine generator in operation today, rated just below 8MW, is 12m in diameter and approximately 220 tonne. To generate higher powers, traditional DD-PMSGs would need to become extraordinarily large. A 15MW air-cooled direct-drive generator would be of colossal size and tremendous mass and no longer economically viable. One alternative to increasing diameter is instead to increase torque density. In a permanent magnet machine, this is best done by increasing the linear current density of the stator windings. However, greater linear current density results in more Joule heating, and the additional heat cannot be removed practically using a traditional air-cooling approach. Direct liquid cooling is more effective, and when applied directly to the stator windings, higher linear current densities can be sustained leading to substantial increases in torque density. The higher torque density, in turn, makes possible significant reductions in DD-PMSG size. Over the past five years, a multidisciplinary team of researchers has applied a holistic approach to explore the application of liquid cooling to permanent-magnet wind turbine generator design. The approach has considered wind energy markets and the economics of wind power, system reliability, electromagnetic behaviors and design, thermal design and performance, mechanical architecture and behaviors, and the performance modeling of installed wind turbines. This dissertation is based on seven publications that chronicle the work. The primary outcomes are the proposal of a novel generator architecture, a multidisciplinary set of analyses to predict the behaviors, and experimentation to demonstrate some of the key principles and validate the analyses. The proposed generator concept is a direct-drive, surface-magnet, synchronous generator with fractional-slot, duplex-helical, double-layer, non-overlapping windings formed from a copper conductor with a coaxial internal coolant conduit to accommodate liquid coolant flow. The novel liquid-cooling architecture is referred to as LC DD-PMSG. The first of the seven publications summarized in this dissertation discusses the technological and economic benefits and limitations of DD-PMSGs as applied to wind energy. The second publication addresses the long-term reliability of the proposed LC DD-PMSG design. Publication 3 examines the machine’s electromagnetic design, and Publication 4 introduces an optimization tool developed to quickly define basic machine parameters. The static and harmonic behaviors of the stator and rotor wheel structures are the subject of Publication 5. And finally, Publications 6 and 7 examine steady-state and transient thermal behaviors. There have been a number of ancillary concrete outcomes associated with the work including the following. X Intellectual Property (IP) for direct liquid cooling of stator windings via an embedded coaxial coolant conduit, IP for a lightweight wheel structure for lowspeed, high-torque electrical machinery, and IP for numerous other details of the LC DD-PMSG design X Analytical demonstrations of the equivalent reliability of the LC DD-PMSG; validated electromagnetic, thermal, structural, and dynamic prediction models; and an analytical demonstration of the superior partial load efficiency and annual energy output of an LC DD-PMSG design X A set of LC DD-PMSG design guidelines and an analytical tool to establish optimal geometries quickly and early on X Proposed 8 MW LC DD-PMSG concepts for both inner and outer rotor configurations Furthermore, three technologies introduced could be relevant across a broader spectrum of applications. 1) The cost optimization methodology developed as part of this work could be further improved to produce a simple tool to establish base geometries for various electromagnetic machine types. 2) The layered sheet-steel element construction technology used for the LC DD-PMSG stator and rotor wheel structures has potential for a wide range of applications. And finally, 3) the direct liquid-cooling technology could be beneficial in higher speed electromotive applications such as vehicular electric drives.

Optimal processing chain for waste power plant

This study is done to examine waste power plant’s optimal processing chain and it is important to consider from several points of view on why one option is better than the other. This is to insure that the right decision is made. Incineration of waste has devel-oped to be one decent option for waste disposal. There are several legislation matters and technical options to consider when starting up a waste power plant. From the tech-niques pretreatment, burner and flue gas cleaning are the biggest ones to consider. The treatment of incineration residues is important since it can be very harmful for the envi-ronment. The actual energy production from waste is not highly efficient and there are several harmful compounds emitted. Recycling of waste before incineration is not very typical and there are not many recycling options for materials that cannot be easily re-cycled to same product. Life cycle assessment is a good option for studying the envi-ronmental effect of the system. It has four phases that are part of the iterative study process. In this study the case environment is a waste power plant. The modeling of the plant is done with GaBi 6 software and the scope is from gate-to-grave. There are three different scenarios, from which the first and second are compared to each other to reach conclusions. Zero scenario is part of the study to demonstrate situation without the power plant. The power plant in this study is recycling some materials in scenario one and in scenario two even more materials and utilize the bottom ash more ways than one. The model has the substitutive processes for the materials when they are not recycled in the plant. The global warming potential results show that scenario one is the best option. The variable costs that have been considered tell the same result. The conclusion is that the waste power plant should not recycle more and utilize bottom ash in a number of ways. The area is not ready for that kind of utilization and production from recycled materials.