MCMC Analysis for Optimization of Stochastic Models

In any decision making under uncertainties, the goal is mostly to minimize the expected cost. The minimization of cost under uncertainties is usually done by optimization. For simple models, the optimization can easily be done using deterministic methods.However, many models practically contain some complex and varying parameters that can not easily be taken into account using usual deterministic methods of optimization. Thus, it is very important to look for other methods that can be used to get insight into such models. MCMC method is one of the practical methods that can be used for optimization of stochastic models under uncertainty. This method is based on simulation that provides a general methodology which can be applied in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state models. MCMC method is very important for practical applications because it is a uni ed estimation procedure which simultaneously estimates both parameters and state variables. MCMC computes the distribution of the state variables and parameters of the given data measurements. MCMC method is faster in terms of computing time when compared to other optimization methods. This thesis discusses the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for optimization of Stochastic models under uncertainties .The thesis begins with a short discussion about Bayesian Inference, MCMC and Stochastic optimization methods. Then an example is given of how MCMC can be applied for maximizing production at a minimum cost in a chemical reaction process. It is observed that this method performs better in optimizing the given cost function with a very high certainty.

Tietoliikennekustannusten optimointi reaaliaikaisessa paikkatietojärjestelmässä

Tässä diplomityössä kehitettiin paikkatietojärjestelmä, joka mahdollistaa ajoneuvojen seurannan ja aikatauluennusteiden tuottamisen reaaliaikaisesti joukkoliikenteen informaatiojärjestelmien tarpeisiin. Tavoitteena oli toteuttaa vastaavan jo käytössä olleen järjestelmän toiminnallisuudet sillä tavoin tehokkaammin, että saataisiin merkittävästi pienennettyä tiedonsiirrossa käytettyä datamäärää ja järjestelmän käytöstä aiheutuvia kustannuksia. Työssä tutkittiin tiedonsiirtoprotokollakerrosten ja protokollasuunnitteluun liittyvien ratkaisujen, kuten viestien yhdistelyn, tietotyyppien valinnan sekä yhteyksien uudelleenkäytön, vaikutusta tarvittavaan tiedonsiirtomäärään. Lopputuloksena vanhoja vastaavien toimintojen vaatima datamäärä saatiin huonoimmassakin tilanteessa puoleen entisestä. Lisäksi niiden logiikan uudistamisen todettiin saavan aikaan tätäkin suuremmat säästöt. Esiin nousikin erityisesti juuri sovelluslogiikan merkitys. Suurimmalta osin sen perusteella määräytyy, kuinka paljon viestintää järjestelmässä tarvitaan. Näin ollen sillä on myös hyvin suuri vaikutus siihen, mikä tietoliikenteen kokonaismäärä lopulta on.

Active inverter output filtering methods

Frequency converters are widely used in the industry to enable better controllability and efficiency of variable speed AC motor drives. Despite these advantages, certain challenges concerning the inverter and motor interfacing have been present for decades. As insulated gate bipolar transistors entered the market, the inverter output voltage transition rate significantly increased compared with their predecessors. Inverters operate based on pulse width modulation of the output voltage, and the steep voltage edge fed by the inverter produces a motor terminal overvoltage. The overvoltage causes extra stress to the motor insulation, which may lead to a prematuremotor failure. The overvoltage is not generated by the inverter alone, but also by the sum effect of the motor cable length and the impedance mismatch between the cable and the motor. Many solutions have been shown to limit the overvoltage, and the mainstream products focus on passive filters. This doctoral thesis studies an alternative methodology for motor overvoltage reduction. The focus is on minimization of the passive filter dimensions, physical and electrical, or better yet, on operation without any filter. This is achieved by additional inverter control and modulation. The studied methods are implemented on different inverter topologies, varying in nominal voltage and current.For two-level inverters, the studied method is termed active du/dt. It consists of a small output LC filter, which is controlled by an independent modulator. The overvoltage is limited by a reduced voltage transition rate. For multilevel inverters, an overvoltage mitigation method operating without a passive filter, called edge modulation, is implemented. The method uses the capability of the inverter to produce two switching operations in the same direction to cancel the oscillating voltages of opposite phases. For parallel inverters, two methods are studied. They are both intended for two-level inverters, but the first uses individual motor cables from each inverter while the other topology applies output inductors. The overvoltage is reduced by interleaving the switching operations to produce a similar oscillation accumulation as with the edge modulation. The implementation of these methods is discussed in detail, and the necessary modifications to the control system of the inverter are presented. Each method is experimentally verified by operating industrial frequency converters with the modified control. All the methods are found feasible, and they provide sufficient overvoltage protection. The limitations and challenges brought about by the methods are discussed.

Practical Framework for Monitoring the Performance of Agile IT Projects in an Output-Based Outsourcing Context

Over the past decade, organizations worldwide have begun to widely adopt agile software development practices, which offer greater flexibility to frequently changing business requirements, better cost effectiveness due to minimization of waste, faster time-to-market, and closer collaboration between business and IT. At the same time, IT services are continuing to be increasingly outsourced to third parties providing the organizations with the ability to focus on their core capabilities as well as to take advantage of better demand scalability, access to specialized skills, and cost benefits. An output-based pricing model, where the customers pay directly for the functionality that was delivered rather than the effort spent, is quickly becoming a new trend in IT outsourcing allowing to transfer the risk away from the customer while at the same time offering much better incentives for the supplier to optimize processes and improve efficiency, and consequently producing a true win-win outcome. Despite the widespread adoption of both agile practices and output-based outsourcing, there is little formal research available on how the two can be effectively combined in practice. Moreover, little practical guidance exists on how companies can measure the performance of their agile projects, which are being delivered in an output-based outsourced environment. This research attempted to shed light on this issue by developing a practical project monitoring framework which may be readily applied by organizations to monitor the performance of agile projects in an output-based outsourcing context, thus taking advantage of the combined benefits of such an arrangement Modified from action research approach, this research was divided into two cycles, each consisting of the Identification, Analysis, Verification, and Conclusion phases. During Cycle 1, a list of six Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) was proposed and accepted by the professionals in the studied multinational organization, which formed the core of the proposed framework and answered the first research sub-question of what needs to be measured. In Cycle 2, a more in-depth analysis was provided for each of the suggested Key Performance Indicators including the techniques for capturing, calculating, and evaluating the information provided by each KPI. In the course of Cycle 2, the second research sub-question was answered, clarifying how the data for each KPI needed to be measured, interpreted, and acted upon. Consequently, after two incremental research cycles, the primary research question was answered describing the practical framework that may be used for monitoring the performance of agile IT projects delivered in an output-based outsourcing context. This framework was evaluated by the professionals within the context of the studied organization and received positive feedback across all four evaluation criteria set forth in this research, including the low overhead of data collection, high value of provided information, ease of understandability of the metric dashboard, and high generalizability of the proposed framework.

Terveyskorttiprojektin kustannusvaikuttavuuden arviointi

Tämän kandidaatintyön lähtökohtana oli selvittää Helsingin kaupungin Terveysasemaosaston Terveyskorttiprojektin aikana toteutetun pilotin taloudellisuutta ja vaikuttavuutta rinnakkaispalveluna. Kirjallisuuskatsauksen tavoitteena oli selvittää millaisilla metodeilla kustannusvaikuttavuutta voidaan analysoida terveydenhuollossa. Lisäksi tavoitteena oli selvittää kyseisen projektin kustannusten suhdetta palvelun vaikuttavuuteen, eli muutoksiin asiakkaiden terveystottumuksissa. Keskeisimpiä kustannusvaikuttavuuden arviointimenetelmiä terveydenhuollossa ovat kustannusten minimointianalyysi (KMA), kustannus-hyötyanalyysi (KHA), kustannus-vaikuttavuusanalyysi (KVA) ja kustannus-utiliteettianalyysi (KUA). Käytännön päätöksenteon analyyttinen mallintaminen empirian- ja näyttöön perustuvan tiedon pohjalta osoittautui kirjallisuuskatsauksessa myös päteväksi tavaksi arvioida palveluiden vaikuttavuutta. Terveyskorttiprojektin suurimmat kustannussäästöt, verrattuna perinteiseen vastaanotto-malliin, muodostuivat verkkopalvelun seulontavaiheessa. Terveyden edistämisen osa-alueisiin painonhallinta, liikunta ja ravitsemus palvelu soveltui hyvin. Palvelun käytettävyyden kehittämishaasteiksi muodostuivat tulosten perusteella tekniset ongelmat, vuoro-vaikutuksen puute ja asiakkaan oman motivaation löytyminen.

Painesuodattimen automatisoidun kankaanvaihtolaitteen kehittäminen ja tekninen tuotteistaminen

Tässä työssä tarkastellaan CE-merkintään vaadittavia teknisen tuotteistamisen vaiheita käyttäen esimerkkinä painesuodattimen automatisoidun kankaanvaihtolaitteen suunnitteluprosessia. Työssä selvitetään, mitä vaihtoehtoja on painesuodattimen lisälaitteiden luokitteluksi, että ne saadaan tuotteistettua Euroopan talousalueella (ETA). Esimerkkinä käytettävä kankaanvaihtolaite on suunniteltu käyttäen järjestelmällisen koneensuunnittelun menetelmää. CE-merkinnän vaatima riskianalyysi on tehty laitteelle standardin SFS-EN ISO 12100:2010 mukaisesti. Tuloksena saatu laitteen prototyyppi täyttää pääosin laitteelle asetettavat vaatimukset. Kustannusarvio ylittää kuitenkin toivotun omakustannehinnan valoverhojen suhteellisen kalliin hinnan takia. Kustannusarvion mukaan prototyyppi voidaan kuitenkin valmistaa edullisesti, sillä valoverhot eivät ole pakollisia laitteen toiminnallisissa testeissä. Ennen tuotteistamista valoverhojen korvaamisen mahdollisuutta muulla turvatekniikalla on kuitenkin tutkittava. Suunnitteluvaiheen jälkeen laitteen turvallisuuden voidaan todeta olevan vähintään riittävällä tasolla. Riskianalyysi on kuitenkin päivitettävä dokumentti, ja laitteen turvallisuus täytyy varmistaa prototyyppiä testaamalla. Työn perusteella voidaan todeta, että huomioimalla laitteen mahdollisesti aiheuttamat vaaratilanteet jo tuotesuunnittelun alussa, voidaan tuotekehitysprosessia nopeuttaa. Tunnistamalla vaaratilanteet suunnittelun varhaisessa vaiheessa voidaan vähentää riskien määrää, ja siten tarvetta riskien pienentämiselle. Näin vähennetään rakenteen suunnittelun ja riskianalyysin iterointikierrosten määrää, jolloin myös tuotteistamisprosessi nopeutuu.

Risk management measures for REACH registered intermediate substances in pulp mill

Tämän työn tavoitteena on antaa kuvaus riskinhallintamenetelmistä viidelle välituotekemikaalille, joita käytetään Stora Enson Imatran tehtailla. Välituotekemikaalit ovat mustalipeä, viherlipeä, valkolipeä, natriumbisulfiitti ja natriumsulfiitti. Nämä kemikaalit ovat jo rekisteröityjä ECHA:an ja rekisteröintiin liittyen ECHA:an on toimitettava myös kuvaus riskinhallintamenetelmistä. Työn alussa kuvaillaan työn kannalta olennaiset säädökset ja viranomaiset, jotka valvovat kemikaalien käyttöä ja valmistusta Euroopan Unionin alueella. Tämän jälkeen kerrotaan yleisesti välituotekemikaalien rekisteröintikriteereistä. Työn loppuosa käsittää kuvauksen riskinhallintamenetelmistä jokaiselle kemikaalille. Riskinhallintamenetelmät sisältävät eristyksen teknisin keinoin, menettelytapa- ja valvontatekniikat, johtamistavat ja henkilökunnan koulutuksen ja välituotekemikaalien kuljetuksen. Myös jokaisen kemikaalin ominaisuudet on kuvattu ja lyhyt prosessikuvaus kemikaalien valmistuksesta ja käytöstä on esitetty helpottamaan ymmärtämistä.

Unequal Teeth Widths for Torque Ripple Reduction in Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines With Fractional-Slot Non-Overlapping Windings

Permanent magnet synchronous machines with fractional-slot non-overlapping windings (FSPMSM), also known as tooth-coil winding permanent magnet synchronous machines (TCW PMSM), have been under intensive research during the latest decade. There are many optimization routines explained and implemented in the literature in order to improve the characteristics of this machine type. This paper introduces a new technique for torque ripple minimization in TCW PMSM. The source of torque harmonics is also described. The low order torque harmonics can be harmful for a variety of applications, such as direct drive wind generators, direct drive light vehicle electrical motors, and for some high precision servo applications. The reduction of the torque ripple harmonics with the lowest orders (6th and 12th) is realized by machine geometry optimization technique using finite element analysis (FEA). The presented optimization technique includes the stator geometry adjustment in TCW PMSMs with rotor surface permanent magnets and with rotor embedded permanent magnets. Influence of the permanent magnet skewing on the torque ripple reduction and cogging torque elimination was also investigated. It was implemented separately and together with the stator optimization technique. As a result, the reduction of some torque ripple harmonics was attained.

Optimizing the Performance of a Heat Exchanger Network

This research is the continuation and a joint work with a master thesis that has been done in this department recently by Hemamali Chathurangani Yashika Jayathunga. The mathematical system of the equations in the designed Heat Exchanger Network synthesis has been extended by adding a number of equipment; such as heat exchangers, mixers and dividers. The solutions of the system is obtained and the optimal setting of the valves (Each divider contains a valve) is calculated by introducing grid-based optimization. Finding the best position of the valves will lead to maximization of the transferred heat in the hot stream and minimization of the pressure drop in the cold stream. The aim of the following thesis will be achieved by practicing the cost optimization to model an optimized network.

Thermal modelling of commercial lithium-ion batteries

The accelerating adoption of electrical technologies in vehicles over the recent years has led to an increase in the research on electrochemical energy storage systems, which are among the key elements in these technologies. The application of electrochemical energy storage systems for instance in hybrid electrical vehicles (HEVs) or hybrid mobile working machines allows tolerating high power peaks, leading to an opportunity to downsize the internal combustion engine and reduce fuel consumption, and therefore, CO2 and other emissions. Further, the application of electrochemical energy storage systems provides an option of kinetic and potential energy recuperation. Presently, the lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery is considered the most suitable electrochemical energy storage type in HEVs and hybrid mobile working machines. However, the intensive operating cycle produces high heat losses in the Li-ion battery, which increase its operating temperature. The Li-ion battery operation at high temperatures accelerates the ageing of the battery, and in the worst case, may lead to a thermal runaway and fire. Therefore, an appropriate Li-ion battery cooling system should be provided for the temperature control in applications such as HEVs and mobile working machines. In this doctoral dissertation, methods are presented to set up a thermal model of a single Li-ion cell and a more complex battery module, which can be used if full information about the battery chemistry is not available. In addition, a non-destructive method is developed for the cell thermal characterization, which allows to measure the thermal parameters at different states of charge and in different points of cell surface. The proposed models and the cell thermal characterization method have been verified by experimental measurements. The minimization of high thermal non-uniformity, which was detected in the pouch cell during its operation with a high C-rate current, was analysed by applying a simplified pouch cell 3D thermal model. In the analysis, heat pipes were incorporated into the pouch cell cooling system, and an optimization algorithm was generated for the estimation of the optimalplacement of heat pipes in the pouch cell cooling system. An analysis of the application of heat pipes to the pouch cell cooling system shows that heat pipes significantly decrease the temperature non-uniformity on the cell surface, and therefore, heat pipes were recommended for the enhancement of the pouch cell cooling system.