28 resultados para best estimate method


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Tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia, mikä olisi parhaiten case-yritykselle sopiva menetelmä tulla tekemään kauppaa ulkomaan markkinoille. Kaikki yleiset kansainvälisille markkinoilletulomenetelmät esitetään ja niiden edut ja haitat tuodaan esille. Selvittäessä tehtävänantajayrityksen resurssit, odotukset ja vaatimukset todetaan, että yhteistyössä tehtävä markkinoilletulo on pätevin vaihtoehto. Tämän jälkeen valitaan parhaiten tarkoitukseen sopiva yritys ennalta valitusta yritysvaihtoehtojen ryhmästä ja testataan tämän yrityksen yhteistyösopivuus case-yrityksen kanssa. Yritysten välinen yhteistyösopivuus arvioidaan analysoimalla yritykset haastattelujen avulla ja tutkielmassa esitettyjen teorioiden avulla. Sopivuus todetaan hyväksi, kattaen 71 prosenttia analysoiduista kohdista. Kaksikymmentäyhdeksän prosenttia kohdista todetaan kohdiksi, joissa yritysten välinen yhteisymmärrys ei ole toimeksiantajayrityksen minimivaatimukset täyttävää. Näitä kohtia tullaan käyttämään suunnittelun pohjana kun suunnitellaan jatkoneuvotteluja yhteistyön käynnistämiseksi.

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During the last few years, the discussion on the marginal social costs of transportation has been active. Applying the externalities as a tool to control transport would fulfil the polluter pays principle and simultaneously create a fair control method between the transport modes. This report presents the results of two calculation algorithms developed to estimate the marginal social costs based on the externalities of air pollution. The first algorithm calculates the future scenarios of sea transport traffic externalities until 2015 in the Gulf of Finland. The second algorithm calculates the externalities of Russian passenger car transit traffic via Finland by taking into account both sea and road transport. The algorithm estimates the ship-originated emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx), particulates (PM) and the externalities for each year from 2007 to 2015. The total NOx emissions in the Gulf of Finland from the six ship types were almost 75.7 kilotons (Table 5.2) in 2007. The ship types are: passenger (including cruisers and ROPAX vessels), tanker, general cargo, Ro-Ro, container and bulk vessels. Due to the increase of traffic, the estimation for NOx emissions for 2015 is 112 kilotons. The NOx emission estimation for the whole Baltic Sea shipping is 370 kilotons in 2006 (Stipa & al, 2007). The total marginal social costs due to ship-originated CO2, NOx, SOx and PM emissions in the GOF were calculated to almost 175 million Euros in 2007. The costs will increase to nearly 214 million Euros in 2015 due to the traffic growth. The major part of the externalities is due to CO2 emissions. If we neglect the CO2 emissions by extracting the CO2 externalities from the results, we get the total externalities of 57 million Euros in 2007. After eight years (2015), the externalities would be 28 % lower, 41 million Euros (Table 8.1). This is the result of the sulphur emissions reducing regulation of marine fuels. The majority of the new car transit goes through Finland to Russia due to the lack of port capacity in Russia. The amount of cars was 339 620 vehicles (Statistics of Finnish Customs 2008) in 2005. The externalities are calculated for the transportation of passenger vehicles as follows: by ship to a Finnish port and, after that, by trucks to the Russian border checkpoint. The externalities are between 2 – 3 million Euros (year 2000 cost level) for each route. The ports included in the calculations are Hamina, Hanko, Kotka and Turku. With the Euro-3 standard trucks, the port of Hanko would be the best choice to transport the vehicles. This is because of lower emissions by new trucks and the saved transport distance of a ship. If the trucks are more polluting Euro 1 level trucks, the port of Kotka would be the best choice. This indicates that the truck emissions have a considerable effect on the externalities and that the transportation of light cargo, such as passenger cars by ship, produces considerably high emission externalities. The emission externalities approach offers a new insight for valuing the multiple traffic modes. However, the calculation of the marginal social costs based on the air emission externalities should not be regarded as a ready-made calculation system. The system is clearly in the need of some improvement but it can already be considered as a potential tool for political decision making.

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Induction motors are widely used in industry, and they are generally considered very reliable. They often have a critical role in industrial processes, and their failure can lead to significant losses as a result of shutdown times. Typical failures of induction motors can be classified into stator, rotor, and bearing failures. One of the reasons for a bearing damage and eventually a bearing failure is bearing currents. Bearing currents in induction motors can be divided into two main categories; classical bearing currents and inverter-induced bearing currents. A bearing damage caused by bearing currents results, for instance, from electrical discharges that take place through the lubricant film between the raceways of the inner and the outer ring and the rolling elements of a bearing. This phenomenon can be considered similar to the one of electrical discharge machining, where material is removed by a series of rapidly recurring electrical arcing discharges between an electrode and a workpiece. This thesis concentrates on bearing currents with a special reference to bearing current detection in induction motors. A bearing current detection method based on radio frequency impulse reception and detection is studied. The thesis describes how a motor can work as a “spark gap” transmitter and discusses a discharge in a bearing as a source of radio frequency impulse. It is shown that a discharge, occurring due to bearing currents, can be detected at a distance of several meters from the motor. The issues of interference, detection, and location techniques are discussed. The applicability of the method is shown with a series of measurements with a specially constructed test motor and an unmodified frequency-converter-driven motor. The radio frequency method studied provides a nonintrusive method to detect harmful bearing currents in the drive system. If bearing current mitigation techniques are applied, their effectiveness can be immediately verified with the proposed method. The method also gives a tool to estimate the harmfulness of the bearing currents by making it possible to detect and locate individual discharges inside the bearings of electric motors.

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A software development process is a predetermined sequence of steps to create a piece of software. A software development process is used, so that an implementing organization could gain significant benefits. The benefits for software development companies, that can be attributed to software process improvement efforts, are improved predictability in the development effort and improved quality software products. The implementation, maintenance, and management of a software process as well as the software process improvement efforts are expensive. Especially the implementation phase is expensive with a best case scenario of a slow return on investment. Software processes are rare in very small software development companies because of the cost of implementation and an improbable return on investment. This study presents a new method to enable benefits that are usually related to software process improvement to small companies with a low cost. The study presents reasons for the development of the method, a description of the method, and an implementation process for the method, as well as a theoretical case study of a method implementation. The study's focus is on describing the method. The theoretical use case is used to illustrate the theory of the method and the implementation process of the method. The study ends with a few conclusions on the method and on the method's implementation process. The main conclusion is that the method requires further study as well as implementation experiments to asses the value of the method.

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The potential for enhancing the energy efficiency of industrial pumping processes is estimated to be in some cases up to 50 %. One way to define further this potential is to implement techniques in accordance to definition of best available techniques in pumping applications. These techniques are divided into three main categories: Design, control method & maintenance and distribution system. In the theory part of this thesis first the definition of best available techniques (BAT) and its applicability on pumping processes is issued. Next, the theory around pumping with different pump types is handled, the main stress being in centrifugal pumps. Other components needed in a pumping process are dealt by presenting different control methods, use of an electric motor, variable speed drive and the distribution system. Last part of the theory is about industrial pumping processes from water distribution, sewage water and power plant applications, some of which are used further on in the empirical part as example cases. For the empirical part of this study four case studies on typical pumping processes from older Master’s these were selected. Firstly the original results were analyzed by studying the distribution of energy consumption between different system components and using the definition of BAT in pumping, possible ways to improve energy efficiency were evaluated. The goal in this study was that by the achieved results it would be possible to identify the characteristic energy consumption of these and similar pumping processes. Through this data it would then be easier to focus energy efficiency actions where they might be the most applicable, both technically and economically.

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Open innovation is becoming increasingly popular in academic literature and in business life, but even if people heard about it, they might not understand what it really is, they may over-estimate it thinking that it is savior or underestimate it, concentrating on limitations and risks. Current work sheds light on most important concepts of open innovation theory. Goal of current research is to offer business processes improvement for both inbound and outbound modes in case company. It is relevant as open innovation proved to affect firms‘ performance in general case and in case company, and Nokia planned to develop open innovation implementation since 2008 but still competitors succeed in it more, therefore analysis of current situation with open innovation in Nokia and recommendations how to improve it are topical. Case study method was used to answer the question ―How open innovation processes can be improved?‖. 11 in-depth interviews with Nokia senior managers and independent consultants were used to reach the goal of the thesis, as well as secondary sources. Results of current work are as-is and to-be models (process models of today and best practices models) of several open innovation modes, and recommendation for case company, which will be presented to company representatives and checked for practical applicability.

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The purpose of this study is to develop a crowdsourced videographic research method for consumer culture research. Videography provides opportunities for expressing contextual and culturally embedded relations. Thus, developing new ways to conduct videographic research is meaningful. This study develops the crowdsourced videographic method based on a literature review and evaluation of a focal study. The literature review follows a qualitative systematic review process. Through the literature review, based on different methodological, crowdsourcing and consumer research related literature, this study defines the method, its application process and evaluation criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of the focal study, where the method was applied, completes the study. This study applies professional review with self-evaluation as a form of evaluation, drawing from secondary data including research task description, screenshots of the mobile application used in the focal study, videos collected from the participants, and self-evaluation by the author. The focal study is analyzed according to its suitability to consumer culture research, research process and quality. Definitions and descriptions of the research method, its process and quality criteria form the theoretical contribution of this study. Evaluating the focal study using these definitions underlines some best practices of this type of research, generating the practical contribution of this study. Finally, this study provides ideas for future research. First, defining the boundaries of the use of crowdsourcing in various parts of conducting research. Second, improving the method by applying it to new research contexts. Third, testing how changes in one dimension of the crowdsourcing models interact with other dimension. Fourth, comparing the quality criteria applied in this study to various other quality criteria to improve the method’s usefulness. Overall, this study represents a starting point for further development of the crowdsourced videographic research method.

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The purpose of this study was to examine and expand understanding concerning young Finnish registered nurses (RN) with an intention to leave the profession and the related variables, specifically when that intention has emerged before the age of 30. The overall goal of the study was to develop a conceptual model in relation to young RNs’ intention to leave the profession. Suggestions for policymakers, nurse leaders and nurse managers are presented for how to retain more young RNs in the nursing workforce. Suggestions for future nursing research are also provided. Phase I consists of two sequential integrative literature reviews of 75 empirical articles concerning nurses’ intention to leave the profession. In phase II, data had been collected as part of the Nurses’ Early Exit (NEXT) study, using the BQ-12 structured postal questionnaire. A total of 147 young RNs participated in the study. The data were analysed with statistical methods. In phase III, firstly, an in-depth interpretive case study was conducted in order to understand how young RNs explain and make sense of their intention to leave the profession. The data in this study consisted of longitudinal career stories by three young RNs. The data was analysed by using narrative holistic-content and thematic methods. Secondly, a total of 15 young RNs were interviewed in order to explore in-depth their experiences concerning organizational turnover and their intent to leave the profession. The data was analysed using conventional content analysis. Based on earlier research, empirical research on the young RNs intention to leave the profession is scarce. Nurses’ intention to leave the profession has mainly been studied with quantitative descriptive studies, conducted with survey questionnaires. Furthermore, the quality of previous studies varies considerably. Moreover, nurses’ intention to leave the profession seems to be driven by a number of variables. According to the survey study, 26% of young RNs had often considered giving up nursing completely and starting a different kind of job during the course of the previous year. Many different variables were associated with an intention to leave the profession (e.g. personal burnout, job dissatisfaction). According to the in-depth inquiries, poor nursing practice environments and a nursing career as a ‘second-best’ or serendipitous career choice were themes associated with young RNs’ intention to leave the profession. In summary, young RNs intention to leave the profession is a complex phenomenon with multiple associated variables. These findings suggest that policymakers, nurse leaders and nurse managers should enable improvements in nursing practice environments in order to retain more young RNs. These improvements can include, for example, adequate staffing levels, balanced nursing workloads, measures to reduce work-related stress as well as possibilities for advancement and development. Young RNs’ requirements to provide high-quality and ethical nursing care must be recognized in society and health-care organizations. Moreover, sufficient mentoring and orientation programmes should be provided for all graduate RNs. Future research is needed into whether the motive for choosing a nursing career affects the length of the tenure in the profession. Both quantitative and in-depth research is needed for the comprehensive development of nursing-turnover research.

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The theoretical research of the study focused to business process management and business process modeling, the goal was to found a new business process modeling method for electrical accessories manufacturing enterprise. The focus was to find few options for business process modeling methods where company could have chosen the best one for its needs The study was carried out as a qualitative research with an action study and a case study as the most important ways collect data. In the empirical part of the study examples of company’s processes modeled with the new modeling method and process modeling process are presented. The new way of modeling processes improves especially visual presentation of the processes and improves the understanding how employees should work in the organizational interfaces of the process and in the interfaces between different processes. The results of the study is a new unified way to model company’s processes, which makes it easier to understand and create the process models. This improved readability makes it possible to reduce the costs that were created from the unclear old process models.

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Tässä diplomityössä tutkitaan, miten verkkokaupan kävijävirran käyttäytymistä analysoimalla voidaan tehdä perusteltuja, tarkoituksenmukaisiin nimikkeisiin ja niiden parametreihin kohdistuvia päätöksiä tilanteessa, jossa laajamittaisemmat historiatiedot toteutuneesta myynnistä puuttuvat. Teoriakatsauksen perusteella muodostettiin ratkaisumalli, joka perustuu potentiaalisten kysyntäajurien muodostamiseen ja testaamiseen. Testisarjan perusteella valittavaa ajuria käytetään estimoimaan nimikkeiden kysyntää, jolloin sitä voidaan käyttää toteutuneen myynnin sijasta esimerkiksi Pareto-analyysissä. Näin huomio on mahdollista keskittää rajattuun määrään merkitykseltään suuria nimikkeitä ja niiden yksityiskohtaisiin parametreihin, joilla on merkitystä asiakkaan ostopäätöstilanteissa. Lisäksi voidaan tunnistaa nimikkeitä, joiden ongelmana on joko huono verkkonäkyvyys tai yhteensopimattomuus asiakastarpeiden kanssa. Ajurien testaamisperiaatteena käytetään kertymäfunktioiden yhdenmukaisuustarkastelua, joka rakentuu kolmesta peräkkäisestä vaiheesta; visuaalisesta tarkastelusta, kahden otoksen 2-suuntaisesta Kolmogorov-Smirnov-yhteensopivuustestistä ja Pearsonin korrelaatiotestistä. Mallia ja sen avulla tuotettua kysynnän ajuria testattiin veneilyalan kuluttaja-asiakkaille suunnatussa verkkokaupassa, jossa sillä tunnistettiin Pareto-jakauman alkupäästä runsaasti nimikkeitä, joiden parametreissa oli myynnin kannalta epäedullisia tekijöitä. Jakauman toisessa päässä tunnistettiin satoja nimikkeitä, joiden ongelmana on ilmeisesti joko huono verkkonäkyvyys tai nimikkeiden yhteensopimattomuus asiakastarpeiden kanssa.

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Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää keinoja parantaa tuottavuutta ja investointitehokkuutta kunnallisteknisissä töissä. Tutkimusmenetelmäksi valittiin konstruktiivinen tutkimusmenetelmä, jossa käytännölliseen ongelmaan luodaan teoriapohjan kautta ratkaisuehdotus. Työn teoriaosuus käsittelee palveluiden tuottavuutta ja sen mittaamista. Työn tuloksena syntyi excel-työkalu, jonka avulla on mahdollista tarkastella palveluntuottajan konekannan aiheuttamia kustannuksia ja tuottoja. Työkalu laskee konekohtaiset kustannukset ja tuotot, joiden avulla palveluntuottajalle on mahdollista osoittaa aiempien investointien kannattavuus. Työkalu laskee kustannus- ja tuottoarvion myös vaihtoehtoiselle konekannalle, jossa alhaisen käyttöasteen koneita korvataan monipuolisemmalla kalustolla. Palveluntuottajan konekannan hallinta ja kustannusrakenteen tarkka määrittely ovat tärkeässä roolissa tuottavuuden ja kannattavuuden kehittämisessä. Työkalu mahdollistaa myös eri kustannuserissä tapahtuvien muutosten vaikutusten arvioinnin, mikä auttaa palveluntuottajia toiminnan pitkäjänteisessä kehittämisessä.

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Thermal cutting methods, are commonly used in the manufacture of metal parts. Thermal cutting processes separate materials by using heat. The process can be done with or without a stream of cutting oxygen. Common processes are Oxygen, plasma and laser cutting. It depends on the application and material which cutting method is used. Numerically-controlled thermal cutting is a cost-effective way of prefabricating components. One design aim is to minimize the number of work steps in order to increase competitiveness. This has resulted in the holes and openings in plate parts manufactured today being made using thermal cutting methods. This is a problem from the fatigue life perspective because there is local detail in the as-welded state that causes a rise in stress in a local area of the plate. In a case where the static utilization of a net section is full used, the calculated linear local stresses and stress ranges are often over 2 times the material yield strength. The shakedown criteria are exceeded. Fatigue life assessment of flame-cut details is commonly based on the nominal stress method. For welded details, design standards and instructions provide more accurate and flexible methods, e.g. a hot-spot method, but these methods are not universally applied to flame cut edges. Some of the fatigue tests of flame cut edges in the laboratory indicated that fatigue life estimations based on the standard nominal stress method can give quite a conservative fatigue life estimate in cases where a high notch factor was present. This is an undesirable phenomenon and it limits the potential for minimizing structure size and total costs. A new calculation method is introduced to improve the accuracy of the theoretical fatigue life prediction method of a flame cut edge with a high stress concentration factor. Simple equations were derived by using laboratory fatigue test results, which are published in this work. The proposed method is called the modified FAT method (FATmod). The method takes into account the residual stress state, surface quality, material strength class and true stress ratio in the critical place.

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The blast furnace is the main ironmaking production unit in the world which converts iron ore with coke and hot blast into liquid iron, hot metal, which is used for steelmaking. The furnace acts as a counter-current reactor charged with layers of raw material of very different gas permeability. The arrangement of these layers, or burden distribution, is the most important factor influencing the gas flow conditions inside the furnace, which dictate the efficiency of the heat transfer and reduction processes. For proper control the furnace operators should know the overall conditions in the furnace and be able to predict how control actions affect the state of the furnace. However, due to high temperatures and pressure, hostile atmosphere and mechanical wear it is very difficult to measure internal variables. Instead, the operators have to rely extensively on measurements obtained at the boundaries of the furnace and make their decisions on the basis of heuristic rules and results from mathematical models. It is particularly difficult to understand the distribution of the burden materials because of the complex behavior of the particulate materials during charging. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to clarify some aspects of burden distribution and to develop tools that can aid the decision-making process in the control of the burden and gas distribution in the blast furnace. A relatively simple mathematical model was created for simulation of the distribution of the burden material with a bell-less top charging system. The model developed is fast and it can therefore be used by the operators to gain understanding of the formation of layers for different charging programs. The results were verified by findings from charging experiments using a small-scale charging rig at the laboratory. A basic gas flow model was developed which utilized the results of the burden distribution model to estimate the gas permeability of the upper part of the blast furnace. This combined formulation for gas and burden distribution made it possible to implement a search for the best combination of charging parameters to achieve a target gas temperature distribution. As this mathematical task is discontinuous and non-differentiable, a genetic algorithm was applied to solve the optimization problem. It was demonstrated that the method was able to evolve optimal charging programs that fulfilled the target conditions. Even though the burden distribution model provides information about the layer structure, it neglects some effects which influence the results, such as mixed layer formation and coke collapse. A more accurate numerical method for studying particle mechanics, the Discrete Element Method (DEM), was used to study some aspects of the charging process more closely. Model charging programs were simulated using DEM and compared with the results from small-scale experiments. The mixed layer was defined and the voidage of mixed layers was estimated. The mixed layer was found to have about 12% less voidage than layers of the individual burden components. Finally, a model for predicting the extent of coke collapse when heavier pellets are charged over a layer of lighter coke particles was formulated based on slope stability theory, and was used to update the coke layer distribution after charging in the mathematical model. In designing this revision, results from DEM simulations and charging experiments for some charging programs were used. The findings from the coke collapse analysis can be used to design charging programs with more stable coke layers.