22 resultados para Risk and loss functions


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Alzheimer`s disease (AD) is characterised neuropathologically by the presence of extracellular amyloid plaques, intraneuronal neurofibrillary tangles, and cerebral neuronal loss. The pathological changes in AD are believed to start even decades before clinical symptoms are detectable. AD gradually affects episodic memory, cognition, behaviour and the ability to perform everyday activities. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) represents a transitional state between normal aging and dementia disorders, especially AD. The predictive accuracy of the current and commonly used MCI criteria devide this disorder into amnestic (aMCI) and non-amnestic (naMCI) MCI. It seems that many individuals with aMCI tend to convert to AD. However many MCI individuals will remain stable and some may even recover. At present, the principal drugs for the treatment of AD provide only symptomatic and palliative benefits. Safe and effective mechanism-based therapies are needed for this devastating neurodegenerative disease of later life. In conjunction with the development of new therapeutic drugs, tools for early detection of AD would be important. In future one of the challenges will be to detect at an early stage these MCI individuals who will convert to AD. Methods which can predict which MCI subjects will convert to AD will be much more important if the new drug candidates prove to have disease-arresting or even disease–slowing effects. These types of drugs are likely to have the best efficacy if administered in the early or even in the presymptomatic phase of the disease when the synaptic and neuronal loss has not become too widespread. There is no clinical method to determine with certainly which MCI individuals will progress to AD. However there are several methods which have been suggested as predictors of conversion to AD, e.g. increased [11C] PIB uptake, hippocampal atrophy in MRI, low CSF A beta 42 level, high CSF tau-protein level, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele and impairment in episodic memory and executive functions. In the present study subjects with MCI appear to have significantly higher [11C] PIB uptake vs healthy elderly in several brain areas including frontal cortex, the posterior cingulate, the parietal and lateral temporal cortices, putamen and caudate. Also results from this PET study indicate that over time, MCI subjects who display increased [11C] PIB uptake appear to be significantly more likely to convert to AD than MCI subjects with negative [11C] PIB retention. Also hippocampal atrophy seems to increase in MCI individuals clearly during the conversion to AD. In this study [11C] PIB uptake increases early and changes relatively little during the AD process whereas there is progressive hippocampal atrophy during the disease. In addition to increased [11C] PIB retention and hippocampal atrophy, the status of APOE ε4 allele might contribute to the conversion from MCI to AD.

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The role of genetic factors in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is not completely understood. In order to improve this understanding, the cerebral glucose metabolism of seven monozygotic and nine dizygotic twin pairs discordant for AD was compared to that of 13 unrelated controls using positron emission tomography (PET). Traditional region of interest analysis revealed no differences between the non-demented dizygotic co-twins and controls. In contrast, in voxel-level and automated region of interest analyses, the non-demented monozygotic co-twins displayed a lower metabolic rate in temporal and parietal cortices as well as in subcortical grey matter structures when compared to controls. Again, no reductions were seen in the non-demented dizygotic co-twins. The reductions seen in the non-demented monozygotic co-twins may indicate a higher genetically mediated risk of AD or genetically mediated hypometabolism possibly rendering them more vulnerable to AD pathogenesis. With no disease modifying treatment available for AD, prevention of dementia is of the utmost importance. A total of 2 165 at least 65 years old twins of the Finnish Twin Cohort with questionnaire data from 1981 participated in a validated telephone interview assessing cognitive function between 1999 and 2007. Those subjects reporting heavy alcohol drinking in 1981 had an elevated cognitive impairment risk over 20 years later compared to light drinkers. In addition, binge drinking was associated with an increased risk even when total alcohol consumption was controlled for, suggesting that binge drinking is an independent risk factor for cognitive impairment. When compared to light drinkers, also non-drinkers had an increased risk of cognitive impairment. Midlife hypertension, obesity and low leisure time physical activity but not hypercholesterolemia were significant risk factors for cognitive impairment. The accumulation of risk factors increased cognitive impairment risk in an additive manner. A previously postulated dementia risk score based on midlife demographic and cardiovascular factors was validated. The risk score was found to well predict cognitive impairment risk, and cognitive impairment risk increased significantly as the score became higher. However, the risk score is not accurate enough for use in the clinic without further testing.

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Although securities lending is an important function of the financial markets, it has not received that much academic attention. This study examines the evolution of European securities lending and risk management with an emphasis on the development of collateral management, the function responsible for reducing credit risk. The effects of the recent financial instabilities are also considered. The evolution of the Finnish securities lending market is examined in more detail through a case-study. This study can be classified as a constructive qualitative case study. The initial practical knowledge comes from the author's own experience and additional insight and theoretical background is acquired through a literature review. The case study is based on research, semi-structured interviews and a brief analysis of numerical data. The main observation of this study was that securities lending is now recognized as more of an investment management discipline than an operational support function. The recent financial instabilities have resulted in an increased focus on risk and transparency. In securities lending this is directly reflected in collateral management guidelines and procedures. Collateral management has become increasingly technologically developed and automated. Collateral optimization initiatives have been started to make the process more efficient, liquid, and cost effective. Although securities lending is generally an OTC-market with no standard market place, centralized exchange-like models have been introduced. Finnish securities lending has now shifted towards the more common global OTC model. Although the Finnish securities lending industry has developed, and the main laws governing it (tax legislation) have changed, there is still need for development. There are still not many Finnish participants involved and due to legal issues most securities loans are collateralized with cash and not securities (e.g. government bonds).

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Pluripotent cells have the potential to differentiate into all somatic cell types. As the adult human body is unable to regenerate various tissues, pluripotent cells provide an attractive source for regenerative medicine. Human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) can be isolated from blastocyst stage embryos and cultured in the laboratory environment. However, their use in regenerative medicine is restricted due to problems with immunosuppression by the host and ethical legislation. Recently, a new source of pluripotent cells was established via the direct reprogramming of somatic cells. These human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) enable the production of patient specific cell types. However, numerous challenges, such as efficient reprogramming, optimal culture, directed differentiation, genetic stability and tumor risk need to be solved before the launch of therapeutic applications. The main objective of this thesis was to understand the unique properties of human pluripotent stem cells. The specific aims were to identify novel factors involved in maintaining pluripotency, characterize the effects of low oxygen culture on hESCs, and determine the high resolution changes in hESCs and hiPSCs during culture and reprogramming. As a result, the previously uncharacterized protein L1TD1 was determined to be specific for pluripotent cells and essential for the maintenance of pluripotency. The low oxygen culture supported undifferentiated growth and affected expression of stem cell associated transcripts. High resolution screening of hESCs identified a number of culture induced copy number variations and loss of heterozygosity changes. Further, screening of hiPSCs revealed that reprogramming induces high resolution alterations. The results obtained in this thesis have important implications for stem cell and cancer biology and the therapeutic potential of pluripotent cells.

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A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

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Financial industry has recently encountered many changes in the business environment. Increased regulation together with growing competition is forcing commercial banks to rethink their business models. In order to maintain profitability in the new environment, banks are focusing more into activities that yield noninterest income. This is a shift away from the traditional intermediation function of banks. This study aims to answer the question if the shift from traditional income yielding activities to more innovative noninterest activities is logical in terms of profitability and risk in Nordics. This study also aims to answer the question if diversification within the noninterest income categories has impact on profitability and risk and if there are certain categories of noninterest income that are better than others in terms of profitability and risk in Nordics. Results show that diversification between interest and noninterest activities and increase in the share of noninterest income have a negative impact on the risk adjusted returns and risk profile. Results also show that further diversification within the noninterest income categories has negative impact on risk adjusted profitability and risk while an increase of the share of commission and fee income category of total noninterest income has a positive impact on risk adjusted profitability and risk. Results are logical and in line with previous research (De Young & Roland, 2001; Stiroh, 2004). Results provide useful information to banks and help them better evaluate outcomes of different income diversification strategies.

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In the last few decades, banking has strongly internationalized and become more complex. Hence, bank supervision and regulation has taken global perspective, too. The most important international regulation are the Basel frameworks by the Basel committee on banking supervision. This study examines the effects of bank supervision and regulation, especially the Basel II, on bank risk and risk-taking. In order to separate and recognize the efficiency of these effects, the co-effects of many supervisory and regulatory tools together with other relevant factors must be taken into account. The focus of the study is on the effects of asymmetric information and banking procyclicality on the efficiency of the Basel II. This study tries to find an answer, if the Basel II, implemented in 2008, has decreased bank risk in banks of European Union member states. This study examines empirically, if the volatility on bank stock returns have changed after the implementation of the Basel II. Panel data consists of 62 bank stock returns, bank-specific variables, economic variables and variables concerning regulatory environment between 2003 and 2011. Fixed effects regression is used for panel data analysis. Results indicate that volatility on bank stock returns has increased after 2008 and the implementation of the Basel II. Result is statistically very significant and robustness has been verified in different model specifications. The result of this study contradicts with the goal of the Basel II about banking system stability. Banking procyclicality and wrong incentives for regulatory arbitrage under asymmetric information explained in theoretical part may explain this result. On the other hand, simultaneously with the implementation of the Basel II, the global financial crisis emerged and caused severe losses in banks and increased stock volatility. However, it is clear that supervision and regulation was unable to prevent the global financial crisis. After the financial crisis, supervision and regulation have been reformed globally. The main problems of the Basel II, examined in the theoretical part, have been recognized in order to prevent problems of procyclicality and wrong incentives in the future.