Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

High-speed solid-rotor induction machine – calculation program

The aim of this thesis is to utilize the technology developed at LUT and to provide an easy tool for high-speed solid-rotor induction machine preliminary design. Computer aided design tool MathCAD has been chosen as the environment for realizing the calculation program. Four versions of the design program have been made depending on the motor rotor type. The first rotor type is an axially slitted solid-rotor with steel end rings. The next one is an axially slitted solid-rotor with copper end rings. The third machine type is a solid rotor with deep, rectangular copper bars and end rings (squirrel cage). And the last one is a solid-rotor with round copper bars and end rings (squirrel cage). Each type of rotor has its own specialties but a general thread of design is common. This paper follows the structure of the calculating program and explains some features and formulas. The attention is concentrated on the difference between laminated and solid-rotor machine design principles. There is no deep analysis of the calculation ways are presented. References for all solution methods appearing during the design procedure are given for more detailed studying. This thesis pays respect to the latest innovations in solid-rotor machines theory. Rotor ends’ analytical calculation follows the latest knowledge in this field. Correction factor for adjusting the rotor impedance is implemented. The purpose of the created design program is to calculate the preliminary dimensions of the machine according to initial data. Obtained results are not recommended for exact machine development. Further more detailed design should be done in a finite element method application. Hence, this thesis is a practical tool for the prior evaluating of the high-speed machine with different solid-rotor types parameters.

The Sedimentology, Ichnology and Hydrogeochemistry of the Late Miocene, Marginal Marine, Upper Pebas and Nauta Formations, Amazonian Foreland Basin, Peru

This thesis includes detailed sedimentological and ichnological studies on two geological units: the Pebas Formation, with a special focus in its informal upper member, and the Nauta Formation. Both formations were deposited during the Miocene in Northeastern Peruvian Amazonia, in the Amazon retroarc foreland basin. The Pebas and Nauta successions mainly consist of non-consolidated, clastic sedimentary deposits arranged into sand- to mud-dominated heterolithic successions, which can be upward-coarsening to upward-fining. Sediments in both the Pebas and Nauta successions range from mud to fine- to medium-grained sand. The main facies observed were 1) mud-dominated horizontal heterolithic couplets; 2) rooted brownish mud; 3) lenticular, mud-draped, cross-stratified sand; 4) mud- to sand-dominated, inclined heterolithic stratification; 5) sand-dominated horizontal heterolithic couplets; and 6) mud-draped, trough cross-stratified sand. Locally, tidal rhythmites were documented. The facies are interpreted as: 1) muddy, shallow, subaqueous flats/shoals; 2) palaeosols; 3) secondary tidal channels or run-off creeks; 4) tidally influenced point bars; 5) shoreface deposits; and 6) subtidal compound dunes. Thalassinoides-dominated Glossifungites ichnofacies, low-diversity expressions of the Skolithos ichnofacies and depauperate suites consisting of elements common to the Cruziana ichnofacies strongly indicate brackish-water conditions. However, continental trace fossil assemblages, with possible elements common to the Scoyenia ichnofacies, have also been identified. In addition to the palaeoenvironmental study, a local hydrogeochemical characterisation of the Pebas and Nauta formations was also conducted. The geochemistry of the groundwaters reflects the characteristics and the soil geochemistry of the geological formations studied. The Pebas formation has low hardness, acid to neutral waters, whereas the upper Pebas has high hardness, acid to neutral waters. In both units, the arsenic content is locally high. The Nauta formation has low hardness acid groundwaters. A regional review of the Pebas and Nauta formations placed the local observations into a continental perspective and suggests that the whole Pebas-Nauta system was a probably shallow (some tens of metres at maximum), brackish- to freshwater, tidally-influenced epicontinental embayment with a probable semi-diurnal to mixed tidal regime and a microtidal range, surrounded by continental environments such as forest floors, lagoons, rivers and their flood plains, and lakes.

Skill Development in Music Reading. The Eye-Movement Approach

This dissertation examined skill development in music reading by focusing on the visual processing of music notation in different music-reading tasks. Each of the three experiments of this dissertation addressed one of the three types of music reading: (i) sight-reading, i.e. reading and performing completely unknown music, (ii) rehearsed reading, during which the performer is already familiar with the music being played, and (iii) silent reading with no performance requirements. The use of the eye-tracking methodology allowed the recording of the readers’ eye movements from the time of music reading with extreme precision. Due to the lack of coherence in the smallish amount of prior studies on eye movements in music reading, the dissertation also had a heavy methodological emphasis. The present dissertation thus aimed to promote two major issues: (1) it investigated the eye-movement indicators of skill and skill development in sight-reading, rehearsed reading and silent reading, and (2) developed and tested suitable methods that can be used by future studies on the topic. Experiment I focused on the eye-movement behaviour of adults during their first steps of learning to read music notation. The longitudinal experiment spanned a nine-month long music-training period, during which 49 participants (university students taking part in a compulsory music course) sight-read and performed a series of simple melodies in three measurement sessions. Participants with no musical background were entitled as “novices”, whereas “amateurs” had had musical training prior to the experiment. The main issue of interest was the changes in the novices’ eye movements and performances across the measurements while the amateurs offered a point of reference for the assessment of the novices’ development. The experiment showed that the novices tended to sight-read in a more stepwise fashion than the amateurs, the latter group manifesting more back-and-forth eye movements. The novices’ skill development was reflected by the faster identification of note symbols involved in larger melodic intervals. Across the measurements, the novices also began to show sensitivity to the melodies’ metrical structure, which the amateurs demonstrated from the very beginning. The stimulus melodies consisted of quarter notes, making the effects of meter and larger melodic intervals distinguishable from effects caused by, say, different rhythmic patterns. Experiment II explored the eye movements of 40 experienced musicians (music education students and music performance students) during temporally controlled rehearsed reading. This cross-sectional experiment focused on the eye-movement effects of one-bar-long melodic alterations placed within a familiar melody. The synchronizing of the performance and eye-movement recordings enabled the investigation of the eye-hand span, i.e., the temporal gap between a performed note and the point of gaze. The eye-hand span was typically found to remain around one second. Music performance students demonstrated increased professing efficiency by their shorter average fixation durations as well as in the two examined eye-hand span measures: these participants used larger eye-hand spans more frequently and inspected more of the musical score during the performance of one metrical beat than students of music education. Although all participants produced performances almost indistinguishable in terms of their auditory characteristics, the altered bars indeed affected the reading of the score: the general effects of expertise in terms of the two eye- hand span measures, demonstrated by the music performance students, disappeared in the face of the melodic alterations. Experiment III was a longitudinal experiment designed to examine the differences between adult novice and amateur musicians’ silent reading of music notation, as well as the changes the 49 participants manifested during a nine-month long music course. From a methodological perspective, an opening to research on eye movements in music reading was the inclusion of a verbal protocol in the research design: after viewing the musical image, the readers were asked to describe what they had seen. A two-way categorization for verbal descriptions was developed in order to assess the quality of extracted musical information. More extensive musical background was related to shorter average fixation duration, more linear scanning of the musical image, and more sophisticated verbal descriptions of the music in question. No apparent effects of skill development were observed for the novice music readers alone, but all participants improved their verbal descriptions towards the last measurement. Apart from the background-related differences between groups of participants, combining verbal and eye-movement data in a cluster analysis identified three styles of silent reading. The finding demonstrated individual differences in how the freely defined silent-reading task was approached. This dissertation is among the first presentations of a series of experiments systematically addressing the visual processing of music notation in various types of music-reading tasks and focusing especially on the eye-movement indicators of developing music-reading skill. Overall, the experiments demonstrate that the music-reading processes are affected not only by “top-down” factors, such as musical background, but also by the “bottom-up” effects of specific features of music notation, such as pitch heights, metrical division, rhythmic patterns and unexpected melodic events. From a methodological perspective, the experiments emphasize the importance of systematic stimulus design, temporal control during performance tasks, and the development of complementary methods, for easing the interpretation of the eye-movement data. To conclude, this dissertation suggests that advances in comprehending the cognitive aspects of music reading, the nature of expertise in this musical task, and the development of educational tools can be attained through the systematic application of the eye-tracking methodology also in this specific domain.

Stock Market reaction to the CSR announcements of American fast food companies

The purpose of this study is to examine whether Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) announcements of the three biggest American fast food companies (McDonald’s, YUM! Brands and Wendy’s) have any effect on their stock returns as well as on the returns of the industry index (Dow Jones Restaurants and Bars). The time period under consideration starts on 1st of May 2001 and ends on 17th of October 2013. The stock market reaction is tested with an event study utilizing CAPM. The research employs the daily stock returns of the companies, the index and the benchmarks (NASDAQ and NYSE). The test of combined announcements did not reveal any significant effect on the index and McDonald’s. However the stock returns of Wendy’s and YUM! Brands reacted negatively. Moreover, the company level analyses showed that to their own CSR releases McDonald’s stock returns respond positively, YUM! Brands reacts negatively and Wendy’s does not have any reaction. Plus, it was found that the competitors of the announcing company tend to react negatively to all the events. Furthermore, the division of the events into sustainability categories showed statistically significant negative reaction from the Index, McDonald’s and YUM! Brands towards social announcements. At the same time only the index was positively affected by to the economic and environmental CSR news releases.

Liquid cooling solutions for rotating permanent magnet synchronous machines

In the design of electrical machines, efficiency improvements have become very important. However, there are at least two significant cases in which the compactness of electrical machines is critical and the tolerance of extremely high losses is valued: vehicle traction, where very high torque density is desired at least temporarily; and direct-drive wind turbine generators, whose mass should be acceptably low. As ever higher torque density and ever more compact electrical machines are developed for these purposes, thermal issues, i.e. avoidance of over-temperatures and damage in conditions of high heat losses, are becoming of utmost importance. The excessive temperatures of critical machine components, such as insulation and permanent magnets, easily cause failures of the whole electrical equipment. In electrical machines with excitation systems based on permanent magnets, special attention must be paid to the rotor temperature because of the temperature-sensitive properties of permanent magnets. The allowable temperature of NdFeB magnets is usually significantly less than 150 ˚C. The practical problem is that the part of the machine where the permanent magnets are located should stay cooler than the copper windings, which can easily tolerate temperatures of 155 ˚C or 180 ˚C. Therefore, new cooling solutions should be developed in order to cool permanent magnet electrical machines with high torque density and because of it with high concentrated losses in stators. In this doctoral dissertation, direct and indirect liquid cooling techniques for permanent magnet synchronous electrical machines (PMSM) with high torque density are presented and discussed. The aim of this research is to analyse thermal behaviours of the machines using the most applicable and accurate thermal analysis methods and to propose new, practical machine designs based on these analyses. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) thermal simulations of the heat transfer inside the machines and lumped parameter thermal network (LPTN) simulations both presented herein are used for the analyses. Detailed descriptions of the simulated thermal models are also presented. Most of the theoretical considerations and simulations have been verified via experimental measurements on a copper tooth-coil (motorette) and on various prototypes of electrical machines. The indirect liquid cooling systems of a 100 kW axial flux (AF) PMSM and a 110 kW radial flux (RF) PMSM are analysed here by means of simplified 3D CFD conjugate thermal models of the parts of both machines. In terms of results, a significant temperature drop of 40 ̊C in the stator winding and 28 ̊C in the rotor of the AF PMSM was achieved with the addition of highly thermally conductive materials into the machine: copper bars inserted in the teeth, and potting material around the end windings. In the RF PMSM, the potting material resulted in a temperature decrease of 6 ̊C in the stator winding, and in a decrease of 10 ̊C in the rotor embedded-permanentmagnets. Two types of unique direct liquid cooling systems for low power machines are analysed herein to demonstrate the effectiveness of the cooling systems in conditions of highly concentrated heat losses. LPTN analysis and CFD thermal analysis (the latter being particularly useful for unique design) were applied to simulate the temperature distribution within the machine models. Oil-immersion cooling provided good cooling capability for a 26.6 kW PMSM of a hybrid vehicle. A direct liquid cooling system for the copper winding with inner stainless steel tubes was designed for an 8 MW directdrive PM synchronous generator. The design principles of this cooling solution are described in detail in this thesis. The thermal analyses demonstrate that the stator winding and the rotor magnet temperatures are kept significantly below their critical temperatures with demineralized water flow. A comparison study of the coolant agents indicates that propylene glycol is more effective than ethylene glycol in arctic conditions.

Fluvio-morphological processes of meander bends - Combining conventional field measurements, close-range remote sensing and computational modelling

Meandering rivers have been perceived to evolve rather similarly around the world independently of the location or size of the river. Despite the many consistent processes and characteristics they have also been noted to show complex and unique sets of fluviomorphological processes in which local factors play important role. These complex interactions of flow and morphology affect notably the development of the river. Comprehensive and fundamental field, flume and theoretically based studies of fluviomorphological processes in meandering rivers have been carried out especially during the latter part of the 20th century. However, as these studies have been carried out with traditional field measurements techniques their spatial and temporal resolution is not competitive to the level achievable today. The hypothesis of this study is that, by exploiting e increased spatial and temporal resolution of the data, achieved by combining conventional field measurements with a range of modern technologies, will provide new insights to the spatial patterns of the flow-sediment interaction in meandering streams, which have perceived to show notable variation in space and time. This thesis shows how the modern technologies can be combined to derive very high spatial and temporal resolution data on fluvio-morphological processes over meander bends. The flow structure over the bends is recorded in situ using acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and the spatial and temporal resolution of the flow data is enhanced using 2D and 3D CFD over various meander bends. The CFD are also exploited to simulate sediment transport. Multi-temporal terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), mobile laser scanning (MLS) and echo sounding data are used to measure the flow-based changes and formations over meander bends and to build the computational models. The spatial patterns of erosion and deposition over meander bends are analysed relative to the measured and modelled flow field and sediment transport. The results are compared with the classic theories of the processes in meander bends. Mainly, the results of this study follow well the existing theories and results of previous studies. However, some new insights regarding to the spatial and temporal patterns of the flow-sediment interaction in a natural sand-bed meander bend are provided. The results of this study show the advantages of the rapid and detailed measurements techniques and the achieved spatial and temporal resolution provided by CFD, unachievable with field measurements. The thesis also discusses the limitations which remain in the measurement and modelling methods and in understanding of fluvial geomorphology of meander bends. Further, the hydro- and morphodynamic models’ sensitivity to user-defined parameters is tested, and the modelling results are assessed against detailed field measurement. The study is implemented in the meandering sub-Arctic Pulmanki River in Finland. The river is unregulated and sand-bed and major morphological changes occur annually on the meander point bars, which are inundated only during the snow-melt-induced spring floods. The outcome of this study applies to sandbed meandering rivers in regions where normally one significant flood event occurs annually, such as Arctic areas with snow-melt induced spring floods, and where the point bars of the meander bends are inundated only during the flood events.

Harvesterin sahalaipan jatkotutkimus ja tuotteistaminen

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli saavuttaa Joensuun CNC-Machining Oy:n aloittama harvesterinlaipan kehitystyö loppuun. Kehitystyön oli aloittanut vuonna 2012 Teemu Tuominen omalla opinnäytetyöllään, joka keskittyi suunnittelua ja valmistusta rajoittavien patenttien selvittämiseen sekä laipan valmistuksessa käytettyjen materiaalien selvittämiseen. Kirjallisuuskatsauksen ja puutuvien tietojen hankinnan jälkeen tarkasteluun otettiin aiemmin valmistettu prototyyppi sekä rikkoutuneita käytetyjä laippoja. Näistä laipoista tehtiin havaintoja esille nousevista ongelmakohdista, joiden perusteella tässä työssä suunnitelmaa päivitettiin ja asetettiin vaatimukset uudelle prototyypille. Kokonaisrakenteen suunnittelun jälkeen keskityttiin viimeistelemään osatoiminnallisuuksien yksityiskohdat. Suunnittelun tulosten perusteella valmistettiin laipasta prototyyppisarja, joista kahdella suoritettiin todellista käyttöä vastaava koeajo. Koeajon aikana ja jälkeen laippojen käyttäytymisestä ja suorituskyvystä tehtiin havaintoja. Valmistuksesta ja koeajosta saaduilla tiedoilla laippamallia kehitetään kohti markkinakelpoista tuotetta ja tuoteperhettä kasvatetaan eri mallisilla laipoilla.

Reconstruction of cranial bone defects with fiber-reinforced composite–bioactive glass implants

A cranial bone defect may result after an operative treatment of trauma, infection, vascular insult, or tumor. New biomaterials for cranial bone defect reconstructions are needed for example to mimic the biomechanical properties and structure of cranial bone. A novel glass fiber-reinforced composite implant with bioactive glass particulates (FRC–BG, fiber-reinforced composite–bioactive glass) has osteointegrative potential in a preclinical setting. The aim of the first and second study was to investigate the functionality of a FRC–BG implant in the reconstruction of cranial bone defects. During the years 2007–2014, a prospective clinical trial was conducted in two tertiary level academic institutions (Turku University Hospital and Oulu University Hospital) to evaluate the treatment outcome in 35 patients that underwent a FRC–BG cranioplasty. The treatment outcome was good both in adult and pediatric patients. A number of conventional complications related to cranioplasty were observed. In the third study, a retrospective outcome evaluation of 100 cranioplasty procedures performed in Turku University Hospital between years 2002–2012 was conducted. The experimental fourth study was conducted to test the load-bearing capacity and fracture behavior of FRC–BG implants under static loading. The interconnective bars in the implant structure markedly increased the load-bearing capacity of the implant. A loading test did not demonstrate any protrusions of glass fibers or fiber cut. The fracture type was buckling and delamination. In this study, a postoperative complication requiring a reoperation or removal of the cranioplasty material was observed in one out of five cranioplasty patients. The treatment outcomes of cranioplasty performed with different synthetic materials did not show significant difference when compared with autograft. The FRC–BG implant was demonstrated to be safe and biocompatible biomaterial for large cranial bone defect reconstructions in adult and pediatric patients.

Heat-transfer improvements in an axial-flux permanent-magnet synchronous machine

Axial-flux machines tend to have cooling difficulties since it is difficult to arrange continuous heat path between the stator stack and the frame. One important reason for this is that no shrink fitting of the stator is possible in an axial-flux machine. Using of liquid-cooled end shields does not alone solve this issue. Cooling of the rotor and the end windings may also be difficult at least in case of two-stator-single-rotor construction where air circulation in the rotor and in the end-winding areas may be difficult to arrange. If the rotor has significant losses air circulation via the rotor and behind the stator yokes should be arranged which, again, weakens the stator cooling. In this paper we study a novel way of using copper bars as extra heat transfer paths between the stator teeth and liquid cooling pools in the end shields. After this the end windings still suffer of low thermal conductivity and means for improving this by high-heat-conductance material was also studied. The design principle of each cooling system is presented in details. Thermal models based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are used to analyse the temperature distribution in the machine. Measurement results are provided from different versions of the machine. The results show that significant improvements in the cooling can be gained by these steps.

Sellumassan varastosäiliön rakenneanalyysi

Tämä työ käsittelee valkaistun ja valkaisemattoman sellumassan varastosäiliön tärinää ja värähtelyä. Värähtelyn seurauksena säiliön seinämän jäykisterenkaan hitsausliitokseen on syntynyt särö. Työn tavoitteena on selvittää, mikä johtaa särön syntyyn ja miten kestäväm-piä varastosäiliöitä voidaan rakentaa materiaali-, valmistus- tai rakennemuutoksien avulla. Työ alkoi tutkimalla rakennemateriaalina olevan duplex-teräksen mikrorakenteen ominai-suuksia, sekä sen hitsattavuutta ja seostamista kirjallisuustutkimuksena. Kirjallisuustutki-musta jatkettiin selvittämällä mahdollisia vaurion syntymekanismeja seinämän särölle. Työssä analysoitiin myös tehtaalla mitattuja värähtelyarvoja. Lopuksi laskettiin FE-analyysillä tyhjän varastosäiliön ominaismuodot ja -taajuudet moodianalyysillä, sekä selvi-tettiin harmonisella analyysillä pinnankorkeuden vaihtelun vaikutus siirtymävasteeseen ja kriittisiin värähtelytaajuuksiin. Varastosäiliöön kohdistuvaa värähtelyä ei ole mahdollista poistaa kokonaan, mutta väräh-telyn aiheuttamia seurauksia kyetään rajaamaan useilla keinoilla. Toimenpiteinä voivat olla ainakin seinämän materiaalin paksuuden lisääminen, jäykisteripojen lisääminen ja kriittisten sellun pinnankorkeuksien välttäminen. Kriittiseksi pinnankorkeudeksi havaittiin 40–45 %:n täyttöaste ja turvalliseksi korkeudeksi 35–38 %:n täyttöaste. Varastosäiliölle kriittisen ominaistaajuuden katsotaan syntyvän taajuuksilla 3,3–3,8 Hz ja 5,8–6,4 Hz. Sellumassa putoaa varastosäiliöön noin 2 Hz taajuudella.