Target audience analysis in cyber domain

This thesis aims to find an effective way of conducting a target audience analysis (TAA) in cyber domain. There are two main focal points that are addressed; the nature of the cyber domain and the method of the TAA. Of the cyber domain the object is to find the opportunities, restrictions and caveats that result from its digital and temporal nature. This is the environment in which the TAA method is examined in this study. As the TAA is an important step of any psychological operation and critical to its success, the method used must cover all the main aspects affecting the choice of a proper target audience. The first part of the research was done by sending an open-ended questionnaire to operators in the field of information warfare both in Finland and abroad. As the results were inconclusive, the research was completed by assessing the applicability of United States Army Joint Publication FM 3-05.301 in the cyber domain via a theory-based content analysis. FM 3- 05.301 was chosen because it presents a complete method of the TAA process. The findings were tested against the results of the questionnaire and new scientific research in the field of psychology. The cyber domain was found to be “fast and vast”, volatile and uncontrollable. Although governed by laws to some extent, the cyber domain is unpredictable by nature and not controllable to reasonable amount. The anonymity and lack of verification often present in the digital channels mean that anyone can have an opinion, and any message sent may change or even be counterproductive to the original purpose. The TAA method of the FM 3-05.301 is applicable in the cyber domain, although some parts of the method are outdated and thus suggested to be updated if used in that environment. The target audience categories of step two of the process were replaced by new groups that exist in the digital environment. The accessibility assessment (step eight) was also redefined, as in the digital media the mere existence of a written text is typically not enough to convey the intended message to the target audience. The scientific studies made in computer sciences and both in psychology and sociology about the behavior of people in social media (and overall in cyber domain) call for a more extensive remake of the TAA process. This falls, however, out of the scope of this work. It is thus suggested that further research should be carried out in search of computer-assisted methods and a more thorough TAA process, utilizing the latest discoveries of human behavior. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tämän opinnäytetyön tavoitteena on löytää tehokas tapa kohdeyleisöanalyysin tekemiseksi kybertoimintaympäristössä. Työssä keskitytään kahteen ilmiöön: kybertoimintaympäristön luonteeseen ja kohdeyleisöanalyysin metodiin. Kybertoimintaympäristön osalta tavoitteena on löytää sen digitaalisesta ja ajallisesta luonteesta juontuvat mahdollisuudet, rajoitteet ja sudenkuopat. Tämä on se ympäristö jossa kohdeyleisöanalyysiä tarkastellaan tässä työssä. Koska kohdeyleisöanalyysi kuuluu olennaisena osana jokaiseen psykologiseen operaatioon ja on onnistumisen kannalta kriittinen tekijä, käytettävän metodin tulee pitää sisällään kaikki oikean kohdeyleisön valinnan kannalta merkittävät osa-alueet. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa lähetettiin avoin kysely informaatiosodankäynnin ammattilaisille Suomessa ja ulkomailla. Koska kyselyn tulokset eivät olleet riittäviä johtopäätösten tekemiseksi, tutkimusta jatkettiin tarkastelemalla Yhdysvaltojen armeijan kenttäohjesäännön FM 3-05.301 soveltuvuutta kybertoimintaympäristössä käytettäväksi teorialähtöisen sisällönanalyysin avulla. FM 3-05.301 valittiin koska se sisältää kokonaisvaltaisen kohdeyleisöanalyysiprosessin. Havaintoja verrattiin kyselytutkimuksen tuloksiin ja psykologian uusiin tutkimuksiin. Kybertoimintaympäristö on tulosten perusteella nopea ja valtava, jatkuvasti muuttuva ja kontrolloimaton. Vaikkakin lait hallitsevat kybertoimintaympäristöä jossakin määrin, on se silti luonteeltaan ennakoimaton eikä sitä voida luotettavasti hallita. Digitaalisilla kanavilla usein läsnäoleva nimettömyys ja tiedon tarkastamisen mahdottomuus tarkoittavat että kenellä tahansa voi olla mielipide asioista, ja mikä tahansa viesti voi muuttua, jopa alkuperäiseen tarkoitukseen nähden vastakkaiseksi. FM 3-05.301:n metodi toimii kybertoimintaympäristössä, vaikkakin jotkin osa-alueet ovat vanhentuneita ja siksi ne esitetään päivitettäväksi mikäli metodia käytetään kyseisessä ympäristössä. Kohdan kaksi kohdeyleisökategoriat korvattiin uusilla, digitaalisessa ympäristössä esiintyvillä ryhmillä. Lähestyttävyyden arviointi (kohta 8) muotoiltiin myös uudestaan, koska digitaalisessa mediassa pelkkä tekstin läsnäolo ei sellaisenaan tyypillisesti vielä riitä halutun viestin välittämiseen kohdeyleisölle. Tietotekniikan edistyminen ja psykologian sekä sosiologian aloilla tehty tieteellinen tutkimus ihmisten käyttäytymisestä sosiaalisessa mediassa (ja yleensä kybertoimintaympäristössä) mahdollistavat koko kohdeyleisöanalyysiprosessin uudelleenrakentamisen. Tässä työssä sitä kuitenkaan ei voida tehdä. Siksi esitetäänkin että lisätutkimusta tulisi tehdä sekä tietokoneavusteisten prosessien että vielä syvällisempien kohdeyleisöanalyysien osalta, käyttäen hyväksi viimeisimpiä ihmisen käyttäytymiseen liittyviä tutkimustuloksia.

Large-eddy simulation of wind flows over complex terrains for wind energy applications

Wind energy has obtained outstanding expectations due to risks of global warming and nuclear energy production plant accidents. Nowadays, wind farms are often constructed in areas of complex terrain. A potential wind farm location must have the site thoroughly surveyed and the wind climatology analyzed before installing any hardware. Therefore, modeling of Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flows over complex terrains containing, e.g. hills, forest, and lakes is of great interest in wind energy applications, as it can help in locating and optimizing the wind farms. Numerical modeling of wind flows using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become a popular technique during the last few decades. Due to the inherent flow variability and large-scale unsteadiness typical in ABL flows in general and especially over complex terrains, the flow can be difficult to be predicted accurately enough by using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). Large- Eddy Simulation (LES) resolves the largest and thus most important turbulent eddies and models only the small-scale motions which are more universal than the large eddies and thus easier to model. Therefore, LES is expected to be more suitable for this kind of simulations although it is computationally more expensive than the RANS approach. With the fast development of computers and open-source CFD software during the recent years, the application of LES toward atmospheric flow is becoming increasingly common nowadays. The aim of the work is to simulate atmospheric flows over realistic and complex terrains by means of LES. Evaluation of potential in-land wind park locations will be the main application for these simulations. Development of the LES methodology to simulate the atmospheric flows over realistic terrains is reported in the thesis. The work also aims at validating the LES methodology at a real scale. In the thesis, LES are carried out for flow problems ranging from basic channel flows to real atmospheric flows over one of the most recent real-life complex terrain problems, the Bolund hill. All the simulations reported in the thesis are carried out using a new OpenFOAM® -based LES solver. The solver uses the 4th order time-accurate Runge-Kutta scheme and a fractional step method. Moreover, development of the LES methodology includes special attention to two boundary conditions: the upstream (inflow) and wall boundary conditions. The upstream boundary condition is generated by using the so-called recycling technique, in which the instantaneous flow properties are sampled on aplane downstream of the inlet and mapped back to the inlet at each time step. This technique develops the upstream boundary-layer flow together with the inflow turbulence without using any precursor simulation and thus within a single computational domain. The roughness of the terrain surface is modeled by implementing a new wall function into OpenFOAM® during the thesis work. Both, the recycling method and the newly implemented wall function, are validated for the channel flows at relatively high Reynolds number before applying them to the atmospheric flow applications. After validating the LES model over simple flows, the simulations are carried out for atmospheric boundary-layer flows over two types of hills: first, two-dimensional wind-tunnel hill profiles and second, the Bolund hill located in Roskilde Fjord, Denmark. For the twodimensional wind-tunnel hills, the study focuses on the overall flow behavior as a function of the hill slope. Moreover, the simulations are repeated using another wall function suitable for smooth surfaces, which already existed in OpenFOAM® , in order to study the sensitivity of the flow to the surface roughness in ABL flows. The simulated results obtained using the two wall functions are compared against the wind-tunnel measurements. It is shown that LES using the implemented wall function produces overall satisfactory results on the turbulent flow over the two-dimensional hills. The prediction of the flow separation and reattachment-length for the steeper hill is closer to the measurements than the other numerical studies reported in the past for the same hill geometry. The field measurement campaign performed over the Bolund hill provides the most recent field-experiment dataset for the mean flow and the turbulence properties. A number of research groups have simulated the wind flows over the Bolund hill. Due to the challenging features of the hill such as the almost vertical hill slope, it is considered as an ideal experimental test case for validating micro-scale CFD models for wind energy applications. In this work, the simulated results obtained for two wind directions are compared against the field measurements. It is shown that the present LES can reproduce the complex turbulent wind flow structures over a complicated terrain such as the Bolund hill. Especially, the present LES results show the best prediction of the turbulent kinetic energy with an average error of 24.1%, which is a 43% smaller than any other model results reported in the past for the Bolund case. Finally, the validated LES methodology is demonstrated to simulate the wind flow over the existing Muukko wind farm located in South-Eastern Finland. The simulation is carried out only for one wind direction and the results on the instantaneous and time-averaged wind speeds are briefly reported. The demonstration case is followed by discussions on the practical aspects of LES for the wind resource assessment over a realistic inland wind farm.

Intelligence acquisition methods in cyber domain : examining the circumstantial applicability of cyber intelligence acquisition methods using a hierarchical model

Phenomena in cyber domain, especially threats to security and privacy, have proven an increasingly heated topic addressed by different writers and scholars at an increasing pace – both nationally and internationally. However little public research has been done on the subject of cyber intelligence. The main research question of the thesis was: To what extent is the applicability of cyber intelligence acquisition methods circumstantial? The study was conducted in sequential a manner, starting with defining the concept of intelligence in cyber domain and identifying its key attributes, followed by identifying the range of intelligence methods in cyber domain, criteria influencing their applicability, and types of operatives utilizing cyber intelligence. The methods and criteria were refined into a hierarchical model. The existing conceptions of cyber intelligence were mapped through an extensive literature study on a wide variety of sources. The established understanding was further developed through 15 semi-structured interviews with experts of different backgrounds, whose wide range of points of view proved to substantially enhance the perspective on the subject. Four of the interviewed experts participated in a relatively extensive survey based on the constructed hierarchical model on cyber intelligence that was formulated in to an AHP hierarchy and executed in the Expert Choice Comparion online application. It was concluded that Intelligence in cyber domain is an endorsing, cross-cutting intelligence discipline that adds value to all aspects of conventional intelligence and furthermore that it bears a substantial amount of characteristic traits – both advantageous and disadvantageous – and furthermore that the applicability of cyber intelligence methods is partly circumstantially limited.