32 resultados para Hidden Markov random fields
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Academic Career Paths. The early career phases of generalists in the fields of humanities, social science and education in the 1980’s and 1990’s This doctoral thesis analyses how generalist graduates of master’s degree have attached to the labour market in two different time periods, and how their career paths in the first eight years following graduation have shaped up. The thesis also analyses the channels of employment through which the generalists have got employed in their early career path. By generalists I am referring to graduates of studies in academic fields which have not qualified the person in a specific profession but rather offered a more general readiness for working life. I address two groups of generalist master’s degree graduates of The University of Turku; one including graduates of the year 1985 and the other consisting of graduates of 1995. All subjects have graduated in the field of humanities, social studies or education. 71 respondents from the group of 1985 and 80 respondents from the group of 1995 answered a survey, which provided the data for the thesis. I interpret the data through the theoretical approaches of changing working life, model of normal employment, transitional labour markets, linear life path, overlapping life courses, hidden labour market and social capital. The conclusion of the thesis is that societal era is connected with employment and career paths of academic generalists. Between the two groups there were differences especially in attachment to labor market, in forms of employment (permanent full-time job vs. temporary job) and in employment channels. Compared to the situation the 1985 group had been in after their graduation, the 1995 group - after getting their degree - became more often unemployed and/or employed in duties below their level of education. Their mobility was also greater and their contracts were often temporary, whereas the graduates of 1985 had been employed in more permanent positions. I demonstrate that the career paths of generalists can be categorized in five career types: steady state, transitory, linear, unsteady and diverging career. Graduates of 1985 have been treading on more stable paths than the latter group. The channels of employment they used were roughly equally divided between formal (e.g. newspaper advertisement and employment office) and informal (e.g. personal contacts and unprompted search for work) channels, whereas amongst the 1995 group employment happened through more varied channels and mostly through informal channels. Regardless of their year of graduation the generalists’ careers had begun to evolve already while they were still in the university and had started working at the same time. The thesis displays how the model of normal employment has weakened and career paths have become unsteady as a consequence of temporary positions. What is also evident in employment when turning from the 1980’s towards the succeeding decade is the rise of significance of the hidden labour market and social capital.
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The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.
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Ajankohtaista
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Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan suomalaisiin yliopistoihin valikoitumista 2000-luvun alussa. Tarkastelu pohjautuu yliopistoon hakeneiden, opiskelemaan hyväksyttyjen ja opiskelupaikkaa ilman jääneiden taustojen vertailuun. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää, miten koulutuksellinen tasa-arvo toteutuu opiskelemaan pääsyssä. Erityistä huomiota kiinnitetään sukupuolten, eri-ikäisten, sosiaalisten ryhmien sekä eri alueella asuvien opiskelijavalinnoissa pärjäämiseen. Lisäksi pohditaan, millaiset taustatekijät ovat yhteydessä opiskelemaan pääsyyn ja miten suomalainen yliopistokenttä on lohkoutunut yliopistoittain ja aloittain hakijoiden ja sisään päässeiden taustojen perusteella. Tutkimuksen pääaineistona on henkilöpohjainen rekisteriaineisto, joka on laadittu valtakunnallisen hakijarekisterin (HAREK) ja Tilastokeskuksen yhteistyönä. Aineisto käsittää 40 %:n satunnaisotoksen vuonna 2003 suomalaisiin yliopistoihin hakeneista (N = 55 790). Aineiston muuttujat kuvaavat hakijoiden taustoja, elämäntilannetta, aiempaa koulutusta ja lapsuudenperheen asemaa. Tutkimuksessa hyödynnetään lisäksi kokonaisjoukosta muodostettua taulukkoaineistoa (N = 139 668). Yliopistoihin hakevat eivät ole yhtenäinen ryhmä. Vaikka suurin osa hakijoista oli nuoria, oli joukossa myös varttuneempia hakijoita, jotka olivat ehtineet hankkia koulutusta ja muuta elämänkokemusta. Päävalinnat toimivat siten myös aikuishakijoiden hakuväylänä; erillisvalintoja eivät hyödynnä läheskään kaikki, joilla siihen olisi mahdollisuus. Klusterianalyysin avulla hakijoista voitiin erottaa neljä ryhmää: 1) nuoret ylioppilaat, 2) toisen tutkinnon suorittajat, 3) koulutuspääoman kartuttajat sekä 4) aikuiset lisäkouluttautujat. Opiskelemaan pääsyyn vaikuttavia tekijöitä analysoitiin logistisen regressioanalyysin avulla. Analyysin mukaan hakijan iällä oli muista taustatekijöistä riippumaton vaikutus opiskelemaan pääsyyn niin, että todennäköisyys päästä yliopistoon vähenee hakijan iän kohotessa. Parhaiten opiskelemaan pääsivät kaikkein nuorimmat, alle 20-vuotiaat hakijat, jotka siis useimmiten ovat saman kevään ylioppilaita. Vanhemmille hakijoille oli usein kertynyt jo koulutusta, mutta aiemmat tutkinnot paransivat sisäänpääsyn mahdollisuuksia vain, mikäli ne olivat korkea-asteelta. Alemmilla ammatillisilla tutkinnoilla oli pikemminkin opiskelemaan pääsyä heikentävä vaikutus. Myös se, mitä hakija oli tehnyt ennen valintakokeita, vaikutti sisäänpääsyn mahdollisuuksiin. Parhaiten valinnoissa pärjäsivät päätoimiset opiskelijat, heikoiten työttömät hakijat. Vaikka miesten hyväksymisprosentit olivat keskimäärin korkeammat kuin naisten, sukupuoli ei osoittautunut itsenäiseksi opiskelemaan pääsyä selittäväksi tekijäksi. Naisten huonompi pärjääminen valinnoissa selittyykin pitkälti sukupuolten eriytyneillä alavalinnoilla. Naisten suosimat alat kun ovat pääsääntöisesti vaikeapääsyisempiä kuin miesten. Tutkimuksessa selvisi myös, että kaupunkilaisuus lisäsi todennäköisyyttä tulla hyväksytyksi. Toisaalta opiskelemaan pääsy erosi myös asuinmaakunnittain, mikä kertoo lähinnä siitä, että eri yliopistojen sisäänpääsyasteissa on varsin suuria eroja. Yliopistojen lohkoutuminen hakijoiden sosiaalisen taustan mukaan oli paljon selvempää kuin alojen. Kaikki pääkaupunkiseudun yliopistot – lukuun ottamatta Teatterikorkeakoulua – luokittuivat isän asemalla mitaten elitistisiksi. Matalimmista taustoista haettiin Lapin, Joensuun ja Vaasan yliopistoihin. Alojen paikka elitistisyyskansanomaisuus -ulottuvuudella vaihteli suuresti yliopistoittain. Teknillistieteellinen, matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen ja kauppatieteellinen ala sijoittuivat kuitenkin keskimääräistä ylemmäs, kun taas kasvatustiede ja farmasia olivat kansanomaisimpia hakukohteita. Opiskelijaksi valikoitumisen peruselementit toistuivat myös tässä tutkimuksessa: koulutetuimpien ja hyvässä asemassa olevien vanhempien jälkeläiset saivat opiskelupaikan useammin kuin muut. Yliopistolaitoksessa vuosikymmenten saatossa toteutetut rakenteelliset muutokset eivät siis ole muuttaneet valikoitumisen peruslinjaa, joskin uutena huomiona nousi maanviljelijöiden jälkeläisten hyvä valinnoissa pärjääminen. Maanviljelijäperheestä tulevien opiskelemaan pääsyn todennäköisyys oli kaikkein suurin.
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Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.
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Kirjallisuusarvostelu
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This dissertation critically reviews the idea of meritocracy from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. Based on a discussion of classical texts of social philosophy and sociology, it is argued that meritocracy as a concept for social stratification is best compatible with the sociological tradition of status attainment research: both frame social inequality in primarily individualistic terms, centring on the role of ascribed (e.g., gender, social background) and achieved (e.g., educational qualifications) characteristics for determining individuals’ socioeconomic rewards. This theoretical argument introduces the research problem at the core of this dissertation: to what extent can the individualistic conception of social stratification be maintained empirically? Fields of study and their interaction with educational attainment levels play a prominent role in the analysis of this question. Drawing on sociological versions of segmented labour market theory, it is assumed that fields of study may channel individuals into heterogeneous political-economic contexts on the labour market, which potentially modify the socioeconomic benefit individuals derive from their qualification levels. The focus on fields of study may also highlight economic differentials between men and women that derive from the persisting segregation of men’s and women’s occupational and educational specializations rather than direct gender discrimination on the labour market. The quantitative analyses in this dissertation consist of three research articles, which are based primarily on Finnish data, but occasionally extend the view to other European countries. The data sources include register-based macro- and microdata as well as survey data. Article I examines the extent and the patterns of gender segregation within the Finnish educational system between 1981 and 2005. The results show that differences between men’s and women’s field specializations have for the most part remained stable during this period, with particularly high levels of gender segregation observed at lower educational levels. The focus in Article II rests on the effects of gender-segregated fields of study on higher education graduates’ occupational status. It is shown that fields of study matter for accessing professional jobs and avoiding low-skilled positions in Finland: at the early career stage, particularly polytechnic graduates from female-dominated fields are less likely to work in professional positions. Finnish university graduates from male-dominated fields were more likely than their peers with different specializations to work as professionals, yet they also faced a greater risk of being sorted into lowskilled jobs if they failed to make use of this advantage. Article III proceeded to analyse the joint impact of educational qualification levels and fields of study on young adults’ median earnings in Finland between 1985 and 2005. The results show that qualification levels do not confer a consistent benefit in the process of earnings stratification. Advanced qualifications raise median earnings most clearly among individuals specializing in the same field of study. When comparing individuals with different field specializations, on the other hand, higher-level qualifications do not necessarily lead to higher median earnings. Overall, the findings of this dissertation reveal a heterogeneous effect of education for achieving social positions, which challenges individual-centred, meritocratic accounts of social stratification and underlines the problematic lack of structural and institutional dimensions in the dominant account of social status attainment.
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This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.
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Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan
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Kalman filter is a recursive mathematical power tool that plays an increasingly vital role in innumerable fields of study. The filter has been put to service in a multitude of studies involving both time series modelling and financial time series modelling. Modelling time series data in Computational Market Dynamics (CMD) can be accomplished using the Jablonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model. Maximum likelihood approach has always been utilised to estimate the parameters of the JCM model. The purpose of this study is to discover if the Kalman filter can be effectively utilized in CMD. Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), with 50 ensemble members, applied to US sugar prices spanning the period of January, 1960 to February, 2012 was employed for this work. The real data and Kalman filter trajectories showed no significant discrepancies, hence indicating satisfactory performance of the technique. Since only US sugar prices were utilized, it would be interesting to discover the nature of results if other data sets are employed.
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The aim of this thesis is to propose a novel control method for teleoperated electrohydraulic servo systems that implements a reliable haptic sense between the human and manipulator interaction, and an ideal position control between the manipulator and the task environment interaction. The proposed method has the characteristics of a universal technique independent of the actual control algorithm and it can be applied with other suitable control methods as a real-time control strategy. The motivation to develop this control method is the necessity for a reliable real-time controller for teleoperated electrohydraulic servo systems that provides highly accurate position control based on joystick inputs with haptic capabilities. The contribution of the research is that the proposed control method combines a directed random search method and a real-time simulation to develop an intelligent controller in which each generation of parameters is tested on-line by the real-time simulator before being applied to the real process. The controller was evaluated on a hydraulic position servo system. The simulator of the hydraulic system was built based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm combined with the foraging behavior of E. coli bacteria was utilized as the directed random search engine. The control strategy allows the operator to be plugged into the work environment dynamically and kinetically. This helps to ensure the system has haptic sense with high stability, without abstracting away the dynamics of the hydraulic system. The new control algorithm provides asymptotically exact tracking of both, the position and the contact force. In addition, this research proposes a novel method for re-calibration of multi-axis force/torque sensors. The method makes several improvements to traditional methods. It can be used without dismantling the sensor from its application and it requires smaller number of standard loads for calibration. It is also more cost efficient and faster in comparison to traditional calibration methods. The proposed method was developed in response to re-calibration issues with the force sensors utilized in teleoperated systems. The new approach aimed to avoid dismantling of the sensors from their applications for applying calibration. A major complication with many manipulators is the difficulty accessing them when they operate inside a non-accessible environment; especially if those environments are harsh; such as in radioactive areas. The proposed technique is based on design of experiment methodology. It has been successfully applied to different force/torque sensors and this research presents experimental validation of use of the calibration method with one of the force sensors which method has been applied to.
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The emerging technologies have recently challenged the libraries to reconsider their role as a mere mediator between the collections, researchers, and wider audiences (Sula, 2013), and libraries, especially the nationwide institutions like national libraries, haven’t always managed to face the challenge (Nygren et al., 2014). In the Digitization Project of Kindred Languages, the National Library of Finland has become a node that connects the partners to interplay and work for shared goals and objectives. In this paper, I will be drawing a picture of the crowdsourcing methods that have been established during the project to support both linguistic research and lingual diversity. The National Library of Finland has been executing the Digitization Project of Kindred Languages since 2012. The project seeks to digitize and publish approximately 1,200 monograph titles and more than 100 newspapers titles in various, and in some cases endangered Uralic languages. Once the digitization has been completed in 2015, the Fenno-Ugrica online collection will consist of 110,000 monograph pages and around 90,000 newspaper pages to which all users will have open access regardless of their place of residence. The majority of the digitized literature was originally published in the 1920s and 1930s in the Soviet Union, and it was the genesis and consolidation period of literary languages. This was the era when many Uralic languages were converted into media of popular education, enlightenment, and dissemination of information pertinent to the developing political agenda of the Soviet state. The ‘deluge’ of popular literature in the 1920s to 1930s suddenly challenged the lexical orthographic norms of the limited ecclesiastical publications from the 1880s onward. Newspapers were now written in orthographies and in word forms that the locals would understand. Textbooks were written to address the separate needs of both adults and children. New concepts were introduced in the language. This was the beginning of a renaissance and period of enlightenment (Rueter, 2013). The linguistically oriented population can also find writings to their delight, especially lexical items specific to a given publication, and orthographically documented specifics of phonetics. The project is financially supported by the Kone Foundation in Helsinki and is part of the Foundation’s Language Programme. One of the key objectives of the Kone Foundation Language Programme is to support a culture of openness and interaction in linguistic research, but also to promote citizen science as a tool for the participation of the language community in research. In addition to sharing this aspiration, our objective within the Language Programme is to make sure that old and new corpora in Uralic languages are made available for the open and interactive use of the academic community as well as the language societies. Wordlists are available in 17 languages, but without tokenization, lemmatization, and so on. This approach was verified with the scholars, and we consider the wordlists as raw data for linguists. Our data is used for creating the morphological analyzers and online dictionaries at the Helsinki and Tromsø Universities, for instance. In order to reach the targets, we will produce not only the digitized materials but also their development tools for supporting linguistic research and citizen science. The Digitization Project of Kindred Languages is thus linked with the research of language technology. The mission is to improve the usage and usability of digitized content. During the project, we have advanced methods that will refine the raw data for further use, especially in the linguistic research. How does the library meet the objectives, which appears to be beyond its traditional playground? The written materials from this period are a gold mine, so how could we retrieve these hidden treasures of languages out of the stack that contains more than 200,000 pages of literature in various Uralic languages? The problem is that the machined-encoded text (OCR) contains often too many mistakes to be used as such in research. The mistakes in OCRed texts must be corrected. For enhancing the OCRed texts, the National Library of Finland developed an open-source code OCR editor that enabled the editing of machine-encoded text for the benefit of linguistic research. This tool was necessary to implement, since these rare and peripheral prints did often include already perished characters, which are sadly neglected by the modern OCR software developers, but belong to the historical context of kindred languages and thus are an essential part of the linguistic heritage (van Hemel, 2014). Our crowdsourcing tool application is essentially an editor of Alto XML format. It consists of a back-end for managing users, permissions, and files, communicating through a REST API with a front-end interface—that is, the actual editor for correcting the OCRed text. The enhanced XML files can be retrieved from the Fenno-Ugrica collection for further purposes. Could the crowd do this work to support the academic research? The challenge in crowdsourcing lies in its nature. The targets in the traditional crowdsourcing have often been split into several microtasks that do not require any special skills from the anonymous people, a faceless crowd. This way of crowdsourcing may produce quantitative results, but from the research’s point of view, there is a danger that the needs of linguists are not necessarily met. Also, the remarkable downside is the lack of shared goal or the social affinity. There is no reward in the traditional methods of crowdsourcing (de Boer et al., 2012). Also, there has been criticism that digital humanities makes the humanities too data-driven and oriented towards quantitative methods, losing the values of critical qualitative methods (Fish, 2012). And on top of that, the downsides of the traditional crowdsourcing become more imminent when you leave the Anglophone world. Our potential crowd is geographically scattered in Russia. This crowd is linguistically heterogeneous, speaking 17 different languages. In many cases languages are close to extinction or longing for language revitalization, and the native speakers do not always have Internet access, so an open call for crowdsourcing would not have produced appeasing results for linguists. Thus, one has to identify carefully the potential niches to complete the needed tasks. When using the help of a crowd in a project that is aiming to support both linguistic research and survival of endangered languages, the approach has to be a different one. In nichesourcing, the tasks are distributed amongst a small crowd of citizen scientists (communities). Although communities provide smaller pools to draw resources, their specific richness in skill is suited for complex tasks with high-quality product expectations found in nichesourcing. Communities have a purpose and identity, and their regular interaction engenders social trust and reputation. These communities can correspond to research more precisely (de Boer et al., 2012). Instead of repetitive and rather trivial tasks, we are trying to utilize the knowledge and skills of citizen scientists to provide qualitative results. In nichesourcing, we hand in such assignments that would precisely fill the gaps in linguistic research. A typical task would be editing and collecting the words in such fields of vocabularies where the researchers do require more information. For instance, there is lack of Hill Mari words and terminology in anatomy. We have digitized the books in medicine, and we could try to track the words related to human organs by assigning the citizen scientists to edit and collect words with the OCR editor. From the nichesourcing’s perspective, it is essential that altruism play a central role when the language communities are involved. In nichesourcing, our goal is to reach a certain level of interplay, where the language communities would benefit from the results. For instance, the corrected words in Ingrian will be added to an online dictionary, which is made freely available for the public, so the society can benefit, too. This objective of interplay can be understood as an aspiration to support the endangered languages and the maintenance of lingual diversity, but also as a servant of ‘two masters’: research and society.