Profit at Risk as a Risk Management Tool in Deregulated Energy Markets

Euroopan energiamarkkinat ovat olleet viimeisen kymmenen vuoden aikana suurten muutosten alla. Markkinoiden kehitys on ollut huomattavaa myös Iso-Britanniassa, jossa sähkö- ja kaasumarkkinat ovat olleet avoinna kilpailulle jo muutamia vuosia. Ennen markkinoiden avautumista energiyhtiöt pystyivät siirtämään kaikki riskit suoraan asiakkaan kannettaviksi. Markkinoiden avautumisen myötä lisääntynyt kilpailu on kuitenkin pakottanut energiayhtiöitä ajanmukaistamaan näkemyksiään riskeistä. Riskitekijät, joista ei aiemmin tarvinnut välittää, on nyt pystyttävä tunnistamaan ja hallitsemaan. Tämä työ keskittyy hinta- ja volyymiriskien hallintaan. Rahoitusmarkkinoilla pitkään käytettyjä riskienhallintatyökaluja on otettu käyttöön myös energiamarkkinoilla. Energiamarkkinoiden piirteet poikkeavat kuitenkin rahoitusmarkkinoista, eikä näitä työkaluja voida ottaa käyttöön muutoksitta. Silti, jopa muutosten jälkeen rahoitusmarkkinoiden riskienhallitavälineet aliarvioivat energiamarkkinoiden hinta- ja volyymiriskejä. Tässä yhteydessä työssä esitetään Profit at Risk, PaR. PaR on skenaariopohjainen riskienhallinnan työkalu, joka on kehitetty erityisesti energiamarkkinoille ja täten huomioi niiden erikoispiirteet. Työn rungon muodostavat energiamarkkinoiden käyttäytyminen, hinta- ja volyymiriskitekijät sekä pohdinta miten hinta- ja volyymiriskeiltä voidaan suojautua ja miten niitä voidaan hallita. PaR-metodologiaa verrataan perinteisiin riskienhallintamenetelmiin ja työn tavoitteena on tuoda esiin ne tekijät, joiden ansiosta PaR on sopivampi työkalu energiamarkkinoiden riskienhallintaan kuin perinteiset menetelmät. Käytännön esimerkkinä työssä toimii Fortum Energy plus’n PaR –malli. Koska PaR on kehitetty erityisesti energiamarkkinoille, se huomioi täysin markkinoiden aiheuttamat hinta- ja volyymiriskit. Käytännön esimerkki kuitenkin osoittaa, että PaR menetelmästä ei ole riskienhallinnallista hyötyä ellei työkalun käyttäjällä ole täydellistä tietämystä niin energiamarkkinoista kuin markkinoiden muutoksiin vaikuttavien tekijöiden käyttäytymisestä.

Calculation analysis of energy saving tools for fan and pump applications

This thesis analyses the calculation of FanSave and PumpSave energy saving tools calculation. With these programs energy consumption of variable speed drive control for fans and pumps can be compared to other control methods. With FanSave centrifugal and axial fans can be examined and PumpSave deals with centrifugal pumps. By means of these programs also suitable frequency converter can be chosen from the ABB collection. Programs need as initial values information about the appliances like amount of flow and efficiencies. Operation time is important factor when calculating the annual energy consumption and information about it are the length and profile. Basic theory related to fans and pumps is introduced without more precise instructions for dimensioning. FanSave and PumpSave contain various methods for flow control. These control methods are introduced in the thesis based on their operational principles and suitability. Also squirrel cage motor and frequency converter are introduced because of their close involvement to fans and pumps. Second part of the thesis contains comparison between results of FanSave’s and PumpSave’s calculation and performance curve based calculation. Also laboratory tests were made with centrifugal and axial fan and also with centrifugal pump. With the results from this thesis the calculation of these programs can be adjusted to be more accurate and also some new features can be added.

Electric energy recovery system for a hydraulic forklift

This thesis studies the possibilities to recover energy in a hydraulic forklift system. Controlling of the system is done directly with an electric servo motor drive and a hydraulic pump. A real system was built and tested and simulations of the system were made with Matlab. Results of the system and simulations were analysed and compared and according to them, energy can be recovered efficiently from the hydraulic forklift system. Also new ideas and directions of further research were obtained with the help of this research.

Active Damping and Energy Recovery in a Hydraulic Boom Controlled by an Electric Drive

The aim of the study is to obtain a mathematical description for an alternative variant of controlling a hydraulic circuit with an electrical drive. The electrical and hydraulic systems are described by basic mathematical equations. The flexibilities of the load and boom is modeled with assumed mode method. The model is achieved and proven with simulations. The controller is constructed and proven to decrease oscillations and improve the dynamic response of the system.

Supplier Energy Audits in Thermal Power Plants

This master’s thesis handles an operating model for an electric equipment supplier conducted sale oriented energy audit for pumping, fan and other motor applications at power plants. The study goes through the largest factors affecting internal electricity use at a power plant, finds an energy audit –like approach for the basis of information gathering and presents the information needed for conducting the analysis. The model is tested in practice at a kraft recovery boiler of a chemical pulping mill. Targets chosen represent some of the largest electric motor applications in the boiler itself and in its fuel handling. The energy saving potential of the chosen targets is calculated by simulating the energy consumption of the alternatives for controlling the targets, and thereafter combining the information with the volume flow duration curve. Results of the research are somewhat divaricated, as all the information needed is not available in the automation system. Some of the targets could be simulated and their energy saving potential calculated quite easily. At some of the targets chosen the monitoring was not sufficient enough for this and additional measurements would have been needed to base the calculations on. In traditional energy audits, energy efficiency of pump and fan applications is not necessarily examined. This means that there are good possibilities for developing the now presented targeted energy audit procedure basis further.

Clean development mechanism and joint implementation in China and Russia as related to industrial energy projects

Being highly discussed the problem of climate change and global warming has been keeping importance for several of decades. As a response to the world’s need in solution for climate change disasters, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted in 1992 and supplemented with the Kyoto protocol in 1997. This work is aimed to give better understanding of the Convention, Kyoto Protocol with its mechanisms and their function, related to energy projects in such case countries, as Russia and China, in order to assist evaluation of projects cost-effectiveness. It provides basic information about the Convention and the Protocol with their regulations, overview of present situation and future post-Kyoto forecasts, while the most attention is concentrated on the clean development mechanism and joint implementation step-by-step project cycles and specific regulations in given countries. The current study disclosed that CDM and JI project cycles are resulting in a complicated process. By the moment it requires step-by-step following of a number of methodologies, spending time and finance to particular project development. Uncertainties about post-Kyoto period bring additional risk to the projects and complicate any business decision concerning Kyoto Protocol.

Conservation Laws in Cellular Automata

Conservation laws in physics are numerical invariants of the dynamics of a system. In cellular automata (CA), a similar concept has already been defined and studied. To each local pattern of cell states a real value is associated, interpreted as the “energy” (or “mass”, or . . . ) of that pattern.The overall “energy” of a configuration is simply the sum of the energy of the local patterns appearing on different positions in the configuration. We have a conservation law for that energy, if the total energy of each configuration remains constant during the evolution of the CA. For a given conservation law, it is desirable to find microscopic explanations for the dynamics of the conserved energy in terms of flows of energy from one region toward another. Often, it happens that the energy values are from non-negative integers, and are interpreted as the number of “particles” distributed on a configuration. In such cases, it is conjectured that one can always provide a microscopic explanation for the conservation laws by prescribing rules for the local movement of the particles. The onedimensional case has already been solved by Fuk´s and Pivato. We extend this to two-dimensional cellular automata with radius-0,5 neighborhood on the square lattice. We then consider conservation laws in which the energy values are chosen from a commutative group or semigroup. In this case, the class of all conservation laws for a CA form a partially ordered hierarchy. We study the structure of this hierarchy and prove some basic facts about it. Although the local properties of this hierarchy (at least in the group-valued case) are tractable, its global properties turn out to be algorithmically inaccessible. In particular, we prove that it is undecidable whether this hierarchy is trivial (i.e., if the CA has any non-trivial conservation law at all) or unbounded. We point out some interconnections between the structure of this hierarchy and the dynamical properties of the CA. We show that positively expansive CA do not have non-trivial conservation laws. We also investigate a curious relationship between conservation laws and invariant Gibbs measures in reversible and surjective CA. Gibbs measures are known to coincide with the equilibrium states of a lattice system defined in terms of a Hamiltonian. For reversible cellular automata, each conserved quantity may play the role of a Hamiltonian, and provides a Gibbs measure (or a set of Gibbs measures, in case of phase multiplicity) that is invariant. Conversely, every invariant Gibbs measure provides a conservation law for the CA. For surjective CA, the former statement also follows (in a slightly different form) from the variational characterization of the Gibbs measures. For one-dimensional surjective CA, we show that each invariant Gibbs measure provides a conservation law. We also prove that surjective CA almost surely preserve the average information content per cell with respect to any probability measure.

Energy efficiency parameters in variable speed drives

The main purpose of this thesis is to measure and evaluate how accurately the current energy saving calculation in ABB’s new variable speed drive ACS850 works. The main topic of this thesis is energy-efficiency parameters. At the beginning of this thesis centrifugal pump, squirrel cage motor and variable speed drive, including some equations related to them, are being introduced. Also methods of throttling control and variable speed drive control of centrifugal pumps are being introduced. These subjects are introduced because the energy saving calculation in ACS850 is related to the centrifugal pumps usually driven by squirrel cage motors. The theory also includes short section about specific energy of pumping. Before measurements the current energy saving calculation of ACS850 is being introduced and analyzed. The measurements part includes introduction of measuring equipment, measurement results, summary and analysis of the measurements. At the end of this thesis a proposal for an improvement to the current energy saving calculation is being introduced and few proposals are made for new energy-efficiency parameters, which could be added to variable speed drives. At the end are also thoughts

Utilisation of biomass for energy production in the North-West Russian forest industry

Traditionally, fossil fuels have always been the major sources of the modern energy production. However prices on these energy sources have been constantly increasing. The utilization of local biomass resources for energy production can substitute significant part of the required energy demand in different energy sectors. The introduction of the biomass usage can easily be started in the forest industry first as it possesses biomass in a large volume. The forest industry energy sector has the highest potential for the fast bioenergy development in the North-West Russia. Therefore, the question concerning rational and effective forest resources use is important today as well as the utilization of the forestry by-products. This work describes and analyzes the opportunities of utilising biomass, mainly, in the form of the wood by-products, for energy production processes in general, as well as for the northwest Russian forest industry conditions. The study also covers basic forest industry processes and technologies, so, the reader can get familiar with the information about the specific character of the biomass utilization. The work gives a comprehensive view on the northwest forest industry situation from the biomass utilisation point of view. By presenting existing large-scale sawmills and pulp and paper mills the work provides information for the evaluation of the future development of CHP investments in the northwest Russian forest industry.

Lanthanide Chelates as Donors in Fluorescence Resonance Energy Transfer: Exciting Prospects for Bioaffinity Assay Detection

Fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) is a non-radiative energy transfer from a fluorescent donor molecule to an appropriate acceptor molecule and a commonly used technique to develop homogeneous assays. If the emission spectrum of the donor overlaps with the excitation spectrum of the acceptor, FRET might occur. As a consequence, the emission of the donor is decreased and the emission of the acceptor (if fluorescent) increased. Furthermore, the distance between the donor and the acceptor needs to be short enough, commonly 10-100 Å. Typically, the close proximity between the donor and the acceptor is achieved via bioaffinity interactions e.g. antibody binding antigen. Large variety of donors and acceptors exist. The selection of the donor/acceptor pair should be done not only based on the requirements of FRET but also the performance expectancies and the objectives of the application should be considered. In this study, the exceptional fluorescence properties of the lanthanide chelates were employed to develop two novel homogeneous immunoassays: a non-competitive hapten (estradiol) assay based on a single binder and a dual-parametric total and free PSA assay. In addition, the quenching efficiencies and energy transfer properties of various donor/acceptor pairs were studied. The applied donors were either europium(III) or terbium(III) chelates; whereas several organic dyes (both fluorescent and quenchers) acted as acceptors. First, it was shown that if the interaction between the donor/acceptor complexes is of high quality (e.g. biotin-streptavidin) the fluorescence of the europium(III) chelate could be quenched rather efficiently. Furthermore, the quenching based homogeneous non-competitive assay for estradiol had significantly better sensitivity (~67 times) than a corresponding homogeneous competitive assay using the same assay components. Second, if the acceptors were chosen to emit at the emission minima of the terbium(III) chelate, several acceptor emissions could be measured simultaneously without significant cross-talk from other acceptors. Based on these results, the appropriate acceptors were chosen for the dual-parameter assay. The developed homogeneous dual-parameter assay was able to measure both total and free PSA simultaneously using a simple mix and measure protocol. Correlation of this assay to a heterogeneous single parameter assay was excellent (above 0.99 for both) when spiked human plasma samples were used. However, due to the interference of the sample material, the obtained concentrations were slightly lower with the homogeneous than the heterogeneous assay, especially for the free PSA. To conclude, in this work two novel immunoassay principles were developed, which both are adaptable to other analytes. However, the hapten assay requires a rather good antibody with low dissociation rate and high affinity; whereas the dual-parameter assay principle is applicable whenever two immunometric complexes can form simultaneously, provided that the requirements of FRET are fulfilled.

Alternative Energy Conversion Systems for a Micro Scale Wind Turbine

This Master's thesis deals with a Micro Scale Wind Wind Turbine application. The thesis consists of nine chapters. The first chapter is an introduction to the philosophy of a small scale wind turbine application. The second defines concepts, and lists the requirements. The third presents the whole application for an On-Grid , and for an Off-Grid arrangement, with main concentration on lighting, heating, and energy storage. The fourth deals with the Inverter's technology, which are used for the conversion of the produced power. The fifth chapter presents the available storage technology and it's possibilities. The sixth deals with the system, and the technological means used for the implementation. The seventh presents the PLC device, which was used as the controller for the management of the whole application. The eighth deals with the concept and the control application philosophy that the PLC involves. And the final chapter presents conclusions and ideas for further considerations.

Technical Wind Energy Potential in Russia

The goal of the master's thesis is a detailed research of the technical wind energy potential in Russian Federation: the distribution of the potential all over the territory of the country and the possibility of the application of the potential for power supply of various objects. The main attention of the thesis is devoted to the assessment of wind energy resources (potential) of Russian Federation, both for the territory of country in whole and for every region. Theoretical basic wind energy concepts and the scheme of transformation of kinetic energy of a wind into electric energy by modern wind turbines are given in the work. Also the costs of energy, stimuli of development of wind-engineering and obstacles which impact the industry development are analyzed. The review of existent and projected wind power plants in Russia is carried out.

Strategic groups and performance: an empirical analysis of strategic groups in the wind energy industry in Europe

The strategic group theory provides an intermediate level of analysis between a single company and the whole industry for identifying issues about the company's competitive position and strategic choices. Strategic groups are companies within an industry with similar strategic characteristics or competing on similar bases. Strategic choices are aligned with the firms’ resources. The purpose of this study was to identify the strategic groups in the wind energy industry in Europe, and study, whether a certain group membership results in financial performance differences. Altogether 80 European wind energy companies were included in the study, which were clustered into four strategic groups according to their age and growth rate. Each group corresponds to a different strategy. The results show that the wind energy companies can be clustered according to the chosen strategic characteristics. Strategic decisions were investigated with characteristic variables. Performance variables were used in the analysis measuring profitability, liquidity and solvency of the groups. These strategic choices of the companies did not have a significant influence on the firms’ performance. The more mature and slower growing group proved to be the most successful. However, the differences between groups were generally not statistically significant. The only statistically significant difference found was in the solvency ratio between Mature Slow and Young Rapid groups. Measured with these variables, more mature and slower growing companies performed better. Therefore, a certain strategic group membership results in performance differences.

Small scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area in emission trading point of view

Emission trading with greenhouse gases and green certificates are part if the climate policy the main target of which is reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The carbon dioxide and fine particle emissions of energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area are calculated in this study. The analysis is made mainly by district heating point of view and the changes of the district heating network are assessed. Carbon dioxide emissions would be a bit higher, if the district heating network is expanded, but then the fine particle emissions would be much lower. Carbon dioxide emissions are roughly 10 % higher, if the district heating network is expanded at same rate as it has in past five years in the year 2030. The expansion of district heating network would decrease the fine particle emissions about 40 %. The cost of the expansion is allocated to be reduction cost of the fine particle emissions, which is considerably higher than the traditional reduction methods costs. The possible new nuclear plant would reduce the emissions considerably and the costs of the nuclear plant would be relatively low comparing the other energy production methods.