Advanced chemometric methods: Applicability on industrial data

Recent years have produced great advances in the instrumentation technology. The amount of available data has been increasing due to the simplicity, speed and accuracy of current spectroscopic instruments. Most of these data are, however, meaningless without a proper analysis. This has been one of the reasons for the overgrowing success of multivariate handling of such data. Industrial data is commonly not designed data; in other words, there is no exact experimental design, but rather the data have been collected as a routine procedure during an industrial process. This makes certain demands on the multivariate modeling, as the selection of samples and variables can have an enormous effect. Common approaches in the modeling of industrial data are PCA (principal component analysis) and PLS (projection to latent structures or partial least squares) but there are also other methods that should be considered. The more advanced methods include multi block modeling and nonlinear modeling. In this thesis it is shown that the results of data analysis vary according to the modeling approach used, thus making the selection of the modeling approach dependent on the purpose of the model. If the model is intended to provide accurate predictions, the approach should be different than in the case where the purpose of modeling is mostly to obtain information about the variables and the process. For industrial applicability it is essential that the methods are robust and sufficiently simple to apply. In this way the methods and the results can be compared and an approach selected that is suitable for the intended purpose. Differences in data analysis methods are compared with data from different fields of industry in this thesis. In the first two papers, the multi block method is considered for data originating from the oil and fertilizer industries. The results are compared to those from PLS and priority PLS. The third paper considers applicability of multivariate models to process control for a reactive crystallization process. In the fourth paper, nonlinear modeling is examined with a data set from the oil industry. The response has a nonlinear relation to the descriptor matrix, and the results are compared between linear modeling, polynomial PLS and nonlinear modeling using nonlinear score vectors.

Distribution and role of macrophytes in coastal lagoons : implications of critical shifts

Crossroads, crucibles and refuges are three words that may describe natural coastal lagoon environments. The words refer to the complex mix of marine and terrestrial influences, prolonged dilution due to the semi-enclosed nature and the function of a habitat for highly diverse plant and animal communities, some of which are endangered. To attain a realistic picture of the present situation, high vulnerability to anthropogenic impact should be added to the description. As the sea floor in coastal lagoons is usually entirely photic, macrophyte primary production is accentuated compared with open sea environments. There is, however, a lack of proper knowledge on the importance of vegetation for the general functioning of coastal lagoon ecosystems. The aim of this thesis is to assess the role of macrophyte diversity, cover and species identity over temporal and spatial scales for lagoon functions, and to determine which steering factors primarily restrict the qualitative and quantitative composition of vegetation in coastal lagoons. The results are linked to patterns of related trophic levels and the indicative potential of vegetation for assessment of general conditions in coastal lagoons is evaluated. This thesis includes five field studies conducted in flads and glo-flads in the brackish water northern Baltic Sea. Flads and glo-flads are defined as a Baltic variety of coastal lagoons, which due to an inlet threshold and post-glacial landuplift slowly will be isolated from the open sea. This process shrinks inlet size, increases exposure and water retention, and is called habitat isolation. The studied coastal lagoons are situated in the archipelago areas of the eastern coast of Sweden, the Åland Islands and the south-west mainland of Finland, where land-uplift amounts to ca. 5 mm/ per year. Out of 400 evaluated sites, a total of 70 lagoons varying in inlet size, archipelago position and anthropogenic influence to cover for essential environmental variation were chosen for further inventory. Vegetation composition, cover and richness were measured together with several hydrographic and morphometric variables in the lagoons both seasonally and inter-annually to cover for general regional, local and temporal patterns influencing lagoon and vegetation development. On smaller species-level scale, the effects of macrophyte species identity and richness for the fish habitat function were studied by examining the influence of plant interaction on juvenile fish diversity. Thus, the active election of plant monoand polycultures by fish and the diversity of fish in the respective culture were examined and related to plant height and water depth. The lagoons and vegetation composition were found to experience a regime shift initiated by increased habitat isolation along with land-uplift. Vegetation composition altered, richness decreased and cover increased forming a less isolated and more isolated regime, named the vascular plant regime and charophyte regime, respectively according to the dominant vegetation. As total phosphorus in the water, turbidity and the impact of regional influences decreased in parallel, the dominance of charophytes and increasing cover seemed to buffer and stabilize conditions in the charophyte regime and indicated an increased functional role of vegetation for the lagoon ecosystem. The regime pattern was unaffected by geographical differences, while strong anthropogenic impact seemed to distort the pattern due to loss of especially Chara tomentosa L. in the charophyte regime. The regimes were further found unperturbed by short-time temporal fluctuations. In fact the seasonal and inter-annual dynamics reinforced the functional difference between the regimes by the increasing role of vegetation along habitat isolation and the resemblance to lake environments for the charophyte regime. For instance, greater total phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in the water in the beginning of the season in the charophyte regime compared with the vascular plant regime presented a steeper reduction to even lower values than in the vascular plant regime along the season. Despite a regional importance and positive relationship of macrophyte diversity in relation to trophic diversity, species identity was underlined in the results of this thesis, especially with decreasing spatial scale. This result was supported partly by the increased role of charophytes in the functioning of the charophyte regime, but even more explicitly by the species-specific preference of juvenile fish for tall macrophyte monocultures. On a smaller species-level scale, tall plant species in monoculture seemed to be able to increase their length, indicating that negative selection forms preferred habitat structures, which increase fish diversity. This negative relationship between plant and fish diversity suggest a shift in diversity patterns among trohic levels on smaller scale. Thus, as diversity patterns seem complex and diverge among spatial scales, it might be ambiguous to extend the understanding of diversity relationships from one trophic level to the other. All together, the regime shift described here presents similarities to the regime development in marine lagoon environments and shallow lakes subjected to nutrient enrichment. However, due to nutrient buffering by vegetation with increased isolation and water retention as a consequence of the inlet threshold, the development seems opposite to the course along an eutrophication gradient described in marine lagoons lacking an inlet threshold, where the role of vegetation decreases. Thus, the results imply devastating consequences of inlet dredging (decreasing isolation) in terms of vegetation loss and nutrient release, and call for increased conservational supervision. Especially the red listed charophytes would suffer negatively from such interference and the consequences are likely to also deteriorate juvenile fish production. The fact that a new species to Finland, Chara connivens Salzm. Ex. Braun 1835 was discovered during this study further indicates a potential of the lagoons serving as refuges for rare species.

Sotilaslentäjän fyysinen suorituskyky sekä työperäiset tuki- ja liikuntaelinoireet

Kirjallisuudesta välittyy useitten vuosikymmenten ajalta tietämys sotilaslentämisen fyysisestä kuormittavuudesta. G-voimista aiheutuva kuormittuminen näyttää johtavan joko akuutisti tai pitkäaikaisesti lentäjän tuki- ja liikuntaelimistön toimintakykyä alentaviin ongelmiin. Erityisesti on selvitetty niskan alueen työperäisten ongelmien syntyä, jolloin on havaittu lentotoiminnan fyysisen kuormittavuuden johtavan ennenaikaiseen rakenteelliseen rappeumaan, haittaa aiheuttavan oireen lisäksi. Kansainvälisen kirjallisuuden mukaan ammatista johtuvista eli työperäisistä oireista kärsii vähintään 2/3 kaikista sotilaslentäjistä. Tietyin edellytyksin lentäjien kaularangan alueen rappeuma on Suomessa hyväksytty ammattitaudiksi vuodesta 1995 alkaen. On arveltu, että hyvästä fyysisestä suorituskyvystä olisi apua tuki- ja liikuntaelin (TULE)-oireilun ennaltaehkäisemisessä ja toimintakyvyn ylläpitämisessä. Tutkimusnäyttö tästä on lentäjien osalta ollut toistaiseksi erittäin niukkaa. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää suomalaisten sotilaslentäjien työperäisen TULE-oireilun esiintyvyyttä, oireista koetun haitan tasoa, lentäjien fyysisen kunnon tasoja virkauran aikana ja näitten kaikkien välisiä yhteyksiä sekä työperäisen TULE-oireen merkitystä sotilaan toimintakykyyn. Tutkimus jakautui kahteen osaan. Poikkileikkauksena lentotoimintaperäisiä TULE-oireita kartoitettiin kyselytutkimuksella, johon vastasi vuositarkastuksen yhteydessä 267 lentäjää vuosina 2004-2005. Joukosta poimittiin ne 195 lentäjää, jotka olivat suorittaneet yleissotilaalliset kuntotestit puolen vuoden sisällä kyselyyn vastaamisesta, ja mitatut testitulokset yhdistettiin kyselytutkimusaineistoon. Tässä aineistossa toteutettiin fyysisesti erilailla kuormittuvien lentäjäryhmien välisiä vertailuja fyysisen kunnon, TULE-esiintyvyyden ja koetun haitan suhteen. Poikkileikkausosassa tutkittiin myös lentäjien virkauran aikaisia tasoeroja yleissotilaallisissa kuntotesteissä (n=195) verrattuna muihin suomalaisiin sotilaisiin. Lisäksi (N=289) selvitettiin ilmailulääketieteellisen tarkastuksen yhteydessä mitattuja, ns. ammatillisia fyysisiä erityisominaisuuksia eri ikäluokissa. Pitkittäisosassa seurattiin 67:n Hawk-suihkuharjoituskoneella aloittaneen Ilmavoimien sotilaslentäjien lentouran aikaista lentotoimintaperäisten TULE-oireitten esiintyvyyttä vuosien 1996 ja 2008 välillä. Lisäksi tutkittiin lentäjien kontakteja työterveyshuoltoon, oireen aiheuttamaa lentokelvottomuusaikaa, työn kuormituksen kumulatiivista kertymää lentotuntien lisääntyessä ja TULE-oireiden esiintyvyyden kannalta kriittisiä ajankohtia lentouran aikana. Tulokset osoittivat, että kaikki seurannassa olleet suomalaiset sotilaslentäjät kokivat jonkinasteisen lentotoimintaperäisen TULE-oireen uransa aikana. Niskan ammattitautiluokituksen tasoisen ongelman esiintyvyys oli 4 % koko lentäjäpopulaatiosta ja 10 % suihkuharjoituskonevaiheen jo läpäisseistä, mutta vastaavanlaisia TULE-ongelmia, ilman riittävää näyttöä ammattitaudista, esiintyi lähes joka kolmannella sotilaslentäjällä. Alaselän osalta lentäjät oireilivat lähes samassa määrin, mutta näitä oireita ei toistaiseksi ole mahdollista määrittää ammattitaudiksi. Lentäjät kävivät varsin vähän valittamassa oireistaan työterveyshuoltoon, jossa käytäneen vasta silloin, kun oire jo selvästi heikentää työtehtävissä vaadittavaa toimintakykyä. Merkittävin lentotoimintaperäisten oireitten esiintymisen kasvu ajoittui 200 Hawk-lentotunnin kohdalle, jolloin koneella saavutetaan eräänlainen optimaalinen G-indeksi eli taktisen liikehtelyn G-tasoylitysten vaihtelu. Tämän jälkeen lentäjät ovat erityisen alttiina akuuteille lennonaikaisille TULE-ongelmille. Oireitten esiintyminen kasvoi eksponentiaalisesti noin 600 lentotuntiin asti. Monimuuttujamallien mukaan työperäisen TULE-oireen esiintyvyysriskiä vähensivät alaraajojen hyvä motoriikka, korkeat valintapisteet ja korkea kaulan fleksion voimataso maksimaalisessa isometrisessä testissä. Yleissotilaallisilla kuntotasoilla ei ollut yhteyttä oireiluun, mutta lihaskunnoltaan voimakkaimmat lentäjät kärsivät tilastollisesti merkittävästi vähemmän haittaa lentotoimintaperäisistä TULE-oireistaan. Yleissotilaallisissa kuntotesteissä lentäjät olivat parempia kuin muut suomalaiset sotilaat. Aktiivisimman lentouran aikana, 30-40-vuotiaina, lentäjien fyysinen suorituskyky oli normaaliväestöön nähden vain keskimääräinen ja urheilijoihin nähden keskimääräistä heikompi. Käytännössä lentäjät eivät kyenneet ylläpitämään valintavaiheen fyysistä suorituskykyään edes kadettivaiheen loppuun asti. Huomattavaa oli lisäksi, että aktiivisen lentouran päätyttyä fyysinen kunto näytti jossain määrin palautuvan kohti lähtötasoa lentäjien ikääntymisestä huolimatta. Lentäjien valintavaiheen aikana mitatun fyysisen suorituskyvyn tason säilyminen aktiivisen lentopalveluksen loppuun asti vaatisi lentäjien fyysisen toimintakyvyn ylläpidon ja kehittämisen tehostamista koulutuksen ja työuran eri vaihessa. Tähän tavoitteeseen nähden Ilmavoimien fyysisen kasvatuksen järjestelyt vaikuttivat alimitoitetuilta. Operatiivisesti huolestuttavaa oli Ilmavoimien ohjaajien fyysisen suorituskyvyn heikentyminen silloin, kun heidän taitojensa puolesta olisi pitänyt olla suorituskykyisimpiä taistelutehtäviinsä. Myös lentäjän terveyttä ja toimintakykyä pitäisi pystyä reaaliaikaisemmin seuraamaan koko lentouran aikana. Ilmavoimille suositellaan moniammatillista lähestymistä sotilaslentäjien toimintakyvyn ylläpitämiseen ja terveysriskien hallintaan yhdessä liikunnan, työterveyshuollon, lentoturvallisuusalan ja operatiivisen suunnittelun asiantuntijoitten kanssa. Lisäksi suositellaan avoimempaa ja eettisesti kestävämpää suhtautumista ammattiin liittyvien terveysongelmien kuvaamiseen sekä fyysisen kunnon kysymyksiin jo lentäjien rekrytointivaiheessa.

Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in angiosperm communities in the Baltic Sea

The biological variation in nature is called biodiversity. Anthropogenic pressures have led to a loss of biodiversity, alarming scientists as to what consequences declining diversity has for ecosystem functioning. The general consensus is that diversity (e.g. species richness or identity) affects functioning and provides services from which humans benefit. The aim of this thesis was to investigate how aquatic plant species richness and identity affect ecosystem functioning in terms of processes such as primary production, nutrient availability, epifaunal colonization and properties e.g. stability of Zostera marina subjected to shading. The main work was carried out in the field and ranged temporally from weeklong to 3.5 months-long experiments. The experimental plants used frequently co-occur in submerged meadows in the northern Baltic Sea and consist of eelgrass (Z. marina), perfoliate pondweed (Potamogeton perfoliatus), sago pondweed (P. pectinatus), slender-leaved pondweed (P. filiformis) and horned pondweed (Zannichellia palustris). The results showed that plant richness affected epifaunal community variables weakly, but had a strong positive effect on infaunal species number and functional diversity, while plant identity had strong effects on amphipods (Gammarus spp.), of which abundances were higher in plant assemblages consisting of P. perfoliatus. Depending on the starting standardizing unit, plant richness showed varying effects on primary production. In shoot density-standardized plots, plant richness increased the shoot densities of three out of four species and enhanced the plant biomass production. Both positive complementarity and selection effects were found to underpin the positive biodiversity effects. In shoot biomass-standardized plots, richness effects only affected biomass production of one species. Negative selection was prevalent, counteracting positive complementarity, which resulted in no significant biodiversity effect. The stability of Z. marina was affected by plant richness in such that Z. marina growing in polycultures lost proportionally less biomass than Z. marina in monocultures and thus had a higher resistance to shading. Monoculture plants in turn gained biomass faster, and thereby had a faster recovery than Z. marina growing in polycultures. These results indicate that positive interspecific interactions occurred during shading, while the faster recovery of monocultures suggests that the change from shading stress to recovery resulted in a shift from positive interactions to resource competition between species. The results derived from this thesis show that plant diversity affects ecosystem functioning and contribute to the growing knowledge of plant diversity being an important component of aquatic ecosystems. Diverse plant communities sustain higher primary productivity than comparable monocultures, affect faunal communities positively and enhance stability. Richness and identity effects vary, and identity has generally stronger effects on more variables than richness. However, species-rich communities are likely to contain several species with differing effects on functions, which renders species richness important for functioning. Mixed meadows add to coastal ecosystem functioning in the northern Baltic Sea and may provide with services essential for human well-being.

Hisseissä käytettävän kulmakorin tuotekehitys ja tuotteistaminen

Diplomityö käsittelee hisseissä erikoistapauksessa käytettävän kulmakorin suunnittelua ja tuotteistamista. Työ suoritetaan KONE Oyj:lle. Diplomityössä luotiin kulmakorille modulaarinen tuotearkkitehtuuri ja määritettiin korin toimitusprosessi. Työn tavoitteena oli saavuttaa 48,12% asiakkaiden mahdollisista vaatimuksista ja vähentää suunnitteluun kuluvaa aikaa aikaisemmasta 24 tunnista neljään tuntiin. Työn tavoite saavutettiin kokeneen tapauskohtaisten kulmakorien suunnittelijan kommenttien perusteella. 48,12% asiakasvaatimuksista sisällytettiin tuotemalliin konfigurointimahdollisuuksina. Työn alussa on esitelty tuotesuunnittelua, laadun hallintaa, parametrista mallinnusta, massakustomointia ja tuotetiedon hallintaa. Sen jälkeen on käsitelty kulmakorin tuotteistamisen kannalta kaikki tärkeimmät muuttujat. Tämän jälkeen kulmakorin tuotemalli suunnitellaan ja mallinnetaan systemaattisesti ylhäältä-alas –mallinnustapaa käyttäen ja luodaan osille ja kokoonpanoille valmistuskuvat. Päätyökaluna työssä käytettiin Pro/ENGINEER-ohjelmistoa. Tällä mallinnettiin parametrinen tuotemalli ja rakenteiden lujuustarkastelussa käytettiin ohjelmistoa Ansys. Työn tavoite saavutettiin analysoimalla massakustomoinnin perusteiden olennaisimmat osat ja seuraamalla analyyttistä ja systemaattista tuotekehitysprosessia. Laatua painottaen tuotearkkitehtuuri validoitiin suorittamalla rajoitettu tuotanto, joka sisälsi kolme tuotemallilla konfiguroitua kulmakoria. Yksi koreista testikasattiin Hyvinkään tehtaalla.

Spatiotemporal Features of Coastal Waters in Southwest Finland

In coastal waters, physico-chemical and biological properties and constituents vary at different time scales. In the study area of this thesis, within the Archipelago Sea in the northern Baltic Sea, seasonal cycles of light and temperature set preconditions for intra-annual variations, but developments at other temporal scales occur as well. Weather-induced runoffs and currents may alter water properties over the short term, and the consequences over time of eutrophication and global changes are to a degree unpredictable. The dynamic characteristics of northern Baltic Sea waters are further diversified at the archipelago coasts. Water properties may differ in adjacent basins, which are separated by island and underwater thresholds limiting water exchange, making the area not only a mosaic of islands but also one of water masses. Long-term monitoring and in situ observations provide an essential data reserve for coastal management and research. Since the seasonal amplitudes of water properties are so high, inter-annual comparisons of water-quality variables have to be based on observations sampled at the same time each year. In this thesis I compare areas by their temporal characteristics, using both inter-annual and seasonal data. After comparing spatial differences in seasonal cycles, I conclude that spatial comparisons and temporal generalizations have to be made with caution. In classifying areas by the state of their waters, the results may be biased even if the sampling is annually simultaneous, since the dynamics of water properties may vary according to the area. The most comprehensive view of the spatiotemporal dynamics of water properties would be achieved by means of comparisons with data consisting of multiple annual samples. For practical reasons, this cannot be achieved with conventional in situ sampling. A holistic understanding of the spatiotemporal features of the water properties of the Archipelago Sea will have to be based on the application of multiple methods, complementing each other’s spatial and temporal coverage. The integration of multi-source observational data and time-series analysis may be methodologically challenging, but it will yield new information as to the spatiotemporal regime of the Archipelago Sea.

Interdependence of Macroeconomics Variables, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility in Latin America

This thesis examines the interdependence of macroeconomic variables, stock market returns and stock market volatility in Latin America between 2000 and 2015. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru were chosen as the sample markets, while inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, oil and gold were chosen as the sample macroeconomic variables. Bivariate VAR (1) model was applied to examine the mean return spillovers between the variables, whereas GARCH (1, 1) – BEKK model was applied to capture the volatility spillovers. The sample was divided into two smaller sub-periods, where the first sub-period covers from 2000 to 2007, and the second sub-period covers from 2007 to 2015. The empirical results report significant shock transmissions and volatility spillovers between inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, gold, oil and the selected markets, which suggests interdependence between the variables.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Healthcare Information System Selection Model for Medical Clinics

The issue of selecting an appropriate healthcare information system is a very essential one. If implemented healthcare information system doesn’t fit particular healthcare institution, for example there are unnecessary functions; healthcare institution wastes its resources and its efficiency decreases. The purpose of this research is to develop a healthcare information system selection model to assist the decision-making process of choosing healthcare information system. Appropriate healthcare information system helps healthcare institutions to become more effective and efficient and keep up with the times. The research is based on comparison analysis of 50 healthcare information systems and 6 interviews with experts from St-Petersburg healthcare institutions that already have experience in healthcare information system utilization. 13 characteristics of healthcare information systems: 5 key and 7 additional features are identified and considered in the selection model development. Variables are used in the selection model in order to narrow the decision algorithm and to avoid duplication of brunches. The questions in the healthcare information systems selection model are designed to be easy-to-understand for common a decision-maker in healthcare institution without permanent establishment.

Modelling ecological values in heterogeneous and dynamic landscapes with geospatial data

Our surrounding landscape is in a constantly dynamic state, but recently the rate of changes and their effects on the environment have considerably increased. In terms of the impact on nature, this development has not been entirely positive, but has rather caused a decline in valuable species, habitats, and general biodiversity. Regardless of recognizing the problem and its high importance, plans and actions of how to stop the detrimental development are largely lacking. This partly originates from a lack of genuine will, but is also due to difficulties in detecting many valuable landscape components and their consequent neglect. To support knowledge extraction, various digital environmental data sources may be of substantial help, but only if all the relevant background factors are known and the data is processed in a suitable way. This dissertation concentrates on detecting ecologically valuable landscape components by using geospatial data sources, and applies this knowledge to support spatial planning and management activities. In other words, the focus is on observing regionally valuable species, habitats, and biotopes with GIS and remote sensing data, using suitable methods for their analysis. Primary emphasis is given to the hemiboreal vegetation zone and the drastic decline in its semi-natural grasslands, which were created by a long trajectory of traditional grazing and management activities. However, the applied perspective is largely methodological, and allows for the application of the obtained results in various contexts. Models based on statistical dependencies and correlations of multiple variables, which are able to extract desired properties from a large mass of initial data, are emphasized in the dissertation. In addition, the papers included combine several data sets from different sources and dates together, with the aim of detecting a wider range of environmental characteristics, as well as pointing out their temporal dynamics. The results of the dissertation emphasise the multidimensionality and dynamics of landscapes, which need to be understood in order to be able to recognise their ecologically valuable components. This not only requires knowledge about the emergence of these components and an understanding of the used data, but also the need to focus the observations on minute details that are able to indicate the existence of fragmented and partly overlapping landscape targets. In addition, this pinpoints the fact that most of the existing classifications are too generalised as such to provide all the required details, but they can be utilized at various steps along a longer processing chain. The dissertation also emphases the importance of landscape history as an important factor, which both creates and preserves ecological values, and which sets an essential standpoint for understanding the present landscape characteristics. The obtained results are significant both in terms of preserving semi-natural grasslands, as well as general methodological development, giving support to science-based framework in order to evaluate ecological values and guide spatial planning.