Populismimittari. Vuosien 2003, 2007 ja 2011 eduskuntavaalien vaaliohjelmien populistisuuden arviointi kvantitatiivisella sanastopohjaisella tekstianalyysimenetelmällä

Tutkielman keskeisimmät päämäärät ovat käsitteen populismi määritteleminen, määritelmän operationalisointi sanastopohjaisella kvantitatiivisella tekstianalyysimenetelmällä eduskuntavaaliohjelmien analysointia varten ja tehdyn analyysin validiuden tarkastelu sisällönanalyysin keinoin. Populismi on määriteltävissä ns. ohuena ideologiana. Se tarkoittaa, että populismilla on omat ideologiset ydintekijänsä, mutta voidakseen esittää kokonaisvaltaisen yhteiskunnallisen ohjelman, populistit tarvitsevat tuekseen jonkin täysipainoisen ideologian, joko liberalismin, konservatismin tai sosialismin. Populismin ydintekijöitä ovat oletus siitä, että on olemassa homogeeniset ryhmät kansa ja eliitti, kansan ja eliitin vastakkainasettelu, kansansuvereniteetti-idea sekä kansan ylistäminen ja eliitin herjaus. Kansansuvereniteetilla tarkoitetaan toisaalta oletusta siitä, että kansan tahto on määriteltävissä ja politiikan tulisi toteuttaa kansan tahtoa, sekä ajatusta siitä, että kansa on ainoa legitiimi poliittisen vallan lähde. Sanastopohjainen kvantitatiivinen tekstianalyysi perustuu oletukseen siitä, että tiettyjä sanoja käytetään selvästi useammin populistisissa kuin muissa teksteissä. Analyysissa on kyseessä tällaisten sanojen frekvenssien tarkastelu Suomen eduskuntapuolueiden vuosien 2003, 2007 ja 2011 eduskuntavaalien ohjelmissa. Tutkielmassa populismille kehitetään tunnussanasto, jonka avulla pystytään vastaamaan kysymykseen siitä, kuinka populistisia eduskuntavaaliohjelmat ovat. Perussuomalaisten ohjelmat erottuivat sanastopohjaisen analyysin avulla selvästi muita populistisempina, ja muiden puolueiden vaaliohjelmissa populismin ydintekijöitä esiintyi ylipäätään hyvin niukasti. Sisällönanalyysin avulla havaittiin, että sanastopohjaisella menetelmällä populismin ydintekijät pystyttiin havaitsemaan kohtuullisen kattavasti, mutta tuloksiin sisältyi myös virhepäätelmiä ja havaitsematta jääneitä populistisia lausumia.

Effects of subsidizing the first employee – Empirical evidence from Finland

Small businesses form a significant share of all businesses and employ a large share of all employees. Therefore, governments are often interested in subsidizing them and especially employment in smaller firms. Nonemployer firms have received special interest, especially in Finland, due to their large share of all businesses. It has been argued that the government should encourage them to hire by subsidizing employment. However, there is no evidence on the effectiveness of such policies. In general, there is surprisingly little evidence on how small firms react to employment subsidies or of employment subsidies targeted according to firm characteristics. The subject of this thesis is the effects of subsidizing the first employee. While theoretical background suggests the subsidy might have efficiency gains, because there might be market inefficiencies that lead to too little employment in small firms. The focus of this research, however, is on the empirical evidence. There was a regional subsidy for hiring the first employee in Finland between 2007 and 2011. Nonemployer firms in the subsidy area were eligible for a wage subsidy for two years when they hired the first employee. The design of the subsidy enables studying the effects in a natural experiment framework that are nowadays popular in public economics. It can be shown that the area without the subsidy provides a good counterfactual to the area where the subsidy was available. Therefore, the effects of the subsidy can be estimated with difference-in-differences method. This method compares the change in the subsidy area to the change in the area without the subsidy. The data used is firm level data spanning from 2000 to 2013. The data is provided by the Finnish Tax Administration including tax declarations by all Finland based companies. The effects for hiring decisions are estimated by examining the effects for alternative variables such as employment, wage expenditure and turnover. According to the results, the subsidy did not have statistically significant effect on any of the variables of interest. Therefore, it can be concluded that the subsidy did not increase hires in nonemployer firms. This implies that the labour demand elasticity of nonemployer firms is very small. The results are in line with previous literature on the effectiveness of general employment subsidies in Scandinavia that suggest that labour demand elasticity is rather small resulting in small or no effects of employment subsidies. However, my research provides new evidence on labour demand of nonemployer firms especially that has not been studied before. The results are in line with the observation that most nonemployer firms are self-employed persons who are not interested in growing their business to employ others as well, but only provide for themselves. Because of this employment subsidies to the self-employed are not particularly well targeted. The theoretical grounds for the subsidy actually hold for other small firms as well, so it can be argued the subsidy would be more effective if it was extended for hiring the first few employees.

Low-Volatility Anomaly in Helsinki Stock Exchange

International research shows that low-volatility stocks have beaten high-volatility stocks in terms of returns for decades on multiple markets. This abbreviation from traditional risk-return framework is known as low-volatility anomaly. This study focuses on explaining the anomaly and finding how strongly it appears in NASDAQ OMX Helsinki stock exchange. Data consists of all listed companies starting from 2001 and ending close to 2015. Methodology follows closely Baker and Haugen (2012) by sorting companies into deciles according to 3-month volatility and then calculating monthly returns for these different volatility groups. Annualized return for the lowest volatility decile is 8.85 %, while highest volatility decile destroys wealth at rate of -19.96 % per annum. Results are parallel also in quintiles that represent larger amount of companies and thus dilute outliers. Observation period captures financial crisis of 2007-2008 and European debt crisis, which embodies as low main index annual return of 1 %, but at the same time proves the success of low-volatility strategy. Low-volatility anomaly is driven by multiple reasons such as leverage constrained trading and managerial incentives which both prompt to invest in risky assets, but behavioral matters also have major weight in maintaining the anomaly.

The Impact of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis on the Relationship between Central Bank Rates and the Corresponding Interbank Interest Rates in 2002-2014

The role of central banks throughout the global financial system has become even more important during and after the events of the financial crisis. In order to stabilize the market conditions and provide solid ground for future development, the central banks use discount rate as their primary monetary policy tool in many developed and emerging economies. The purpose of this thesis is to examine how the relationship between central bank rates and corresponding interbank rates has developed before, during and after the crisis period of 2007-2009 in five developed countries and five emerging market countries. The results indicate that during the before-crisis period the interest rate markets reacted diversely but the joint recovery attempts of global economies seem to have stabilized the reactions during and especially after the crisis. The crisis also seems to have highlighted the characteristics of each country’s survival strategy as the role of other policy instruments arose.