The Rapid Rise of China’s Dairy Sector: Factors Behind the Growth in Demand and Supply, May 2005

With the rapid growth in China’s dairy industry, a number of recent papers have addressed either the supply or the demand trends for dairy products in China. None, however, presents a systematic explanation for the recent growth in both the supply and demand for dairy products. The goal of this paper is to sketch a more comprehensive picture of China’s dairy sector and to assess the nature of the sector’s development in the coming decades. Drawing upon several empirical studies, we examine the trends in dairy product consumption to create a composite picture of the factors underlying the recent growth. We also empirically investigate the sources of production gains in milk supply and assess the relative importance of expanding herd size, changes in the nature of production, technological change, and improvements in efficiency to the overall growth of milk production.

The Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, June 2005

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells’s technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan, August 2005

We explore and investigate Japanese dairy markets. We first provide an overview of consumer demand and how it evolved after World War II. Using historical data and econometric estimates of Japanese dairy demand, we identify economic, cultural, and demographic forces that have been shaping consumption patterns. Then we summarize the characteristics of Japanese milk production and dairy processing and policies affecting them. We next describe the import regime and trade flows in dairy products. The analysis of the regulatory system of the dairy sector shows how its incentive structure affects the long-term prospects of various segments of the industry. The paper concludes with policy recommendations of how to reform the Japanese dairy sector.

Vertical Product Differentiation, Entry-Deterrence Strategies, and Entry Qualities, September 2005

We analyze the entry of a new product into a vertically differentiated market in which an entrant and an incumbent compete in prices. Here the entry-deterrence strategies of the incumbent firm rely on “limit qualities.” With a sequential choice of quality, a quality-dependent marginal production cost, and a fixed entry cost, we relate the entry-quality decision and the entry-deterrence strategies to the level of entry cost and the degree of consumer heterogeneity. Quality-dependent marginal production costs in the model entail the possibility of inferior-quality entry as well as an incumbent’s aggressive entry-deterrence strategies of increasing its quality level toward potential entry. Welfare evaluation confirms that social welfare is not necessarily improved when entry is encouraged rather than deterred.

Dairy Markets in Asia: An Overview of Recent Findings and Implications, September 2005

This paper is an overview of important findings regarding the ongoing evolution of Asian dairy markets based on a series of new economic investigations. These investigations provide systematic empirical foundations for assessing Asian dairy markets with their new consumption patterns, changing industries, and trade prospects under different domestic and trade policy regimes. The findings are drawn from four case studies (China, India, Japan, and Korea), as well as a prospective analysis of future regional patterns of consumption and a policy analysis of trade liberalization of Asian dairy markets. The overview distills the findings of these new investigations and integrates them in the earlier economic literature; it draws policy implications and identifies lessons for countries outside of Asia, especially for emerging exporters in Latin America.

Managing Quality under Heterogeneous Consumer Demand and Product Quality, October 2005

Based on accepted advances in the marketing, economics, consumer behavior, and satisfaction literatures, we develop a micro-foundations model of a firm that needs to manage the quality of a product that is inherently heterogeneous in the presence of varying customer tastes or expectations for quality. Our model blends elements of the returns to quality, customer lifetime value, and service profit chain approaches to marketing. The model is then used to explain several empirical results pertaining to the marketing literature by explicitly articulating the trade-offs between customer satisfaction and costs (including opportunity costs) of quality. In this environment firms will find it optimal to allow some customers to go unsatisfied. We show that the relationship between the expected number of repeated purchases by an individual customer is endogenous to the choice of quality by the firm, indicating that the number of purchases cannot be chosen freely to estimate a customer’s lifetime value.

Global Prospects for Dairy in Argentina and Chile: Evidence from Field Visits and Model Simulations, August 2006

We assess the international competitiveness of the dairy industries in Argentina and Chile, combining recent market intelligence gathered from field visits with quantitative simulations of global policy reform scenarios. Both countries exhibit strong potential for export growth but face significant internal and external barriers to expanding their dairy industries. Global policy reforms would resolve some of the international obstacles to their expansion. Argentina has great potential, but it is handicapped by its current macroeconomic policies, trade policy distortions, and the uncertainty associated with policy implementation. Chile is more limited in terms of natural capacity for expansion, but it has a positive trade and investment environment.

Little Dairy on the Prairie: from butter makin' to high-tech agriculture, 2005

In 2001, extensive archaeological excavations were conducted at the Oneida Cheese Factory in Jones County. The county is a microcosm of larger dairying trends found throughout northeast Iowa, the state’s premier dairy-producing region. Jones County moved from homemade cheese and butter production by farm women, to the industrialization of the dairy farm and opening of cheese factories and butter creameries. A number of innovations affected the industry around the turn-of-the-twentieth century, including reliable butterfat testing, the introduction of ensilage (silos) that created yearround milk production, and consolidation of the many local creameries into larger creamery organizations, such as the Diamond Creamery run by Henry D. Sherman of Jones County. Iowa’s dairy industry of today looks very different from its heritage: consolidation and competition have drastically reduced the number of cows, dairy farms, and processing plants. In recent years, northeast Iowa has become the center of a movement to revitalize Iowa’s dairy industry, particularly through the use of value-added strategies, such as niche markets and large regional co-operatives: the lessons from Iowa’s dairying legacy are resurfacing as a solution to modern agricultural challenges.

Discounting Spotted Apples: Investigating Consumers’ Willingness to Accept Cosmetic Damage in an Organic Product, November 2006

Organic producers have limited methods of avoiding plant diseases that result in cosmetic damage to produce. Therefore, the appearance of organic produce is often less than perfect. We use an experimental auction to investigate how cosmetic damage affects consumers’ willingness to pay for organic apples. We find that 75% of the participants are willing to pay more for organic than for conventional apples given identical appearance. However, at the first sight of any imperfection in the appearance of the organic apples, this segment is significantly reduced. Furthermore, we find that there is a significant effect of interaction between cosmetic damage and product methods. Even though most consumers say they buy organic products to avoid pesticides, we find that cosmetic damage has a larger impact on the willingness to pay for organic apples than for conventional apples.

Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets, 2007

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. Retail meat, egg, and dairy prices will also increase. If oil prices are permanently $10-per-barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections, U.S. ethanol will expand significantly. The magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the U.S. automobile fleet. If sufficient demand for E-85 from flex-fuel vehicles is available, corn-based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices. The direct effect of higher feed costs is that U.S. food prices would increase by a minimum of 1.1% over baseline levels. Results of a model of a 1988-type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Corn exports would drop significantly, and feed costs would rise. Wheat feed use would rise sharply. Taking additional land out of the CRP would lower crop prices in the short run. But because long-run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage, the long-run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller CRP are modest. Cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the Corn Belt under any of the scenarios. This is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of cornbased ethanol. So long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel, switchgrass for ethanol, and corn for ethanol, they will choose to grow corn. Cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial-sized ethanol facility.

Improving Transition Outcomes: MyTransitionIowa.org Resource Mapping Product

Information about Improving Transition Outcomes statewide resource mapping product.

Asphalt Cement Concrete Longitudinal Joint Adhesive Crafco PN 34524 (Iowa DOT New Product C-98-7), HR-2084, 2000

The joint between two lanes of asphalt pavement is often the first area of a roadway which shows signs of deterioration and requires maintenance. As the final lift of hot asphalt is being placed in a construction project, it is being forced p against the adjoining lane of cold asphalt, forming the longitudinal joint. The mating of the two lanes, to form a high quality seal, is often not fully successful and later results in premature stripping or raveling as water enters the unsealed joint. The application of a hot poured rubberized asphaltic joint sealant along the joint face in the final stage of construction should help to form a watertight joint seal. A new product, especially formulated for the longitudinal joint in asphalt pavements was proposed to improve joint sealing. The following describes the experimental application of the new product, Crafco, PN 34524.

Development of an Improved Agricultural-Based Deicing Product, TR-581, 2010

Snow and ice removal on public streets is a critical part of the work of departments of transportation in northern U.S. states, including Iowa. Iowa is also a state rich in agricultural resources, some of which undergo industrial processes that generate a number of byproducts, e.g., in converting corn to ethanol or soy to biodiesel. It would be desirable to find those that, with a minimum of additional processing, can be used as a deicing compound, either alone or in combination with products currently in use. The focus of this work is therefore to investigate by-products from agricultural processes that may be suitable for use as deicing applications. This topic has been investigated in the past by others, with many patented products described in the literature. An initial screening was carried out to assess the potential acceptability of selected commercial products, as well as a glycerol developed for this project. Based on the variety of parameters tested, the product combination that shows the greatest promise for future application consists of 80% glycerol with 20% NaCl.

Time-Temperature Strength-Reaction Product Relationships in Lime-Bentonite-Water Mixtures, HR-111, 1965

The interrelation of curing time, curing temperature, strength, and reactions in lime-bentonite-water mixtures was examined. Samples were molded at constant density and moisture content and then cured for periods of from 1 to 56 days at constant temperatures that ranged from 5C to 60C. After the appropriate curing time the samples were tested for unconfined compressive strength. The broken samples were then analyzed by x-ray diffractometer and spectrophotometer to determine the identity of the reaction products present after each curing period. It was found that the strength gain of lime-clay mixtures cured at different temperatures is due to different phases of the complex reaction, lime & clay to CSH(gel) to CSH(II) to CSH(I) to tobermorite. The farther the reaction proceeds, the higher the strength. There was also evidence of lattice substitutions in the structure of the calcium silicate hydrates at curing temperatures of 50C and higher. No consistent relationship between time, temperature, strength, and the S/A ration of reaction products existed, but in order to achieve high strengths the apparent C/S ration had to be less than two. The curing temperature had an effect on the strength developed by a given amount of reacted silica in the cured lime-clay mixture, but at a given curing temperature the cured sample that had the largest amount of reacted silica gave the highest strength. Evidence was found to indicate that during the clay reaction some calcium is indeed adsorbed onto the clay structure rather than entering into a pozzolanic reaction. Finally, it was determined that it is possible to determine the amount of silica and alumina in lime-clay reaction products by spectrophotometric analysis with sufficient accuracy for comparison purposes. The spectrophotometric analysis techniques used during the investigation were simple and were not time consuming.

Production of Acetic Acid for CMA Deicer, HR-304, 1988

Although the overall objective for undertaking this project is to help decide on the best way to produce CMA, the tasks to be performed deal primarily with acetic acid itself. The objectives of our part of this project can be restated here: A. Evaluate the cost and composition of potential low-cost fermentation substrates that are available in large quantity at central locations in Iowa. B. Compare the nutritional and physiological properties of a variety of homoacetogenic bacteria relative to acetic acid production, based on information available in the literature. C. Using both of these pools of information, evaluate the possibilities for use of substrates for acetic acid production that are significantly cheaper than the previous sugar, starch hydrolysate or whole corn based studies; also, compare the different acetogens encountered with the most commonly discussed acetogen, Clostridium thermoaceticum; arrive at conclusions on 1-3 of the best agriculture-derived substrates that should be further examined, and on 1-3 of the best organisms to evaluate experimentally. D. Collect experimental data at the tube and fermentor scale on 1-2 of the possibilities in C above. E. Comment on our understanding of acetic acid production possibilities from our perspective as microbiologists, and provide all this above information to Paul Peterschmidt for him to consider for his portion of this report. F. In addition, we would like to point out the possible advantage of examining the use of an agricultural by-product, corn steep liquor, as a direct, non-fermented feedstock for a non-acetic acid deicer.