Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?

The so-called German Dominance Hypothesis (GDH) claimed that Bundesbank policies were transmitted into other European Monetary System (EMS) interest rates during the pre-euro era. We reformulate this hypothesis for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries that are on the verge of accessing the eurozone. We test this \Euro Dominance Hypothesis (EDH)" in a novel way using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach that combines country-speci c error correction models in a global system. We nd that euro area monetary policies are transmitted into CEE interest rates which provides evidence for monetary integration between the eurozone and CEE countries. Our framework also allows for introducing global monetary shocks to provide empirical evidence regarding the e ects of the recent nancial crisis on monetary integration in Europe.

Money and Liquidity

John Hardman Moore outlines his joint research with Nobu Kiyotaki on the macroeconomic questions to do with the nature of money and liquidity, and the interplay between the financial system and the aggregate economy.

The marginal utility of money: A modern Marshallian approach to consumer choice

We reformulate neoclassical consumer choice by focusing on lambda, the marginal utility of money. As the opportunity cost of current expenditure, lambda is approximated by the slope of the indirect utility function of the continuation. We argue that lambda can largely supplant the role of an arbitrary budget constraint in partial equilibrium analysis. The result is a better grounded, more flexible and more intuitive approach to consumer choice.

Financial crisis and quantitative easing: can broad money tell us anything?

When Bank of England (and the Federal Reserve Board) introduced their quantitative easing (QE) operations they emphasised the effects on money and credit, but much of their empirical research on the effects of QE focuses on long-term interest rates. We use a flow of funds matrix with an independent central bank to show the implications of QE and other monetary developments, and argue that the financial crisis, the fiscal expansion and QE are likely to have constituted major exogenous shocks to money and credit in the UK which could not be digested immediately by the usual adjustment mechanisms. We present regressions of a reduced form model which considers the growth of nominal spending as determined by the growth of nominal money and other variables. These results suggest that money was not important during the Great Moderation but has had a much larger role in the period of the crisis and QE. We then use these estimates to illustrate the effects of the financial crisis and QE. We conclude that it would be useful to incorporate money and/or credit in wider macroeconometric models of the UK economy.

Money Cycles

Operating overheads are widespread and lead to concentrated bursts of activity. To transfer resources between active and idle spells, agents demand financial assets. Futures contracts and lotteries are unsuitable, as they have substantial overheads of their own.We show that money – under efficient monetary policy – is a liquid asset that leads to efficient allocations. Under all other policies, agents follow inefficient “money cycle” patterns of saving, activity, and inactivity. Agents spend their money too quickly – a “hot potato effect of inflation”. We show that inflation can stimulate inefficiently high aggregate output.