Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Multiple Kernel Learning of Environmental Data. Case study: Analysis and Mapping of Wind Fields

The paper presents the Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) approach as a modelling and data exploratory tool and applies it to the problem of wind speed mapping. Support Vector Regression (SVR) is used to predict spatial variations of the mean wind speed from terrain features (slopes, terrain curvature, directional derivatives) generated at different spatial scales. Multiple Kernel Learning is applied to learn kernels for individual features and thematic feature subsets, both in the context of feature selection and optimal parameters determination. An empirical study on real-life data confirms the usefulness of MKL as a tool that enhances the interpretability of data-driven models.

cDNA cloning and mapping of a novel islet-brain/JNK-interacting protein.

IB1/JIP-1 is a scaffold protein that regulates the c-Jun NH(2)-terminal kinase (JNK) signaling pathway, which is activated by environmental stresses and/or by treatment with proinflammatory cytokines including IL-1beta and TNF-alpha. The JNKs play an essential role in many biological processes, including the maturation and differentiation of immune cells and the apoptosis of cell targets of the immune system. IB1 is expressed predominantly in brain and pancreatic beta-cells where it protects cells from proapoptotic programs. Recently, a mutation in the amino-terminus of IB1 was associated with diabetes. A novel isoform, IB2, was cloned and characterized. Overall, both IB1 and IB2 proteins share a very similar organization, with a JNK-binding domain, a Src homology 3 domain, a phosphotyrosine-interacting domain, and polyacidic and polyproline stretches located at similar positions. The IB2 gene (HGMW-approved symbol MAPK8IP2) maps to human chromosome 22q13 and contains 10 coding exons. Northern and RT-PCR analyses indicate that IB2 is expressed in brain and in pancreatic cells, including insulin-secreting cells. IB2 interacts with both JNK and the JNK-kinase MKK7. In addition, ectopic expression of the JNK-binding domain of IB2 decreases IL-1beta-induced pancreatic beta-cell death. These data establish IB2 as a novel scaffold protein that regulates the JNK signaling pathway in brain and pancreatic beta-cells and indicate that IB2 represents a novel candidate gene for diabetes.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: an application to Switzerland.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. METHODS: We looked at about 240,000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150,000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m(3). Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. RESULTS: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. CONCLUSIONS: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements.

A novel HIV vaccine adjuvanted by IC31 induces robust and persistent humoral and cellular immunity.

The HIV vaccine strategy that, to date, generated immune protection consisted of a prime-boost regimen using a canarypox vector and an HIV envelope protein with alum, as shown in the RV144 trial. Since the efficacy was weak, and previous HIV vaccine trials designed to generate antibody responses failed, we hypothesized that generation of T cell responses would result in improved protection. Thus, we tested the immunogenicity of a similar envelope-based vaccine using a mouse model, with two modifications: a clade C CN54gp140 HIV envelope protein was adjuvanted by the TLR9 agonist IC31®, and the viral vector was the vaccinia strain NYVAC-CN54 expressing HIV envelope gp120. The use of IC31® facilitated immunoglobulin isotype switching, leading to the production of Env-specific IgG2a, as compared to protein with alum alone. Boosting with NYVAC-CN54 resulted in the generation of more robust Th1 T cell responses. Moreover, gp140 prime with IC31® and alum followed by NYVAC-CN54 boost resulted in the formation and persistence of central and effector memory populations in the spleen and an effector memory population in the gut. Our data suggest that this regimen is promising and could improve the protection rate by eliciting strong and long-lasting humoral and cellular immune responses.

Three Generation Family With Pattern Dystrophy and a Successful Treatment of Subfoveal Cnv Related to Pattern Dystrophy With Anti-vegf Intravitreal Injections

Purpose: To phenotype a large 3 generation Swiss family with pattern dystrophy and to report a successful result of treatment with ranibizumab of a subfoveal choroidal neovascularisation (CNV) associated with pattern dystrophy in 1 patient Patients and methods: 4 affected and 3 unaffected patients (3 female 4 male, age range: 19 - 80 years) were assessed with a complete ophthalmologic examination. AF images were taken using Heidelberg Retina Angiograph and the digital color photos, fluorescein angiogragraphy (FFA) using the same TOPCON 501 camera. Electroretinogram (full-field and multifocal) was performed in 1 affected patient. One 48 years old patient developed a subfoveal CNV, which was treated with 2 injections of ranibizumab, at 3 months interval. Blood sample was taken for molecular analysis (screening of the gene RDS). Results: Two patients had a typical fundoscopic appearance of pattern dystrophy with butterfly shaped deposit at the fovea and some peripheral flecks, as shown with AF imaging.. Two others affected patients had a more unusual appearance with some macular atrophy in one or both eyes, surrounded by flecks. The visual acuity ranged from 1.0 to 0.1 according to Snellen EDTRS chart. The patient with subfoveal CNV presented a drop of vision form 1.0 to 0.6 within 10 days prior to the diagnosis and also reported some metamorphopsia. FFA and optical computerized tomography (OCT) confirmed a classic CNV. After the 1st injection her vision improved to 1.0 but persistent metamorphopsia and fluid on OCT motivated a second injection. One month after the second injection the OCT was flat and the patient had no symptoms. The results of RDS screening will be presented at the meeting. Conclusion: We present a family with pattern dystrophy, with some members having an unusual fundus appearance, which was mistaken for an early onset dry AMD. The AF imaging is a useful tool in diagnosing this condition. A CNV associated with pattern dystrophy a rare. This is the first report of a successful treatment of the CNV with anti-VEGF intravitreal injections.

Troubles cognitifs séquellaires de la rupture d'anévrysmes de l'artère communicante antérieure et de l'artère cérébrale antérieure. Etude rétrospective de 56 cas [Cognitive sequelae following rupture of aneurysms of the anterior communicating artery and the anterior cerebral artery. Retrospective study of 56 cases].

The neuropsychological records of 56 patients operated for clipping were studied. Almost every patient remained autonomous and without invalidating motor defect. The present study was aimed at specifying the type and frequency of neuropsychological sequelae and, to a lesser extent, the role of various pathophysiological factors. A main concern was to examine to what extent and at what post-operative interval the neuropsychological assessment can predict the intellectual and socioprofessional outcome of each individual patient. The neuropsychological assessment performed beyond the acute phase showed evidence of intellectual sequelae in about two thirds of the patients. Only one case of permanent anterograde amnesia was observed, probably due to unavoidable inclusion of a hypothalamic artery in the clip during surgery. Transient anterograde amnesia and confabulations were occasionally observed, generally for less than three weeks. A common finding was impaired performance on memory and/or executive tests. In a minority of patients, language disorders, visuoperceptive and visuoconstructive disabilities were found, probably in relation with hemodynamic changes at distance from the aneurysm. Global impairment of intellectual function was not uncommon in the acute post-operative phase but it evolved in most cases towards a more selective impairment, for instance restricted to executive and memory functions, in the chronic phase. The neuropsychological investigation carried out 4 to 15 weeks post-operatively provided satisfactory information about possible long-lasting intellectual disturbances and professional resumption. In particular, persistent global intellectual impairment, persistent amnesia and confabulations 4-15 weeks post-operative were associated with cessation of professional activity; executive and memory impairment, behavioral disturbances such as those encountered in patients with frontal lobe damage were associated with a decreased probability of full-time employment. Pre- and post-operative angiography were not good predictors of long-term cognitive outcome: normal angiography was not necessarily followed by normal neuropsychological outcome, conversely abnormal angiography could be found together with normal neuropsychological outcome. By contrast, there was a relationship between left-lateralised abnormalities on post-operative angiography and occurrence of language disorders; similarly, there was a relationship between side of craniotomy and type of deficits, that is language disorders versus visuoperceptive-visuoconstructive impairments.

Assessing the associations between mental disorders, cardiovascular risk factors, and cardiovascular disease : the CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study

Background: Cardio-vascular diseases (CVD), their well established risk factors (CVRF) and mental disorders are common and co-occur more frequently than would be expected by chance. However, the pathogenic mechanisms and course determinants of both CVD and mental disorders have only been partially identified.Methods/Design: Comprehensive follow-up of CVRF and CVD with a psychiatric exam in all subjects who participated in the baseline cross-sectional CoLaus study (2003-2006) (n=6'738) which also included a comprehensive genetic assessment. The somatic investigation will include a shortened questionnaire on CVRF, CV events and new CVD since baseline and measurements of the same clinical and biological variables as at baseline. In addition, pro-inflammatory markers, persistent pain and sleep patterns and disorders will be assessed. In the case of a new CV event, detailed information will be abstracted from medical records. Similarly, data on the cause of death will be collected from the Swiss National Death Registry. The comprehensive psychiatric investigation of the CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study will use contemporary epidemiological methods including semi-structured diagnostic interviews, experienced clinical interviewers, standardized diagnostic criteria including threshold according to DSM-IV and sub-threshold syndromes and supplementary information on risk and protective factors for disorders. In addition, screening for objective cognitive impairment will be performed in participants older than 65 years.Discussion: The combined CoLaus/PsyCoLaus sample provides a unique opportunity to obtain prospective data on the interplay between CVRF/CVD and mental disorders, overcoming limitations of previous research by bringing together a comprehensive investigation of both CVRF and mental disorders as well as a large number of biological variables and a genome-wide genetic assessment in participants recruited from the general population.

An integrated genetic and functional analysis of the role of type II transmembrane serine proteases (TMPRSSs) in hearing loss.

Building on our discovery that mutations in the transmembrane serine protease, TMPRSS3, cause nonsyndromic deafness, we have investigated the contribution of other TMPRSS family members to the auditory function. To identify which of the 16 known TMPRSS genes had a strong likelihood of involvement in hearing function, three types of biological evidence were examined: 1) expression in inner ear tissues; 2) location in a genomic interval that contains a yet unidentified gene for deafness; and 3) evaluation of hearing status of any available Tmprss knockout mouse strains. This analysis demonstrated that, besides TMPRSS3, another TMPRSS gene was essential for hearing and, indeed, mice deficient for Hepsin (Hpn) also known as Tmprss1 exhibited profound hearing loss. In addition, TMPRSS2, TMPRSS5, and CORIN, also named TMPRSS10, showed strong likelihood of involvement based on their inner ear expression and mapping position within deafness loci PKSR7, DFNB24, and DFNB25, respectively. These four TMPRSS genes were then screened for mutations in affected members of the DFNB24 and DFNB25 deafness families, and in a cohort of 362 sporadic deaf cases. This large mutation screen revealed numerous novel sequence variations including three potential pathogenic mutations in the TMPRSS5 gene. The mutant forms of TMPRSS5 showed reduced or absent proteolytic activity. Subsequently, TMPRSS genes with evidence of involvement in deafness were further characterized, and their sites of expression were determined. Tmprss1, 3, and 5 proteins were detected in spiral ganglion neurons. Tmprss3 was also present in the organ of Corti. TMPRSS1 and 3 proteins appeared stably anchored to the endoplasmic reticulum membranes, whereas TMPRSS5 was also detected at the plasma membrane. Collectively, these results provide evidence that TMPRSS1 and TMPRSS3 play and TMPRSS5 may play important and specific roles in hearing.

Do orthopaedic shoes improve local dynamic stability of gait? An observational study in patients with chronic foot and ankle injuries.

BACKGROUND: Complex foot and ankle fractures, such as calcaneum fractures or Lisfranc dislocations, are often associated with a poor outcome, especially in terms of gait capacity. Indeed, degenerative changes often lead to chronic pain and chronic functional limitations. Prescription footwear represents an important therapeutic tool during the rehabilitation process. Local Dynamic Stability (LDS) is the ability of locomotor system to maintain continuous walking by accommodating small perturbations that occur naturally during walking. Because it reflects the degree of control over the gait, LDS has been advocated as a relevant indicator for evaluating different conditions and pathologies. The aim of this study was to analyze changes in LDS induced by orthopaedic shoes in patients with persistent foot and ankle injuries. We hypothesised that footwear adaptation might help patients to improve gait control, which could lead to higher LDS: METHODS: Twenty-five middle-aged inpatients (5 females, 20 males) participated in the study. They were treated for chronic post-traumatic disabilities following ankle and/or foot fractures in a Swiss rehabilitation clinic. During their stay, included inpatients received orthopaedic shoes with custom-made orthoses (insoles). They performed two 30s walking trials with standard shoes and two 30s trials with orthopaedic shoes. A triaxial motion sensor recorded 3D accelerations at the lower back level. LDS was assessed by computing divergence exponents in the acceleration signals (maximal Lyapunov exponents). Pain was evaluated with Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). LDS and pain differences between the trials with standard shoes and the trials with orthopaedic shoes were assessed. RESULTS: Orthopaedic shoes significantly improved LDS in the three axes (medio-lateral: 10% relative change, paired t-test p < 0.001; vertical: 9%, p = 0.03; antero-posterior: 7%, p = 0.04). A significant decrease in pain level (VAS score -29%) was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Footwear adaptation led to pain relief and to improved foot & ankle proprioception. It is likely that that enhancement allows patients to better control foot placement. As a result, higher dynamic stability has been observed. LDS seems therefore a valuable index that could be used in early evaluation of footwear outcome in clinical settings.

MAR elements regulate the probability of epigenetic switching between active and inactive gene expression.

Gene expression often cycles between active and inactive states in eukaryotes, yielding variable or noisy gene expression in the short-term, while slow epigenetic changes may lead to silencing or variegated expression. Understanding how cells control these effects will be of paramount importance to construct biological systems with predictable behaviours. Here we find that a human matrix attachment region (MAR) genetic element controls the stability and heritability of gene expression in cell populations. Mathematical modeling indicated that the MAR controls the probability of long-term transitions between active and inactive expression, thus reducing silencing effects and increasing the reactivation of silent genes. Single-cell short-terms assays revealed persistent expression and reduced expression noise in MAR-driven genes, while stochastic burst of expression occurred without this genetic element. The MAR thus confers a more deterministic behavior to an otherwise stochastic process, providing a means towards more reliable expression of engineered genetic systems.