On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Compliance with dietary recommendations in the population of Geneva, Switzerland: a ten-year trend study (1999-2009)

Introduction: There is little information regarding compliance with dietary recommendations in Switzerland. Objectives: To assess the trends in compliance with dietary recommendations in the Geneva population for period 1999 - 2009. Methods: Ten cross-sectional, population-based surveys (Bus Santé study). Dietary intake was assessed using a self-administered, validated semi quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire. Compliance with the Swiss Society for Nutrition recommendations for nutrient intake was assessed. In all 9320 participants aged 35 to 75 years (50% women) were included. Trends were assessed by logistic regression adjusting for age, smoking stats, education and nationality, using survey year as the independent variable. Results: After excluding participants with extreme intakes, the percentage of participants with a cholesterol consumption< 300 mg/day increased from 40.8% in 1999 to 43.6% in 2009 for men (multivariate-adjusted p for trend = 0.04) and from 57.8% to 61.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted p for trend = 0.06). Calcium intake > 1 g/day decreased from 53.3% to 46.0% in men and from 47.6% to 40.7% in women (multivariate-adjusted p for trend< 0.001). Adequate iron intake decreased from 68.3%to 65.3% in men and from 13.3% to 8.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted p for trend< 0.001). Conversely, no significant changes were observed for carbohydrates, protein, total fat (including saturated, monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids), fibre, vitamins D and A. Conclusion: Fewimprovements were noted in adherence to dietary recommendations in the Geneva population between 1999 and 2009. The low and decreasing prevalence of adequate calcium and iron intake are of concern.

Age above 60 years is not a negative predictive factor for combined antiviral therapy with pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin in hepatitis C patients

Background: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral hepatitis C therapy. However, elderly patients often show relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis which is a known negative predictive factor, making it difficult to interpret age as an independent predictive factor. Methods: From the framework of the Swiss hepatitis C cohort (SCCS), we collected data from 545 antiviral hepatitis C therapies, including data from 67 hepatitis C patients ≥ 60 y who had been treated with PEG-interferon and ribavirin. We analyzed host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, depression, earlier hepatitis C treatment), viral factors (genotype, viral load) and treatment course (early virological response, end of treatment response, SVR). Generalised estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling was used for the primary end point (SVR), with age ≥ 60 y and < 60 y as independent variable and gender, presence of cirrhosis, genotype, earlier treatment and viral load as confounders. SVR was analysed in young and elderly patients after matching for these confounders. Additionally, classification tree analysis was done in elderly patients using these confounders. Results: SVR analyzed in 545 patients was 55%. In genotype 1/4, SVR was 42.9% in 259 patients < 60 y and 26.1% in 46 patients ≥ 60 y. In genotype 2/3, SVR was 74.4% in 215 patients < 60 y and 84% in 25 patients ≥ 60 y. However, GEE model showed that age had no influence on achieving SVR (Odds ratio 0.91). Confounders influenced SVR as known from previous studies (cirrhosis, genotype 1/4, previous treatment and viral load >600'000 IE/ml as negative predictive factors). When young and elderly patients were matched (analysis in 59 elderly patients), SVR was not different in these patient groups (54.2% and 55.9%, resp.; p=0.795 in binomial test). The classification tree-derived best criterion for SVR in elderly patients was genotype, with no further criteria relevant for predicting SVR in genotype 2/3. In patients with genotype 1/4, further criteria were presence of cirrhosis and low viral load <600'000 IE/ml in non-cirrhotic patients. Conclusions: Age is not a relevant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when confounders were taken into account. In terms of effectiveness of antiviral therapy, age does not play a major role and should not be regarded as relevant negative predictive factor. Since life expectancy in Switzerland at age 60 is more than 22 y, hepatitis C therapy is reasonable in elderly patients with known relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis, because interferon-based hepatitis C therapy improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

Predictive factors of adrenal insufficiency in patients admitted to acute medical wards: a case control study.

BACKGROUND: Adrenal insufficiency is a rare and potentially lethal disease if untreated. Several clinical signs and biological markers are associated with glucocorticoid failure but the importance of these factors for diagnosing adrenal insufficiency is not known. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence of and the factors associated with adrenal insufficiency among patients admitted to an acute internal medicine ward. METHODS: Retrospective, case-control study including all patients with high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation tests for suspected adrenal insufficiency performed between 2008 and 2010 in an acute internal medicine ward (n = 281). Cortisol values <550 nmol/l upon ACTH-stimulation test were considered diagnostic for adrenal insufficiency. Area under the ROC curve (AROC), sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values for adrenal insufficiency were assessed for thirteen symptoms, signs and biological variables. RESULTS: 32 patients (11.4%) presented adrenal insufficiency; the others served as controls. Among all clinical and biological parameters studied, history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the only independent factor significantly associated with patients with adrenal insufficiency (Odds Ratio: 6.71, 95% CI: 3.08 -14.62). Using a logistic regression, a model with four significant and independent variable was obtained, regrouping history of glucocorticoid withdrawal (OR 7.38, 95% CI [3.18 ; 17.11], p-value <0.001), nausea (OR 3.37, 95% CI [1.03 ; 11.00], p-value 0.044), eosinophilia (OR 17.6, 95% CI [1.02; 302.3], p-value 0.048) and hyperkalemia (OR 2.41, 95% CI [0.87; 6.69], p-value 0.092). The AROC (95% CI) was 0.75 (0.70; 0.80) for this model, with 6.3 (0.8 - 20.8) for sensitivity and 99.2 (97.1 - 99.9) for specificity. CONCLUSIONS: 11.4% of patients with suspected adrenal insufficient admitted to acute medical ward actually do present with adrenal insufficiency, defined by an abnormal response to high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation test. A history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the strongest factor predicting the potential adrenal failure. The combination of a history of glucocorticoid withdrawal, nausea, eosinophilia and hyperkaliemia might be of interest to suspect adrenal insufficiency.

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research

"Most quantitative empirical analyses are motivated by the desire to estimate the causal effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable. Although the randomized experiment is the most powerful design for this task, in most social science research done outside of psychology, experimental designs are infeasible. (Winship & Morgan, 1999, p. 659)." This quote from earlier work by Winship and Morgan, which was instrumental in setting the groundwork for their book, captures the essence of our review of Morgan and Winship's book: It is about causality in nonexperimental settings.

Compliance with the Swiss Society for Nutrition's dietary recommendations in the population of Geneva, Switzerland: a 10-year trend study (1999-2009).

The trends in compliance with the dietary recommendations of the Swiss Society for Nutrition in the Geneva population were assessed for the period from 1999 to 2009 using 10 cross-sectional, population-based surveys (Bus Santé study) with a total of 9,320 participants aged 35 to 75 years (50% women). Dietary intake was assessed using a self-administered, validated, semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Trends were assessed by logistic regression adjusting for age, smoking status, education, and nationality using survey year as the independent variable. After excluding participants with extreme intakes, the percentage of participants with a cholesterol intake of <300 mg/day increased from 40.8% in 1999 to 43.6% in 2009 for men (multivariate-adjusted P for trend=0.04) and from 57.8% to 61.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend=0.06). Calcium intake >1 g/day decreased from 53.3% to 46% in men and from 47.6% to 40.7% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend<0.001). Adequate iron intake decreased from 68.3% to 65.3% in men and from 13.3% to 8.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend<0.001). Conversely, no significant changes were observed for carbohydrates, protein, total fat (including saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fatty acids), fiber, and vitamins D and A. We conclude that the quality of the Swiss diet did not improve between 1999 and 2009 and that intakes deviate substantially from expert recommendations for health promotion and chronic disease risk reduction.

Serum Vitamin D Concentrations Are Not Associated with Insulin Resistance in Swiss Adults.

BACKGROUND: Low vitamin D status has been associated with an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance (IR), although this has been recently questioned. OBJECTIVE: We examined the association between serum vitamin D metabolites and incident IR. METHODS: This was a prospective, population-based study derived from the CoLaus (Cohorte Lausannoise) study including 3856 participants (aged 51.2 ± 10.4 y; 2217 women) free from diabetes or IR at baseline. IR was defined as a homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) index >2.6. Fasting plasma insulin and glucose were measured at baseline and at follow-up to calculate the HOMA index. The association of vitamin D metabolites with incident IR was analyzed by logistic regression, and the results were expressed for each independent variable as ORs and 95% CIs. RESULTS: During the 5.5-y follow-up, 649 (16.9%) incident cases of IR were identified. Participants who developed IR had lower baseline serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D3 (25-hydroxycholecalciferol); 45.9 ± 22.8 vs. 49.9 ± 22.6 nmol/L; P < 0.001], total 25(OH)D3 (25(OH)D3 + epi-25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [3-epi-25(OH)D3]; 49.1 ± 24.3 vs. 53.3 ± 24.1 nmol/L; P < 0.001), and 3-epi-25(OH)D3 (4.2 ± 2.9 vs. 4.3 ± 2.5 nmol/L; P = 0.01) but a higher 3-epi- to total 25(OH)D3 ratio (0.09 ± 0.05 vs. 0.08 ± 0.04; P = 0.007). Multivariable analysis adjusting for month of sampling, age, and sex showed an inverse association between 25(OH)D3 and the likelihood of developing IR [ORs (95% CIs): 0.86 (0.68, 1.09), 0.60 (0.46, 0.78), and 0.57 (0.43, 0.75) for the second, third, and fourth quartiles compared with the first 25(OH)D3 quartile; P-trend < 0.001]. Similar associations were found between total 25(OH)D3 and incident IR. There was no significant association between 3-epi-25(OH)D3 and IR, yet a positive association was observed between the 3-epi- to total 25(OH)D3 ratio and incident IR. Further adjustment for body mass index, sedentary status, and smoking attenuated the association between 25(OH)D3, total 25(OH)D3, and the 3-epi- to total 25(OH)D3 ratio and the likelihood of developing IR. CONCLUSION: In the CoLaus study in healthy adults, the risk of incident IR is not associated with serum concentrations of 25(OH)D3 and total 25(OH)D3.

Testing mediation: The endogeneity problem and the solution

A mediator is a dependent variable, m (e.g., charisma), that is thought to channel the effect of an independent variable, x (e.g., receiving training or not), on another dependent variable (e.g., subordinate satisfaction), y. In experimental settings x is manipulated-subjects are randomized to treatment-to isolate the causal effect of x on other variables. If m is not or cannot be manipulated, which is often the case, its causal effect on other variables cannot be determined; thus, standard mediation tests cannot inform policy or practice. I will show how an econometric procedure, called instrumental-variable estimation, can examine mediation in such cases.

Pretherapeutic gamma-glutamyltransferase is an independent prognostic factor for patients with renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) regulates apoptotic balance and promotes cancer progression and invasion. Higher pretherapeutic GGT serum levels have been associated with worse outcomes in various malignancies, but there are no data for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). METHODS: Pretherapeutic GGT serum levels and clinicopathological parameters were retrospectively evaluated in 921 consecutive RCC patients treated with nephrectomy at a single institution between 1998 and 2013. Gamma-glutamyltransferase was analysed as continuous and categorical variable. Associations with RCC-specific survival were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models. Discrimination was measured with the C-index. Decision-curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical net benefit. The median postoperative follow-up was 45 months. RESULTS: Median pretherapeutic serum GGT level was 25 U l(-1). Gamma-glutamyltransferase levels increased with advancing T (P<0.001), N (P=0.006) and M stages (P<0.001), higher grades (P<0.001), and presence of tumour necrosis (P<0.001). An increase of GGT by 10 U l(-1) was associated with an increase in the risk of death from RCC by 4% (HR 1.04, P<0.001). Based on recursive partitioning-based survival tree analysis, we defined four prognostic categories of GGT: normal low (<17.5 U l(-1)), normal high (17.5 to <34.5 U l(-1)), elevated (34.5 to <181.5 U l(-1)), and highly elevated (⩾181.5 U l(-1)). In multivariable analyses that adjusted for the effect of standard features, both continuously and categorically coded GGT were independent prognostic factors. Adding GGT to a model that included standard features increased the discrimination by 0.9% to 1.8% and improved the clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Pretherapeutic serum GGT is a novel and independent prognostic factor for patients with RCC. Stratifying patients into prognostic subgroups according to GGT may be used for patient counselling, tailoring surveillance, individualised treatment planning, and clinical trial design.

Hydrogen and oxygen isotope behaviors during variable degrees of upper mantle melting: Example from the basaltic glasses from Macquarie Island

We present measurements of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in MORB glasses from Macquarie Island (SW. Pacific Ocean) coupled with determination of bulk H2O content by two independent techniques: total dehydration and FTIR. The incompatible trace elements in these glasses vary by a factor of 12 to 17, with K2O varying from 0.1 to 1.7 wt.%; these ranges reflect a variable degree of closed-system mantle melting, estimated from 1 to 15%. Water concentrations determined by the two techniques match well, yielding a range from 0.25 to 1.49 wt.% which correlates positively with all of the measured incompatible trace elements, suggesting that water is un-degassed, and behaves conservatively during mantle melting. Also, the agreement between the FTIR-determined and extracted water contents gives us confidence that the measured isotopic values of hydrogen reflect that of the mantle. Comparison of the range of water content with that of other incompatible trace elements allows estimation of the water partition coefficient in lherzolite, 0.0208 (ranging from 0.017 to 0.023), and the water content in the source, 386 ppm (ranging from 370 to 440 ppm). We observe a fairly narrow range in delta D and delta O-18 values of -75.5 +/- 4.5 parts per thousand and 5.50 +/- 0 .05 parts per thousand respectively, that can be explained by partial melting of normal lherzolitic mantle. The measured delta D and delta O-18 values of Macquarie Island glasses that range from nepheline- to hypersthene-normative, and from MORB to EMORB in composition, are identical to those in average global MORB. The observed lack of variation of delta D and delta O-18 with 1 to 15% degree of mantle melting is consistent with a bulk melting model of delta D and delta O-18 fractionation, in which water is rapidly scavenged into the first partial melt. The narrow ranges of delta D and delta O-18 in normal mantle are mostly due to the buffering effect of clino- and orthopyroxenes in the residual assemblage; additionally, fast ``wet'' diffusion of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes through the melting regions may further smooth isotopic differences. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A mathematical model to describe fat oxidation kinetics during graded exercise.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop a mathematical model (sine model, SIN) to describe fat oxidation kinetics as a function of the relative exercise intensity [% of maximal oxygen uptake (%VO2max)] during graded exercise and to determine the exercise intensity (Fatmax) that elicits maximal fat oxidation (MFO) and the intensity at which the fat oxidation becomes negligible (Fatmin). This model included three independent variables (dilatation, symmetry, and translation) that incorporated primary expected modulations of the curve because of training level or body composition. METHODS: Thirty-two healthy volunteers (17 women and 15 men) performed a graded exercise test on a cycle ergometer, with 3-min stages and 20-W increments. Substrate oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry. SIN was compared with measured values (MV) and with other methods currently used [i.e., the RER method (MRER) and third polynomial curves (P3)]. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the fitting accuracy between SIN and P3 (P = 0.157), whereas MRER was less precise than SIN (P < 0.001). Fatmax (44 +/- 10% VO2max) and MFO (0.37 +/- 0.16 g x min(-1)) determined using SIN were significantly correlated with MV, P3, and MRER (P < 0.001). The variable of dilatation was correlated with Fatmax, Fatmin, and MFO (r = 0.79, r = 0.67, and r = 0.60, respectively, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The SIN model presents the same precision as other methods currently used in the determination of Fatmax and MFO but in addition allows calculation of Fatmin. Moreover, the three independent variables are directly related to the main expected modulations of the fat oxidation curve. SIN, therefore, seems to be an appropriate tool in analyzing fat oxidation kinetics obtained during graded exercise.

Evaluation of the reconstruction limits of a frequency-independent crosshole georadar waveform inversion scheme in the presence of dispersion

Waveform tomographic imaging of crosshole georadar data is a powerful method to investigate the shallow subsurface because of its ability to provide images of pertinent petrophysical parameters with extremely high spatial resolution. All current crosshole georadar waveform inversion strategies are based on the assumption of frequency-independent electromagnetic constitutive parameters. However, in reality, these parameters are known to be frequency-dependent and complex and thus recorded georadar data may show significant dispersive behavior. In this paper, we evaluate synthetically the reconstruction limits of a recently published crosshole georadar waveform inversion scheme in the presence of varying degrees of dielectric dispersion. Our results indicate that, when combined with a source wavelet estimation procedure that provides a means of partially accounting for the frequency-dependent effects through an "effective" wavelet, the inversion algorithm performs remarkably well in weakly to moderately dispersive environments and has the ability to provide adequate tomographic reconstructions.

Genome-wide patterns of latitudinal differentiation among populations of Drosophila melanogaster from North America.

Understanding the genetic underpinnings of adaptive change is a fundamental but largely unresolved problem in evolutionary biology. Drosophila melanogaster, an ancestrally tropical insect that has spread to temperate regions and become cosmopolitan, offers a powerful opportunity for identifying the molecular polymorphisms underlying clinal adaptation. Here, we use genome-wide next-generation sequencing of DNA pools ('pool-seq') from three populations collected along the North American east coast to examine patterns of latitudinal differentiation. Comparing the genomes of these populations is particularly interesting since they exhibit clinal variation in a number of important life history traits. We find extensive latitudinal differentiation, with many of the most strongly differentiated genes involved in major functional pathways such as the insulin/TOR, ecdysone, torso, EGFR, TGFβ/BMP, JAK/STAT, immunity and circadian rhythm pathways. We observe particularly strong differentiation on chromosome 3R, especially within the cosmopolitan inversion In(3R)Payne, which contains a large number of clinally varying genes. While much of the differentiation might be driven by clinal differences in the frequency of In(3R)P, we also identify genes that are likely independent of this inversion. Our results provide genome-wide evidence consistent with pervasive spatially variable selection acting on numerous loci and pathways along the well-known North American cline, with many candidates implicated in life history regulation and exhibiting parallel differentiation along the previously investigated Australian cline.