Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method

An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.

Transport of a biocontrol Pseudomonas fluorescens through 2.5-m deep outdoor lysimeters and survival in the effluent water

Application of wild-type or genetically-modified bacteria to the soil environment entails the risk of dissemination of these organisms to the groundwater. To measure vertical transport of bacteria under natural climatic conditions, Pseudomonas fluorescens strain CHA0 was released together with bromide as a mobile tracer at the surface of large outdoor lysimeters. Two experiments, one starting in autumn 1993 and the other in spring 1994 were performed. Shortly after a heavy rainfall in late spring 1994, the released bacteria were detected for the first time in effluent water from the 2.5-m-deep lysimeters in both experiments, i.e. 210 d and 21 d, respectively, after inoculation. Only a 10−9 to 10−8 fraction of the inoculum was recovered as culturable cells in the effluent water, but a larger fraction of the CHA0 cells was in a non-culturable state as detected with immunofluorescence microscopy. As much as 50% of the mobile tracer percolated through the lysimeters, indicating that, compared with bromide, bacterial cells were retained in soil. In the second part of this study, persistence of CHA0 in groundwater microcosms consisting of lysimeter effluent water was studied for 380 d. Survival of the inoculant as culturable cells was better under anaerobic than under aerobic conditions. However, a large fraction of the cells became non-culturable in both cases. When the experiment was performed with filter-sterilized effluent water, the total count of introduced bacteria did not decline with time. In conclusion, the biocontrol strain was transported in low numbers to a potential groundwater level under natural climatic conditions, but could persist for an extended period in groundwater microcosms.

Determination of radionuclide levels in rainwater using ion exchange resin and gamma-spectrometry.

The evaluation of radioactivity accidentally released into the atmosphere involves determining the radioactivity levels of rainwater samples. Rainwater scavenges atmospheric airborne radioactivity in such a way that surface contamination can be deduced from rainfall rate and rainwater radioactivity content. For this purpose, rainwater is usually collected in large surface collectors and then measured by gamma-spectrometry after such treatments as evaporation or iron hydroxide precipitation. We found that collectors can be adapted to accept large surface (diameter 47mm) cartridges containing a strongly acidic resin (Dowex AG 88) which is able to quantitatively extract radioactivity from rainwater, even during heavy rainfall. The resin can then be measured by gamma-spectrometry. The detection limit is 0.1Bq per sample of resin (80g) for (137)Cs. Natural (7)Be and (210)Pb can also be measured and the activity ratio of both radionuclides is comparable with those obtained through iron hydroxide precipitation and air filter measurements. Occasionally (22)Na has also been measured above the detection limit. A comparison between the evaporation method and the resin method demonstrated that 2/3 of (7)Be can be lost during the evaporation process. The resin method is simple and highly efficient at extracting radioactivity. Because of these great advantages, we anticipate it could replace former rainwater determination methods. Moreover, it does not necessitate the transportation of large rainwater volumes to the laboratory.

Fate of the herbicide glyphosate and its metabolite AMPA in soils and their transfer to surface waters: A multi-scale approach in the Lavaux vineyards, western Switzerland

The use of herbicides in agriculture may lead to environmental problems, such as surface water pollution, with a potential risk for aquatic organisms. The herbicide glyphosate is the most used active ingredient in the world and in Switzerland. In the Lavaux vineyards it is nearly the only molecule applied. This work aimed at studying its fate in soils and its transfer to surface waters, using a multi-scale approach: from molecular (10-9 m) and microscopic scales (10-6 m), to macroscopic (m) and landscape ones (103 m). First of all, an analytical method was developed for the trace level quantification of this widely used herbicide and its main by-product, aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA). Due to their polar nature, their derivatization with 9-fluorenylmethyl chloroformate (FMOC-Cl) was done prior to their concentration and purification by solid phase extraction. They were then analyzed by ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS). The method was tested in different aqueous matrices with spiking tests and validated for the matrix effect correction in relevant environmental samples. Calibration curves established between 10 and 1000ng/l showed r2 values above 0.989, mean recoveries varied between 86 and 133% and limits of detection and quantification of the method were as low as 5 and 10ng/l respectively. At the parcel scale, two parcels of the Lavaux vineyard area, located near the Lutrive River at 6km to the east of Lausanne, were monitored to assess to which extent glyphosate and AMPA were retained in the soil or exported to surface waters. They were equipped at their bottom with porous ceramic cups and runoff collectors, which allowed retrieving water samples for the growing seasons 2010 and 2011. Results revealed that the mobility of glyphosate and AMPA in the unsaturated zone was likely driven by the precipitation regime and the soil characteristics, such as slope, porosity structure and layer permeability discrepancy. Elevated glyphosate and AMPA concentrations were measured at 60 and 80 cm depth at parcel bottoms, suggesting their infiltration in the upper parts of the parcels and the presence of preferential flow in the studied parcels. Indeed, the succession of rainy days induced the gradual saturation of the soil porosity, leading to rapid infiltration through macropores, as well as surface runoff formation. Furthermore, the presence of more impervious weathered marls at 100 cm depth induced throughflows, the importance of which for the lateral transport of the herbicide molecules was determined by the slope steepness. Important rainfall events (>10 mm/day) were clearly exporting molecules from the soil top layer, as indicated by important concentrations in runoff samples. A mass balance showed that total loss (10-20%) mainly occurred through surface runoff (96%) and, to a minor extent, by throughflows in soils (4%), with subsequent exfiltration to surface waters. Observations made in the Lutrive River revealed interesting details of glyphosate and AMPA dynamics in urbanized landscapes, such as the Lavaux vineyards. Indeed, besides their physical and chemical properties, herbicide dynamics at the catchment level strongly depend on application rates, precipitation regime, land use and also on the presence of drains or constructed channels. Elevated concentrations, up to 4970 ng/l, observed just after the application, confirmed the diffuse export of these compounds from the vineyard area by surface runoff during main rain events. From April to September 2011, a total load of 7.1 kg was calculated, with 85% coming from vineyards and minor urban sources and 15% from arable crops. Small vineyard surfaces could generate high concentrations of herbicides and contribute considerably to the total load calculated at the outlet, due to their steep slopes (~10%). The extrapolated total amount transferred yearly from the Lavaux vineyards to the Lake of Geneva was of 190kg. At the molecular scale, the possible involvement of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in glyphosate and copper transport was studied using UV/Vis fluorescence spectroscopy. Combined with parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis, this technique allowed characterizing DOM of soil and surface water samples from the studied vineyard area. Glyphosate concentrations were linked to the fulvic-like spectroscopic signature of DOM in soil water samples, as well as to copper, suggesting the formation of ternary complexes. In surface water samples, its concentrations were also correlated to copper ones, but not in a significant way to the fulvic-like signature. Quenching experiments with standards confirmed field tendencies in the laboratory, with a stronger decrease in fluorescence intensity for fulvic-like fluorophore than for more aromatic ones. Lastly, based on maximum concentrations measured in the river, an environmental risk for these compounds was assessed, using laboratory tests and ecotoxicity data from the literature. In our case and with the methodology applied, the risk towards aquatic species was found negligible (RF<1).

Sediment budget monitoring of a debris-flow torrent (French Prealps)

The Manival near Grenoble (French Prealps) is a very active debris-flow torrent equipped with a large sediment trap (25 000 m3) protecting an urbanized alluvial fan from debris-flows. We began monitoring the sediment budget of the catchment controlled by the trap in Spring 2009. Terrestrial laser scanner is used for monitoring topographic changes in a small gully, the main channel, and the sediment trap. In the main channel, 39 cross-sections are surveyed after every event. Three periods of intense geomorphic activity are documented here. The first was induced by a convective storm in August 2009 which triggered a debris-flow that deposited ~1,800 m3 of sediment in the trap. The debris-flow originated in the upper reach of the main channel and our observations showed that sediment outputs were entirely supplied by channel scouring. Hillslope debris-flows were initiated on talus slopes, as revealed by terrestrial LiDAR resurveys; however they were disconnected to the main channel. The second and third periods of geomorphic activity were induced by long duration and low intensity rainfall events in September and October 2009 which generate small flow events with intense bedload transport. These events contribute to recharge the debris-flow channel with sediments by depositing important gravel dunes propagating from headwaters. The total recharge in the torrent subsequent to bedload transport events was estimated at 34% of the sediment erosion induced by the August debris-flow.

Jambes lourdes, insuffisance veineuse des membres inférieurs et hormonothérapie substitutive [Heavy legs, venous insufficiency of the legs and hormone substitution therapy]

The effects of estrogens and gestagens on veins and circulation have been studied since prescription of these hormones as oral contraception and description of related thromboembolic events. The identification of different receptors and the description of these receptors in venous walls have helped to understand some hormonal effects. However, the actual knowledge remains insufficient to explain the complexity of the actions of hormones on venous function. The distribution, the density and the receptor types vary with age, gender, hormonal status and vascular bed. Gestagens mainly reduce the tone of venous walls, whereas estrogens have various effects. Between 25% and 50% of European adults and even 80% or more in some risk groups complain about heavy legs, with or without chronic venous insufficiency. The number of women to whom hormonal substitution is or could be prescribed increases along with aging of populations and the better understanding of potential benefits. The need for a better understanding of vascular effects of sexual hormones is growing, since the incidence of chronic venous insufficiency of the legs increases with age. The life prognosis will not be affected by a deterioration of a chronic venous insufficiency. In contrast, the quality of life, morbidity and the cost of treatment will be expected to change. In addition, thromboembolic events have to be considered, as has been shown in recent studies. These findings outline the need for further studies on the relation between hormones and venous function and for some caution when prescribing hormonal substitution.

Automatic measurement of key ski jumping phases and temporal events with a wearable system.

We propose a new method, based on inertial sensors, to automatically measure at high frequency the durations of the main phases of ski jumping (i.e. take-off release, take-off, and early flight). The kinematics of the ski jumping movement were recorded by four inertial sensors, attached to the thigh and shank of junior athletes, for 40 jumps performed during indoor conditions and 36 jumps in field conditions. An algorithm was designed to detect temporal events from the recorded signals and to estimate the duration of each phase. These durations were evaluated against a reference camera-based motion capture system and by trainers conducting video observations. The precision for the take-off release and take-off durations (indoor < 39 ms, outdoor = 27 ms) can be considered technically valid for performance assessment. The errors for early flight duration (indoor = 22 ms, outdoor = 119 ms) were comparable to the trainers' variability and should be interpreted with caution. No significant changes in the error were noted between indoor and outdoor conditions, and individual jumping technique did not influence the error of take-off release and take-off. Therefore, the proposed system can provide valuable information for performance evaluation of ski jumpers during training sessions.

Fitness to drive and cannabis: Validation of two blood THCCOOH thresholds to distinguish occasional users from heavy smokers.

Many studies based on either an experimental or an epidemiological approach, have shown that the ability to drive is impaired when the driver is under the influence of cannabis. Baseline performances of heavy users remain impaired even after several weeks of abstinence. Symptoms of cannabis abuse and dependence are generally considered incompatible with safe driving. Recently, it has been shown that traffic safety can be increased by reporting the long-term unfit drivers to the driver licensing authorities and referring the cases for further medical assessment. Evaluation of the frequency of cannabis use is a prerequisite for a reliable medical assessment of the fitness to drive. In a previous paper we advocated the use of two thresholds based on 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) concentration in whole blood to help to distinguish occasional cannabis users (≤3μg/L) from heavy regular smokers (≥40μg/L). These criteria were established on the basis of results obtained in a controlled cannabis smoking study with placebo, carried out with two groups of young male volunteers; the first group was characterized by a heavy use (≥10 joints/month) while the second group was made up of occasional users smoking at most 1 joint/week. However, to date, these cutoffs have not been adequately assessed under real conditions. Their validity can now be evaluated and confirmed with 146 traffic offenders' real cases in which the whole blood cannabinoid concentrations and the frequency of cannabis use are known. The two thresholds were not challenged by the presence of ethanol (40% of cases) and of other therapeutic and illegal drugs (24%). Thus, we propose the following procedure that can be very useful in the Swiss context but also in other countries with similar traffic policies: if the whole blood THCCOOH concentration is higher than 40μg/L, traffic offenders must be directed first and foremost toward medical assessment of their fitness to drive. This evaluation is not recommended if the THCCOOH concentration is lower than 3μg/L and if the self-rated frequency of cannabis use is less than 1 time/week. A THCCOOH level between these two thresholds cannot be reliably interpreted. In such a case, further medical assessment and follow-up of the fitness to drive are also suggested, but with lower priority.

Please die during office hours : periodicity of cardiovascular events in switzerland between 1969 and 2007

Purpose: to evaluate and compare the periodical patterns of death from cardiovascular disease (CVD), including acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in the Swiss population between the years 1969 and 2007.¦Methods: Swiss mortality database for the period of 1969- 2007 (2'362'430 deaths overall). The number of deaths due to CVD, AMI and stroke according to the time of day, day of the week and month were assessed, overall and after dividing the events according to gender and age (< 65 or ≥65 years old).¦Results: In general and for all four subgroups according to age and sex, there is a daily variation in the number of deaths with a first peak in the morning (8h00 -12h00) and a smaller second peak in the late afternoon (14h - 18h). Both males and females have similar hourly patterns, although the magnitude of the difference diminishes in older patients particularly for people who die from stroke. For the weekly variation, there seems to be a significant trend only in the younger population with the lowest mortality rates on Sunday and the highest on Mondays for all diseases. When it comes to seasonal variation according to month, the trend is more significant in the elder patients with the highest death rates during the winter months (+31%) and the lowest in the summer (July/August).¦Conclusion: There is a timely pattern for CVD, AMI and stroke deaths in Switzerland. This pattern changes according to the age and sex of the patients. Knowing this trend, its triggering factors and consequences, perhaps there could be measures put in place to prevent, diagnose and treat the population which is the most vulnerable at certain times.

No healthy heart for heavy drinkers: a population-based study in Switzerland

Background: Low to moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with lower coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, an effect mainly mediated by an increase in HDL-cholesterol levels. However, data on the CHD risk associated with high alcohol consumption are conflicting. Methods: In a population-based study of 5,769 men and women, aged 35-75 years, without cardiovascular disease in Switzerland, last week alcohol consumption was categorized into 0, 1-6, 7-13, 14-20, 21-27, 28-34, 035 drinks/week and into nondrinkers (0 drink/week), moderate (1-13), high (14-34) and very high drinkers (035). Blood pressure, lipids and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were measured, and the 10-year CHD risk was calculated according to the Framingham risk score. Results: 73% (n = 4,214) of the participants consumed alcohol; 16% (n = 909) were considered as high drinkers and 2% (n = 119) as very high drinkers. In multivariate analysis, increasing alcohol consumption was associated with higher HDL-cholesterol (from 1.57 ± 0.01 [adjusted mean ± SE] in nondrinkers to 1.88 ± 0.03 mmol/L in very high drinkers); triglycerides (1.17 ± 1.01 to 1.32 ± 1.05 mmol/L), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure rose significantly (127.4 ± 0.4 to 132.2 ± 1.4 and 78.7 ± 0.3 to 81.7 ± 0.9 mm Hg, respectively, all p for trend <0.001). Predicted 10-year CHD risk increased from 4.31 ± 0.10 to 4.90 ± 0.37 (p = 0.03) with increasing alcohol use, with a J-shaped relationship. Conclusion: As measured by the 10-year CHD risk, the protective effect of alcohol consumption disappears in very high drinkers, namely because the beneficial increase in HDL-cholesterol may be blunt by a rise in blood pressure levels.

3D geoelectrical monitoring to follow hydric soil behaviour during rainfall

RESUME Durant les dernières années, les méthodes électriques ont souvent été utilisées pour l'investigation des structures de subsurface. L'imagerie électrique (Electrical Resistivity Tomography, ERT) est une technique de prospection non-invasive et spatialement intégrée. La méthode ERT a subi des améliorations significatives avec le développement de nouveaux algorithmes d'inversion et le perfectionnement des techniques d'acquisition. La technologie multicanale et les ordinateurs de dernière génération permettent la collecte et le traitement de données en quelques heures. Les domaines d'application sont nombreux et divers: géologie et hydrogéologie, génie civil et géotechnique, archéologie et études environnementales. En particulier, les méthodes électriques sont souvent employées dans l'étude hydrologique de la zone vadose. Le but de ce travail est le développement d'un système de monitorage 3D automatique, non- invasif, fiable, peu coûteux, basé sur une technique multicanale et approprié pour suivre les variations de résistivité électrique dans le sous-sol lors d'événements pluvieux. En raison des limitations techniques et afin d'éviter toute perturbation physique dans la subsurface, ce dispositif de mesure emploie une installation non-conventionnelle, où toutes les électrodes de courant sont placées au bord de la zone d'étude. Le dispositif le plus approprié pour suivre les variations verticales et latérales de la résistivité électrique à partir d'une installation permanente a été choisi à l'aide de modélisations numériques. Les résultats démontrent que le dispositif pôle-dipôle offre une meilleure résolution que le dispositif pôle-pôle et plus apte à détecter les variations latérales et verticales de la résistivité électrique, et cela malgré la configuration non-conventionnelle des électrodes. Pour tester l'efficacité du système proposé, des données de terrain ont été collectées sur un site d'étude expérimental. La technique de monitorage utilisée permet de suivre le processus d'infiltration 3D pendant des événements pluvieux. Une bonne corrélation est observée entre les résultats de modélisation numérique et les données de terrain, confirmant par ailleurs que le dispositif pôle-dipôle offre une meilleure résolution que le dispositif pôle-pôle. La nouvelle technique de monitorage 3D de résistivité électrique permet de caractériser les zones d'écoulement préférentiel et de caractériser le rôle de la lithologie et de la pédologie de manière quantitative dans les processus hydrologiques responsables d'écoulement de crue. ABSTRACT During the last years, electrical methods were often used for the investigation of subsurface structures. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) has been reported to be a useful non-invasive and spatially integrative prospecting technique. The ERT method provides significant improvements, with the developments of new inversion algorithms, and the increasing efficiency of data collection techniques. Multichannel technology and powerful computers allow collecting and processing resistivity data within few hours. Application domains are numerous and varied: geology and hydrogeology, civil engineering and geotechnics, archaeology and environmental studies. In particular, electrical methods are commonly used in hydrological studies of the vadose zone. The aim of this study was to develop a multichannel, automatic, non-invasive, reliable and inexpensive 3D monitoring system designed to follow electrical resistivity variations in soil during rainfall. Because of technical limitations and in order to not disturb the subsurface, the proposed measurement device uses a non-conventional electrode set-up, where all the current electrodes are located near the edges of the survey grid. Using numerical modelling, the most appropriate arrays were selected to detect vertical and lateral variations of the electrical resistivity in the framework of a permanent surveying installation system. The results show that a pole-dipole array has a better resolution than a pole-pole array and can successfully follow vertical and lateral resistivity variations despite the non-conventional electrode configuration used. Field data are then collected at a test site to assess the efficiency of the proposed monitoring technique. The system allows following the 3D infiltration processes during a rainfall event. A good correlation between the results of numerical modelling and field data results can be observed since the field pole-dipole data give a better resolution image than the pole-pole data. The new device and technique makes it possible to better characterize the zones of preferential flow and to quantify the role of lithology and pedology in flood- generating hydrological processes.

Reduced quality of life associated adverse events in intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with PRECISION TACE with drug eluting beads: Results from the PRECISION V randomized trial : B-241

Purpose: To evaluate the extent of quality of life (QoL) associated adverse events (AEs) following PRECISION TACE with DC Bead compared with conventional transarterial chemoembolisation (cTACE). Methods and Materials: 201 intermediate HCC patients were treated with DC Bead (PRECISION TACE) or conventional TACE (cTACE) with doxorubicin in the PRECISION V clinical study. 93 patients were treated with DC Bead and 108 Patients with cTACE every 2 months and followed up for 6 months. AEs were classified according to the South West Oncology Group criteria. QoL associated AEs were defined as alopecia, constipation, nausea, vomiting, pyrexia, chills, asthenia, fatigue, and headache. Results: The biggest difference in QoL associated AEs was for alopecia: 2 patients (2.2%) for DC-Bead versus 21 patients (19.4%) for cTACE. For other clinical symptoms, constipation (n=10; 10.8% vs. n=13; 12%), vomiting (n=10; 10.8% vs. n=14; 13.0%), pyrexia (n=16; 17.2% vs. n=26; 24.1%), chills (n=1; 1.1% vs. n=5; 4.6%), and headache (n=2; 2.2% vs. n=8; 7.4%) showed lower incidence in the DC Bead group versus cTACE. Nausea, n= 15; 13.9% (n=15; 16.1%) and fatigue, n=6; 5.6% (n=13; 14.0%) were lower for cTACE. Total dose of doxorubicin was on average 35% higher in the DC Bead group. Conclusion: Although patients in the DC Bead group received a higher doxorubicin dose, less QoL associated AEs were reported for this group. Alopecia, the most obvious outward sign of toxicity, was only reported in a tenth of DC Bead patients. Thus, PRECISION TACE with DC Bead improves quality of life associated adverse events.

The impact of past direct-personal traumatic events on 12-month outcome in first episode psychotic mania: trauma and early psychotic mania.

OBJECTIVE: Past traumatic events have been associated with poorer clinical outcomes in people with bipolar disorder. However, the impact of these events in the early stages of the illness remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether prior traumatic events were related to poorer outcomes 12 months following a first episode of psychotic mania. METHODS: Traumatic events were retrospectively evaluated from patient files in a sample of 65 participants who had experienced first episode psychotic mania. Participants were aged between 15 and 28 years and were treated at a specialised early psychosis service. Clinical outcomes were measured by a variety of symptomatic and functioning scales at the 12-month time-point. RESULTS: Direct-personal traumatic experiences prior to the onset of psychotic mania were reported by 48% of the sample. Participants with past direct-personal trauma had significantly higher symptoms of mania (p=0.02), depression (p=0.03) and psychopathology (p=0.01) 12 months following their first episode compared to participants without past direct-personal trauma, with medium to large effects observed. After adjusting for baseline scores, differences in global functioning (as measured by the Global Assessment of Functioning scale) were non-significant (p=0.05); however, participants with past direct-personal trauma had significantly poorer social and occupational functioning (p=0.04) at the 12-month assessment with medium effect. CONCLUSIONS: Past direct-personal trauma may predict poorer symptomatic and functional outcomes after first episode psychotic mania. Limitations include that the findings represent individuals treated at a specialist early intervention centre for youth and the retrospective assessment of traumatic events may have been underestimated.