Analyse des risques d'extinction des populations naturelles

A review of extinction risk analysis and viability methods is presented. The importance of environmental, demographic and genetic uncertainties, as well as the role of catastrophes are successively considered, and different approaches aiming at the integration of these risk factors in predictive population dynamic models are discussed.

Une IgA à coefficient de sédimentation 11 S dans les sécrétions externes de l'espèce bovine

The sedimentation coefficient of a secretory IgA found in bovine colostrum and saliva is compared with that of IgG and IgM from the same colostrum. The IgA fraction gives a value of 10.8 S, whereas the major part of the IgG has a value of 7.1 S and the IgM 19.2 S. The sedimentation coefficient of the free secretory piece has also been determined: its value is 4.95 S.

Correlating the end-Triassic mass extinction and flood basalt volcanism at the 100 ka level

New high-precision U/Pb geochronology from volcanic ashes shows that the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and end-Triassic biological crisis from two independent marine stratigraphic sections correlate with the onset of terrestrial flood volcanism in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province to <150 ka. This narrows the correlation between volcanism and mass extinction by an order of magnitude for any such catastrophe in Earth history. We also show that a concomitant drop and rise in sea level and negative delta C-13 spike in the very latest Triassic occurred locally in <290 ka. Such rapid sea-level fluctuations on a global scale require that global cooling and glaciation were closely associated with the end-Triassic extinction and potentially driven by Central Atlantic Magmatic Province volcanism.

Variabilité intra/interobservateur du coefficient de diffusion apparente dans les lésions hépatiques malignes traitées

Objectifs : Le coefficient de diffusion apparente (ADC) est utilisé pour le suivi des lésions hépatiques malignes traitées. Cependant, l'ADC est généralement mesuré dans la lésion entière, alors que cela devrait être réalisé dans la zone la plus restreinte (ZLPR), cette dernière représentant potentiellement du résidu tumoral. Notre objectif était d'évaluer la variabilité inter/intraobservateur de l'ADC dans la tumeur entière et dans la ZLPR. Matériels et méthodes : Quarante patients traités par chimioembolisation ou radiofréquence ont été évalués. Après consensus, deux lecteurs ont indépendamment mesuré l'ADC de la lésion entière et de la ZLPR. Les mêmes mesures ont été répétées deux semaines plus tard. Le test de Spearman et la méthode de Bland-Altman ont été utilisées. Résultats : La corrélation interobservateur de l'ADC dans la lésion entière et dans la ZLPR était de 0,962 et de 0,884. La corrélation intraobservateur était de 0,992 et de 0,979, respectivement. Les limites de variabilité interobservateur (mm2/sec*10 - 3) étaient entre -0,25/+0,28 dans la lésion entière et entre -0,51/+0,46 dans la ZLPR. Les limites de variabilité intraobservateur étaient respectivement : -0,25/+0,24 et -0,43/+0,47. Conclusion : La corrélation inter/intraobservateur dans les mesures d'ADC est bonne. Toutefois, une variabilité limitée existe et doit être considérée lors de l'interprétation des valeurs d'ADC des tumeurs hépatiques.

Range expansion of the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula in Switzerland results in local extinction of the bicoloured white-toothed shrew C-leucodon

The distribution limits of Crocidura russula (Hermann, 1780) and C. leucodon (Hermann, 1780) were investigated during an interval of 25 years in the bottom of the Rhone valley above Lake Geneva, Switzerland (total data set: 105 spatio-temporal occurrences, 1137 shrews). In 1975, the contact zone between the two species was situated in the region of Martigny. In 1999/2000, new sampling revealed three results: (1) The contact zone showed an upward shift of about 25 km. (2) In the expanded range of C. russula, the resident species has totally disappeared (confirmed by owl pellets analysis). (3) This demonstrates a dominance of C, russula over C. leucodon. Three hypotheses which may explain the range expansion of C. russula were evaluated: (1) habitat modification favouring linear dispersal due to the construction of a highway; (2) temporal event favoured by climate fluctuations, or (3) ongoing postglacial colonisation of Europe. Hypothesis 1 was rejected, because the progression of the shrews anticipated the construction. Hypothesis 3 received only weak support because range limits of C. russula in the region of Nice have been stable for thousands of years. Therefore hypothesis 2, admitting that ongoing climate change has facilitated range expansion, is the most probable.

Interobserver and intraobserver variability of the apparent diffusion coefficient in treated malignant hepatic lesions on a 3.0T machine: measurements in the whole lesion versus in the area with the most restricted diffusion.

PURPOSE: To assess the inter/intraobserver variability of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) measurements in treated hepatic lesions and to compare ADC measurements in the whole lesion and in the area with the most restricted diffusion (MRDA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-five patients with treated malignant liver lesions were examined on a 3.0T machine. After agreeing on the best ADC image, two readers independently measured the ADC values in the whole lesion and in the MRDA. These measurements were repeated 1 month later. The Bland-Altman method, Spearman correlation coefficients, and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used to evaluate the measurements. RESULTS: Interobserver variability for ADC measurements in the whole lesion and in the MRDA was 0.17 x 10(-3) mm(2)/s [-0.17, +0.17] and 0.43 x 10(-3) mm(2)/s [-0.45, +0.41], respectively. Intraobserver limits of agreement could be as low as [-0.10, +0.12] 10(-3) mm(2)/s and [-0.20, +0.33] 10(-3) mm(2)/s for measurements in the whole lesion and in the MRDA, respectively. CONCLUSION: A limited variability in ADC measurements does exist, and it should be considered when interpreting ADC values of hepatic malignancies. This is especially true for the measurements of the minimal ADC.

On metapopulation resistance to drift and extinction.

The spatial configuration of metapopulations (numbers, sizes, and localization of patches) affects their ability to resist demographic extinction and genetic drift, but sometimes with opposite effects. Small and isolated patches, for instance, contribute marginally to demography but may play a large role in genetics by maintaining a sizeable amount of genetic variance among demes. In source-sink systems, similarly, connectivity may be beneficial in terms of effective size, but detrimental in terms of survival, by lowering the reproductive value of source populations. How to reconcile these opposite effects? Here we propose an analytical framework that integrates fixation time (ability to resist genetic drift) and extinction time (ability to resist demographic extinction) into a single index of resistance, measuring the ability of a metapopulation to maintain its demo-genetic integrity. We then illustrate with numerical examples how conflicting demands may be resolved.

Sex differences in the neurobiology of fear conditioning and extinction: a preliminary fMRI study of shared sex differences with stress-arousal circuitry.

BACKGROUND: The amygdala, hippocampus, medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and brain-stem subregions are implicated in fear conditioning and extinction, and are brain regions known to be sexually dimorphic. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate sex differences in brain activity in these regions during fear conditioning and extinction. METHODS: Subjects were 12 healthy men comparable to 12 healthy women who underwent a 2-day experiment in a 3 T MR scanner. Fear conditioning and extinction learning occurred on day 1 and extinction recall occurred on day 2. The conditioned stimuli were visual cues and the unconditioned stimulus was a mild electric shock. Skin conductance responses (SCR) were recorded throughout the experiment as an index of the conditioned response. fMRI data (blood-oxygen-level-dependent [BOLD] signal changes) were analyzed using SPM8. RESULTS: Findings showed no significant sex differences in SCR during any experimental phases. However, during fear conditioning, there were significantly greater BOLD-signal changes in the right amygdala, right rostral anterior cingulate (rACC) and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) in women compared with men. In contrast, men showed significantly greater signal changes in bilateral rACC during extinction recall. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate sex differences in brain activation within the fear circuitry of healthy subjects despite similar peripheral autonomic responses. Furthermore, we found that regions where sex differences were previously reported in response to stress, also exhibited sex differences during fear conditioning and extinction.

Shrews in suburbia: an application of Goodman's extinction model

An equation is applied for calculating the expected persistence time of an unstructured population of the white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula from Preverenges, a suburban area in western Switzerland. Population abundance data from March and November between 1977 and 1988 were fit to the logistic density dependence model to estimate mean population growth rate as a function of population density. The variance in mean growth rate was approximated with two different models. The largest estimated persistence time was less than a few decades, the smallest less than 10 years. The results are sensitive to the magnitude of variance in population growth rate. Deviations from the logistic density dependence model in November are quite well explained by weather variables but those in March are uncorrelated with weather variables. Variability in population growth rates measured in winter months may be better explained by behavioural mechanisms. Environmental variability, dispersal of juveniles and refugia within the range of the population may contribute to its long-term survival.

PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth-death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

iLOGP: A Simple, Robust, and Efficient Description of n-Octanol/Water Partition Coefficient for Drug Design Using the GB/SA Approach.

The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.