Contracts, Reference Points, and Competition - Behavioral Effects of the Fundamental Transformation

In this paper we study the role of incomplete ex ante contracts for ex post trade. Previous experimental evidence indicates that a contract provides a reference point for entitlements when the terms are negotiated in a competitive market. We show that this finding no longer holds when the terms are determined in a non-competitive way. Our results imply that the presence of a "fundamental transformation" (i.e., the transition from a competitive market to a bilateral relationship) is important for a contract to become a reference point. To the best of our knowledge this behavioral aspect of the fundamental transformation has not been shown before.

Can fisheries-induced evolution shift reference points for fisheries management?

Biological reference points are important tools for fisheries management. Reference points are not static, but may change when a population's environment or the population itself changes. Fisheries-induced evolution is one mechanism that can alter population characteristics, leading to "shifting" reference points by modifying the underlying biological processes or by changing the perception of a fishery system. The former causes changes in "true" reference points, whereas the latter is caused by changes in the yardsticks used to quantify a system's status. Unaccounted shifts of either kind imply that reference points gradually lose their intended meaning. This can lead to increased precaution, which is safe, but potentially costly. Shifts can also occur in more perilous directions, such that actual risks are greater than anticipated. Our qualitative analysis suggests that all commonly used reference points are susceptible to shifting through fisheries-induced evolution, including the limit and "precautionary" reference points for spawning-stock biomass, Blim and Bpa, and the target reference point for fishing mortality, F0.1. Our findings call for increased awareness of fisheries-induced changes and highlight the value of always basing reference points on adequately updated information, to capture all changes in the biological processes that drive fish population dynamics.

Representational pseudoneglect and reference points both influence geographic location estimates

Our mental representation of the world is far from objective. For example, western Canadians estimate the locations of North American cities to be too far to the west. This bias could be due to a reference point effect, in which people estimate more space between places close to them than far from them, or to representational pseudoneglect, in which neurologically intact individuals favor the left side of space when asked to image a scene.We tested whether either or both of these biases influence the geographic world representations of neurologically intact young adults from Edmonton and Ottawa, which are in western and eastern Canada, respectively. Individuals were asked to locate NorthAmerican cities on a two-dimensional grid. Both groups revealed effects of representational pseudoneglect in this novel paradigm, but they also each exhibited reference point effects. These results inform theories in both cognitive psychology and neuroscience.

Three essays in behavioral and experimental economics

The present PhD dissertation consists of three papers, organized in chapters, in the field of behavioral economics. This discipline studies economic behavior of individuals subject to limitations, such as bounded self-interest and bounded willpower. The behavior studied in the present thesis ranges from the complex decision to register as an organ donor, decision¬making in the presence of uncertainty and the decision to give money to a charitable organization. The first chapter aims at testing the effectiveness of an active-decision (AD) mechanism on the decision to become an organ donor in Switzerland, using field experiments. We found that stimulating participants' reflection on the topic of organ donation had a negative effect on the decision to become an organ donor. Moreover, a non-binding commitment nudge reduces putting off the decision, but does not lead to donation rates higher than in the control group. The results suggest that AD may be far more limited than previously thought and raise doubts about the efficacy of engaging potential donors to reflect on the topic of organ donation. Beyond carrying for others, behavioral economics also recognizes that individuals do not evaluate outcomes in absolute terms but rather by comparing them to some reference levels, called reference points. Above the reference points, economic outcomes are perceived as gains, while below these levels the same outcomes are felt as losses. The last two chapters analyze the importance of reference points in the evaluation of economic outcomes. Using a laboratory experiment where subjects played two consecutive lotteries, Chapter 2 studies the speed of adjustment of the reference point. We find that varying the probability of winning the first lottery has no effect on subjects' risk behavior regarding the second lottery. This result indicates a very fast adjustment of the reference point to the latest information. Chapter 3 investigates whether reference points are relevant for charitable preferences. Using actual donation decisions of participants in a laboratory experiment, the results suggest that reference points are not crucial for shaping charitable giving. -- Cette thèse de doctorat consiste en trois articles, organisés en chapitres, dans le domaine de l'économie comportementale. Cette discipline étudie le comportement d'agents économiques sujets à des limitations, telles qu'un égoïsme limité et une volonté limitée. Le comportement étudié dans cette thèse va de la décision complexe de devenir donneur d'organes, la prise de décision en présence d'incertitude à la décision de donner de l'argent à une oeuvre caritative. Le premier chapitre vise à tester l'efficacité d'un mécanisme de « décision active » (active decision, AD) sur la décision de devenir donneur d'organes en Suisse, et ce en recourant à deux expériences hors-laboratoire. Les résultats montrent que stimuler la réflexion des participants sur le don d'organes a un effet négatif sur la décision de devenir donneur. De plus, un mécanisme qui encourage les participants à prendre une décision sur le champ réduit la tendance à procrastiner, mais ne mène pas à un taux de donneurs plus élevé par rapport à un groupe de contrôle. Les résultats suggèrent que le mécanisme AD est bien plus limité que ce qui a été supposé jusqu'à maintenant. De plus, ils suscitent le doute quant à l'efficacité de stimuler la réflexion de potentiels donneurs sur le sujet du don d'organes. En plus de se soucier des autres, l'économie comportementale admet également que les individus n'évaluent pas les résultats de façon absolue, mais en comparant ceux-ci à des niveaux de références, souvent appelés points de référence. Au-dessus de ces points de référence, les résultats sont perçus en tant que gains, tandis qu'en-dessous ces mêmes résultats sont considérés comme des pertes. Les deux derniers chapitres analysent l'importance des points de référence dans diverses situations. A l'aide d'une expérience en laboratoire dans laquelle les participants participent à deux loteries consécutives, le chapitre 2 étudie la vitesse d'ajustement du point de référence. Le résultat montre que varier la probabilité de gagner la première loterie n'a aucun effet sur le comportement en matière de risques concernant la deuxième loterie. Cela indique un ajustement très rapide du point de référence. Le chapitre 3 vise à déterminer si les points de référence ont un rôle majeur concernant les préférences caritatives. Les données relatives aux décisions de don des participants d'une expérience en laboratoire montrent que les points de référence n'influencent pas significativement le don caritatif.

Exporting Contours to DICOM-RT Structure Set

This paper presents an ITK implementation for exportingthe contours of the automated segmentation results toDICOM-RT Structure Set format. The âeurooeradiotherapystructure setâeuro (RTSTRUCT) object of the DICOM standard isused for the transfer of patient structures and relateddata, between the devices found within and outside theradiotherapy department. It mainly contains theinformation of regions of interest (ROIs) and points ofinterest (E.g. dose reference points). In many cases,rather than manually drawing these ROIs on the CT images,one can indeed benefit from the automated segmentationalgorithms already implemented in ITK. But at present, itis not possible to export the ROIs obtained from ITK toRTSTRUCT format. In order to bridge this gap, we havedeveloped a framework for exporting contour data toRTSTRUCT. We provide here the complete implementation ofRTSTRUCT exporter and present the details of the pipelineused. Results on a 3-D CT image of the Head and Neck(H&N) region are presented.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Heritability, determinants and reference values of renal length: a family-based population study.

OBJECTIVES: In this population-based study, reference values were generated for renal length, and the heritability and factors associated with kidney length were assessed. METHODS: Anthropometric parameters and renal ultrasound measurements were assessed in randomly selected nuclear families of European ancestry (Switzerland). The adjusted narrow sense heritability of kidney size parameters was estimated by maximum likelihood assuming multivariate normality after power transformation. Gender-specific reference centiles were generated for renal length according to body height in the subset of non-diabetic non-obese participants with normal renal function. RESULTS: We included 374 men and 419 women (mean ± SD, age 47 ± 18 and 48 ± 17 years, BMI 26.2 ± 4 and 24.5 ± 5 kg/m(2), respectively) from 205 families. Renal length was 11.4 ± 0.8 cm in men and 10.7 ± 0.8 cm in women; there was no difference between right and left renal length. Body height, weight and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were positively associated with renal length, kidney function negatively, age quadratically, whereas gender and hypertension were not. The adjusted heritability estimates of renal length and volume were 47.3 ± 8.5 % and 45.5 ± 8.8 %, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The significant heritability of renal length and volume highlights the familial aggregation of this trait, independently of age and body size. Population-based references for renal length provide a useful guide for clinicians. KEY POINTS: • Renal length and volume are heritable traits, independent of age and size. • Based on a European population, gender-specific reference values/percentiles are provided for renal length. • Renal length correlates positively with body length and weight. • There was no difference between right and left renal lengths in this study. • This negates general teaching that the left kidney is larger and longer.

Manufacturing and characterization of a recombinant adeno-associated virus type 8 reference standard material.

Gene therapy approaches using recombinant adeno-associated virus serotype 2 (rAAV2) and serotype 8 (rAAV8) have achieved significant clinical benefits. The generation of rAAV Reference Standard Materials (RSM) is key to providing points of reference for particle titer, vector genome titer, and infectious titer for gene transfer vectors. Following the example of the rAAV2RSM, here we have generated and characterized a novel RSM based on rAAV serotype 8. The rAAV8RSM was produced using transient transfection, and the purification was based on density gradient ultracentrifugation. The rAAV8RSM was distributed for characterization along with standard assay protocols to 16 laboratories worldwide. Mean titers and 95% confidence intervals were determined for capsid particles (mean, 5.50×10(11) pt/ml; CI, 4.26×10(11) to 6.75×10(11) pt/ml), vector genomes (mean, 5.75×10(11) vg/ml; CI, 3.05×10(11) to 1.09×10(12) vg/ml), and infectious units (mean, 1.26×10(9) IU/ml; CI, 6.46×10(8) to 2.51×10(9) IU/ml). Notably, there was a significant degree of variation between institutions for each assay despite the relatively tight correlation of assay results within an institution. This outcome emphasizes the need to use RSMs to calibrate the titers of rAAV vectors in preclinical and clinical studies at a time when the field is maturing rapidly. The rAAV8RSM has been deposited at the American Type Culture Collection (VR-1816) and is available to the scientific community.

Monitoring natural hazards

Few subjects have caught the attention of the entire world as much as those dealing with natural hazards. The first decade of this new millennium provides a litany of tragic examples of various hazards that turned into disasters affecting millions of individuals around the globe. The human losses (some 225,000 people) associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the economic costs (approximately 200 billion USD) of the 2011 Tohoku Japan earthquake, tsunami and reactor event, and the collective social impacts of human tragedies experienced during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 all provide repetitive reminders that we humans are temporary guests occupying a very active and angry planet. Any examples may have been cited here to stress the point that natural events on Earth may, and often do, lead to disasters and catastrophes when humans place themselves into situations of high risk. Few subjects share the true interdisciplinary dependency that characterizes the field of natural hazards. From geology and geophysics to engineering and emergency response to social psychology and economics, the study of natural hazards draws input from an impressive suite of unique and previously independent specializations. Natural hazards provide a common platform to reduce disciplinary boundaries and facilitate a beneficial synergy in the provision of timely and useful information and action on this critical subject matter. As social norms change regarding the concept of acceptable risk and human migration leads to an explosion in the number of megacities, coastal over-crowding and unmanaged habitation in precarious environments such as mountainous slopes, the vulnerability of people and their susceptibility to natural hazards increases dramatically. Coupled with the concerns of changing climates, escalating recovery costs, a growing divergence between more developed and less developed countries, the subject of natural hazards remains on the forefront of issues that affect all people, nations, and environments all the time.This treatise provides a compendium of critical, timely and very detailed information and essential facts regarding the basic attributes of natural hazards and concomitant disasters. The Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards effectively captures and integrates contributions from an international portfolio of almost 300 specialists whose range of expertise addresses over 330 topics pertinent to the field of natural hazards. Disciplinary barriers are overcome in this comprehensive treatment of the subject matter. Clear illustrations and numerous color images enhance the primary aim to communicate and educate. The inclusion of a series of unique ?classic case study? events interspersed throughout the volume provides tangible examples linking concepts, issues, outcomes and solutions. These case studies illustrate different but notable recent, historic and prehistoric events that have shaped the world as we now know it. They provide excellent focal points linking the remaining terms in the volume to the primary field of study. This Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards will remain a standard reference of choice for many years.

Comparative socio-economic evaluation of IBD patients with and without infliximab maintenance therapy

Background: The anti-TNFα agent Infliximab (IFX) is used for the treatment of moderate to severe inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with insufficient response to conventional immunomodulator therapy. IFX maintenance therapy is expensive and it is unknown if indirect costs (eg. by loss of work productivity) can be reduced by this therapy. Goal: to evaluate the direct and indirect costs of an IBD patient cohort under maintenance IFX compared to a cohort under "conventional" immunomodulator therapy. Methods: Direct and indirect costs of an IBD cohort under IFX and a reference cohort (similar disease activity and location) under conventional immunomodulator therapy (Azathioprine, or 6-MP, or MTX) were retrospectively evaluated over 12 months (January to December 2008). Results: 54 IFX-patients (24f/30m, 37 CD, 10 UC, 7 IC) and 71 non-IFX-patients (38f/33m, 56 CD, 12 UC, 3 IC) were included. IFX patients were younger than non-IFX patients (36 vs. 47 years, P = 0.0003). The mean duration of inpatient stay in hospital (23 in IFX vs. 21 days for non-IFX, P = 0.909) and the hospitalization costs (7,692 in IFX vs. 4,179 SFr for non-IFX, P = 0.4540) did not differ. IFX-patients had significantly more frequently specialist outpatient consultations (8 vs. 4, P < 0.001) and outpatient-related costs (3,633 vs. 2,186 SFr, P <0.001). Total costs for all diagnostic procedures (blood work, endoscopies, radiology) were higher in the IFXcohort (2,265 vs. 1,164 SFr, P < 0.001). Sixty-five percent of IFX-patients had a 100% job employment compared to 80% in the non-IFX cohort (P = 0.001). Conclusions: The direct and indirect costs of maintenance IFX-treated IBD patients are higher compared to IBD patients under conventional immunomodulators. Care should be taken not only to judge the costs as the IFX treated population may represent a cohort with more aggressive disease phenotype, furthermore, quality of life aspects were not assessed.

Integrated Ladinian bio-chronostratigraphy and geochrononology of Monte San Giorgio (Southern Alps, Switzerland)

New biostratigraphic data significantly improve the age assignment of the Ladinian succession of Monte San Giorgio (UNESCO World Heritage List site, Southern Alps, Switzerland), whose world-famous fossil marine vertebrate faunas are now dated to the substage and zone levels. High-resolution single-zircon U-Pb dating was performed using ID-TIMS and chemical abrasion (CA) pre-treatment technique on volcanic ash layers intercalated in the biostratigraphically-defined intervals of the Meride Limestone. It yielded ages of 241.07 +/- 0.13 Ma (Cava superiore beds, P. gredleri Zone), 240.63 +/- 0.13 Ma (Cassina beds, P gredleri/P. archelaus transition Zone) and 239.51 +/- 0.15 Ma (Lower Kalkschieferzone, P. archelaus Zone). Our results suggest that the time interval including the vertebrate-bearing Middle Triassic section spans around 4 Myr and is thus significantly shorter than so far assumed. The San Giorgio Dolomite and the Meride Limestone correlate with intervals of the Buchenstein Formation and the Wengen Formation in the reference section at Bagolino, where the Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the base of the Ladinian was defined. The new radio-isotopic ages of the Meride Limestone are up to 2 Myr older than those published for the biostratigraphically-equivalent intervals at Bagolino but they are consistent with the recent re-dating of the underlying Besano Formation, also performed using the CA technique. Average sedimentation rates at Monte San Giorgio are by more than an order of magnitude higher compared to those assumed for the Buchenstein Formation, which formed under sediment-starved pelagic conditions, and reflect prevailing high subsidence and high carbonate mud supply from the adjoining Salvatore/Esino platforms. Finally, the high-resolution U-Pb ages allow a correlation of the vertebrate faunas of the Cava superiore/Cava inferiore beds with the marine vertebrate record of the Prosanto Formation (Upper Austroalpine), so far precluded by the poor biostratigraphic control of the latter.

Points to consider for prioritizing clinical genetic testing services: a European consensus process oriented at accountability for reasonableness.

Given the cost constraints of the European health-care systems, criteria are needed to decide which genetic services to fund from the public budgets, if not all can be covered. To ensure that high-priority services are available equitably within and across the European countries, a shared set of prioritization criteria would be desirable. A decision process following the accountability for reasonableness framework was undertaken, including a multidisciplinary EuroGentest/PPPC-ESHG workshop to develop shared prioritization criteria. Resources are currently too limited to fund all the beneficial genetic testing services available in the next decade. Ethically and economically reflected prioritization criteria are needed. Prioritization should be based on considerations of medical benefit, health need and costs. Medical benefit includes evidence of benefit in terms of clinical benefit, benefit of information for important life decisions, benefit for other people apart from the person tested and the patient-specific likelihood of being affected by the condition tested for. It may be subject to a finite time window. Health need includes the severity of the condition tested for and its progression at the time of testing. Further discussion and better evidence is needed before clearly defined recommendations can be made or a prioritization algorithm proposed. To our knowledge, this is the first time a clinical society has initiated a decision process about health-care prioritization on a European level, following the principles of accountability for reasonableness. We provide points to consider to stimulate this debate across the EU and to serve as a reference for improving patient management.

Estimation of reference curves for the urinary steroid metabolome in the first year of life in healthy children : Tracing the complexity of human postnatal steroidogenesis.

CONTEXT: Complex steroid disorders such as P450 oxidoreductase deficiency or apparent cortisone reductase deficiency may be recognized by steroid profiling using chromatographic mass spectrometric methods. These methods are highly specific and sensitive, and provide a complete spectrum of steroid metabolites in a single measurement of one sample which makes them superior to immunoassays. The steroid metabolome during the fetal-neonatal transition is characterized by (a) the metabolites of the fetal-placental unit at birth, (b) the fetal adrenal androgens until its involution 3-6 months postnatally, and (c) the steroid metabolites produced by the developing endocrine organs. All these developmental events change the steroid metabolome in an age- and sex-dependent manner during the first year of life. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to provide normative values for the urinary steroid metabolome of healthy newborns at short time intervals in the first year of life. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study to measure 67 urinary steroid metabolites in 21 male and 22 female term healthy newborn infants at 13 time-points from week 1 to week 49 of life. Urine samples were collected from newborn infants before discharge from hospital and from healthy infants at home. Steroid metabolites were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and steroid concentrations corrected for urinary creatinine excretion were calculated. RESULTS: 61 steroids showed age and 15 steroids sex specificity. Highest urinary steroid concentrations were found in both sexes for progesterone derivatives, in particular 20α-DH-5α-DH-progesterone, and for highly polar 6α-hydroxylated glucocorticoids. The steroids peaked at week 3 and decreased by ∼80% at week 25 in both sexes. The decline of progestins, androgens and estrogens was more pronounced than of glucocorticoids whereas the excretion of corticosterone and its metabolites and of mineralocorticoids remained constant during the first year of life. CONCLUSION: The urinary steroid profile changes dramatically during the first year of life and correlates with the physiologic developmental changes during the fetal-neonatal transition. Thus detailed normative data during this time period permit the use of steroid profiling as a powerful diagnostic tool.