Comparison of 2 frailty indexes for prediction of falls, disability, fractures, and death in older women.

BACKGROUND: Frailty, as defined by the index derived from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS index), predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older adults. Use of this index, however, is impractical in clinical practice. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in 6701 women 69 years or older to compare the predictive validity of a simple frailty index with the components of weight loss, inability to rise from a chair 5 times without using arms, and reduced energy level (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF index]) with that of the CHS index with the components of unintentional weight loss, poor grip strength, reduced energy level, slow walking speed, and low level of physical activity. Women were classified as robust, of intermediate status, or frail using each index. Falls were reported every 4 months for 1 year. Disability (> or =1 new impairment in performing instrumental activities of daily living) was ascertained at 4(1/2) years, and fractures and deaths were ascertained during 9 years of follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and -2 log likelihood statistics were compared for models containing the CHS index vs the SOF index. RESULTS: Increasing evidence of frailty as defined by either the CHS index or the SOF index was similarly associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Frail women had a higher age-adjusted risk of recurrent falls (odds ratio, 2.4), disability (odds ratio, 2.2-2.8), nonspine fracture (hazard ratio, 1.4-1.5), hip fracture (hazard ratio, 1.7-1.8), and death (hazard ratio, 2.4-2.7) (P < .001 for all models). The AUC comparisons revealed no differences between models with the CHS index vs the SOF index in discriminating falls (AUC = 0.61 for both models; P = .66), disability (AUC = 0.64; P = .23), nonspine fracture (AUC = 0.55; P = .80), hip fracture (AUC = 0.63; P = .64), or death (AUC = 0.72; P = .10). Results were similar when -2 log likelihood statistics were compared. CONCLUSION: The simple SOF index predicts risk of falls, disability, fracture, and death as well as the more complex CHS index and may provide a useful definition of frailty to identify older women at risk of adverse health outcomes in clinical practice.

Dispersal ability modulates the strength of the latitudinal richness gradient in European beetles.

Aim A debate exists as to whether present-day diversity gradients are governed by current environmental conditions or by changes in environmental conditions through time. Recent studies have shown that latitudinal richness gradients might be partially caused by incomplete post-glacial recolonization of high-latitude regions; this leads to the prediction that less mobile taxa should have steeper gradients than more mobile taxa. The aim of this study is to test this prediction. Location Europe. Methods We first assessed whether spatial turnover in species composition is a good surrogate for dispersal ability by measuring the proportion of wingless species in 19 European beetle clades and relating this value to spatial turnover (beta sim) of the clade. We then linearly regressed beta sim values of 21 taxa against the slope of their respective diversity gradients. Results A strong relationship exists between the proportion of wingless species and beta sim, and beta sim was found to be a good predictor of latitudinal richness gradients. Main conclusions Results are consistent with the prediction that poor dispersers have steeper richness gradients than good dispersers, supporting the view that current beetle diversity gradients in Europe are affected by post-glacial dispersal lags.

Addition of MR imaging features and genetic biomarkers strengthens glioblastoma survival prediction in TCGA patients.

PURPOSE: The purpose of our study was to assess whether a model combining clinical factors, MR imaging features, and genomics would better predict overall survival of patients with glioblastoma (GBM) than either individual data type. METHODS: The study was conducted leveraging The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) effort supported by the National Institutes of Health. Six neuroradiologists reviewed MRI images from The Cancer Imaging Archive (http://cancerimagingarchive.net) of 102 GBM patients using the VASARI scoring system. The patients' clinical and genetic data were obtained from the TCGA website (http://www.cancergenome.nih.gov/). Patient outcome was measured in terms of overall survival time. The association between different categories of biomarkers and survival was evaluated using Cox analysis. RESULTS: The features that were significantly associated with survival were: (1) clinical factors: chemotherapy; (2) imaging: proportion of tumor contrast enhancement on MRI; and (3) genomics: HRAS copy number variation. The combination of these three biomarkers resulted in an incremental increase in the strength of prediction of survival, with the model that included clinical, imaging, and genetic variables having the highest predictive accuracy (area under the curve 0.679±0.068, Akaike's information criterion 566.7, P<0.001). CONCLUSION: A combination of clinical factors, imaging features, and HRAS copy number variation best predicts survival of patients with GBM.

Risk prediction of prevalent diabetes in a Swiss population using a weighted genetic score--the CoLaus Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several susceptibility genes for type 2 diabetes have been discovered recently. Individually, these genes increase the disease risk only minimally. The goals of the present study were to determine, at the population level, the risk of diabetes in individuals who carry risk alleles within several susceptibility genes for the disease and the added value of this genetic information over the clinical predictors. METHODS: We constructed an additive genetic score using the most replicated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 15 type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes, weighting each SNP with its reported effect. We tested this score in the extensively phenotyped population-based cross-sectional CoLaus Study in Lausanne, Switzerland (n = 5,360), involving 356 diabetic individuals. RESULTS: The clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes were age, BMI, family history of diabetes, WHR, and triacylglycerol/HDL-cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for these variables, the risk of diabetes was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-4.0, p = 0.000006) for individuals with a genetic score within the top quintile, compared with the bottom quintile. Adding the genetic score to the clinical covariates improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve slightly (from 0.86 to 0.87), yet significantly (p = 0.002). BMI was similar in these two extreme quintiles. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this population, a simple weighted 15 SNP-based genetic score provides additional information over clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes. At this stage, however, the clinical benefit of this genetic information is limited.

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.

Patients' prediction of extubation success.

The spontaneous breathing trial (SBT)-relying on objective criteria assessed by the clinician-is the major diagnostic tool to determine if patients can be successfully extubated. However, little is known regarding the patient's subjective perception of autonomous breathing. We performed a prospective observational study in 211 mechanically ventilated adult patients successfully completing a SBT. Patients were randomly assigned to be interviewed during this trial regarding their prediction of extubation success. We compared post-extubation outcomes in three patient groups: patients confident (confidents; n = 115) or not (non-confidents; n = 38) of their extubation success and patients not subjected to interview (control group; n = 58). Extubation success was more frequent in confidents than in non-confidents (90 vs. 45%; p < 0.001/positive likelihood ratio = 2.00) or in the control group (90 vs. 78%; p = 0.04). On the contrary, extubation failure was more common in non-confidents than in confidents (55 vs. 10%; p < 0.001/negative likelihood ratio = 0.19). Logistic regression analysis showed that extubation success was associated with patient's prediction [OR (95% CI): 9.2 (3.74-22.42) for confidents vs.non-confidents] as well as to age [0.72 (0.66-0.78) for age 75 vs. 65 and 1.31 (1.28-1.51) for age 55 vs. 65]. Our data suggest that at the end of a sustained SBT, extubation success might be correlated to the patients' subjective perception of autonomous breathing. The results of this study should be confirmed by a large multicenter trial.

Identification of two steroid-responsive promoters of different strength controlled by the same estrogen-responsive element in the 5'-end region of the Xenopus laevis vitellogenin gene A1.

A structural and functional analysis of the 5'-end region of the Xenopus laevis vitellogenin gene A1 revealed two transcription initiation sites located 1.8 kilobases apart. A RNA polymerase II binding assay indicates that both promoters form initiation complexes efficiently. In vitro, using a transcription assay derived from a HeLa whole-cell extract, the upstream promoter is more than 10-fold stronger than the downstream one. In contrast, both promoters have a similar strength in a HeLa nuclear extract. In vivo, that is in estrogen-stimulated hepatocytes, it is the downstream promoter homologous to the one used by the other members of the vitellogenin gene family, which is 50-fold stronger than the upstream promoter. Thus, if functional vitellogenin mRNA results from this latter activity, it would contribute less than 1% to the synthesis of vitellogenin by fully induced Xenopus hepatocytes expressing the four vitellogenin genes. In contrast, both gene A1 promoters are silent in uninduced hepatocytes. Transfection experiments using the Xenopus cell line B3.2 in which estrogen-responsiveness has been introduced reveal that the strong downstream promoter is controlled by an estrogen responsive element (ERE) located 330 bp upstream of it. The upstream promoter can also be controlled by the same ERE. Since the region comprising the upstream promoter is flanked by a 200 base pair long inverted repeat with stretches of homology to other regions of the X. laevis genome, we speculate that it might have been inserted upstream of the vitellogenin gene A1 by a recombination event and consequently brought under control of the ERE lying 1.5 kilobases downstream.

Psychoses a l'adolescence, les neurosciences ameliorent-elles la prediction? [Adolescent psychosis, can neuroscience improve prediction?]

Developments in the field of neuroscience have created a high level of interest in the subject of adolescent psychosis, particularly in relation to prediction and prevention. As the medical practice of adolescent psychosis and its treatment is characterised by a heterogeneity which is both symptomatic and evolutive, the somewhat poor prognosis of chronic development justifies the research performed: apparent indicators of schizophrenic disorders on the one hand and specific endophenotypes on the other are becoming increasingly important. The significant progresses made on the human genome show that the genetic predetermination in current psychiatric pathologies is complex and subject to moderating effects and there is therefore significant potential for nature-nurture interactions (between the environment and the genes). The road to be followed in researching the phenotypic expression of a psychosis gene is long and winding and is susceptible to many external influences at various levels with different effects. Neurobiological, neurophysiological, neuropsychological and neuroanatomical studies help to identify endophenotypes, which allow researchers to create identifying "markers" along this winding road. The endophenotypes could make it possible to redefine the nosological categories and enhance understanding of the physiopathology of schizophrenia. In a predictive approach, large-scale retrospective and prospective studies make it possible to identify risk factors, which are compatible with the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of schizophrenia. However, the predictive value of such markers or risk indicators is not yet sufficiently developed to offer a reliable early-detection method or possible schizophrenia prevention measures. Nonetheless, new developments show promise against the background of a possible future nosographic revolution, based on a paradigm shift. It is perhaps on the basis of homogeneous endophenotypes in particular that we will be able to understand what protects against, or indeed can trigger, psychosis irrespective of the clinical expression or attempts to isolate the common genetic and biological bases according to homogeneous clinical characteristics, which have to date, proved unsuccessful

In silico prediction of human carboxylesterase-1 (hCES1) metabolism combining docking analyses and MD simulations.

Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted in developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas little has been done to predict the hydrolytic activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES1. The study involves both docking analyses of known substrates to develop predictive models, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to reveal the in situ behavior of substrates and products, with particular attention being paid to the influence of their ionization state. The results emphasize some crucial properties of the hCES1 catalytic cavity, confirming that as a trend with several exceptions, hCES1 prefers substrates with relatively smaller and somewhat polar alkyl/aryl groups and larger hydrophobic acyl moieties. The docking results underline the usefulness of the hydrophobic interaction score proposed here, which allows a robust prediction of hCES1 catalysis, while the MD simulations show the different behavior of substrates and products in the enzyme cavity, suggesting in particular that basic substrates interact with the enzyme in their unprotonated form.

Structural prediction of peptides bound to MHC class I.

An ab initio structure prediction approach adapted to the peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I system is presented. Based on structure comparisons of a large set of peptide-MHC class I complexes, a molecular dynamics protocol is proposed using simulated annealing (SA) cycles to sample the conformational space of the peptide in its fixed MHC environment. A set of 14 peptide-human leukocyte antigen (HLA) A0201 and 27 peptide-non-HLA A0201 complexes for which X-ray structures are available is used to test the accuracy of the prediction method. For each complex, 1000 peptide conformers are obtained from the SA sampling. A graph theory clustering algorithm based on heavy atom root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) values is applied to the sampled conformers. The clusters are ranked using cluster size, mean effective or conformational free energies, with solvation free energies computed using Generalized Born MV 2 (GB-MV2) and Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) continuum models. The final conformation is chosen as the center of the best-ranked cluster. With conformational free energies, the overall prediction success is 83% using a 1.00 Angstroms crystal RMSD criterion for main-chain atoms, and 76% using a 1.50 Angstroms RMSD criterion for heavy atoms. The prediction success is even higher for the set of 14 peptide-HLA A0201 complexes: 100% of the peptides have main-chain RMSD values &lt; or =1.00 Angstroms and 93% of the peptides have heavy atom RMSD values &lt; or =1.50 Angstroms. This structure prediction method can be applied to complexes of natural or modified antigenic peptides in their MHC environment with the aim to perform rational structure-based optimizations of tumor vaccines.