Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

Three essays in dynamic corporate finance

Summary Throughout my thesis, I elaborate on how real and financing frictions affect corporate decision making under uncertainty, and I explore how firms time their investment and financing decisions given such frictions. While the macroeconomics literature has focused on the impact of real frictions on investment decisions assuming all equity financed firms, the financial economics literature has mainly focused on the study of financing frictions. My thesis therefore assesses the join interaction of real and financing frictions in firms' dynamic investment and financing decisions. My work provides a rationale for the documented poor empirical performance of neoclassical investment models based on the joint effect of real and financing frictions on investment. A major observation relies in how the infrequency of corporate decisions may affect standard empirical tests. My thesis suggests that the book to market sorts commonly used in the empirical asset pricing literature have economic content, as they control for the lumpiness in firms' optimal investment policies. My work also elaborates on the effects of asymmetric information and strategic interaction on firms' investment and financing decisions. I study how firms time their decision to raise public equity when outside investors lack information about their future investment prospects. I derive areal-options model that predicts either cold or hot markets for new stock issues conditional on adverse selection, and I provide a rational approach to study jointly the market timing of corporate decisions and announcement effects in stock returns. My doctoral dissertation therefore contributes to our understanding of how under real and financing frictions may bias standard empirical tests, elaborates on how adverse selection may induce hot and cold markets in new issues' markets, and suggests how the underlying economic behaviour of firms may induce alternative patterns in stock prices.

Persuasion, binary choice, and the costs of dishonesty

We study the strategic interaction between a decision maker who needs to take a binary decision but is uncertain about relevant facts and an informed expert who can send a message to the decision maker but has a preference over the decision.We show that the probability that the expert can persuade the decision maker to take the expert's preferred decision is a hump-shaped function of his costs of sending dishonest messages.

Experimental Cournot oligopoly and inequity aversion

This paper explores the role of inequity aversion as an explanation for observed behavior in experimental Cournot oligopolies. We show that inequity aversion can change the nature of the strategic interaction: quantities are strategic substitutes for sufficiently asymmetric output levels but strategic complements otherwise. We find that inequity aversion can explain why: (i) some experiments result in higher than Cournot-Nash production levels while others result in lower, (ii) collusion often occurs with only two players whereas with three or more players market outcomes are very close to Cournot-Nash, and (iii) players often achieve equal profits in asymmetric Cournot oligopoly.

Economics of public governance with strategic production of information: four essays

SUMMARY This paper analyses the outcomes of the EEA and bilateral agreements vote at the level of the 3025 communities of the Swiss Confederation by simultaneously modelling the vote and the participation decisions. Regressions include economic and political factors. The economic variables are the aggregated shares of people employed in the losing, Winning and neutral sectors, according to BRUNETTI, JAGGI and WEDER (1998) classification, Which follows a Ricardo-Viner logic, and the average education levels, which follows a Heckscher-Ohlin approach. The political factors are those used in the recent literature. The results are extremely precise and consistent. Most of the variables have the predicted sign and are significant at the l % level. More than 80 % of the communities' vote variance is explained by the model, substantially reducing the residuals when compared to former studies. The political variables do have the expected signs and are significant as Well. Our results underline the importance of the interaction between electoral choice and participation decisions as well as the importance of simultaneously dealing with those issues. Eventually they reveal the electorate's high level of information and rationality. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Unser Beitrag analysiert in einem Model, welches gleichzeitig die Stimm- ("ja" oder "nein") und Partizipationsentscheidung einbezieht, den Ausgang der Abstimmungen über den Beitritt zum EWR und über die bilateralen Verträge für die 3025 Gemeinden der Schweiz. Die Regressionsgleichungen beinhalten ökonomische und politische Variabeln. Die ökonomischen Variabeln beinhalten die Anteile an sektoriellen Arbeitsplatzen, die, wie in BRUNETTI, JAGGIl.1I1d WEDER (1998), in Gewinner, Verlierer und Neutrale aufgeteilt Wurden, gemäß dem Model von Ricardo-Viner, und das durchschnittliche Ausbildungsniveau, gemäß dem Model von Heckscher-Ohlin. Die politischen Variabeln sind die in der gegenwärtigen Literatur üblichen. Unsere Resultate sind bemerkenswert präzise und kohärent. Die meisten Variabeln haben das von der Theorie vorausgesagte Vorzeichen und sind hoch signifikant (l%). Mehr als 80% der Varianz der Stimmabgabe in den Gemeinden wird durch das Modell erklärt, was, im Vergleich mit früheren Arbeiten, die unerklärten Residuen Wesentlich verkleinert. Die politischen Variabeln haben auch die erwarteten Vorzeichen und sind signifikant. Unsere Resultate unterstreichen die Bedeutung der Interaktion zwischen der Stimm- und der Partizipationsentscheidung, und die Bedeutung diese gleichzeitig zu behandeln. Letztendlich, belegen sie den hohen lnformationsgrad und die hohe Rationalität der Stimmbürger. RESUME Le présent article analyse les résultats des votations sur l'EEE et sur les accords bilatéraux au niveau des 3025 communes de la Confédération en modélisant simultanément les décisions de vote ("oui" ou "non") et de participation. Les régressions incluent des déterminants économiques et politiques. Les déterminants économiques sont les parts d'emploi sectoriels agrégées en perdants, gagnants et neutres selon la classification de BRUNETTI, JAGGI ET WEDER (1998), suivant la logique du modèle Ricardo-Viner, et les niveaux de diplômes moyens, suivant celle du modèle Heckscher-Ohlin. Les déterminants politiques suivent de près ceux utilisés dans la littérature récente. Les résultats sont remarquablement précis et cohérents. La plupart des variables ont les signes prédits par les modèles et sont significatives a 1%. Plus de 80% de la variance du vote par commune sont expliqués par le modèle, faisant substantiellement reculer la part résiduelle par rapport aux travaux précédents. Les variables politiques ont aussi les signes attendus et sont aussi significatives. Nos résultats soulignent l'importance de l'interaction entre choix électoraux et décisions de participation et l'importance de les traiter simultanément. Enfin, ils mettent en lumière les niveaux élevés d'information et de rationalité de l'électorat.

Fungi, bacteria and soil pH: the oxalate-carbonate pathway as a model for metabolic interaction

The oxalatecarbonate pathway involves the oxidation of calcium oxalate to low-magnesium calcite and represents a potential long-term terrestrial sink for atmospheric CO2. In this pathway, bacterial oxalate degradation is associated with a strong local alkalinization and subsequent carbonate precipitation. In order to test whether this process occurs in soil, the role of bacteria, fungi and calcium oxalate amendments was studied using microcosms. In a model system with sterile soil amended with laboratory cultures of oxalotrophic bacteria and fungi, the addition of calcium oxalate induced a distinct pH shift and led to the final precipitation of calcite. However, the simultaneous presence of bacteria and fungi was essential to drive this pH shift. Growth of both oxalotrophic bacteria and fungi was confirmed by qPCR on the frc (oxalotrophic bacteria) and 16S rRNA genes, and the quantification of ergosterol (active fungal biomass) respectively. The experiment was replicated in microcosms with non-sterilized soil. In this case, the bacterial and fungal contribution to oxalate degradation was evaluated by treatments with specific biocides (cycloheximide and bronopol). Results showed that the autochthonous microflora oxidized calcium oxalate and induced a significant soil alkalinization. Moreover, data confirmed the results from the model soil showing that bacteria are essentially responsible for the pH shift, but require the presence of fungi for their oxalotrophic activity. The combined results highlight that the interaction between bacteria and fungi is essential to drive metabolic processes in complex environments such as soil.

Lack of evidence of the interaction of the Aß peptide with the Wnt signaling cascade in Drosophila models of Alzheimer's disease.

Background Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the leading form of dementia worldwide. The Aß-peptide is believed to be the major pathogenic compound of the disease. Since several years it is hypothesized that Aß impacts the Wnt signaling cascade and therefore activation of this signaling pathway is proposed to rescue the neurotoxic effect of Aß. Findings Expression of the human Aß42 in the Drosophila nervous system leads to a drastically shortened life span. We found that the action of Aß42 specifically in the glutamatergic motoneurons is responsible for the reduced survival. However, we find that the morphology of the glutamatergic larval neuromuscular junctions, which are widely used as the model for mammalian central nervous system synapses, is not affected by Aß42 expression. We furthermore demonstrate that genetic activation of the Wnt signal transduction pathway in the nervous system is not able to rescue the shortened life span or a rough eye phenotype in Drosophila. Conclusions Our data confirm that the life span is a useful readout of Aß42 induced neurotoxicity in Drosophila; the neuromuscular junction seems however not to be an appropriate model to study AD in flies. Additionally, our results challenge the hypothesis that Wnt signaling might be implicated in Aß42 toxicity and might serve as a drug target against AD.

Le code-switching comme ressource stratégique pour la gestion de l'interaction multilingue : coordination et leadership dans un groupe de travail

In this article, we analyze a multilingual interaction in a students' working group and hypothesize a correlation between management of languages in interaction and leadership. We consider Codeswitching as one of the most relevant observables in multilingual interaction and attempt to analyze how it is used by speakers. After a brief presentation of three theoretical and analytical conceptions of Code-switching in interaction (Auer, Mondada & Myers Scotton), we define Code-switching as an interactional, strategical, multilingual resource exploited by speakers to achieve various interactionaland non interactional goals. We then show in two CA-like analysis how multilingual strategical resources occur in the interactional practices of the analyzed working group, and how they are exploited by speakers in order to organize interaction, work, tasks, and to construct one's leadership.We also consider the metadiscourses of the students about their own practices and multilingualism in general, in order to confront them to their actual multilingual practices. We draw the hypothesis that discrepancies observed between metadiscourses and practices can be explained through the development of (meta)discourses showing a unilingual conception in describing multilingual practices.

CD28/CTLA4-B7 interaction is dispensable for T cell stimulation by mouse mammary tumor virus superantigen but not for B cell differentiation and virus dissemination.

B cells are the primary targets of infection for mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV). However, for productive retroviral infection, T cell stimulation through the virally-encoded superantigen (SAG) is necessary. It activates B cells and leads to cell division and differentiation. To characterize the role of B cell differentiation for the MMTV life cycle, we studied the course of infection in transgenic mice deficient for CD28/CTLA4-B7 interactions (mCTLA4-H gamma 1 transgenic mice). B cell infection occurred in CTLA4-H gamma 1 transgenic mice as integrated proviral DNA could be detected in draining lymph node cells early after infection by polymerase chain reaction analysis. In mice expressing I-E, B cells were able to present the viral SAG efficiently to V beta 6+ T cells. These cells expanded specifically and were triggered to express the activation marker CD69. Further stages of progression of infection appeared to be defective. Kinetics experiments indicated that T and B cell stimulation stopped more rapidly than in control mice. B cells acquired an activated CD69+ phenotype, were induced to produce IgM but only partially switched to IgG secretion. Finally, the dissemination of infected cells to other lymph nodes and spleen was reduced and the peripheral deletion of V beta 6+ T cells was minimal. In contrast, in mice lacking I-E, T cell stimulation was also impaired and B cell activation undetectable. These data implicate B7-dependent cellular interactions for superantigenic T cell stimulation by low-affinity TCR ligands and suggest a role of B cell differentiation in viral dissemination and peripheral T cell deletion.

Pharmacokinetic drug interaction potential of risperidone with cytochrome p450 isozymes as assessed by the dextromethorphan, the caffeine, and the mephenytoin test.

Two published case reports showed that addition of risperidone (1 and 2 mg/d) to a clozapine treatment resulted in a strong increase of clozapine plasma levels. As clozapine is metabolized by cytochrome P450 isozymes, a study was initiated to assess the in vivo interaction potential of risperidone on various cytochrome P450 isozymes. Eight patients were phenotyped with dextromethorphan (CYP2D6), mephenytoin (CYP2C19), and caffeine (CYP1A2) before and after the introduction of risperidone. Before risperidone, all eight patients were phenotyped as being extensive metabolizers of CYP2D6 and CYP2C19. Risperidone at dosages between 2 and 6 mg/d does not appear to significantly inhibit CYP1A2 and CYP2C19 in vivo (median plasma paraxanthine/caffeine ratios before and after risperidone: 0.65, 0.69; p = 0.89; median urinary (S)/(R) mephenytoin ratios before and after risperidone:0.11, 0.12; p = 0.75). Although dextromethorphan metabolic ratio is significantly increased by risperidone (median urinary dextromethorphan/dextrorphan ratios before and after risperidone: 0.010, 0.018; p = 0.042), risperidone can be considered a weak in vivo CYP2D6 inhibitor, as this increase is modest and none of the eight patients was changed from an extensive to a poor metabolizer. The reported increase of clozapine concentrations by risperidone can therefore not be explained by an inhibition of CYP1A2, CYP2D6, CYP2C19 or by any combination of the three.

No interaction between alcohol consumption and HDL-related genes on HDL cholesterol levels.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships and possible interactions between polymorphisms related to HDL levels and alcohol consumption. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based study including 2863 women and 2546 men aged 35-75 years (CoLaus study). Alcohol intake was assessed by the reported alcohol consumption of the last 7 days. Nineteen candidate genes known to influence HDL levels were studied. RESULTS: Alcohol consumption increased HDL cholesterol levels in both genders. After multivariate adjustment for gender, age, body mass index, smoking, hypolipidaemic drug treatment, physical activity and alcohol consumption, APOA5, CETP, LIPC and LPL gene polymorphisms were significantly (10(-5) threshold) related with HDL cholesterol levels, while no genexalcohol intake interaction was found for all SNPs studied. ABCA1 polymorphisms were related to HDL cholesterol levels on bivariate analysis but the relationship was no longer significant after multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Our data confirm the association of alcohol consumption and of APOA5, CETP, LIPC and LPL gene polymorphisms with HDL cholesterol levels. Conversely, no genexalcohol consumption interactions were found, suggesting that the effect of alcohol consumption on HDL cholesterol levels is not mediated via a modulation of HDL related genes.

High-throughput hydrophilic interaction chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry for the optimized quantification of the anti-Gram-negatives antibiotic colistin A/B and its pro-drug colistimethate.

Colistin is a last resort's antibacterial treatment in critically ill patients with multi-drug resistant Gram-negative infections. As appropriate colistin exposure is the key for maximizing efficacy while minimizing toxicity, individualized dosing optimization guided by therapeutic drug monitoring is a top clinical priority. Objective of the present work was to develop a rapid and robust HPLC-MS/MS assay for quantification of colistin plasma concentrations. This novel methodology validated according to international standards simultaneously quantifies the microbiologically active compounds colistin A and B, plus the pro-drug colistin methanesulfonate (colistimethate, CMS). 96-well micro-Elution SPE on Oasis Hydrophilic-Lipophilic-Balanced (HLB) followed by direct analysis by Hydrophilic Interaction Liquid Chromatography (HILIC) with Ethylene Bridged Hybrid - BEH - Amide phase column coupled to tandem mass spectrometry allows a high-throughput with no significant matrix effect. The technique is highly sensitive (limit of quantification 0.014 and 0.006μg/mL for colistin A and B), precise (intra-/inter-assay CV 0.6-8.4%) and accurate (intra-/inter-assay deviation from nominal concentrations -4.4 to +6.3%) over the clinically relevant analytical range 0.05-20μg/mL. Colistin A and B in plasma and whole blood samples are reliably quantified over 48h at room temperature and at +4°C (<6% deviation from nominal values) and after three freeze-thaw cycles. Colistimethate acidic hydrolysis (1M H2SO4) to colistin A and B in plasma was completed in vitro after 15min of sonication while the pro-drug hydrolyzed spontaneously in plasma ex vivo after 4h at room temperature: this information is of utmost importance for interpretation of analytical results. Quantification is precise and accurate when using serum, citrated or EDTA plasma as biological matrix, while use of heparin plasma is not appropriate. This new analytical technique providing optimized quantification in real-life conditions of the microbiologically active compounds colistin A and B offers a highly efficient tool for routine therapeutic drug monitoring aimed at individualizing drug dosing against life-threatening infections.