41 resultados para Random Pore Model
em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
Resumo:
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To assess whether the combined analysis of all phase III trials of nonvitamin-K-antagonist (non-VKA) oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack shows a significant difference in efficacy or safety compared with warfarin. METHODS: We searched PubMed until May 31, 2012, for randomized clinical trials using the following search items: atrial fibrillation, anticoagulation, warfarin, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. Studies had to be phase III trials in atrial fibrillation patients comparing warfarin with a non-VKA currently on the market or with the intention to be brought to the market in North America or Europe. Analysis was performed on intention-to-treat basis. A fixed-effects model was used as more appropriate than a random-effects model when combining a small number of studies. RESULTS: Among 47 potentially eligible articles, 3 were included in the meta-analysis. In 14 527 patients, non-VKAs were associated with a significant reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (odds ratios, 0.85 [95% CI, 074-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 14%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 134 over 1.8-2.0 years) compared with warfarin. Non-VKAs were also associated with a significant reduction of major bleeding compared with warfarin (odds ratios, 0.86 [95% CI, 075-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 13%; absolute risk reduction, 0.8%; number needed to treat, 125), mainly driven by the significant reduction of hemorrhagic stroke (odds ratios, 0.44 [95% CI, 032-0.62]; relative risk reduction, 57.9%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 139). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of the significant limitations of combining the results of disparate trials of different agents, non-VKAs seem to be associated with a significant reduction in rates of stroke or systemic embolism, hemorrhagic stroke, and major bleeding when compared with warfarin in patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack.
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This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.
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Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.
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PURPOSE: To determine and compare the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT) for the diagnosis of tumor extent in advanced retinoblastoma, using histopathologic analysis as the reference standard. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with advanced retinoblastoma who underwent MRI, CT, or both for the detection of tumor extent from published diagnostic accuracy studies. METHODS: Medline and Embase were searched for literature published through April 2013 assessing the diagnostic performance of MRI, CT, or both in detecting intraorbital and extraorbital tumor extension of retinoblastoma. Diagnostic accuracy data were extracted from included studies. Summary estimates were based on a random effects model. Intrastudy and interstudy heterogeneity were analyzed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity and specificity of MRI and CT in detecting tumor extent. RESULTS: Data of the following tumor-extent parameters were extracted: anterior eye segment involvement and ciliary body, optic nerve, choroidal, and (extra)scleral invasion. Articles on MRI reported results of 591 eyes from 14 studies, and articles on CT yielded 257 eyes from 4 studies. The summary estimates with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the diagnostic accuracy of conventional MRI at detecting postlaminar optic nerve, choroidal, and scleral invasion showed sensitivities of 59% (95% CI, 37%-78%), 74% (95% CI, 52%-88%), and 88% (95% CI, 20%-100%), respectively, and specificities of 94% (95% CI, 84%-98%), 72% (95% CI, 31%-94%), and 99% (95% CI, 86%-100%), respectively. Magnetic resonance imaging with a high (versus a low) image quality showed higher diagnostic accuracies for detection of prelaminar optic nerve and choroidal invasion, but these differences were not statistically significant. Studies reporting the diagnostic accuracy of CT did not provide enough data to perform any meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Magnetic resonance imaging is an important diagnostic tool for the detection of local tumor extent in advanced retinoblastoma, although its diagnostic accuracy shows room for improvement, especially with regard to sensitivity. With only a few-mostly old-studies, there is very little evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of CT, and generally these studies show low diagnostic accuracy. Future studies assessing the role of MRI in clinical decision making in terms of prognostic value for advanced retinoblastoma are needed.
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This paper presents 3-D brain tissue classificationschemes using three recent promising energy minimizationmethods for Markov random fields: graph cuts, loopybelief propagation and tree-reweighted message passing.The classification is performed using the well knownfinite Gaussian mixture Markov Random Field model.Results from the above methods are compared with widelyused iterative conditional modes algorithm. Theevaluation is performed on a dataset containing simulatedT1-weighted MR brain volumes with varying noise andintensity non-uniformities. The comparisons are performedin terms of energies as well as based on ground truthsegmentations, using various quantitative metrics.
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Toperform a meta-analysis of FDG-PET performances in the diagnosis of largevessels vasculitis (Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA) associated or not withPolymyalgia Rheumatica(PMR), Takayasu). Materials and methods : The MEDLINE,Cochrane Library, Embase were searched for relevant original articlesdescribing FDG-PET for vasculitis assessment, using MesH terms ("GiantCell Arteritis or Vasculitis" AND "PET"). Criteria for inclusionwere:(1)FDG-PET for diagnosis of vasculitis(2)American College of Rheumatologycriteria as reference standard(3)control group. After data extraction, analyseswere performed using a random-effects model. Results : Of 184 citations(database search and references screening),70 articles were reviewed of which12 eligible studies were extracted (sensitivity range from 32% to 97%). 7studies fulfilled all inclusion criteria. Owing to overlapping population, 1study was excluded. Statistical heterogeneity justified the random-effectsmodel. Pooled 6 studies analysis(116 vasculitis,224 controls) showed a 81%sensitivity (95%CI:70-89%);a 89% specificity (95%CI:77-95%);a 85%PPV(95%CI:63-95%); a 90% NPV(95%CI:79-95%);a 7.1 positive LR(95%CI:3.4-14.9); a0.2 negative LR(95%CI:0.14-0.35) and 90.1 DOR(95%CI: 18.6-437). Conclusion :FDG-PET has good diagnostic performances in the detection of large vesselsvasculitis. Its promising role could be extended to follow up patients undertreatment, but further studies are needed to confirm this possibility.
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BACKGROUND: Resection of lung metastases (LM) from colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasingly performed with a curative intent. It is currently not possible to identify those CRC patients who may benefit the most from this surgical strategy. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review of risk factors for survival after lung metastasectomy for CRC. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of series published between 2000 and 2011, which focused on surgical management of LM from CRC and included more than 40 patients each. Pooled hazard ratios (HR) were calculated by using random effects model for parameters considered as potential prognostic factors. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies including a total of 2925 patients were considered in this analysis. Four parameters were associated with poor survival: (1) a short disease-free interval between primary tumor resection and development of LM (HR 1.59, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.27-1.98); (2) multiple LM (HR 2.04, 95 % CI 1.72-2.41); (3) positive hilar and/or mediastinal lymph nodes (HR 1.65, 95 % CI 1.35-2.02); and (4) elevated prethoracotomy carcinoembryonic antigen (HR 1.91, 95 % CI 1.57-2.32). By comparison, a history of resected liver metastases (HR 1.22, 95 % CI 0.91-1.64) did not achieve statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical variables associated with prolonged survival after surgery for LM in CRC patients include prolonged disease-free interval between primary tumor and metastatic spread, normal prethoracotomy carcinoembryonic antigen, absence of thoracic node involvement, and a single pulmonary lesion.
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Aim. To predict the fate of alpine interactions involving specialized species, using a monophagous beetle and its host-plant as a case study. Location. The Alps. Methods. We investigated genetic structuring of the herbivorous beetle Oreina gloriosa and its specific host-plant Peucedanum ostruthium. We used genome fingerprinting (in the insect and the plant) and sequence data (in the insect) to compare the distribution of the main gene pools in the two associated species and to estimate divergence time in the insect, a proxy for the temporal origin of the interaction. We quantified the similarity in spatial genetic structures by performing a Procrustes analysis, a tool from the shape theory. Finally, we simulated recolonization of an empty space analogous to the deglaciated Alps just after ice retreat by two lineages from two species showing unbalanced dependence, to examine how timing of the recolonization process, as well as dispersal capacities of associated species, could explain the observed pattern. Results. Contrasting with expectations based on their asymmetrical dependence, patterns in the beetle and plant were congruent at a large scale. Exceptions occurred at a regional scale in areas of admixture, matching known suture zones in Alpine plants. Simulations using a lattice-based model suggested these empirical patterns arose during or soon after recolonization, long after the estimated origin of the interaction c. 0.5 million years ago. Main conclusions. Species-specific interactions are scarce in alpine habitats because glacial cycles have limited opportunities for coevolution. Their fate, however, remains uncertain under climate change. Here we show that whereas most dispersal routes are paralleled at large scale, regional incongruence implies that the destinies of the species might differ under changing climate. This may be a consequence of the host-dependence of the beetle that locally limits the establishment of dispersing insects.
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Aims: Recently, several clinical trials analyzed if extended duration of treatment with pegylated interferon-alfa and ribavirin over 48 weeks can improve sustained virologic response (SVR) rates in HCV genotype 1-infected patients with slow virologic response. Because results of these clinical trials are conflicting, we performed a metaanalysis to determine the overall impact of extended treatment compared to standard treatment on virologic response rates in treatment-naive HCV genotype 1 slow responders. Methods: Literature search was performed independently by two observers using Pub Med, EMBASE, CENTRAL and abstracts presented in English at international liver and gastroenterology meetings. Randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs; but studies that re-analyzed data retrospectively RCTs were also allowed) were considered if they included monoinfected treatment-naive HCV genotype 1 patients and compared treatment with pegIFN-alfa 2a or 2b in combination with ribavirin for 48 weeks versus extended treatment (up to 72 weeks) in slow responders. Primary and secondary end points were SVR rates and end-of-treatment (EOT) and relapse rates, respectively. In the present meta-analysis, study endpoints were summarized with a DerSimonian-Laird estimate for binary outcome basing on a random effects model. Results: Literature search yielded seven RTCs addressing the benefit of extended treatment with pegylated interferon-alfa and ribavirin in treatment-naive HCV genotype 1 slow responders. In total, 1330 slow responders were included in our meta-analysis. We show that extended treatment duration compared to the standard of care significantly improves SVR rates in HCV genotype 1 slow responders (12.4% improvement of overall SVR rate, 95% CI 0.055- 0.193, P = 0.0005). In addition, we show that rates of viral relapse were significantly reduced by extended treatment (24.1% reduction of relapse, 95% CI −0.3332 to −0.1487, P < 0.0001), whereas no significant impact of extended treatment on EOT response rates was found. Though extended treatment was burdened with an enhanced rate of premature treatment discontinuation due to interferonalfa- and ribavirin-related side effects, the frequency of serious adverse events was not increased. Conclusions: Treatment extension in HCV genotype 1 slow responders can improve SVR rates in difficult to treat patients and should be considered in patients who need to be treated before specific antivirals will be approved.
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The progression of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C has long been considered to be independent from viral genotypes. However, recent studies suggest an association between Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 and accelerated liver disease progression. We completed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies evaluating the association between HCV genotypes and fibrosis progression. PubMed, Embase and ISI Web of Knowledge databases were searched for cohort, cross-sectional and case-control studies on treatment-naïve HCV-infected adults in which liver fibrosis progression rate (FPR) was assessed by the ratio of fibrosis stage in one single biopsy to the duration of infection (single-biopsy studies) or from the change in fibrosis stage between two biopsies (paired biopsies studies). A random effect model was used to derive FPR among different HCV genotypes. Eight single-biopsy studies (3182 patients, mean/median duration of infection ranging from 9 to 21 years) and eight paired biopsies studies (mean interval between biopsies 2-12 years) met the selection criteria. The odds ratio for the association of genotype 3 with accelerated fibrosis progression was 1.52 (95% CI 1.12-2.07, P = 0.007) in single-biopsy studies and 1.37 (95% CI 0.87-2.17, P = 0.17) in paired biopsy studies. In conclusion, viral genotype 3 was associated with faster fibrosis progression in single-biopsy studies. This observation may have important consequences on the clinical management of genotype 3-infected patients. The association was not significant in paired biopsies studies, although the latter may be limited by important indication bias, short observation time and small sample size.
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BACKGROUND: Results from cohort studies evaluating the severity of respiratory viral co-infections are conflicting. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the clinical severity of viral co-infections as compared to single viral respiratory infections. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and other sources for studies published up to January 28, 2013. We included observational studies on inpatients with respiratory illnesses comparing the clinical severity of viral co-infections to single viral infections as detected by molecular assays. The primary outcome reflecting clinical disease severity was length of hospital stay (LOS). A random-effects model was used to conduct the meta-analyses. RESULTS: Twenty-one studies involving 4,280 patients were included. The overall quality of evidence applying the GRADE approach ranged from moderate for oxygen requirements to low for all other outcomes. No significant differences in length of hospital stay (LOS) (mean difference (MD) -0.20 days, 95% CI -0.94, 0.53, p = 0.59), or mortality (RR 2.44, 95% CI 0.86, 6.91, p = 0.09) were documented in subjects with viral co-infections compared to those with a single viral infection. There was no evidence for differences in effects across age subgroups in post hoc analyses with the exception of the higher mortality in preschool children (RR 9.82, 95% CI 3.09, 31.20, p<0.001) with viral co-infection as compared to other age groups (I2 for subgroup analysis 64%, p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: No differences in clinical disease severity between viral co-infections and single respiratory infections were documented. The suggested increased risk of mortality observed amongst children with viral co-infections requires further investigation.
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We present MBIS (Multivariate Bayesian Image Segmentation tool), a clustering tool based on the mixture of multivariate normal distributions model. MBIS supports multichannel bias field correction based on a B-spline model. A second methodological novelty is the inclusion of graph-cuts optimization for the stationary anisotropic hidden Markov random field model. Along with MBIS, we release an evaluation framework that contains three different experiments on multi-site data. We first validate the accuracy of segmentation and the estimated bias field for each channel. MBIS outperforms a widely used segmentation tool in a cross-comparison evaluation. The second experiment demonstrates the robustness of results on atlas-free segmentation of two image sets from scan-rescan protocols on 21 healthy subjects. Multivariate segmentation is more replicable than the monospectral counterpart on T1-weighted images. Finally, we provide a third experiment to illustrate how MBIS can be used in a large-scale study of tissue volume change with increasing age in 584 healthy subjects. This last result is meaningful as multivariate segmentation performs robustly without the need for prior knowledge.
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BACKGROUND: Studies on hexaminolevulinate (HAL) cystoscopy report improved detection of bladder tumours. However, recent meta-analyses report conflicting effects on recurrence. OBJECTIVE: To assess available clinical data for blue light (BL) HAL cystoscopy on the detection of Ta/T1 and carcinoma in situ (CIS) tumours, and on tumour recurrence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This meta-analysis reviewed raw data from prospective studies on 1345 patients with known or suspected non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). INTERVENTION: A single application of HAL cystoscopy was used as an adjunct to white light (WL) cystoscopy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We studied the detection of NMIBC (intention to treat [ITT]: n=831; six studies) and recurrence (per protocol: n=634; three studies) up to 1 yr. DerSimonian and Laird's random-effects model was used to obtain pooled relative risks (RRs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes for detection. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: BL cystoscopy detected significantly more Ta tumours (14.7%; p<0.001; odds ratio [OR]: 4.898; 95% CI, 1.937-12.390) and CIS lesions (40.8%; p<0.001; OR: 12.372; 95% CI, 6.343-24.133) than WL. There were 24.9% patients with at least one additional Ta/T1 tumour seen with BL (p<0.001), significant also in patients with primary (20.7%; p<0.001) and recurrent cancer (27.7%; p<0.001), and in patients at high risk (27.0%; p<0.001) and intermediate risk (35.7%; p=0.004). In 26.7% of patients, CIS was detected only by BL (p<0.001) and was also significant in patients with primary (28.0%; p<0.001) and recurrent cancer (25.0%; p<0.001). Recurrence rates up to 12 mo were significantly lower overall with BL, 34.5% versus 45.4% (p=0.006; RR: 0.761 [0.627-0.924]), and lower in patients with T1 or CIS (p=0.052; RR: 0.696 [0.482-1.003]), Ta (p=0.040; RR: 0.804 [0.653-0.991]), and in high-risk (p=0.050) and low-risk (p=0.029) subgroups. Some subgroups had too few patients to allow statistically meaningful analysis. Heterogeneity was minimised by the statistical analysis method used. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis confirms that HAL BL cystoscopy significantly improves the detection of bladder tumours leading to a reduction of recurrence at 9-12 mo. The benefit is independent of the level of risk and is evident in patients with Ta, T1, CIS, primary, and recurrent cancer.
Meta-analysis: subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk for coronary heart disease and mortality
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BACKGROUND: Data on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality are conflicting. PURPOSE: To summarize prospective evidence about the relationship between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and CHD and mortality. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (1950 to January 2008) without language restrictions and reference lists of retrieved articles were searched. STUDY SELECTION: Two reviewers screened and selected cohort studies that measured thyroid function and then followed persons prospectively to assess CHD or mortality. DATA EXTRACTION: By using a standardized protocol and forms, 2 reviewers independently abstracted and assessed studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: Ten of 12 identified studies involved population-based cohorts that included 14 449 participants. All 10 population-based cohort studies examined risks associated with subclinical hypothyroidism (2134 CHD events and 2822 deaths), whereas only 5 examined risks associated with subclinical hyperthyroidism (1392 CHD events and 1993 deaths). In a random-effects model, the relative risk (RR) for subclinical hypothyroidism for CHD was 1.20 (95% CI, 0.97 to 1.49; P for heterogeneity = 0.14; I(2 )= 33.4%). Risk estimates were lower when higher-quality studies were pooled (RR, 1.02 to 1.08) and were higher among participants younger than 65 years (RR, 1.51 [CI, 1.09 to 2.09] for studies with mean participant age <65 years and 1.05 [CI, 0.90 to 1.22] for studies with mean participant age > or =65 years). The RR was 1.18 (CI, 0.98 to 1.42) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.12 (CI, 0.99 to 1.26) for total mortality. For subclinical hyperthyroidism, the RR was 1.21 (CI, 0.88 to 1.68) for CHD, 1.19 (CI, 0.81 to 1.76) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.12 (CI, 0.89 to 1.42) for total mortality (P for heterogeneity >0.50; I(2 )= 0% for all studies). LIMITATIONS: Individual studies adjusted for different potential confounders, and 1 study provided only unadjusted data. Publication bias or selective reporting of outcomes could not be excluded. CONCLUSION: Subclinical hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism may be associated with a modest increased risk for CHD and mortality, with lower risk estimates when pooling higher-quality studies and larger CIs for subclinical hyperthyroidism
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Rapport de synthèse : Description : ce travail de thèse évalue de façon systématique les études sur l'association entre les dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques d'une part, et la maladie coronarienne et la mortalité d'autre part. Les hypothyroïdies infracliniques affectent environ 4-5% de la population adulte alors que la prévalence de l'hyperthyroïdie infraclinique est inférieure (environ 1%). L'éventuelle association entre elles pourrait justifier un dépistage systématique des dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques. Les précédentes études sur l'association entre l'hypothyroïdie infraclinique et la maladie coronarienne ont donné des résultats conflictuels. La parution de nouveaux articles récents basés sur de grandes cohortes prospectives nous a permis d'effectuer une méta-analyse basée uniquement sur des études de cohorte prospectives, augmentant ainsi la validité des résultats. Résultats: 10 des 12 études identifiées pour notre revue systématique sont basées sur des cohortes issues de la population générale («population-based »), regroupant en tout 14 449 participants. Ces 10 études examinent toutes le risque associé à l'hypothyroïdie infraclinique (avec 2134 événements coronariens et 2822 décès), alors que 5 étudient également le risque associé à l'hyperthyroïdie infraclinique (avec 1392 événements coronariens et 1993 décès). En utilisant un modèle statistique de type random-effect model, le risque relatif [RR] lié à l'hypothyroïdie infraclinique pour la maladie coronarienne est de 1.20 (intervalle de confiance [IC] de 95%, 0.97 à 1.49). Le risque diminue lorsque l'on regroupe uniquement les études de meilleure qualité (RR compris entre 1.02 et 1.08). Il est plus élevé parmi les participants de moins de 65 ans (RR, 1.51 [IC, 1.09 à 2.09] et 1.05 [IC, 0.90 à 1.22] pour les études dont l'âge moyen des participants est >_ 65 ans). Le RR de la mortalité cardiovasculaire est de 1.18 (IC, 0.98 à 1.42) et de 1.12 (IC, 0.99 à 1.26) pour la mortalité totale. En cas d'hyperthyroïdie infraclinique, les RR de la maladie coronarienne sont de 1.21 (IC, 0.88 à 1.68), de 1.19 (IC, 0.81 à 1.76) pour la mortalité cardiovasculaire, et de 1.12 (IC, 0.89 à 1.42) pour la mortalité totale. Conclusions et perspectives : nos résultats montrent que les dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques (hypothyroïdie et hyperthyroïdie infracliniques) représentent un facteur de risque modifiable, bien que modéré, de la maladie coronarienne et de la mortalité. L'efficacité du traitement de ces dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques doit encore être prouvée du point de vue cardiovasculaire et de la mortalité. Il est nécessaire d'effectuer des études contrôlées contre placebo avec le risque cardiovasculaire et la mortalité comme critères d'efficacité, avant de pouvoir proposer des recommandations sur le dépistage des ces dysfonctions thyroïdiennes dans la population adulte.