Toxic substances in blood: an analysis of current recommendations under a Bayesian (decision) approach

This article extends existing discussion in literature on probabilistic inference and decision making with respect to continuous hypotheses that are prevalent in forensic toxicology. As a main aim, this research investigates the properties of a widely followed approach for quantifying the level of toxic substances in blood samples, and to compare this procedure with a Bayesian probabilistic approach. As an example, attention is confined to the presence of toxic substances, such as THC, in blood from car drivers. In this context, the interpretation of results from laboratory analyses needs to take into account legal requirements for establishing the 'presence' of target substances in blood. In a first part, the performance of the proposed Bayesian model for the estimation of an unknown parameter (here, the amount of a toxic substance) is illustrated and compared with the currently used method. The model is then used in a second part to approach-in a rational way-the decision component of the problem, that is judicial questions of the kind 'Is the quantity of THC measured in the blood over the legal threshold of 1.5 μg/l?'. This is pointed out through a practical example.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

CLOCK-controlled polyphonic regulation of circadian rhythms through canonical and noncanonical E-boxes.

In mammalian circadian clockwork, the CLOCK-BMAL1 complex binds to DNA enhancers of target genes and drives circadian oscillation of transcription. Here we identified 7,978 CLOCK-binding sites in mouse liver by chromatin immunoprecipitation-sequencing (ChIP-Seq), and a newly developed bioinformatics method, motif centrality analysis of ChIP-Seq (MOCCS), revealed a genome-wide distribution of previously unappreciated noncanonical E-boxes targeted by CLOCK. In vitro promoter assays showed that CACGNG, CACGTT, and CATG(T/C)G are functional CLOCK-binding motifs. Furthermore, we extensively revealed rhythmically expressed genes by poly(A)-tailed RNA-Seq and identified 1,629 CLOCK target genes within 11,926 genes expressed in the liver. Our analysis also revealed rhythmically expressed genes that have no apparent CLOCK-binding site, indicating the importance of indirect transcriptional and posttranscriptional regulations. Indirect transcriptional regulation is represented by rhythmic expression of CLOCK-regulated transcription factors, such as Krüppel-like factors (KLFs). Indirect posttranscriptional regulation involves rhythmic microRNAs that were identified by small-RNA-Seq. Collectively, CLOCK-dependent direct transactivation through multiple E-boxes and indirect regulations polyphonically orchestrate dynamic circadian outputs.

Non-assisted versus neuro-navigated and XperCT-guided external ventricular catheter placement: a comparative cadaver study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Accurate placement of an external ventricular drain (EVD) for the treatment of hydrocephalus is of paramount importance for its functionality and in order to minimize morbidity and complications. The aim of this study was to compare two different drain insertion assistance tools with the traditional free-hand anatomical landmark method, and to measure efficacy, safety and precision. METHODS: Ten cadaver heads were prepared by opening large bone windows centered on Kocher's points on both sides. Nineteen physicians, divided in two groups (trainees and board certified neurosurgeons) performed EVD insertions. The target for the ventricular drain tip was the ipsilateral foramen of Monro. Each participant inserted the external ventricular catheter in three different ways: 1) free-hand by anatomical landmarks, 2) neuronavigation-assisted (NN), and 3) XperCT-guided (XCT). The number of ventricular hits and dangerous trajectories; time to proceed; radiation exposure of patients and physicians; distance of the catheter tip to target and size of deviations projected in the orthogonal plans were measured and compared. RESULTS: Insertion using XCT increased the probability of ventricular puncture from 69.2 to 90.2 % (p = 0.02). Non-assisted placements were significantly less precise (catheter tip to target distance 14.3 ± 7.4 mm versus 9.6 ± 7.2 mm, p = 0.0003). The insertion time to proceed increased from 3.04 ± 2.06 min. to 7.3 ± 3.6 min. (p < 0.001). The X-ray exposure for XCT was 32.23 mSv, but could be reduced to 13.9 mSv if patients were initially imaged in the hybrid-operating suite. No supplementary radiation exposure is needed for NN if patients are imaged according to a navigation protocol initially. CONCLUSION: This ex vivo study demonstrates a significantly improved accuracy and safety using either NN or XCT-assisted methods. Therefore, efforts should be undertaken to implement these new technologies into daily clinical practice. However, the accuracy versus urgency of an EVD placement has to be balanced, as the image-guided insertion technique will implicate a longer preparation time due to a specific image acquisition and trajectory planning.

Population demography and the evolution of helping behaviors.

Limited dispersal may favor the evolution of helping behaviors between relatives as it increases their relatedness, and it may inhibit such evolution as it increases local competition between these relatives. Here, we explore one way out of this dilemma: if the helping behavior allows groups to expand in size, then the kin-competition pressure opposing its evolution can be greatly reduced. We explore the effects of two kinds of stochasticity allowing for such deme expansion. First, we study the evolution of helping under environmental stochasticity that may induce complete patch extinction. Helping evolves if it results in a decrease in the probability of extinction or if it enhances the rate of patch recolonization through propagules formed by fission of nonextinct groups. This mode of dispersal is indeed commonly found in social species. Second, we consider the evolution of helping in the presence of demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is below its value maximizing deme size (undersaturation), helping evolves, but under stringent conditions unless positive density dependence (Allee effect) interferes with demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is above its value maximizing deme size (oversaturation), helping may also evolve, but only if it reduces negative density-dependent competition.

Epidermal growth factor receptor: a re-emerging target in glioblastoma.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Amplification and overexpression of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene are a hallmark of primary glioblastoma (45%), making it a prime target for therapy. In addition, these amplifications are frequently associated with oncogenic mutations in the extracellular domain. However, efforts at targeting the EGFR tyrosine kinase using small molecule inhibitors or antibodies have shown disappointing efficacy in clinical trials for newly diagnosed or recurrent glioblastoma. Here, we review recent insights into molecular mechanisms relevant for effective targeting of the EGFR pathway. RECENT FINDINGS: Molecular workup of glioblastoma tissue of patients under treatment with small molecule inhibitors has established drug concentrations in the tumor tissue, and has shed light on the effectiveness of target inhibition and respective effects on pathway signaling. Further, functional analyses of interaction of small molecule inhibitors with distinct properties to bind to the active or inactive form of EGFR have provided new insights that will impact the choice of drugs. Finally, vaccination approaches targeting the EGFRvIII mutant featuring a tumor-specific antigen have shown promising results that warrant larger controlled clinical trials. SUMMARY: A combination of preclinical and clinical studies at the molecular level has provided new insights that will allow refining strategies for targeting the EGFR pathway in glioblastoma.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part I. Partial SGM Plus profiles.

In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.

Extent of non-publication in cohorts of studies approved by research ethics committees or included in trial registries

BACKGROUND: The synthesis of published research in systematic reviews is essential when providing evidence to inform clinical and health policy decision-making. However, the validity of systematic reviews is threatened if journal publications represent a biased selection of all studies that have been conducted (dissemination bias). To investigate the extent of dissemination bias we conducted a systematic review that determined the proportion of studies published as peer-reviewed journal articles and investigated factors associated with full publication in cohorts of studies (i) approved by research ethics committees (RECs) or (ii) included in trial registries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Four bibliographic databases were searched for methodological research projects (MRPs) without limitations for publication year, language or study location. The searches were supplemented by handsearching the references of included MRPs. We estimated the proportion of studies published using prediction intervals (PI) and a random effects meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratios (OR) were used to express associations between study characteristics and journal publication. Seventeen MRPs (23 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies approved by RECs; the proportion of published studies had a PI between 22% and 72% and the weighted pooled proportion when combining estimates would be 46.2% (95% CI 40.2%-52.4%, I2 = 94.4%). Twenty-two MRPs (22 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies included in trial registries; the PI of the proportion published ranged from 13% to 90% and the weighted pooled proportion would be 54.2% (95% CI 42.0%-65.9%, I2 = 98.9%). REC-approved studies with statistically significant results (compared with those without statistically significant results) were more likely to be published (pooled OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.2-3.5). Phase-III trials were also more likely to be published than phase II trials (pooled OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6-2.5). The probability of publication within two years after study completion ranged from 7% to 30%. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial part of the studies approved by RECs or included in trial registries remains unpublished. Due to the large heterogeneity a prediction of the publication probability for a future study is very uncertain. Non-publication of research is not a random process, e.g., it is associated with the direction of study findings. Our findings suggest that the dissemination of research findings is biased.

Inheritance of ductile and brittle structures in the development of large rock slope instabilities: Examples from western Norway

The high density of slope failures in western Norway is due to the steep relief and to the concentration of various structures that followed protracted ductile and brittle tectonics. On the 72 investigated rock slope instabilities, 13 were developed in soft weathered mafic and phyllitic allochthons. Only the intrinsic weakness of such rocks increases the susceptibility to gravitational deformation. In contrast, the gravitational structures in the hard gneisses reactivate prominent ductile or/and brittle fabrics. At 30 rockslides along cataclinal slopes, weak mafic layers of foliation are reactivated as basal planes. Slope-parallel steep foliation forms back-cracks of unstable columns. Folds are specifically present in the Storfjord area, together with a clustering of potential slope failures. Folding increases the probability of having favourably orientated planes with respect to the gravitational forces and the slope. High water pressure is believed to seasonally build up along the shallow-dipping Caledonian detachments and may contribute to destabilization of the rock slope upwards. Regional cataclastic faults localized the gravitational structures at 45 sites. The volume of the slope instabilities tends to increase with the amount of reactivated prominent structures and the spacing of the latter controls the size of instabilities.

Immune regulation and function of the NOD-like receptors NLRC5 and NLRP3

AbstractThe vertebrate immune system is composed of the innate and the adaptive branches. Innate immune cells represent the first line of defense and detect pathogens through pattern recognition receptors (PRRs), detecting evolutionary conserved pathogen- and danger- associated molecular patterns. Engagement of these receptors initiates the inflammatory response, but also instructs antigen-specific adaptive immune cells. NOD-like receptors (NLRs) are an important group of PRRs, leading to the production of inflammatory mediators and favoring antigen presentation to Τ lymphocytes through the regulation of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules.In this work we focused our attention on selected NOD-like receptors (NLRs) and their role at the interface between innate and adaptive immunity. First, we describe a new regulatory mechanism controlling IL-1 production. Our results indicate that type I interferons (IFNs) block NLRP1 and NLRP3 inflammasome activity and interfere with LPS-driven proIL-Ια and -β induction. As type I IFNs are produced upon viral infections, these anti-inflammatory effects of type I IFN could be relevant in the context of superinfections, but could also help explaining the efficacy of IFN-β in multiple sclerosis treatment.The second project addresses the role of a novel NLR family member, called NLRC5. The function of this NLR is still matter of debate, as it has been proposed as both an inhibitor and an activator of different inflammatory pathways. We found that the expression of this protein is restricted to immune cells and is positively regulated by IFNs. We generated Nlrc5-deficient mice and found that this NLR plays an essential role in Τ, NKT and, NK lymphocytes, in which it drives the expression of MHC class I molecules. Accordingly, we could show that CD8+ Τ cell-mediated killing of target lymphocytes lacking NLRC5 is strongly impaired. Moreover, NLRC5 expression was found to be low in many lymphoid- derived tumor cell lines, a mechanism that could be exploited by tumors to escape immunosurveillance.Finally, we found NLRC5 to be involved in the production of IL-10 by CD4+ Τ cells, as Nlrc5- deficient Τ lymphocytes produced less of this cytokine upon TCR triggering. In line with these observations, Mrc5-deficient CD4+ Τ cells expanded more than control cells when transferred into lymphopenic hosts and led to a more rapid appearance of colitis symptoms. Therefore, our work gives novel insights on the function of NLRC5 by using knockout mice, and strongly supports the idea that NLRs direct not only innate, but also adaptive immune responses.

Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How critical is timing for the diagnosis of influenza in general practice?

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: The diagnostic significance of clinical symptoms/signs of influenza has mainly been assessed in the context of controlled studies with stringent inclusion criteria. There was a need to extend the evaluation of these predictors not only in the context of general practice but also according to the duration of symptoms and to the dynamics of the epidemic. PRINCIPLES: A prospective study conducted in the Medical Outpatient Clinic in the winter season 1999-2000. Patients with influenza-like syndrome were included, as long as the primary care physician envisaged the diagnosis of influenza. The physician administered a questionnaire, a throat swab was performed and a culture acquired to document the diagnosis of influenza. RESULTS: 201 patients were included in the study. 52% were culture positive for influenza. By univariate analysis, temperature >37.8 degrees C (OR 4.2; 95% CI 2.3-7.7), duration of symptoms <48 hours (OR 3.2; 1.8-5.7), cough (OR 3.2; 1-10.4) and myalgia (OR 2.8; 1.0-7.5) were associated with a diagnosis of influenza. In a multivariable logistic analysis, the best model predicting influenza was the association of a duration of symptom <48 hours, medical attendance at the beginning of the epidemic (weeks 49-50), fever >37.8 and cough, with a sensitivity of 79%, specificity of 69%, positive predictive value of 67%, negative predictive value of 73% and an area under the ROC curve of 0.74. CONCLUSIONS: Besides relevant symptoms and signs, the physician should also consider the duration of symptoms and the epidemiological context (start, peak or end of the epidemic) in his appraisal, since both parameters considerably modify the value of the clinical predictors when assessing the probability of a patient having influenza.

Variation in treatment strategies of Swiss general practitioners for subclinical hypothyroidism in older adults.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: As the best management of subclinical hypothyroidism is controversial, we aimed to assess variations in treatment strategies depending on different Swiss regions, physician and patient characteristics. METHODS: We performed a case-based survey among general practitioners (GPs) in different Swiss regions, which consisted of eight hypothetical cases presenting a female patient with subclinical hypothyroidism and nonspecific complaints differing by age, vitality status and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration. RESULTS: A total of 262 GPs participated in the survey. There was considerable variation in the levothyroxine starting dose chosen by GPs, ranging from 25 µg to 100 µg. Across the Swiss regions, GPs in the Bern region were significantly more inclined to treat, with a higher probability of initiating treatment (60%, p = 0.01) and higher mean starting doses (45 µg, p <0.01) compared with the French-speaking region (44%, 36 µg); the Zurich region had intermediate values (52%, 39 µg). We found no association between treatment rate and other physician characteristics. GPs were more reluctant to initiate treatment in 85-year-old than in 70-year-old women (odds ratio [OR] 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.94), and more likely to treat women with a TSH of 15 mU/l than those with a TSH of 6mU/l (OR 8.71, 95% CI 6.21-12.20). CONCLUSIONS: There are strong variations in treatment strategies for elderly patients with subclinical hypothyroidism across different Swiss regions, including use of higher starting doses than the recommended 25 µg in the Swiss guidelines, which recommend a starting dose of 25 µg. These variations likely reflect the current uncertainty about the benefits of treatment, which arise from the current lack of evidence from adequately powered clinical trials.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.