On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Food availability dictates the timing of parturition in insectivorous mouse-eared bats

Which of these two confounding factors, weather or food availability - that largely correlate and interact - controls the timing of parturition in insectivorous bats? To answer this question. we took advantage of a predator-prey system that offers a unique opportunity to perform natural experiments. The phenology of reproduction of two sibling bat species that inhabit the same colonial roosts, but exploit different feeding niches. was investigated. Myotis myotis feeds mainly on carabid beetles, a food source available from the end of hibernation onwards, whereas bush crickets, the main prey of M. blythii, are not available early in the season due to their successive instars; cockchafers are actually the sole possible alternative prey for M. blythii at that time of the year, but they occur every third year only, independently of local weather conditions. By comparing the species responses to the presence/absence of cockchafers, we could test the hypothesis that food availability, rather than climate. influences the timing of bat parturition. Our data show that Nt. blythii gave birth, on average. 10 d later than M. myotis in years without cockchafers, whilst parturition (1) was synchronous during cockchafer years, and (2) did not show much among-year time variation in M. myotis. This suggests that food availability is the chief factor regulating the timing of parturition in mouse-eared bats.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Are alcohol outlet densities strongly associated with alcohol-related outcomes? A critical review of recent evidence.

ISSUES: There have been reviews on the association between density of alcohol outlets and harm including studies published up to December 2008. Since then the number of publications has increased dramatically. The study reviews the more recent studies with regard to their utility to inform policy. APPROACH: A systematic review found more than 160 relevant studies (published between January 2009 and October 2014). The review focused on: (i) outlet density and assaultive or intimate partner violence; (ii) studies including individual level data; or (iii) 'natural experiments'. KEY FINDINGS: Despite overall evidence for an association between density and harm, there is little evidence on causal direction (i.e. whether demand leads to more supply or increased availability increases alcohol use and harm). When outlet types (e.g. bars, supermarkets) are analysed separately, studies are too methodologically diverse and partly contradictory to permit firm conclusions besides those pertaining to high outlet densities in areas such as entertainment districts. Outlet density commonly had little effect on individual-level alcohol use, and the few 'natural experiments' on restricting densities showed little or no effects. IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: Although outlet densities are likely to be positively related to alcohol use and harm, few policy recommendations can be given as effects vary across study areas, outlet types and outlet cluster size. Future studies should examine in detail outlet types, compare different outcomes associated with different strengths of association with alcohol, analyse non-linear effects and compare different methodologies. Purely aggregate-level studies examining total outlet density only should be abandoned. [Gmel G, Holmes J, Studer J. Are alcohol outlet densities strongly associated with alcohol-related outcomes? A critical review of recent evidence. Drug Alcohol Rev 2015].

DNA binding specificity of different STAT proteins. Comparison of in vitro specificity with natural target sites.

STAT transcription factors are expressed in many cell types and bind to similar sequences. However, different STAT gene knock-outs show very distinct phenotypes. To determine whether differences between the binding specificities of STAT proteins account for these effects, we compared the sequences bound by STAT1, STAT5A, STAT5B, and STAT6. One sequence set was selected from random oligonucleotides by recombinant STAT1, STAT5A, or STAT6. For another set including many weak binding sites, we quantified the relative affinities to STAT1, STAT5A, STAT5B, and STAT6. We compared the results to the binding sites in natural STAT target genes identified by others. The experiments confirmed the similar specificity of different STAT proteins. Detailed analysis indicated that STAT5A specificity is more similar to that of STAT6 than that of STAT1, as expected from the evolutionary relationships. The preference of STAT6 for sites in which the half-palindromes (TTC) are separated by four nucleotides (N(4)) was confirmed, but analysis of weak binding sites showed that STAT6 binds fairly well to N(3) sites. As previously reported, STAT1 and STAT5 prefer N(3) sites; however, STAT5A, but not STAT1, weakly binds N(4) sites. None of the STATs bound to half-palindromes. There were no specificity differences between STAT5A and STAT5B.

Natural evidence for rapid abiogenic hydrothermal generation of CH4

Although recent hydrothermal experiments imply that abiogenic methane (CH4) generation from hydrothermal reduction of CO2 can occur, evidence from natural systems was still lacking. Based on the chemical and isotopic equilibrium signatures of low-temperature fumarolic gas discharges, we are able to provide hard evidence for its natural occurrence, namely in three subduction-related bi-phase hydrothermal systems of the Mediterranean, whose temperatures range from 260 to 470 degrees C. The attainment of equilibrium and the time spans of recent volcanic dormancy allowed us to calculate minimum rates for chemical and isotopic equilibration. These are significantly higher than those previously reported and might be due to the presence of a saturated water vapor phase in the investigated systems. The fact that nature provides conditions enabling relatively fast production of hydrocarbons from CO2 strongly supports the concerns that were recently raised from laboratory experiments. These address the use of the carbon isotope composition of reduced carbon in Archean sediments as a tracer of early life and the occurrence of CH4 on extraterrestrial planets as a bioindicator. In view of the potential role of abiogenic CH4 as a precursor of life, we also present an estimate of abiogenic hydrothermal CH4 fluxes throughout the Archean. It is not expected that these fluxes exceeded 80 Mt/yr during the past 4.0 Ga. This, however, would have been enough to facilitate HCN production on the prebiotic Earth. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal fluctuations of bacterial community diversity in agricultural soil and experimental validation by laboratory disturbance experiments.

Natural fluctuations in soil microbial communities are poorly documented because of the inherent difficulty to perform a simultaneous analysis of the relative abundances of multiple populations over a long time period. Yet, it is important to understand the magnitudes of community composition variability as a function of natural influences (e.g., temperature, plant growth, or rainfall) because this forms the reference or baseline against which external disturbances (e.g., anthropogenic emissions) can be judged. Second, definition of baseline fluctuations in complex microbial communities may help to understand at which point the systems become unbalanced and cannot return to their original composition. In this paper, we examined the seasonal fluctuations in the bacterial community of an agricultural soil used for regular plant crop production by using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism profiling (T-RFLP) of the amplified 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) gene diversity. Cluster and statistical analysis of T-RFLP data showed that soil bacterial communities fluctuated very little during the seasons (similarity indices between 0.835 and 0.997) with insignificant variations in 16S rRNA gene richness and diversity indices. Despite overall insignificant fluctuations, between 8 and 30% of all terminal restriction fragments changed their relative intensity in a significant manner among consecutive time samples. To determine the magnitude of community variations induced by external factors, soil samples were subjected to either inoculation with a pure bacterial culture, addition of the herbicide mecoprop, or addition of nutrients. All treatments resulted in statistically measurable changes of T-RFLP profiles of the communities. Addition of nutrients or bacteria plus mecoprop resulted in bacteria composition, which did not return to the original profile within 14 days. We propose that at less than 70% similarity in T-RFLP, the bacterial communities risk to drift apart to inherently different states.

Expression of killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) by natural killer cells during acute CMV infection after kidney transplantation.

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection may be a serious complication related to immunosuppression after solid organ transplantation. Due to their cytotoxicity, T-cells and natural killer (NK) cells target and clear the virus from CMV-infected cells. Although immunosuppressive drugs suppress T-cell proliferation and activation, they do not affect NK cells that are crucial for controlling the infection. The regulation of NK cells depends on a wide range of activating and inhibitory receptors such as the family of killer-cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs). Several human genetic studies have demonstrated the association of KIR genes with the clearance of infections. Since the respective activities of the different KIR proteins expressed by NK cells during CMV infection have not been extensively studied, we analyzed the expression of KIRs in a cohort of 22 CMV-IgG(+) renal transplant patients at the time of CMV reactivation, after antiviral therapy and 6 months later. Our data revealed a marked expression of KIR3DL1 during the acute phase of the reactivation. We set up an in vitro model in which NK cells, derived either from healthy donors or from transplanted patients, target allogeneic fibroblasts, CMV-infected or uninfected. Our results demonstrate a significant correlation between the lysis of CMV-infected fibroblasts and the expression of KIR3DL1. Blocking experiments with antibodies to MHC-I, to NKG2D and to NKG2C confirmed the importance of KIR3DL1. Consequently, our results suggest that KIR proteins and especially KIR3DL1 could play an important role during CMV-infection or CMV reactivation in immunosuppressed patients.

Estimation of a maximum Lu diffusion rate in a natural eclogite garnet

Lutetium zoning in garnet within eclogites from the Zermatt-Saas Fee zone, Western Alps, reveal sharp, exponentially decreasing central peaks. They can be used to constrain maximum Lu volume diffusion in garnets. A prograde garnet growth temperature interval of 450-600 A degrees C has been estimated based on pseudosection calculations and garnet-clinopyroxene thermometry. The maximum pre-exponential diffusion coefficient which fits the measured central peak is in the order of D-0= 5.7*10(-6) m(2)/s, taking an estimated activation energy of 270 kJ/mol based on diffusion experiments for other rare earth elements in garnet. This corresponds to a maximum diffusion rate of D (600 A degrees C) = 4.0*10(-22) m(2)/s. The diffusion estimate of Lu can be used to estimate the minimum closure temperature, T-c, for Sm-Nd and Lu-Hf age data that have been obtained in eclogites of the Western Alps, postulating, based on a literature review, that D (Hf) < D (Nd) < D (Sm) a parts per thousand currency sign D (Lu). T-c calculations, using the Dodson equation, yielded minimum closure temperatures of about 630 A degrees C, assuming a rapid initial exhumation rate of 50A degrees/m.y., and an average crystal size of garnets (r = 1 mm). This suggests that Sm/Nd and Lu/Hf isochron age differences in eclogites from the Western Alps, where peak temperatures did rarely exceed 600 A degrees C must be interpreted in terms of prograde metamorphism.

Natural genetic variation in Arabidopsis: tools, traits and prospects for evolutionary ecology.

BACKGROUND: The model plant Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) shows a wide range of genetic and trait variation among wild accessions. Because of its unparalleled biological and genomic resources, the potential of Arabidopsis for molecular genetic analysis of this natural variation has increased dramatically in recent years. SCOPE: Advanced genomics has accelerated molecular phylogenetic analysis and gene identification by quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping and/or association mapping in Arabidopsis. In particular, QTL mapping utilizing natural accessions is now becoming a major strategy of gene isolation, offering an alternative to artificial mutant lines. Furthermore, the genomic information is used by researchers to uncover the signature of natural selection acting on the genes that contribute to phenotypic variation. The evolutionary significance of such genes has been evaluated in traits such as disease resistance and flowering time. However, although molecular hallmarks of selection have been found for the genes in question, a corresponding ecological scenario of adaptive evolution has been difficult to prove. Ecological strategies, including reciprocal transplant experiments and competition experiments, and utilizing near-isogenic lines of alleles of interest will be a powerful tool to measure the relative fitness of phenotypic and/or allelic variants. CONCLUSIONS: As the plant model organism, Arabidopsis provides a wealth of molecular background information for evolutionary genetics. Because genetic diversity between and within Arabidopsis populations is much higher than anticipated, combining this background information with ecological approaches might well establish Arabidopsis as a model organism for plant evolutionary ecology.

Drosophila rely on learning while foraging under semi-natural conditions

Learning is predicted to affect manifold ecological and evolutionary processes, but the extent to which animals rely on learning in nature remains poorly known, especially for short-lived non-social invertebrates. This is in particular the case for Drosophila, a favourite laboratory system to study molecular mechanisms of learning. Here we tested whether Drosophila melanogaster use learned information to choose food while free-flying in a large greenhouse emulating the natural environment. In a series of experiments flies were first given an opportunity to learn which of two food odours was associated with good versus unpalatable taste; subsequently, their preference for the two odours was assessed with olfactory traps set up in the greenhouse. Flies that had experienced palatable apple-flavoured food and unpalatable orange-flavoured food were more likely to be attracted to the odour of apple than flies with the opposite experience. This was true both when the flies first learned in the laboratory and were then released and recaptured in the greenhouse, and when the learning occurred under free-flying conditions in the greenhouse. Furthermore, flies retained the memory of their experience while exploring the greenhouse overnight in the absence of focal odours, pointing to the involvement of consolidated memory. These results support the notion that even small, short lived insects which are not central-place foragers make use of learned cues in their natural environments.

Extending the canopy flow model for natural, highly flexible macrophyte canopies

Flow structures above vegetation canopies have received much attention within terrestrial and aquatic literature. This research has led to a good process understanding of mean and turbulent canopy flow structure. However, much of this research has focused on rigid or semi-rigid vegetation with relatively simple morphology. Aquatic macrophytes differ from this form, exhibiting more complex morphologies, predominantly horizontal posture in the flow and a different force balance. While some recent studies have investigated such canopies, there is still the need to examine the relevance and applicability of general canopy layer theory to these types of vegetation. Here, we report on a range of numerical experiments, using both semi-rigid and highly flexible canopies. The results for the semi-rigid canopies support existing canopy layer theory. However, for the highly flexible vegetation, the flow pattern is much more complex and suggests that a new canopy model may be required.