Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Basal and antigen-induced exposure of the proline-rich sequence in CD3ε.

The CD3ε cytoplasmic tail contains a conserved proline-rich sequence (PRS) that influences TCR-CD3 expression and signaling. Although the PRS can bind the SH3.1 domain of the cytosolic adapter Nck, whether the PRS is constitutively available for Nck binding or instead represents a cryptic motif that is exposed via conformational change upon TCR-CD3 engagement (CD3Δc) is currently unresolved. Furthermore, the extent to which a cis-acting CD3ε basic amino acid-rich stretch (BRS), with its unique phosphoinositide-binding capability, might impact PRS accessibility is not clear. In this study, we found that freshly harvested primary thymocytes expressed low to moderate basal levels of Nck-accessible PRS ("open-CD3"), although most TCR-CD3 complexes were inaccessible to Nck ("closed-CD3"). Ag presentation in vivo induced open-CD3, accounting for half of the basal level found in thymocytes from MHC(+) mice. Additional stimulation with either anti-CD3 Abs or peptide-MHC ligands further elevated open-CD3 above basal levels, consistent with a model wherein antigenic engagement induces maximum PRS exposure. We also found that the open-CD3 conformation induced by APCs outlasted the time of ligand occupancy, marking receptors that had been engaged. Finally, CD3ε BRS-phosphoinositide interactions played no role in either adoption of the initial closed-CD3 conformation or induction of open-CD3 by Ab stimulation. Thus, a basal level of open-CD3 is succeeded by a higher, induced level upon TCR-CD3 engagement, involving CD3Δc and prolonged accessibility of the CD3ε PRS to Nck.

Translation to success of surgical innovation.

Contemporary thoracic and cardiovascular surgery uses extensive equipment and devices to enable its performance. As the specialties develop and new frontiers are crossed, the technology needs to advance in a parallel fashion. Strokes of genius or problem-solving brain-storming may generate great ideas, but the metamorphosis of an idea into a physical functioning tool requires a lot more than just a thinking process. A modern surgical device is the end-point of a sophisticated, complicated and potentially treacherous route, which incorporates new skills and knowledge acquisition. Processes including technology transfer, commercialisation, corporate and product development, intellectual property and regulatory routes all play pivotal roles in this voyage. Many good ideas may fall by the wayside for a multitude of reasons as they may not be marketable or may be badly marketed. In this article, we attempt to illuminate the components required in the process of surgical innovation, which we believe must remain in the remit of the modern-day thoracic and cardiovascular surgeon.

Problems of allometric scaling analysis: examples from mammalian reproductive biology.

Biological scaling analyses employing the widely used bivariate allometric model are beset by at least four interacting problems: (1) choice of an appropriate best-fit line with due attention to the influence of outliers; (2) objective recognition of divergent subsets in the data (allometric grades); (3) potential restrictions on statistical independence resulting from phylogenetic inertia; and (4) the need for extreme caution in inferring causation from correlation. A new non-parametric line-fitting technique has been developed that eliminates requirements for normality of distribution, greatly reduces the influence of outliers and permits objective recognition of grade shifts in substantial datasets. This technique is applied in scaling analyses of mammalian gestation periods and of neonatal body mass in primates. These analyses feed into a re-examination, conducted with partial correlation analysis, of the maternal energy hypothesis relating to mammalian brain evolution, which suggests links between body size and brain size in neonates and adults, gestation period and basal metabolic rate. Much has been made of the potential problem of phylogenetic inertia as a confounding factor in scaling analyses. However, this problem may be less severe than suspected earlier because nested analyses of variance conducted on residual variation (rather than on raw values) reveals that there is considerable variance at low taxonomic levels. In fact, limited divergence in body size between closely related species is one of the prime examples of phylogenetic inertia. One common approach to eliminating perceived problems of phylogenetic inertia in allometric analyses has been calculation of 'independent contrast values'. It is demonstrated that the reasoning behind this approach is flawed in several ways. Calculation of contrast values for closely related species of similar body size is, in fact, highly questionable, particularly when there are major deviations from the best-fit line for the scaling relationship under scrutiny.