Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Correlational study: illness representations and coping styles in caregivers for individuals with schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Caring for individuals with schizophrenia can create distress for caregivers which can, in turn, have a harmful impact on patient progress. There could be a better understanding of the connections between caregivers' representations of schizophrenia and coping styles. This study aims at exploring those connections. METHODS: This correlational descriptive study was conducted with 92 caregivers of individuals suffering from schizophrenia. The participants completed three questionnaires translated and validated in French: (a) a socio-demographic questionnaire, (b) the Illness Perception Questionnaire for Schizophrenia and (c) the Family Coping Questionnaire. RESULTS: Our results show that illness representations are slightly correlated with coping styles. More specifically, emotional representations are correlated to an emotion-focused coping style centred on coercion, avoidance and resignation. CONCLUSION: Our results are coherent with the Commonsense Model of Self-Regulation of Health and Illness and should enable to develop new interventions for caregivers.

Chemistry, isotope values (δD, δ18O, δ34S(SO4)) and temperatures of the water inflows in two Gotthard tunnels, Swiss Alps

Water inflows in the Gotthard Highway Tunnel and in the Gotthard Exploration Tunnel are meteoric waters infiltrating at different elevations, on both sides of an important orographic divide. Limited interaction of meteoric waters with gneissic rocks produces Ca-HCO3 and Na-Ca-HCO3 waters, whereas prolonged interaction of meteoric waters with the same rocks generates Na-HCO3 to Na-SO4 waters. Waters circulating in Triassic carbonate-evaporite rocks have a Ca-SO4 composition. Calcium-Na-SO4 waters are also present. They can be produced through interaction of either Na-HCO3 waters with anhydrite or Ca-SO4 waters with a local gneissic rock, as suggested by reaction path modeling. An analogous simulation indicates that Na-HCO3 waters are generated through interaction of Ca-HCO3 waters with a local gneissic rock. The two main SO4-sources present in the Alps are leaching of upper Triassic sulfate minerals and oxidative dissolution of sulfide minerals of crystalline rocks. Values of delta S-34(SO4) < <similar to>+ 9 parts per thousand, are due to oxidative dissolution of sulfide minerals, whereas delta S-34(SO4) > similar to+ 9 parts per thousand are controlled either by bacterial SO4 reduction or leaching of upper Triassic sulfate minerals. Most waters have temperatures similar to the expected values for a geothermal gradient of 22 degreesC/km and are close to thermal equilibrium with rocks. However relatively large, descending flows of cold waters and ascending flows of warm waters are present in both tunnels and determine substantial cooling and heating, respectively, of the interacting rocks. The most import upflow zone of warm, Na-rich waters is below Guspisbach, in the Gotthard Highway Tunnel, at 6.2-9.0 km from the southern portal. These warm waters have equilibrium temperatures of 65-75 degreesC and therefore constitute an important low-enthalpy geothermal resource. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inhabitants' and professionals' social representations of health determinants in a disadvantaged urban area in France: a qualitative analysis = représentations sociales des déterminants de santé dans une zone urbaine défavorisée en France : analyse qualitative auprès d'habitants et de professionnels

Background and objective. - Access to care in French disadvantaged urban areas remains an issue despite the implementation of local healthcare structures. To understand this contradiction, we investigated social representations held by inhabitants of such areas, as well as those of social and healthcare professionals, regarding events or behaviours that can impact low-income individuals' health. Method. - In the context of a health diagnosis, 288 inhabitants living in five disadvantaged districts of Aix-les-Bains, as well as 28 professionals working in these districts, completed an open-ended questionnaire. The two groups of respondents were asked to describe what could have an impact on health status from the inhabitants' point of view. The textual responses were analyzed using the Alceste method. Results. - We observed a number of differences in the way the inhabitants and professionals represented determinants of health in disadvantaged urban areas: the former proposed a representation mixing personal responsibility with physiological, social, familial, and professional aspects, whereas the latter associated health issues with marginalization (financial, drug, or alcohol problems) and personal responsibility. Both inhabitants and professionals mentioned control over events and lifestyle as determinants of health. Discussion. - The results are discussed regarding the consequences of these different representations on the beneficiary - healthcare-provider relationship in terms of communication and trust.

Remediation of a marine shore tailings deposit and the importance of water-rock interaction on element cycling in the coastal aquifer

We present the study of the geochemical processes associated with the first successful remediation of a marine shore tailings deposit in a coastal desert environment (Bahia de Ite, in the Atacama Desert of Peru). The remediation approach implemented a wetland on top of the oxidized tailings. The site is characterized by a high hydrauliz gradient produced by agricultural irrigation on upstream gravel terraces that pushed river water (similar to 500 mg/L SO(4)) toward the sea and through the tailings deposit. The geochemical and isotopic (delta(2)H(water) and delta(18)O(water), delta(34)S(sulfate) , delta(18)O(sulfate)) approach applied here revealed that evaporite horizons (anhydrite and halite) in the gravel terraces are the source of increased concentrations of SO(4), Cl, and Na up to similar to 1500 mg/L in the springs at the base of the gravel terraces. Deeper groundwater interacting with underlying marine sequences increased the concentrations of SO(4), Cl, and Na up to 6000 mg/L and increased the alkalinity up to 923 mg/L CaCO(3) eq. in the coastal aquifer. These waters infiltrated into the tailings deposit at the shelf-tailings interface. Nonremediated tailings had a low-pH oxidation zone (pH 1-4) with significant accumulations of efflorescent salts (10-20 cm thick) at the surface because of upward capillary transport of metal cations in the arid climate. Remediated tailings were characterized by neutral pH and reducing conditions (pH similar to 7, Eh similar to 100 mV). As a result, most bivalent metals such as Cu, Zn, and Ni had very low concentrations (around 0.01 mg/L or below detection limit) because of reduction and sorption processes. In contrast, these reducing conditions increased the mobility of iron from two sources in this system: (1) The originally Fe(III)-rich oxidation zone, where Fe(II) was reduced during the remediation process and formed an Fe(II) plume, and (2) reductive dissolution of Fe(III) oxides present in the original shelf lithology formed an Fe-Mn plume at 10-m depth. These two Fe-rich plumes were pushed toward the shoreline where more oxidizing and higher pH conditions triggered the precipitation of Fe(HI)hydroxide coatings on silicates. These coatings acted as a filter for the arsenic, which naturally infiltrated with the river water (similar to 500 mu g/L As natural background) into the tailings deposit.

Impact of physical activity on energy balance, food intake and choice in normal weight and obese children in the setting of acute social stress: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Psychological stress negatively influences food intake and food choices, thereby contributing to the development of childhood obesity. Physical activity can also moderate eating behavior and influence calorie intake. However, it is unknown if acute physical activity influences food intake and overall energy balance after acute stress exposure in children. We therefore investigated the impact of acute physical activity on overall energy balance (food intake minus energy expenditure), food intake, and choice in the setting of acute social stress in normal weight (NW) and overweight/obese (OW/OB) children as well as the impact of psychological risk factors. METHOD: After receiving written consent from their parents, 26 NW (BMI < 90(th) percentile) and 24 7-to 11-year-old OW (n = 5)/OB (n = 19, BMI ≥ 90(th) percentile) children were randomly allocated using computer-generated numbers (1:1, after stratification for weight status) to acute moderate physical or to sedentary activity for 30 min. Afterwards, all children were exposed to an acute social stressor. Children and their parents completed self-report questionnaires. At the end of the stressor, children were allowed to eat freely from a range of 12 different foods (6 sweet/6 salty; each of low/high caloric density). Energy balance, food intake/choice and obesity-related psychological risk factors were assessed. RESULTS: Lower overall energy balance (p = 0.019) and a decreased choice of low density salty foods (p < 0.001) in NW children compared with OW/OB children was found after acute moderate physical activity but not sedentary activity. Independent of their allocation, OW/OB children ate more high density salty foods (104 kcal (34 to 173), p = 0.004) following stress. They scored higher on impulsive behavior (p = 0.005), restrained eating (p < 0.001) and parental corporal punishment (p = 0.03), but these psychological factors were not related to stress-induced food intake/choice. Positive parenting tended to be related to lower intake of sweet high density food (-132 kcal, -277 to 2, p = 0.054). CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of stress, acute moderate physical activity can address energy balance in children, a benefit which is especially pronounced in the OW/OB. Positive parenting may act as a protective factor preventing stress-induced eating of comfort food. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT01693926 The study was a pilot study of a project funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (CRSII3_147673).

Shallow-platform palaeoenvironmental conditions recorded in deep-shelf sediments: C and stable isotopes in Upper Jurassic sections of southern Germany (Oxfordian-Kimmeridgian)

A high-resolution carbon and oxygen isotope analysis of Late Oxfordian-Early Kimmeridgian deep-shelf sediments of southern Germany is combined with investigation of nannofossil assemblage composition and sedimentological interpretations in order to evaluate the impact of regional palaeoenvironmental conditions on isotopic composition of carbonates. This study suggests that carbonate mud was essentially derived from the Jura shallow platform environments and also that the isotopic signature of carbonates deposited in the Swabian Alb deep shelf indirectly expresses the palaeoenvironmental evolution of the platform. Short-term fluctuations in delta(13) C and delta(18)O are probably controlled by changes in salinity (fresh-water input versus evaporation) in platform environments. Long-term fluctuations in carbon and oxygen isotope record throughout the Late Oxfordian-Early Kimmeridgian result from the interplay of increasing temperature and decreasing humidity, which both control the trophic level. Changes from mesotrophic to oligotrophic conditions in platform environments and in the deep-shelf surface waters are inferred. During the Late Oxfordian (Bimammatum Subzone to Planula Zone), the delta(13)C curve displays a positive shift of about 1 parts per thousand, which is comparable in intensity to global perturbations of the carbon cycle. This evident isotopic shift has not been documented yet in other basinal settings. It can be reasonably explained by local palaeoenvironmental changes on the Jura platform (salinity, temperature, and nutrient availability) that controlled platform carbonate production, and the geochemistry of overlying waters. However, increasing carbonate production on the Jura platform and related positive delta(13)C shifts recorded in the Swabian Alb deep shelf are the regional signatures of climatic changes affecting other palaeogeographical domains of Europe in which the carbonate production increased throughout the Late Oxfordian. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Supporting interdisciplinary case studies: development and implementation of a joint learning environment for students in forensic science and criminal law

Scientific reporting and communication is a challenging topic for which traditional study programs do not offer structured learning activities on a regular basis. This paper reports on the development and implementation of a web application and associated learning activities that intend to raise the awareness of reporting and communication issues among students in forensic science and law. The project covers interdisciplinary case studies based on a library of written reports about forensic examinations. Special features of the web framework, in particular a report annotation tool, support the design of various individual and group learning activities that focus on the development of knowledge and competence in dealing with reporting and communication challenges in the students' future areas of professional activity.

New York City: "gilt cage" or "promised land" ? : representations of urban space in Edith Wharton and Anzia Yezierska

This thesis explores the importance of literary New York City in the urban narratives of Edith Wharton and Anzia Yezierska. It specifically looks at the Empire City of the Progressive Period when the concept of the city was not only a new theme but also very much a typical American one which was as central to the American experience as had been the Western frontier. It could be argued, in fact, that the American city had become the new frontier where modern experiences like urbanization, industrialization, immigration, and also women's emancipation and suffrage, caused all kinds of sensations on the human scale from smoothly lived assimilation and acculturation to deeply felt alienation because of the constantly shifting urban landscape. The developing urban space made possible the emergence of new female literary protagonists like the working girl, the reformer, the prostitute, and the upper class lady dedicating her life to 'conspicuous consumption'. Industrialization opened up city space to female exploration: on the one hand, upper and middle class ladies ventured out of the home because of the many novel urban possibilities, and on the other, lower class and immigrant girls also left their domestic sphere to look for paid jobs outside the home. New York City at the time was not only considered the epicenter of the world at large, it was also a city of great extremes. Everything was constantly in flux: small brownstones made way for ever taller skyscrapers and huge waves of immigrants from Europe pushed native New Yorkers further uptown on the island, adding to the crowdedness and intensity of the urban experience. The city became a polarized urban space with Fifth Avenue representing one end of the spectrum and the Lower East Side the other. Questions of space and the urban home greatly mattered. It has been pointed out that the city setting functions as an ideal means for the display of human nature as well as social processes. Narrative representations of urban space, therefore, provide a similar canvas for a protagonist's journey and development. From widely diverging vantage points both Edith Wharton and Anzia Yezierska thus create a polarized city where domesticity is a primal concern. Looking at all of their New York narratives by close readings of exterior and interior city representations, this thesis shows how urban space greatly affects questions of identity, assimilation, and alienation in literary protagonists who cannot escape the influence of their respective urban settings. Edith Wharton's upper class "millionaire" heroines are framed and contained by the city interiors of "old" New York, making it impossible for them to truly participate in the urban landscape in order to develop outside of their 'Gilt Cages'. On the other side are Anzia Yezierska's struggling "immigrant" protagonists who, against all odds, never give up in their urban context of streets, rooftops, and stoops. Their New York City, while always challenging and perpetually changing, at least allows them perspectives of hope for a 'Promised Land' in the making. Central for both urban narrative approaches is the quest for a home as an architectural structure, a spiritual resting place, and a locus for identity forming. But just as the actual city embraces change, urban protagonists must embrace change also if they desire to find fulfillment and success. That this turns out to be much easier for Anzia Yezierska's driven immigrants rather than for Edith Wharton's well established native New Yorkers is a surprising conclusion to this urban theme.

Trace-element and phosphorus contents in sediment associated with Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events

ABSTRACT : During my SNSF-funded Ph.D. thesis project, I studied the evolution of redox conditions and organic-carbon preservation in the western Tethyan realm during three major positive excursions in the Cretaceous δ13C record, corresponding to the Valanginian, Early Aptian and Late Cenomanian. These periods were characterized by important global environmental and climate change, which was associated with perturbations in the carbon cycle. For the period of the Valanginian δ13C excursion, total organic carbon (TOC) contents and the quality of preserved organic matter are typical of oxic pelagic settings in the western Tethys. This is confirmed by the absence of major excursions in the stratigraphic distribution of RSTE during the δ13C shift. Published TOC data from other parts of the Valanginian oceans indicate that dys- to anaerobic zones were restricted to marginal seas within the Atlantic and Southern Ocean, and to the Pacific. Phosphorus (P) and mineralogical contents suggest a stepwise climatic evolution during the Valanginian, with a humid and warm climate prior to the δ13C shift leading to an increase in continental runoff. During the δ13C shift, a decrease in detrital input and P contents suggests a change in the climate towards more and conditions. During the early Aptian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 1a), a general increase followed by a rapid decrease in P contents suggests enhanced nutrient input at the beginning of OAE 1a. The return to lower values during OAE 1 a, associated with an increase in RSTE contents, may have been related to the weakened capacity to retain P in the sedimentary reservoir due to bottom-water oxygen depletion. In basinal settings, the RSTE distribution indicates well-developed anoxic conditions during OAE la, whereas in the shallower-water environments, conditions were oxic to suboxic, rather than anoxic. Furthermore, in the deeper part of the Tethys, two distinct enrichments have been observed, indicating fluctuations in the intensity of water column anoxia during the δ73C excursion. We also studied the effect of the end-Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 2) on an expanded section in the Chrummflueschlucht (E of Euthal, Ct Switzerland). The goal here was to identify paleoceanographic and paleoenvironmental conditions during OAE 2 in this part of the northern Tethyan margin. The results show that this section is one of the most complete sections for the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary interval known from the Helvetic realm, despite a small hiatus between sediments corresponding to peaks 1 and 2 in the δ13C record. The evolution of P contents points to an increase in the input of this nutrient at the onset of OAE 2. The trends in RSTE contents show, however, that this part of the Helvetic realm was not affected by a strong depletion in oxygen conditions during OAE 2, despite its hemipelagic position. A further goal of this project was to submit the samples to a total extraction method (a combined HF/HNO3/HCI acid digestion) and compare the results obtained by the partial HNO3 acid extraction in order to standardize the analytical prócedures in the extraction of RSTE. The obtained results for samples of OAE 1 a suggest that RSTE trends using the partial HNO3 digestion are very comparable to those obtained by the total digestion method and subsequently normalized with regards to AI contents. RÉSUMÉ : Durant ce projet de thèse, financé par le Swiss National Science Funding (SNSF), j'ai étudié l'évolution des conditions redox et de la préservation de carbone organique dans le domnaine ouesttéthysien pendant trois excursions majeures du δ13C au Crétacé correspondant au Valanginien, à l'Aptien inférieur et à la limite Cénomanien-Turonien. Ces périodes sont caractérisées par des changements climatiques et environnementaux globaux associés à des perturbations dans le cylce du carbone. Pour L'excursion positive en δ13C du Valanginien, les analyses du carbone organique total (COT) et les observations palynologiques du domaine téthysien ont présenté des indications d'environnement pélagique relativementbienoxygéné. L'absence d'enrichissements en éléments traces sensibles aux conditions redox (TE) pendant l'excursion positive en δ13C confirme ces interprétations. Les données publiées de COT dans d'autres partie du globe indiquent cependant l'existence de conditions dys- à anaérobiques dans certains bassins restreints de l'Atlantique, l'Océan Austral et du Pacifique. L'évolution du phosphore (P) et la composition minéralogique des sédiments semblent indiquer un climat relativement chaud et humide avant l'excursion en δ13C entraînant une augmentation de l'altération continentale. Pendant le shift isotopique, une diminution des apports détritiques et du P suggèrent une transition vers des conditions plus arides. À l'Aptien Inférieur, le début de l'événement anoxique (OAE 1a) est marqué par une augmentation générale du P dans les sédiments indiquant une augmentation du niveau trophique à la base de l'excursion isotopique. Durant l'événement anoxique, les sédiments sont relativement appauvris en P. Cette diminution rapide associée à des enrichissements en TE est probablement liée à une remobilisation plus importante du P lors de la mise en place de conditions anoxiques dans les eaux de fond. Dans les environnements de bassin, le comportement des TE (enrichissements bien marqués) attestent de conditions réductrices bien marquées alors que dans les environnements moins profonds, les conditions semblent plutôt oxiques à dysoxiques. De plus, deux niveaux d'enrichissement en TE ont été observés dans la partie plus profonde de la Téthys, indiquant des fluctuations assez rapides dans l'intensité de l'anoxie de la colonne d'eau. Nous avons ensuite étudié les effets de l'événement anoxique de la fin du Cenomanien (OAE 2) dans un basin marginal de la marge nord de la Téthys avec la coupe de Chrummflueschlucht (à l'est de Euthal, Ct Schwyz). Les résultats ont montré que cette coupe présente un des enregistrements sédimentaires des plus complets de l'OAE 2 dans le domaine helvétique malgré un hiatus entre le pic 1 et 2 de l'excursion en δ13C. L'évolution du P montre une augmentation au début de l'OAE 2. Cependant, la distribution des TE indique que cette région n'a pas été affectée par des conditions réductrices trop importantes. Un second aspect de ce travail a été l'étude des différentes méthodes sur l'analyse de la distribution des TE. Des échantillons de l'OAE 1a ont été soumis à deux types d'extractions, l'une dite «totale » (attaque combinée d'acides HF/HNO3/HCI) et l'autre dite partielle » (HNO3). Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que les courbes de tendances des TE acquises par extraction partielle sont semblables à celle obtenues par extraction totale et normalisées par l'AI.

Alveolar echinococcosis: from a deadly disease to a well-controlled infection. Relative survival and economic analysis in Switzerland over the last 35 years.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a serious liver disease. The aim of this study was to explore the long-term prognosis of AE patients, the burden of this disease in Switzerland and the cost-effectiveness of treatment. METHODS: Relative survival analysis was undertaken using a national database with 329 patient records. 155 representative cases had sufficient details regarding treatment costs and patient outcome to estimate the financial implications and treatment costs of AE. RESULTS: For an average 54-year-old patient diagnosed with AE in 1970 the life expectancy was estimated to be reduced by 18.2 and 21.3 years for men and women, respectively. By 2005 this was reduced to approximately 3.5 and 2.6 years, respectively. Patients undergoing radical surgery had a better outcome, whereas the older patients had a poorer prognosis than the younger patients. Costs amount to approximately Euro108,762 per patient. Assuming the improved life expectancy of AE patients is due to modern treatment the cost per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) saved is approximately Euro6,032. CONCLUSIONS: Current treatments have substantially improved the prognosis of AE patients compared to the 1970s. The cost per DALY saved is low compared to the average national annual income. Hence, AE treatment is highly cost-effective in Switzerland.

Closeness in relationships as a mediator between sexual abuse in childhood or adolescence and psychopathological outcome in adulthood.

The risk of adverse psychological outcomes in adult victims of childhood and adolescent sexual abuse (CSA) has been documented; however, research on possible mediating variables is still required, namely with a clinical perspective. The attachment literature suggests that secure interpersonal relationships may represent such a variable. Twenty-eight women who had experienced episodes of CSA, and 16 control women, were interviewed using Bremner's Early Trauma Inventory and the DSM-IV Global Assessment of Functioning; they also responded to Collins' Relationship Scales Questionnaire, evaluating adult attachment representations in terms of Closeness, Dependence and Anxiety. Subjects with an experience of severe abuse reported significantly more interpersonal distance in relationships (low index of Closeness) than other subjects. The index of psychopathological functioning was correlated with both the severity of abuse and attachment (low index of Closeness). Regression analysis on the sample of abused women revealed that attachment predicted psychopathology when abuse was controlled for, whereas abuse did not predict psychopathology when attachment was controlled for. Therefore, preserving a capacity for closeness with attachment figures in adulthood appears to mediate the consequences of CSA on subsequent psychopathological outcome.