Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Development of a method to investigate the hydrolysis of xenobiotic esters by a Mycobacterium smegmatis homogenate.

One of the main problems in combating tuberculosis is caused by a poor penetration of drugs into the mycobacterial cells. A prodrug approach via activation inside mycobacterial cells is a possible strategy to overcome this hurdle and achieve efficient drug uptake. Esters are attractive candidates for such a strategy and we and others communicated previously the activity of esters of weak organic acids against mycobacteria. However very little is known about ester hydrolysis by mycobacteria and no biological model is available to study the activation of prodrugs by these microorganisms. To begin filling this gap, we have embarked in a project to develop an in vitro method to study prodrug activation by mycobacteria using Mycobacterium smegmatis homogenates. Model ester substrates were ethyl nicotinate and ethyl benzoate whose hydrolysis was monitored and characterized kinetically. Our studies showed that in M. smegmatis most esterase activity is associated with the soluble fraction (cytosol) and is preserved by storage at 5°C or at room temperature for one hour, or by storage at -80°C up to one year. In the range of homogenate concentrations studied (5-80% in buffer), k(obs) varied linearly with homogenate concentration for both substrates. We also found that the homogenates showed Michaelis-Menten kinetics behavior with both prodrugs. Since ethyl benzoate is a good substrate for the mycobacterial esterases, this compound can be used to standardize the esterasic activity of homogenates, allowing results of incubations of prodrugs with homogenates from different batches to be readily compared.

Modulation of the gap junction protein Connexin36 in neurons in a mouse model of transient focalcerebral ischemia

Intercellular communication is achieved at specialized regions of the plasma membrane by¦gap junctions. Gap junctions are transmembrane channels allowing direct contacts between¦the cytoplasms of neighboring cells. Each cell participates with one hemichannel, or¦connexon, made of six protein subunits named connexins. Thanks to these junctions, cells¦potentially share a pool of small molecules and metabolites, such as nucleotides, amino acids¦and second messengers.¦In an ischemic (i.e. non-perfused) territory of the brain, irreversible damage progresses over¦time from the centre of the most severe flow reduction to the periphery with less disturbed¦perfusion. Functionally impaired tissue can survive and recover if sufficient reperfusion is reestablished¦within a limited time period, which depends on various factors and mechanisms¦modulating the signaling pathways leading to cell death.¦Observations were made indicating the presence of electrical coupling between neurons which¦resist better to an ischemic insult. This electrical coupling is likely to be mediated by¦Connexin36 (Cx36), a neuron specific connexin isoform. It was demonstrated in the past that¦global ischemia induces a selective upregulation of Cx36 expression in regions with neurons¦that survive the insult whereas others undergo apoptosis and die. These observations raise the¦possibility that the neuronal gap junction Cx36 might play a role in the destiny of neurons¦after cerebral ischemia.¦The aim of this work was to characterize the regulation of Connexin36 in a mouse model of¦transient focal cerebral ischemia by immunofluorescence and Western blot analysis. Our¦immunofluorescence results suggest a specific increase in Cx36 in the penumbral region of¦the ischemic hemisphere.

The gap between scientific evidence and clinical practice : 5-aminosalicylates are frequently used for the treatment of Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND: There is uncertain evidence of effectiveness of 5-aminosalicylates (5-ASA) to induce and maintain response and remission of active Crohn's disease (CD), and weak evidence to support their use in post-operative CD. AIM: To assess the frequency and determinants of 5-ASA use in CD patients and to evaluate the physicians' perception of clinical response and side effects to 5-ASA. METHODS: Data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort, which collects data since 2006 on a large sample of IBD patients, were analysed. Information from questionnaires regarding utilisation of treatments and perception of response to 5-ASA were evaluated. Logistic regression modelling was performed to identify factors associated with 5-ASA use. RESULTS: Of 1420 CD patients, 835 (59%) were ever treated with 5-ASA from diagnosis to latest follow-up. Disease duration >10 years and colonic location were both significantly associated with 5-ASA use. 5-ASA treatment was judged to be successful in 46% (378/825) of treatment episodes (physician global assessment). Side effects prompting stop of therapy were found in 12% (98/825) episodes in which 5-ASA had been stopped. CONCLUSIONS: 5-Aminosalicylates were frequently prescribed in patients with Crohn's disease in the Swiss IBD cohort. This observation stands in contrast to the scientific evidence demonstrating a very limited role of 5-ASA compounds in the treatment of Crohn's disease.

Regulation of membrane trafficking and organ separation by the NEVERSHED ARF-GAP protein.

Cell separation, or abscission, is a highly specialized process in plants that facilitates remodeling of their architecture and reproductive success. Because few genes are known to be essential for organ abscission, we conducted a screen for mutations that alter floral organ shedding in Arabidopsis. Nine recessive mutations that block shedding were found to disrupt the function of an ADP-ribosylation factor-GTPase-activating protein (ARF-GAP) we have named NEVERSHED (NEV). As predicted by its homology to the yeast Age2 ARF-GAP and transcriptional profile, NEV influences other aspects of plant development, including fruit growth. Co-localization experiments carried out with NEV-specific antiserum and a set of plant endomembrane markers revealed that NEV localizes to the trans-Golgi network and endosomes in Arabidopsis root epidermal cells. Interestingly, transmission electron micrographs of abscission zone regions from wild-type and nev flowers reveal defects in the structure of the Golgi apparatus and extensive accumulation of vesicles adjacent to the cell walls. Our results suggest that NEV ARF-GAP activity at the trans-Golgi network and distinct endosomal compartments is required for the proper trafficking of cargo molecules required for cell separation.

Collagen (NeuraGen®) nerve conduits and stem cells for peripheral nerve gap repair.

Collagen nerve guides are used clinically for peripheral nerve defects, but their use is generally limited to lesions up to 3 cm. In this study we combined collagen conduits with cells as an alternative strategy to support nerve regeneration over longer gaps. In vitro cell adherence to collagen conduits (NeuraGen(®) nerve guides) was assessed by scanning electron microscopy. For in vivo experiments, conduits were seeded with either Schwann cells (SC), SC-like differentiated bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (dMSC), SC-like differentiated adipose-derived stem cells (dASC) or left empty (control group), conduits were used to bridge a 1cm gap in the rat sciatic nerve and after 2-weeks immunohistochemical analysis was performed to assess axonal regeneration and SC infiltration. The regenerative cells showed good adherence to the collagen walls. Primary SC showed significant improvement in distal stump sprouting. No significant differences in proximal regeneration distances were noticed among experimental groups. dMSC and dASC-loaded conduits showed a diffuse sprouting pattern, while SC-loaded showed an enhanced cone pattern and a typical sprouting along the conduits walls, suggesting an increased affinity for the collagen type I fibrillar structure. NeuraGen(®) guides showed high affinity of regenerative cells and could be used as efficient vehicle for cell delivery. However, surface modifications (e.g. with extracellular matrix molecule peptides) of NeuraGen(®) guides could be used in future tissue-engineering applications to better exploit the cell potential.

A Public Service Gap: Capturing Contexts in a Comparative Approach of Street-Level Bureaucracy

Studies of street-level bureaucracy have introduced a variety of conceptualizations, research approaches, and causal inferences. While this research has produced several insights, the impact of variety in the institutional context has not been adequately explored. We present the construct of a public service gap as a way to incorporate contextual factors and facilitate comparison. This construct addresses the differences between what is asked of and what is offered to public servants working at the street level. The heuristic enables the systematic capture of macro- and meso-contextual influences, thus enhancing comparative research on street-level bureaucracy.

Regulation of the vascular gap junctions in a mouse model of intimal hyperplasia

Objective: Intimal hyperplasia (IH) is one of the leading causes of failure¦after vascular interventions. It involves the proliferation of smooth muscle¦cells (SMCs) and the production of extracellular fibrous matrix. Gap junctional¦communication, mediated by membrane connexins (Cx), participates to the¦control of proliferation and migration. In human and mice vessels, endothelial¦cells (ECs) express Cx37, Cx40 and Cx43, whereas SMCs are coupled by Cx43.¦We previously reported that Cx43 was increased in the SMCs of a human vein¦during the development of IH.¦In our experimental model of mice carotid artery ligation (CAL), luminal¦narrowing occurred by SMCs-rich neointima after 2-4 weeks of ligation.¦This experimental model of mice allows us to decipher the regulation of the¦cardiovascular connexins in the mouse.¦Methods: C57BL/6 mice were anesthetized and the left common carotid artery¦was dissected through a neck incision and ligated near the carotid bifurcation.¦The mice were then euthanized at 7, 14 and 28 days. Morphometric analyses¦were then performed with measurements of total area, lumen and intimal area¦and media thickness. Western blots, immunocytochemistry and quantitative¦RT-PCR were performed for Cx43, Cx40 and Cx37.¦Results: All animals recovered with no symptom of stroke. Morphometric¦analysis demonstrated that carotid ligation resulted in an initial increase (after¦7 days) of the total vessel area followed by its reduction (after 28 days). This¦phenomena was associated with a progressive increase in the intimal area and a¦consecutive decrease of the lumen. The media thickness was also increased after¦14 and 28 days. This neointima formation was associated to a marked increase¦in the expression of Cx43 at both protein and RNA levels. Concomitantly,¦Cx40 and Cx37 protein expression were reduced in the endothelium. This was¦confirmed by en face analyses showing reduced Cx37 and Cx40 levels in the¦endothelial cells covering the lesion.¦Conclusion: This study assessed the regulation of the cardiovascular connexins¦in the development of IH. This model will allow us to characterize the¦involvement of gap junctions in the IH. In turn, this understanding is¦instrumental for the development of new therapeutical tools, as well as for¦the evaluation of the effects of drugs and gene therapies of this disease for which¦there is no efficient therapy available.

Hypertension differentially affects the expression of the gap junction protein connexin43 in cardiac myocytes and aortic smooth muscle cells.

Electrical and mechanical coupling of myocytes in heart and of smooth muscle cells in the aortic wall is thought to be mediated by intercellular channels aggregated at gap junctions. Connexin43 (Cx43) is one of the predominant membrane proteins forming junctional channels in the cardiovascular system. This study was undertaken to assess its expression during experimental hypertension. Rats were made hypertensive by clipping one renal artery (two-kidney, one-clip renal hypertension) or by administering deoxycorticosterone and salt (DOCA-salt hypertension). After four weeks, rats from both models showed a similar increase in intra-arterial mean blood pressure, as well as in the thickness of both aorta and heart walls. Northern blot analysis showed that, compared to controls, hypertensive rats expressed twice more Cx43 in aorta, but not in heart. These results suggest that localized mechanical forces induced by hypertension are major tissue-specific regulators of Cx43 expression.

The Swiss Willensnation at Risk: Teachers in the Cultural Gap during the First World War

As a neutral and multilingual country, Switzerland struggled with major domestic political conflicts during the First World War due to the two cultures of the French-speaking and German-speaking parts of the country. The divided cultural loyalties ('fossé moral', 'Röstigraben'), consisting of Swiss-Germans supporting Germany and Swiss-French supporting France, were discussed intensively in both of the main teachers' journals in Switzerland. Teachers felt the need to react and to promote unity from the beginning of the war. Despite the fact that the cantons are responsible for public education and, therefore, for the education of their students, teachers considered themselves called to educate their students to be national citizens rather than to be members of a language group. This threefold citizenship - communal, cantonal and national - was not scrutinised, but national unity became crucial due to the critical political circumstances. How did teachers promote and constitute citizenship for themselves and for their students in a nation united by free will during the First World War, a time of severe internal political conflicts?