Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Radiographic total disc replacement angle measurement accuracy using the Oxford Cobbometer: precision and bias.

Total disc replacement (TDR) clinical success has been reported to be related to the residual motion of the operated level. Thus, accurate measurement of TDR range of motion (ROM) is of utmost importance. One commonly used tool in measuring ROM is the Oxford Cobbometer. Little is known however on its accuracy (precision and bias) in measuring TDR angles. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the Cobbometer to accurately measure radiographic TDR angles. An anatomically accurate synthetic L4-L5 motion segment was instrumented with a CHARITE artificial disc. The TDR angle and anatomical position between L4 and L5 was fixed to prohibit motion while the motion segment was radiographically imaged in various degrees of rotation and elevation, representing a sample of possible patient placement positions. An experienced observer made ten readings of the TDR angle using the Cobbometer at each different position. The Cobbometer readings were analyzed to determine measurement accuracy at each position. Furthermore, analysis of variance was used to study rotation and elevation of the motion segment as treatment factors. Cobbometer TDR angle measurements were most accurate (highest precision and lowest bias) at the centered position (95.5%), which placed the TDR directly inline with the x-ray beam source without any rotation. In contrast, the lowest accuracy (75.2%) was observed in the most rotated and off-centered view. A difference as high as 4 degrees between readings at any individual position, and as high as 6 degrees between all the positions was observed. Furthermore, the Cobbometer was unable to detect the expected trend in TDR angle projection with changing position. Although the Cobbometer has been reported to be reliable in different clinical applications, it lacks the needed accuracy to measure TDR angles and ROM. More accurate ROM measurement methods need to be developed to help surgeons and researchers assess radiological success of TDRs.

Artifacts in the analysis of thioridazine and other neuroleptics.

Although the sensitivity to light of thioridazine and its metabolites has been described, the problem does not seem to be widely acknowledged. Indeed, a survey of the literature shows that assays of these compounds under light-protected conditions have been performed only in a few of the numerous analytical studies on this drug. In the present study, thioridazine, its metabolites, and 18 other neuroleptics were tested for their sensitivity to light under conditions used for their analysis. The results show that light significantly affects the analysis of thioridazine and its metabolites. It readily causes the racemization of the isomeric pairs of thioridazine 5-sulphoxide and greatly decreases the concentration of thioridazine. This sensitivity to light varied with the medium used (most sensitive in acidic media) and also with the molecule (in order of decreasing sensitivity: thioridazine > mesoridazine > sulforidazine). Degradation in neutral or basic media was slow, with the exception of mesoridazine in a neutral medium. Twelve other phenothiazines tested, as well as chlorprotixene, a thioxanthene drug, were found to be sensitive to light in acidic media, whereas flupenthixol and zuclopenthixol (two thioxanthenes), clozapine, fluperlapine, and haloperidol (a butyrophenone) did not seem to be affected. In addition to being sensitive to light, some compounds may be readily oxidized by peroxide-containing solvents.

Late Pan-African magmatism in the Himalaya: new geochronological and geochemical data from the Ordovician Tso Morari metagranites (Ladakh, NW India)

Two granitic plutons, the Tso Morari gneiss and the Rupshu metagranite, crop out in the Tso Morari area. The Polokongka La granite, classically interpreted as a young intrusion in the Tso Morari gneiss, has been recognized as the undeformed facies of the latter. Conventional isotope dilution U-Pb zircon dating on single-grain and small multi-grain fractions yielded magmatic ages of 479 +/- 2 Ma for the Tso Morari gneiss and the Polokongka La granite, and 482.5 +/- 1 Ma for the Rupshu granite. There is a great difference in zircon morphology between the Tso Morari gneiss (peraluminous type) and the Rupshu granite (alkaline type). This difference is confirmed by whole-rock chemistry. The Tso Morari gneiss is a typical deformed S-type granite, resulting from crustal anatexis. On the other hand, the Rupshu granite is an essentially metaluminous alkali-calcic intrusion derived from a different source material. Data compilation from other Himalayan Cambro-Ordovician granites reveals huge and widespread magmatic activity all along and beyond the northern Indian plate between 570 and 450 Ma, with a peak at 500-480 Ma. A major, continental-scale tectonic event is required to generate such a large magmatic belt; it has been tentatively compared to the Variscan post-orogenic extensional regime of Western Europe, as a late evolution stage of a Pan-African orogenic event.

Food for thought: the importance of glucose and other energy substrates for sustaining brain function under varying levels of activity.

The brain requires a constant and substantial energy supply to maintain its main functions. For decades, it was assumed that glucose was the major if not the only significant source of energy for neurons. This view was supported by the expression of specific facilitative glucose transporters on cerebral blood vessels, as well as neurons. Despite the fact that glucose remains a key energetic substrate for the brain, growing evidence suggests a different scenario. Thus astrocytes, a major type of glial cells that express their own glucose transporter, play a critical role in coupling synaptic activity with glucose utilization. It was shown that glutamatergic activity triggers an enhancement of aerobic glycolysis in this cell type. As a result, lactate is provided to neurons as an additional energy substrate. Indeed, lactate has proven to be a preferential energy substrate for neurons under various conditions. A family of proton-linked carriers known as monocarboxylate transporters has been described and specific members have been found to be expressed by endothelial cells, astrocytes and neurons. Moreover, these transporters are subject to fine regulation of their expression levels and localization, notably in neurons, which suggests that lactate supply could be adjusted as a function of their level of activity. Considering the importance of energetics in the aetiology of several neurodegenerative diseases, a better understanding of its cellular and molecular underpinnings might have important implications for the future development of neuroprotective strategies.

Reactions and enzymes in the metabolism of drugs and other xenobiotics.

In this article, we offer an overview of the compared quantitative importance of biotransformation reactions in the metabolism of drugs and other xenobiotics, based on a meta-analysis of current research interests. Also, we assess the relative significance the enzyme (super)families or categories catalysing these reactions. We put the facts unveiled by the analysis into a drug discovery context and draw some implications. The results confirm the primary role of cytochrome P450-catalysed oxidations and UDP-glucuronosyl-catalysed glucuronidations, but they also document the marked significance of several other reactions. Thus, there is a need for several drug discovery scientists to better grasp the variety of drug metabolism reactions and enzymes and their consequences.

Comparison of central macular thickness (CMT) measurement between time domain and spectral domain (SD) optical coherence tomography (OCT) and reproducibility of SD OCT in active neovascular AMD

Purpose: To evaluate the reproducibility of Cirrus-SD OCT measurements and to compare central macular thickness (CMT) measurements between TD-Stratus and SD-Cirrus OCT in patients with active exudative AMD. Methods: Consecutive case series of patients with active exudative AMD seen in the Medical Retina Department. Patients underwent 1 scan with Stratus (macular thickness map protocol) and 5 scans with Cirrus (Macular Cube protocol) at the same visit by the same experienced examiner. To be included, patients best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) had to be >20/200 while all scans had to be of sufficient quality, well-centered and at least one Cirrus scan with CMT >300 microns. The repeatability of the SD Cirrus was estimated by using all 5 CMT measurements and the mean of the Cirrus measurements was compared with the CMT obtained by TD Stratus. Results: Cirrus OCT demonstrated high intraobserver repeatability at the central foveal region (ICC 96%). The mean of the CMT measurements was 321microns for Stratus and 387 microns for Cirrus. The average difference was 65m (SD=30). The coefficient of concordance between Stratus and Cirrus CMT measurements was rho=0,749 with a high precision and a moderate accuracy. The equation of the line of regression between Stratus and meanCirrus is given by the following: M_stratus = 0,848 x m_cirrus - 4,496 (1).Conclusions: The Cirrus macular cube protocol allows reproducible CMT measurements in patients with active exudative AMD. In cases of upgrading from TD to SD use and vice versa, there is the possibility to predict the measurements by using the equation (1). These real life data and conclusions can help in improving our clinical management of patients with neovascular AMD.

Optimal robust estimates using the Hellinger distance

Optimal robust M-estimates of a multidimensional parameter are described using Hampel's infinitesimal approach. The optimal estimates are derived by minimizing a measure of efficiency under the model, subject to a bounded measure of infinitesimal robustness. To this purpose we define measures of efficiency and infinitesimal sensitivity based on the Hellinger distance.We show that these two measures coincide with similar ones defined by Yohai using the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and therefore the corresponding optimal estimates coincide too.We also give an example where we fit a negative binomial distribution to a real dataset of "days of stay in hospital" using the optimal robust estimates.

Assessment of driving capability through the use of clinical and psychomotor tests in relation to blood cannabinoids levels following oral administration of 20 mg dronabinol or of a cannabis decoction made with 20 or 60 mg Delta9-THC.

Delta(9)-Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is frequently found in the blood of drivers suspected of driving under the influence of cannabis or involved in traffic crashes. The present study used a double-blind crossover design to compare the effects of medium (16.5 mg THC) and high doses (45.7 mg THC) of hemp milk decoctions or of a medium dose of dronabinol (20 mg synthetic THC, Marinol on several skills required for safe driving. Forensic interpretation of cannabinoids blood concentrations were attempted using the models proposed by Daldrup (cannabis influencing factor or CIF) and Huestis and coworkers. First, the time concentration-profiles of THC, 11-hydroxy-Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (11-OH-THC) (active metabolite of THC), and 11-nor-9-carboxy-Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) in whole blood were determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry-negative ion chemical ionization. Compared to smoking studies, relatively low concentrations were measured in blood. The highest mean THC concentration (8.4 ng/mL) was achieved 1 h after ingestion of the strongest decoction. Mean maximum 11-OH-THC level (12.3 ng/mL) slightly exceeded that of THC. THCCOOH reached its highest mean concentration (66.2 ng/mL) 2.5-5.5 h after intake. Individual blood levels showed considerable intersubject variability. The willingness to drive was influenced by the importance of the requested task. Under significant cannabinoids influence, the participants refused to drive when they were asked whether they would agree to accomplish several unimportant tasks, (e.g., driving a friend to a party). Most of the participants reported a significant feeling of intoxication and did not appreciate the effects, notably those felt after drinking the strongest decoction. Road sign and tracking testing revealed obvious and statistically significant differences between placebo and treatments. A marked impairment was detected after ingestion of the strongest decoction. A CIF value, which relies on the molar ratio of main active to inactive cannabinoids, greater than 10 was found to correlate with a strong feeling of intoxication. It also matched with a significant decrease in the willingness to drive, and it matched also with a significant impairment in tracking performances. The mathematic model II proposed by Huestis et al. (1992) provided at best a rough estimate of the time of oral administration with 27% of actual values being out of range of the 95% confidence interval. The sum of THC and 11-OH-THC blood concentrations provided a better estimate of impairment than THC alone. This controlled clinical study points out the negative influence on fitness to drive after medium or high dose oral THC or dronabinol.

Similarities and dissimilarities between the Movement ABC-2 and the Zurich Neuromotor Assessment in children with suspected developmental coordination disorder.

An established tool for the assessment of motor performance in children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) is the Movement-ABC-2 (M-ABC-2). The Zurich Neuromotor Assessment (ZNA) is also widely used for the evaluation of children's motor performance, but has not been compared with the M-ABC-2. Fifty-one children (39 males) between 5 and 7 years of age with suspected DCD were assessed using the M-ABC-2 and the ZNA. Rank correlations between scores of different test components were calculated. The structure of the tests was explored using canonical-correlation analysis. The correlation between total scores of the two motor tests was reasonable (0.66; p<0.001). However, ZNA scores were generally lower than those of M-ABC-2, due to poor performance in the fine motor adaptive component and increased contralateral associated movements (CAM). The canonical-correlation analysis revealed that ZNA measures components like pure motor skills and CAM that are not represented in the M-ABC-2. Furthermore, there was also no equivalent for the aiming and catching items of the M-ABC-2 in ZNA. The two tests measure different motor characteristics in children with suspected DCD and, thus, can be used complementary for the diagnosis of the disorder.

The estimation of PMP and PMF on alpine basins in Switzerland

This paper presents a very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of precipitation and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the flood on a catchment area, using a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) leading to a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flows, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the exfiltration and the snowmelt. This model was applied to several Swiss basins using measured rain, with results showing a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation proves that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type. In this article we present some results obtained using a PMP rainfall and the developed model.

Population specific and up to date cardiovascular risk charts can be efficiently obtained with record linkage of routine and observational data.

BACKGROUND: Only few countries have cohorts enabling specific and up-to-date cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. Individual risk assessment based on study samples that differ too much from the target population could jeopardize the benefit of risk charts in general practice. Our aim was to provide up-to-date and valid CVD risk estimation for a Swiss population using a novel record linkage approach. METHODS: Anonymous record linkage was used to follow-up (for mortality, until 2008) 9,853 men and women aged 25-74 years who participated in the Swiss MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CVD) study of 1983-92. The linkage success was 97.8%, loss to follow-up 1990-2000 was 4.7%. Based on the ESC SCORE methodology (Weibull regression), we used age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, and cholesterol to generate three models. We compared the 1) original SCORE model with a 2) recalibrated and a 3) new model using the Brier score (BS) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Based on the cross-validated BS, the new model (BS = 14107×10(-6)) was somewhat more appropriate for risk estimation than the original (BS = 14190×10(-6)) and the recalibrated (BS = 14172×10(-6)) model. Particularly at younger age, derived absolute risks were consistently lower than those from the original and the recalibrated model which was mainly due to a smaller impact of total cholesterol. CONCLUSION: Using record linkage of observational and routine data is an efficient procedure to obtain valid and up-to-date CVD risk estimates for a specific population.

Cannabis use and other illicit drug use: Do subjective experiences during first cannabis use increase the probability of using illicit drug use?

Background and aims: Few studies have examined whether subjective experiences during first cannabis use are related to other illicit drug (OID) use. This study investigated this topic. Methods: Baseline data from a representative sample of young Swiss men was obtained from an ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (N ¼ 5753). Logistic regressions were performed to examine the relationships between cannabis use and of subjective experiences during first cannabis use with 15 OID. Results: Positive experiences increased the likelihood of using hallucinogens (hallucinogens, salvia divinorum, spice; p50.015), stimulants (speed, ecstasy, cocaine, amphetamines/methamphetamines; p50.006) and also poppers, research chemicals, GHB/GBL, and crystal meth (p50.049). Sniffed drugs (poppers, solvents for sniffing) and ''hard'' drugs (heroin, ketamine, research chemicals, GHB/GBL and crystal meth) were more likely to be used by participants who experienced negative feelings on first use of cannabis (p50.034). Conclusion: Subjective feelings seemed to amplify the association of cannabis with OID. The risk increased for drugs with effects resembling feelings experienced on first cannabis use. Negative experiences should also be a concern, as they were associated with increased risk of using the ''hardest'' illicit drugs.