Life expectancy with and without disability

Average life expectancy reached 78.8 years in Europe in 2002 (WHO 2003); most Europeans can, therefore, now anticipate living well past 75 years of age. Projections in industrialized nations suggest a continuing mortality decline in the next decades 1 while birth rates will probably continue to decline, resulting in further ageing of these nations. As those aged 80 years and over are the fastest expanding segment of the older population, concerns are growing about a potential dramatic increase in the number of disabled persons. The ageing of the population and the related increase in chronic disease burden have already had major impacts on most Western health-care systems, and will probably further affect these systems in the future as the baby-boom generation becomes older. For instance, in Switzerland, it is estimated that costs due to long-term care could more than double by 2030, from 6.5 to 15.3 billion SFr.2 Similar trends are expected in most European countries. As a consequence, postponement of the onset of disability, with a compression of functional dependency into a shorter period towards the end of life, is becoming a major goal. To successfully achieve this goal and improve the control of growing health and social care expenditures, various strategies of health promotion and disease prevention are developed and tested. Although several of these experiences had some effects on functional decline and institutional placement, they have not been shown to be cost-effective. Additional strategies are, therefore, needed to prevent or delay the onset of disability in older persons, reduce functional impairment, and face the challenge of an increasing disabled elderly population.

Maladies cardiovasculaires: une cible de prévention pour contrecarrer les effets de l'évolution démographique [Cardiovascular diseases: a target for prevention to thwart the effects of population aging]

The prevalence of cardiovascular diseases is high in the old age. These conditions have a negative impact on the quality of life and are associated with a high risk of disability. A marked increase in the number of affected individuals is likely, in coming decades, with population aging. Primary cardiovascular prevention, but also an early recognition of subclinical heart diseases and secondary and tertiary prevention will be of up most importance for individuals (quality of life) and for societies (burden of functional impairments) as the baby-boom generation reaches retirement age.

Medical demography and intergenerational inequalities in general practitioners' earnings

This article examines the link between restrictions on the number of physicians and general practitioners' (GPs) earnings. Using a representative panel of 6016 French self-employed GPs over the years 1983-2004, we estimate an earnings function to identify experience, time and cohort effects. The estimated gap in earnings between 'good' and 'bad' cohorts can be as large as 25%. GPs who began their practices during the eighties have the lowest permanent earnings: they belong to the large cohorts of the baby-boom and face the consequences of an unlimited number of places in medical schools. Conversely, the decrease in the number of places in medical schools led to an increase in permanent earnings of GPs who began their practices in the mid-nineties. A stochastic dominance analysis shows that unobserved heterogeneity does not compensate for average differences in earnings between cohorts. These findings suggest that the first years of practice are decisive for a GP. If competition between physicians is too intense at the beginning of their careers, they will suffer from permanently lower earnings. To conclude, our results show that the policies aimed at reducing the number of medical students succeeded in buoying up physicians' permanent earnings. [Ed.]

A case study of landslides and coping strategies in two villages of central-eastern Nepal

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal's Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.

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Die auJlerkörperliche Erfaltrung (AKE) hat in den letztenJahren Forscher vieler Fachrichtungen beschäftigt. Vor allem hat das Verständnis der Neurowissenschaften und experimentellen Psychologie zu diesem Boom entscheidend beigetragen. Um zu verdeutlichen, wie bereits wenige klinische Studien ein Feld verändern können, werden im Folgenden phänomenologische, neurologische, psychophysiologische, experimentelle und pharmakologische Studien zur AKE aufgefi:hrt, vor allem jene der Ietzten 20 Jahre. Von besonderer Bedeutung werden Hirnstimulationsstudien bei Patienten mit Epilepsie sein, da bei diesen Patienten das Hirn bei vollem Bewusstsein direk elektrisch stimuliert wird, Weiterhin werden Studien zur AKE vorgestellt, die Hirnströme bei Gesunden und Patienten messen; hinzu kommen Studien, mit denen versucht wird, den Ort einer Hirnschädigung mit dem Auftreten von AKE in Verbindung zu bringen, Die Schlussfolgerungen aus diesen Studien und aus experimentellen Verhaltensstudien sollen aufzeigen, dass man ein zuvor mystifiziertes Phänomen untersuchen kann, aber dass es einen genaueren Anhaltspunkt benötigt, anhand dessen man gezielt Studien planen und durchfi.rhren kann. Ebenfalls soll aufgezeigt werden, welche vielen Fragen zu diesem Phänomen noch immer offen sind und die Forschenden mindestens weitere 20 Jaltre beschäftigen werden.

Cigarette et affiche publicitaire: histoire d'une liaison dangereuse durant les Trente Glorieuses

The advertising poster's main characteristic is the ability to convey a commercial message quickly and publicly thanks to its straightforward image and text. The young people, being the tobacco industry's principal target, are particularly exposed to these messages. This kind of advertisement becomes a mean of counterstroke as soon as the cigarette's harmfulness is acknowledged. Some of the cigarette industry's strategies can be revealed by the historical analysis of a 253 posters corpus selected among the main cigarette manufacturers in Switzerland at the time of the post-war economic boom. With the misuse of sport's theme, the overvaluation of the filter's efficiency, the use of a vocabulary that implies lightness and by erasing the image of smoke in its advertisement, the industry tries to reassure the smoker wrongly.