Analysis and spatial modeling of the indoor radon Swiss data

The present research deals with an important public health threat, which is the pollution created by radon gas accumulation inside dwellings. The spatial modeling of indoor radon in Switzerland is particularly complex and challenging because of many influencing factors that should be taken into account. Indoor radon data analysis must be addressed from both a statistical and a spatial point of view. As a multivariate process, it was important at first to define the influence of each factor. In particular, it was important to define the influence of geology as being closely associated to indoor radon. This association was indeed observed for the Swiss data but not probed to be the sole determinant for the spatial modeling. The statistical analysis of data, both at univariate and multivariate level, was followed by an exploratory spatial analysis. Many tools proposed in the literature were tested and adapted, including fractality, declustering and moving windows methods. The use of Quan-tité Morisita Index (QMI) as a procedure to evaluate data clustering in function of the radon level was proposed. The existing methods of declustering were revised and applied in an attempt to approach the global histogram parameters. The exploratory phase comes along with the definition of multiple scales of interest for indoor radon mapping in Switzerland. The analysis was done with a top-to-down resolution approach, from regional to local lev¬els in order to find the appropriate scales for modeling. In this sense, data partition was optimized in order to cope with stationary conditions of geostatistical models. Common methods of spatial modeling such as Κ Nearest Neighbors (KNN), variography and General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) were proposed as exploratory tools. In the following section, different spatial interpolation methods were applied for a par-ticular dataset. A bottom to top method complexity approach was adopted and the results were analyzed together in order to find common definitions of continuity and neighborhood parameters. Additionally, a data filter based on cross-validation was tested with the purpose of reducing noise at local scale (the CVMF). At the end of the chapter, a series of test for data consistency and methods robustness were performed. This lead to conclude about the importance of data splitting and the limitation of generalization methods for reproducing statistical distributions. The last section was dedicated to modeling methods with probabilistic interpretations. Data transformation and simulations thus allowed the use of multigaussian models and helped take the indoor radon pollution data uncertainty into consideration. The catego-rization transform was presented as a solution for extreme values modeling through clas-sification. Simulation scenarios were proposed, including an alternative proposal for the reproduction of the global histogram based on the sampling domain. The sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) was presented as the method giving the most complete information, while classification performed in a more robust way. An error measure was defined in relation to the decision function for data classification hardening. Within the classification methods, probabilistic neural networks (PNN) show to be better adapted for modeling of high threshold categorization and for automation. Support vector machines (SVM) on the contrary performed well under balanced category conditions. In general, it was concluded that a particular prediction or estimation method is not better under all conditions of scale and neighborhood definitions. Simulations should be the basis, while other methods can provide complementary information to accomplish an efficient indoor radon decision making.

Brain lactate kinetics: Modeling evidence for neuronal lactate uptake upon activation.

A critical issue in brain energy metabolism is whether lactate produced within the brain by astrocytes is taken up and metabolized by neurons upon activation. Although there is ample evidence that neurons can efficiently use lactate as an energy substrate, at least in vitro, few experimental data exist to indicate that it is indeed the case in vivo. To address this question, we used a modeling approach to determine which mechanisms are necessary to explain typical brain lactate kinetics observed upon activation. On the basis of a previously validated model that takes into account the compartmentalization of energy metabolism, we developed a mathematical model of brain lactate kinetics, which was applied to published data describing the changes in extracellular lactate levels upon activation. Results show that the initial dip in the extracellular lactate concentration observed at the onset of stimulation can only be satisfactorily explained by a rapid uptake within an intraparenchymal cellular compartment. In contrast, neither blood flow increase, nor extracellular pH variation can be major causes of the lactate initial dip, whereas tissue lactate diffusion only tends to reduce its amplitude. The kinetic properties of monocarboxylate transporter isoforms strongly suggest that neurons represent the most likely compartment for activation-induced lactate uptake and that neuronal lactate utilization occurring early after activation onset is responsible for the initial dip in brain lactate levels observed in both animals and humans.

Geochemistry of the thermal springs and fumaroles of Basse-Terre Island, Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

The purpose of this work was to study jointly the volcanic-hydrothermal system of the high-risk volcano La Soufriere, in the southern part of Basse-Terre, and the geothermal area of Bouillante, on its western coast, to derive an all-embracing and coherent conceptual geochemical model that provides the necessary basis for adequate volcanic surveillance and further geothermal exploration. The active andesitic dome of La Soufriere has erupted eight times since 1660, most recently in 1976-1977. All these historic eruptions have been phreatic. High-salinity, Na-CI geothermal liquids circulate in the Bouillante geothermal reservoir, at temperatures close to 250 degrees C. These Na-CI solutions rise toward the surface, undergo boiling and mixing with groundwater and/or seawater, and feed most Na-CI thermal springs in the central Bouillante area. The Na-Cl thermal springs are surrounded by Na-HCO3 thermal springs and by the Na-Cl thermal spring of Anse a la Barque (a groundwater slightly mixed with seawater), which are all heated through conductive transfer. The two main fumarolic fields of La Soufriere area discharge vapors formed through boiling of hydrothermal aqueous solutions at temperatures of 190-215 degrees C below the ``Ty'' fault area and close to 260 degrees C below the dome summit. The boiling liquid producing the vapors of the Ty fault area has SD and delta(18)O values relatively similar to those of the Na-CI liquids of the Bouillante geothermal reservoir, whereas the liquid originating the vapors of the summit fumaroles is strongly enriched in O-18, due to input of magmatic fluids from below. This process is also responsible for the paucity of CH;I in the fumaroles. The thermal features around La Soufriere dome include: (a) Ca-SO4 springs, produced through absorption of hydrothermal vapors in shallow groundwaters; (b) conductively heated, Ca-Na-HCO3 springs; and (c) two Ca-Na-Cl springs produced through mixing of shallow Ca-SO4 waters and deep Na-Cl hydrothermal liquids. The geographical distribution of the different thermal features of La Soufriere area indicates the presence of: (a) a central zone dominated by the ascent of steam, which either discharges at the surface in the fumarolic fields or is absorbed in shallow groundwaters; and (b) an outer zone, where the shallow groundwaters are heated through conduction or addition of Na-Cl liquids coming from hydrothermal aquifer(s).

Dosage optimization of treatments using population pharmacokinetic modeling and simulation.

Pharmacokinetic variability in drug levels represent for some drugs a major determinant of treatment success, since sub-therapeutic concentrations might lead to toxic reactions, treatment discontinuation or inefficacy. This is true for most antiretroviral drugs, which exhibit high inter-patient variability in their pharmacokinetics that has been partially explained by some genetic and non-genetic factors. The population pharmacokinetic approach represents a very useful tool for the description of the dose-concentration relationship, the quantification of variability in the target population of patients and the identification of influencing factors. It can thus be used to make predictions and dosage adjustment optimization based on Bayesian therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). This approach has been used to characterize the pharmacokinetics of nevirapine (NVP) in 137 HIV-positive patients followed within the frame of a TDM program. Among tested covariates, body weight, co-administration of a cytochrome (CYP) 3A4 inducer or boosted atazanavir as well as elevated aspartate transaminases showed an effect on NVP elimination. In addition, genetic polymorphism in the CYP2B6 was associated with reduced NVP clearance. Altogether, these factors could explain 26% in NVP variability. Model-based simulations were used to compare the adequacy of different dosage regimens in relation to the therapeutic target associated with treatment efficacy. In conclusion, the population approach is very useful to characterize the pharmacokinetic profile of drugs in a population of interest. The quantification and the identification of the sources of variability is a rational approach to making optimal dosage decision for certain drugs administered chronically.

Reflections on Partial Least Squares Path Modeling

The purpose of the present article is to take stock of a recent exchange in Organizational Research Methods between critics (Rönkkö & Evermann, 2013) and proponents (Henseler et al., 2014) of partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM). The two target articles were centered around six principal issues, namely whether PLS-PM: (1) can be truly characterized as a technique for structural equation modeling (SEM); (2) is able to correct for measurement error; (3) can be used to validate measurement models; (4) accommodates small sample sizes; (5) is able to provide null hypothesis tests for path coefficients; and (6) can be employed in an exploratory, model-building fashion. We summarize and elaborate further on the key arguments underlying the exchange, drawing from the broader methodological and statistical literature in order to offer additional thoughts concerning the utility of PLS-PM and ways in which the technique might be improved. We conclude with recommendations as to whether and how PLS-PM serves as a viable contender to SEM approaches for estimating and evaluating theoretical models.

Self-potentials in partially saturated media: the importance of explicit modeling of electrode effects

Self-potential (SP) data are of interest to vadose zone hydrology because of their direct sensitivity to water flow and ionic transport. There is unfortunately little consensus in the literature about how to best model SP data under partially saturated conditions, and different approaches (often supported by one laboratory data set alone) have been proposed. We argue that this lack of agreement can largely be traced to electrode effects that have not been properly taken into account. A series of drainage and imbibition experiments were considered in which we found that previously proposed approaches to remove electrode effects were unlikely to provide adequate corrections. Instead, we explicitly modeled the electrode effects together with classical SP contributions using a flow and transport model. The simulated data agreed overall with the observed SP signals and allowed decomposing the different signal contributions to analyze them separately. After reviewing other published experimental data, we suggest that most of them include electrode effects that have not been properly taken into account. Our results suggest that previously presented SP theory works well when considering the modeling uncertainties presently associated with electrode effects. Additional work is warranted to not only develop suitable electrodes for laboratory experiments but also to assure that associated electrode effects that appear inevitable in longer term experiments are predictable, so that they can be incorporated into the modeling framework.

In vivo 13C NMR spectroscopy and metabolic modeling in the brain: a practical perspective.

In vivo 13C NMR spectroscopy has the unique capability to measure metabolic fluxes noninvasively in the brain. Quantitative measurements of metabolic fluxes require analysis of the 13C labeling time courses obtained experimentally with a metabolic model. The present work reviews the ingredients necessary for a dynamic metabolic modeling study, with particular emphasis on practical issues.

Biological exposure indicators: quantification of biological variability using toxicokinetic modeling

Compartmental and physiologically based toxicokinetic modeling coupled with Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantify the impact of biological variability (physiological, biochemical, and anatomic parameters) on the values of a series of bio-indicators of metal and organic industrial chemical exposures. A variability extent index and the main parameters affecting biological indicators were identified. Results show a large diversity in interindividual variability for the different categories of biological indicators examined. Measurement of the unchanged substance in blood, alveolar air, or urine is much less variable than the measurement of metabolites, both in blood and urine. In most cases, the alveolar flow and cardiac output were identified as the prime parameters determining biological variability, thus suggesting the importance of workload intensity on absorbed dose for inhaled chemicals.

Distribution of metals exposure and associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study".

BACKGROUND: Metals are known endocrine disruptors and have been linked to cardiometabolic diseases via multiple potential mechanisms, yet few human studies have both the exposure variability and biologically-relevant phenotype data available. We sought to examine the distribution of metals exposure and potential associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study" (METS), a prospective cohort study designed to assess energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five countries at different stages of social and economic development. METHODS: Young adults (25-45 years) of African descent were enrolled (N = 500 from each site) in: Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the U.S.A. We randomly selected 150 blood samples (N = 30 from each site) to determine concentrations of selected metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury) in a subset of participants at baseline and to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range) metal concentrations (μg/L) were: arsenic 8.5 (7.7); cadmium 0.01 (0.8); lead 16.6 (16.1); and mercury 1.5 (5.0). There were significant differences in metals concentrations by: site location, paid employment status, education, marital status, smoking, alcohol use, and fish intake. After adjusting for these covariates plus age and sex, arsenic (OR 4.1, 95% C.I. 1.2, 14.6) and lead (OR 4.0, 95% C.I. 1.6, 9.6) above the median values were significantly associated with elevated fasting glucose. These associations increased when models were further adjusted for percent body fat: arsenic (OR 5.6, 95% C.I. 1.5, 21.2) and lead (OR 5.0, 95% C.I. 2.0, 12.7). Cadmium and mercury were also related with increased odds of elevated fasting glucose, but the associations were not statistically significant. Arsenic was significantly associated with increased odds of low HDL cholesterol both with (OR 8.0, 95% C.I. 1.8, 35.0) and without (OR 5.9, 95% C.I. 1.5, 23.1) adjustment for percent body fat. CONCLUSIONS: While not consistent for all cardiometabolic disease markers, these results are suggestive of potentially important associations between metals exposure and cardiometabolic risk. Future studies will examine these associations in the larger cohort over time.

Qualitative modeling identifies IL-11 as a novel regulator in maintaining self-renewal in human pluripotent stem cells.

Pluripotency in human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) and induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) is regulated by three transcription factors-OCT3/4, SOX2, and NANOG. To fully exploit the therapeutic potential of these cells it is essential to have a good mechanistic understanding of the maintenance of self-renewal and pluripotency. In this study, we demonstrate a powerful systems biology approach in which we first expand literature-based network encompassing the core regulators of pluripotency by assessing the behavior of genes targeted by perturbation experiments. We focused our attention on highly regulated genes encoding cell surface and secreted proteins as these can be more easily manipulated by the use of inhibitors or recombinant proteins. Qualitative modeling based on combining boolean networks and in silico perturbation experiments were employed to identify novel pluripotency-regulating genes. We validated Interleukin-11 (IL-11) and demonstrate that this cytokine is a novel pluripotency-associated factor capable of supporting self-renewal in the absence of exogenously added bFGF in culture. To date, the various protocols for hESCs maintenance require supplementation with bFGF to activate the Activin/Nodal branch of the TGFβ signaling pathway. Additional evidence supporting our findings is that IL-11 belongs to the same protein family as LIF, which is known to be necessary for maintaining pluripotency in mouse but not in human ESCs. These cytokines operate through the same gp130 receptor which interacts with Janus kinases. Our finding might explain why mESCs are in a more naïve cell state compared to hESCs and how to convert primed hESCs back to the naïve state. Taken together, our integrative modeling approach has identified novel genes as putative candidates to be incorporated into the expansion of the current gene regulatory network responsible for inducing and maintaining pluripotency.

Hierarchical modeling gave plausible estimates of associations between metabolic syndrome and components of antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.