Recognition judgments and the performance of the recognition heuristic depend on the size of the reference class

In a series of three experiments, participants made inferences about which one of a pair of two objects scored higher on a criterion. The first experiment was designed to contrast the prediction of Probabilistic Mental Model theory (Gigerenzer, Hoffrage, & Kleinbölting, 1991) concerning sampling procedure with the hard-easy effect. The experiment failed to support the theory's prediction that a particular pair of randomly sampled item sets would differ in percentage correct; but the observation that German participants performed practically as well on comparisons between U.S. cities (many of which they did not even recognize) than on comparisons between German cities (about which they knew much more) ultimately led to the formulation of the recognition heuristic. Experiment 2 was a second, this time successful, attempt to unconfound item difficulty and sampling procedure. In Experiment 3, participants' knowledge and recognition of each city was elicited, and how often this could be used to make an inference was manipulated. Choices were consistent with the recognition heuristic in about 80% of the cases when it discriminated and people had no additional knowledge about the recognized city (and in about 90% when they had such knowledge). The frequency with which the heuristic could be used affected the percentage correct, mean confidence, and overconfidence as predicted. The size of the reference class, which was also manipulated, modified these effects in meaningful and theoretically important ways.

Simultaneous determination of plasma levels of fluvoxamine and of the enantiomers of fluoxetine and norfluoxetine by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.

A gas chromatographic-mass spectrometric method is presented which allows the simultaneous determination of the plasma concentrations of fluvoxamine and of the enantiomers of fluoxetine and norfluoxetine after derivatization with the chiral reagent, (S)-(-)-N-trifluoroacetylprolyl chloride. No interference was observed from endogenous compounds following the extraction of plasma samples from six different human subjects. The standard curves were linear over a working range of 10 to 750 ng/ml for racemic fluoxetine and norfluoxetine and of 50 to 500 ng/ml for fluvoxamine. Recoveries ranged from 50 to 66% for the three compounds. Intra- and inter-day coefficients of variation ranged from 4 to 10% for fluvoxamine and from 4 to 13% for fluoxetine and norfluoxetine. The limits of quantitation of the method were found to be 2 ng/ml for fluvoxamine and 1 ng/ml for the (R)- and (S)-enantiomers of fluoxetine and norfluoxetine, hence allowing its use for single dose pharmacokinetics. Finally, by using a steeper gradient of temperature, much shorter analysis times are obtained if one is interested in the concentrations of fluvoxamine alone.

An ultra performance liquid chromatography-tandem MS assay for tamoxifen metabolites profiling in plasma: first evidence of 4'-hydroxylated metabolites in breast cancer patients.

There is increasing evidence that the clinical efficacy of tamoxifen, the first and most widely used targeted therapy for estrogen-sensitive breast cancer, depends on the formation of the active metabolites 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen and 4-hydroxy-N-desmethyl-tamoxifen (endoxifen). Large inter-individual variability in endoxifen plasma concentrations has been observed and related both to genetic and environmental (i.e. drug-induced) factors altering CYP450s metabolizing enzymes activity. In this context, we have developed an ultra performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method (UPLC-MS/MS) requiring 100 μL of plasma for the quantification of tamoxifen and three of its major metabolites in breast cancer patients. Plasma is purified by a combination of protein precipitation, evaporation at room temperature under nitrogen, and reconstitution in methanol/20 mM ammonium formate 1:1 (v/v), adjusted to pH 2.9 with formic acid. Reverse-phase chromatographic separation of tamoxifen, N-desmethyl-tamoxifen, 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen and 4-hydroxy-N-desmethyl-tamoxifen is performed within 13 min using elution with a gradient of 10 mM ammonium formate and acetonitrile, both containing 0.1% formic acid. Analytes quantification, using matrix-matched calibration samples spiked with their respective deuterated internal standards, is performed by electrospray ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry using selected reaction monitoring detection in the positive mode. The method was validated according to FDA recommendations, including assessment of relative matrix effects variability, as well as tamoxifen and metabolites short-term stability in plasma and whole blood. The method is precise (inter-day CV%: 2.5-7.8%), accurate (-1.4 to +5.8%) and sensitive (lower limits of quantification comprised between 0.4 and 2.0 ng/mL). Application of this method to patients' samples has made possible the identification of two further metabolites, 4'-hydroxy-tamoxifen and 4'-hydroxy-N-desmethyl-tamoxifen, described for the first time in breast cancer patients. This UPLC-MS/MS assay is currently applied for monitoring plasma levels of tamoxifen and its metabolites in breast cancer patients within the frame of a clinical trial aiming to assess the impact of dose increase on tamoxifen and endoxifen exposure.

Determination of oseltamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate in human plasma by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry

Introduction: Oseltamivir phosphate (OP), the prodrug of oseltamivir carboxylate (OC; active metabolite), is marketed since 10 years for the treatment of seasonal influenza flu. It has recently received renewed attention because of the threat of avian flu H5N1 in 2006-7 and the 2009-10 A/H1N1 pandemic. However, relatively few studies have been published on OP and OC clinical pharmacokinetics. The disposition of OC and the dosage adaptation of OP in specific populations, such as young children or patients undergoing extrarenal epuration, have also received poor attention. An analytical method was thus developed to assess OP and OC plasma concentrations in patients receiving OP and presenting with comorbidities or requiring intensive care. Methods: A high performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry method (HPLC-MS/MS) requiring 100-µL aliquot of plasma for quantification within 6 min of OP and OC was developed. A combination of protein precipitation with acetonitrile, followed by dilution of supernant in suitable buffered solvent was used as an extraction procedure. After reverse phase chromatographic separation, quantification was performed by electro-spray ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. Deuterated isotopic compounds of OP and OC were used as internal standards. Results: The method is sensitive (lower limit of quantification: 5 ng/mL for OP and OC), accurate (intra-/inter-assay bias for OP and OC: 8.5%/5.5% and 3.7/0.7%, respectively) and precise (intra-/inter-assay CV%: 5.2%/6.5% and 6.3%/9.2%, respectively) over the clinically relevant concentration range (upper limits of quantification 5000 ng/mL). Of importance, OP, as in other previous reports, was found not to be stable ex vivo in plasma on standard anticoagulants (i.e. EDTA, heparin or citrate). This poor stability of OP has been prevented by collecting blood samples on commercial fluoride/oxalate tubes. Conclusions: This new simple, rapid and robust HPLC-MS/MS assay for quantification of OP and OC plasma concentrations offers an efficient tool for concentration monitoring of OC. Its exposure can probably be controlled with sufficient accuracy by thorough dosage adjustment according to patient characteristics (e.g. renal clearance). The usefulness of systematic therapeutic drug monitoring in patients appears therefore questionable. However, pharmacokinetic studies are still needed to extend knowledge to particular subgroups of patients or dosage regimens.

Biological markers of alcohol consumption in alcoholised drivers: Comparison of capillary electrophoresis (CZE CDT) and a direct immunoassay (N Latex CDT) with the traditional method of anion-exchange chromatography-immunoturbidimetry (%CDT TIA).

Objectives: The aim of this study was to compare specificity and sensitivity of different biological markers that can be used in a forensic field to identify potentially dangerous drivers because of their alcohol habits. Methods: We studied 280 Swiss drivers after driving while under the alcohol influence. 33 were excluded for not having CDT N results, 247 were included (218 men (88%) and 29 women (12%). Mean age was 42,4 (SD:12, min: 20 max: 76). The evaluation of the alcohol consumption concerned the month before the CDT test and was considered as such after the interview: Heavy drinkers (>3 drinks per day): 60 (32.7%), < 3 drinks per day and moderate: 127 (51.4%) 114 (46.5%), abstinent: 60 (24.3%) 51 (21%). Alcohol intake was monitored by structured interviews, self-reported drinking habits and the C-Audit questionnaire as well as information provided by their family and general practitioner. Consumption was quantified in terms of standard drinks, which contain approximately 10 grams of pure alcohol (Ref. WHO). Results: comparison between moderate (less or equal to 3 drinks per day) and excessive drinkers (more than 3 drinks) Marker ROC area 95% CI cut-off sensitivity specificity CDT TIA 0.852 0.786-0917 2.6* 0.93 LR+1.43 0.35 LR-0.192 CDT N latex 0.875 0.821-0.930 2.5* 0.66 LR+ 6.93 0.90 LR- 0.369 Asialo+disialo-tf 0.881 0.826-0.936 1.2* 0.78 LR+4.07 0.80 LR-0.268 1.7° 0.66 LR+8.9 0.93 LR-0.360 GGT 0.659 0.580-0.737 85* 0.37 LR+2.14 0.83 LR-0.764 * cut-off point suggested by the manufacturer ° cut-off point suggested by our laboratory Conclusion: With the cut-off point established by the manufacturer, CDT TIA performed poorly in term of specificity. N latex CDT and CZE CDT were better, especially if a 1.7 cut-off is used with CZE

Prediction of myocardial infarction size using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention for acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction

Objectives The relevance of the SYNTAX score for the particular case of patients with acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI)  has previously only been studied in the setting of post hoc analysis of large prospective randomized clinical trials. A "real-life" population approach has never been explored before. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the SYNTAX score for the prediction of the myocardial infarction size, estimated by the creatin-kinase (CK) peak value, using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary coronary intervention for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Methods The primary endpoint of the study was myocardial infarction size as measured by the CK peak value. The SYNTAX score was calculated retrospectively in 253 consecutive patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) in a large tertiary referral center in Switzerland, between January 2009 and June 2010. Linear regression analysis was performed to compare myocardial infarction size with the SYNTAX score. This same endpoint was then stratified according to SYNTAX score tertiles: low <22 (n=178), intermediate [22-32] (n=60), and high >=33 (n=15). Results There were no significant differences in terms of clinical characteristics between the three groups. When stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles, average CK peak values of 1985 (low<22), 3336 (intermediate [22-32]) and 3684 (high>=33) were obtained with a p-value <0.0001. Bartlett's test for equal variances between the three groups was 9.999 (p-value <0.0067). A moderate Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r=0.4074) with a high statistical significance level (p-value <0.0001) was found. The coefficient of determination (R^2=0.1660) showed that approximately 17% of the variation of CK peak value (myocardial infarction size) could be explained by the SYNTAX score, i.e. by the coronary disease complexity. Conclusion In an all-comers population, the SYNTAX score is an additional tool in predicting myocardial infarction size in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). The stratification of patients in different risk groups according to SYNTAX enables to identify a high-risk population that may warrant particular patient care.

Myocardial infarct size and mortality depend on the time of day-a large multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Different studies have shown circadian variation of ischemic burden among patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI), but with controversial results. The aim of this study was to analyze circadian variation of myocardial infarction size and in-hospital mortality in a large multicenter registry. METHODS: This retrospective, registry-based study was based on data from AMIS Plus, a large multicenter Swiss registry of patients who suffered myocardial infarction between 1999 and 2013. Peak creatine kinase (CK) was used as a proxy measure for myocardial infarction size. Associations between peak CK, in-hospital mortality, and the time of day at symptom onset were modelled using polynomial-harmonic regression methods. RESULTS: 6,223 STEMI patients were admitted to 82 acute-care hospitals in Switzerland and treated with primary angioplasty within six hours of symptom onset. Only the 24-hour harmonic was significantly associated with peak CK (p = 0.0001). The maximum average peak CK value (2,315 U/L) was for patients with symptom onset at 23:00, whereas the minimum average (2,017 U/L) was for onset at 11:00. The amplitude of variation was 298 U/L. In addition, no correlation was observed between ischemic time and circadian peak CK variation. Of the 6,223 patients, 223 (3.58%) died during index hospitalization. Remarkably, only the 24-hour harmonic was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. The risk of death from STEMI was highest for patients with symptom onset at 00:00 and lowest for those with onset at 12:00. DISCUSSION: As a part of this first large study of STEMI patients treated with primary angioplasty in Swiss hospitals, investigations confirmed a circadian pattern to both peak CK and in-hospital mortality which were independent of total ischemic time. Accordingly, this study proposes that symptom onset time be incorporated as a prognosis factor in patients with myocardial infarction.

The Tea4-PP1 landmark promotes local growth by dual Cdc42 GEF recruitment and GAP exclusion.

Cell polarization relies on small GTPases, such as Cdc42, which can break symmetry through self-organizing principles, and landmarks that define the axis of polarity. In fission yeast, microtubules deliver the Tea1-Tea4 complex to mark cell poles for growth, but how this complex activates Cdc42 is unknown. Here, we show that ectopic targeting of Tea4 to cell sides promotes the local activation of Cdc42 and cell growth. This activity requires that Tea4 binds the type I phosphatase (PP1) catalytic subunit Dis2 or Sds21, and ectopic targeting of either catalytic subunit is similarly instructive for growth. The Cdc42 guanine-nucleotide-exchange factor Gef1 and the GTPase-activating protein Rga4 are required for Tea4-PP1-dependent ectopic growth. Gef1 is recruited to ectopic Tea4 and Dis2 locations to promote Cdc42 activation. By contrast, Rga4 is locally excluded by Tea4, and its forced colocalization with Tea4 blocks ectopic growth, indicating that Rga4 must be present, but at sites distinct from Tea4. Thus, a Tea4-PP1 landmark promotes local Cdc42 activation and growth both through Cdc42 GEF recruitment and by creating a local trough in a Cdc42 GAP.

Exclusion of lumbar arteries by aortic endovascular grafts: can angiography demonstrate sealing characteristics?

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates sealing characteristics of two designs of endovascular grafts by angiographic demonstration of exclusion of porcine lumbar arteries. METHODS: 6 endovascular grafts (3 self-expandable with integrated polyurethane wall versus 3 nitinol structures covered with polyester fabric) were implanted in 6 porcine aortae. Perfusion of lumbar arteries was assessed by angiography after implantation and by angiography and dissection at graft explantation after 4 +/- 2 months. Tissue healing was evaluated by light and scanning electron microscopy. RESULTS: Immediate exclusion of the lumbar arteries was achieved in 14/31 vessels (12 by polyurethane grafts and 2 by polyester grafts, p < 0.001). Follow-up angiography and dissection at explantation revealed perfusion of 30/31 lumbar arteries with a collateral network in most cases. Another reason for reperfusion of initially excluded branches was distention of the polyurethane grafts with resulting shortening allowing reperfusion of 8 of the 31 originally covered branches. Histological examination revealed a complete neointimal lining and a tight contact between endovascular grafts and aorta. CONCLUSIONS: The immediate angiographic demonstration of exclusion of lumbar arteries predicts sealing characteristics of endovascular grafts. Later angiographic reappearance is due to development of a collateral network and possible shortening of self-expandable devices.

Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.

The size and burden of mental disorders and other disorders of the brain in Europe 2010.

Aims: To provide 12-month prevalence and disability burden estimates of a broad range of mental and neurological disorders in the European Union (EU) and to compare these findings to previous estimates. Referring to our previous 2005 review, improved up-to-date data for the enlarged EU on a broader range of disorders than previously covered are needed for basic, clinical and public health research and policy decisions and to inform about the estimated number of persons affected in the EU. Method: Stepwise multi-method approach, consisting of systematic literature reviews, reanalyses of existing data sets, national surveys and expert consultations. Studies and data from all member states of the European Union (EU-27) plus Switzerland, Iceland and Norway were included. Supplementary information about neurological disorders is provided, although methodological constraints prohibited the derivation of overall prevalence estimates for mental and neurological disorders. Disease burden was measured by disability adjusted life years (DALY). Results: Prevalence: It is estimated that each year 38.2% of the EU population suffers from a mental disorder. Adjusted for age and comorbidity, this corresponds to 164.8 million persons affected. Compared to 2005 (27.4%) this higher estimate is entirely due to the inclusion of 14 new disorders also covering childhood/adolescence as well as the elderly. The estimated higher number of persons affected (2011: 165 m vs. 2005: 82 m) is due to coverage of childhood and old age populations, new disorders and of new EU membership states. The most frequent disorders are anxiety disorders (14.0%), insomnia (7.0%), major depression (6.9%), somatoform (6.3%), alcohol and drug dependence (>4%), ADHD (5%) in the young, and dementia (1-30%, depending on age). Except for substance use disorders and mental retardation, there were no substantial cultural or country variations. Although many sources, including national health insurance programs, reveal increases in sick leave, early retirement and treatment rates due to mental disorders, rates in the community have not increased with a few exceptions (i.e. dementia). There were also no consistent indications of improvements with regard to low treatment rates, delayed treatment provision and grossly inadequate treatment. Disability: Disorders of the brain and mental disorders in particular, contribute 26.6% of the total all cause burden, thus a greater proportion as compared to other regions of the world. The rank order of the most disabling diseases differs markedly by gender and age group; overall, the four most disabling single conditions were: depression, dementias, alcohol use disorders and stroke. Conclusion: In every year over a third of the total EU population suffers from mental disorders. The true size of "disorders of the brain" including neurological disorders is even considerably larger. Disorders of the brain are the largest contributor to the all cause morbidity burden as measured by DALY in the EU. No indications for increasing overall rates of mental disorders were found nor of improved care and treatment since 2005; less than one third of all cases receive any treatment, suggesting a considerable level of unmet needs. We conclude that the true size and burden of disorders of the brain in the EU was significantly underestimated in the past.Concerted priority action is needed at all levels, including substantially increased funding for basic, clinical and public health research in order to identify better strategies for improved prevention and treatment for isorders of the brain as the core health challenge of the 21st century. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Analysis of the enantiomers of citalopram and its demethylated metabolites using chiral liquid chromatography.

A procedure using a chirobiotic V column is presented which allows separation of the enantiomers of citalopram and its two N-demethylated metabolites, and of the internal standard, alprenolol, in human plasma. Citalopram, demethylcitalopram and didemethylcitalopram, as well as the internal standard, were recovered from plasma by liquid-liquid extraction. The limits of quantification were found to be 5 ng/ml for each enantiomer of citalopram and demethylcitalopram, and 7.5 ng/ml for each enantiomer of didemethylcitalopram. Inter- and intra-day coefficients of variation varied from 2.4% to 8.6% for S- and R-citalopram, from 2.9% to 7.4% for S- and R-demethylcitalopram, and from 5.6% to 12.4% for S- and R- didemethylcitalopram. No interference was observed from endogenous compounds following the extraction of plasma samples from 10 different patients treated with citalopram. This method allows accurate quantification for each enantiomer and is, therefore, well suited for pharmacokinetic and drug interaction investigations. The presented method replaces a previously described highly sensitive and selective high-performance liquid chromatography procedure using an acetylated 3-cyclobond column which, because of manufactural problems, is no longer usable for the separation of the enantiomers of citalopram and its demethylated metabolites.