286 resultados para Penalized likelihood


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Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin-based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV-radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV-radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV-protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin-based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming.

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The increasing use of chest CT imaging in medical practice rises the likelihood of the general practitioner to be confronted with cases of interstitial lung disease. Respiratory bronchiolitis (RB) and respiratory bronchiolitis-associated interstitial lung disease (RB-ILD) are two smoking-related lung damages that may have important implications for the patient's management. The authors present in this paper a review of current knowledge of the epidemiology, clinical features, prognosis, and treatment options of RB and RB-ILD.

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A variety of behavioural traits have substantial effects on the gene dynamics and genetic structure of local populations. The mating system is a plastic trait that varies with environmental conditions in the domestic cat (Felis catus) allowing an intraspecific comparison of the impact of this feature on genetic characteristics of the population. To assess the potential effect of the heterogenity of males' contribution to the next generation on variance effective size, we applied the ecological approach of Nunney & Elam (1994) based upon a demographic and behavioural study, and the genetic 'temporal methods' of Waples (1989) and Berthier et al. (2002) using microsatellite markers. The two cat populations studied were nearly closed, similar in size and survival parameters, but differed in their mating system. Immigration appeared extremely restricted in both cases due to environmental and social constraints. As expected, the ratio of effective size to census number (Ne/N) was higher in the promiscuous cat population (harmonic mean = 42%) than in the polygynous one (33%), when Ne was calculated from the ecological method. Only the genetic results based on Waples' estimator were consistent with the ecological results, but failed to evidence an effect of the mating system. Results based on the estimation of Berthier et al. (2002) were extremely variable, with Ne sometimes exceeding census size. Such low reliability in the genetic results should retain attention for conservation purposes.

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BACKGROUND: Prehospital oligoanalgesia is prevalent among trauma victims, even when the emergency medical services team includes a physician. We investigated if not only patients' characteristics but physicians' practice variations contributed to prehospital oligoanalgesia. METHODS: Patient records of conscious adult trauma victims transported by our air rescue helicopter service over 10 yr were reviewed retrospectively. Oligoanalgesia was defined as a numeric rating scale (NRS) >3 at hospital admission. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to predict oligoanalgesia, accounting first for patient case-mix, and then physician-level clustering. The intraclass correlation was expressed as the median odds ratio (MOR). RESULTS: A total of 1202 patients and 77 physicians were included in the study. NRS at the scene was 6.9 (1.9). The prevalence of oligoanalgesia was 43%. Physicians had a median of 5.7 yr (inter-quartile range: 4.2-7.5) of post-graduate training and 27% were female. In our multilevel analysis, significant predictors of oligoanalgesia were: no analgesia [odds ratio (OR) 8.8], National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics V on site (OR 4.4), NRS on site (OR 1.5 per additional NRS unit >4), female physician (OR 2.0), and years of post-graduate experience [>4.0 to ≤5.0 (OR 1.3), >3.0 to ≤4.0 (OR 1.6), >2.0 to ≤3.0 (OR 2.6), and ≤2.0 yr (OR 16.7)]. The MOR was 2.6, and was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians' practice variations contributed to oligoanalgesia, a factor often overlooked in analyses of prehospital pain management. Further exploration of the sources of these variations may provide innovative targets for quality improvement programmes to achieve consistent pain relief for trauma victims.

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BACKGROUND: The use of the family history method is recommended in family studies as a type of proxy interview of non-participating relatives. However, using different sources of information can result in bias as direct interviews may provide a higher likelihood of assigning diagnoses than family history reports. The aims of the present study were to: 1) compare diagnoses for threshold and subthreshold mood syndromes from interviews to those relying on information from relatives; 2) test the appropriateness of lowering the diagnostic threshold and combining multiple reports from the family history method to obtain comparable prevalence estimates to the interviews; 3) identify factors that influence the likelihood of agreement and reporting of disorders by informants. METHODS: Within a family study, 1621 informant-index subject pairs were identified. DSM-5 diagnoses from direct interviews of index subjects were compared to those derived from family history information provided by their first-degree relatives. RESULTS: 1) Inter-informant agreement was acceptable for Mania, but low for all other mood syndromes. 2) Except for Mania and subthreshold depression, the family history method provided significantly lower prevalence estimates. The gap improved for all other syndromes after lowering the threshold of the family history method. 3) Individuals who had a history of depression themselves were more likely to report depression in their relatives. LIMITATIONS: Low proportion of affected individuals for manic syndromes and lack of independence of data. CONCLUSIONS: The higher likelihood of reporting disorders by affected informants entails the risk of overestimation of the size of familial aggregation of depression.

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BACKGROUND/AIMS: While several risk factors for the histological progression of chronic hepatitis C have been identified, the contribution of HCV genotypes to liver fibrosis evolution remains controversial. The aim of this study was to assess independent predictors for fibrosis progression. METHODS: We identified 1189 patients from the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort database with at least one biopsy prior to antiviral treatment and assessable date of infection. Stage-constant fibrosis progression rate was assessed using the ratio of fibrosis Metavir score to duration of infection. Stage-specific fibrosis progression rates were obtained using a Markov model. Risk factors were assessed by univariate and multivariate regression models. RESULTS: Independent risk factors for accelerated stage-constant fibrosis progression (>0.083 fibrosis units/year) included male sex (OR=1.60, [95% CI 1.21-2.12], P<0.001), age at infection (OR=1.08, [1.06-1.09], P<0.001), histological activity (OR=2.03, [1.54-2.68], P<0.001) and genotype 3 (OR=1.89, [1.37-2.61], P<0.001). Slower progression rates were observed in patients infected by blood transfusion (P=0.02) and invasive procedures or needle stick (P=0.03), compared to those infected by intravenous drug use. Maximum likelihood estimates (95% CI) of stage-specific progression rates (fibrosis units/year) for genotype 3 versus the other genotypes were: F0-->F1: 0.126 (0.106-0.145) versus 0.091 (0.083-0.100), F1-->F2: 0.099 (0.080-0.117) versus 0.065 (0.058-0.073), F2-->F3: 0.077 (0.058-0.096) versus 0.068 (0.057-0.080) and F3-->F4: 0.171 (0.106-0.236) versus 0.112 (0.083-0.142, overall P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a significant association of genotype 3 with accelerated fibrosis using both stage-constant and stage-specific estimates of fibrosis progression rates. This observation may have important consequences for the management of patients infected with this genotype.

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Non-recombining sex chromosomes are expected to undergo evolutionary decay, ending up genetically degenerated, as has happened in birds and mammals. Why are then sex chromosomes so often homomorphic in cold-blooded vertebrates? One possible explanation is a high rate of turnover events, replacing master sex-determining genes by new ones on other chromosomes. An alternative is that X-Y similarity is maintained by occasional recombination events, occurring in sex-reversed XY females. Based on mitochondrial and nuclear gene sequences, we estimated the divergence times between European tree frogs (Hyla arborea, H. intermedia, and H. molleri) to the upper Miocene, about 5.4-7.1 million years ago. Sibship analyses of microsatellite polymorphisms revealed that all three species have the same pair of sex chromosomes, with complete absence of X-Y recombination in males. Despite this, sequences of sex-linked loci show no divergence between the X and Y chromosomes. In the phylogeny, the X and Y alleles cluster according to species, not in groups of gametologs. We conclude that sex-chromosome homomorphy in these tree frogs does not result from a recent turnover but is maintained over evolutionary timescales by occasional X-Y recombination. Seemingly young sex chromosomes may thus carry old-established sex-determining genes, a result at odds with the view that sex chromosomes necessarily decay until they are replaced. This raises intriguing perspectives regarding the evolutionary dynamics of sexually antagonistic genes and the mechanisms that control X-Y recombination.

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Oxidative stress occurs when the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) by an organism exceeds its capacity to mitigate the damaging effects of the ROS. Consequently, oxidative stress hypotheses of ageing argue that a decline in fecundity and an increase in the likelihood of death with advancing age reported at the organism level are driven by gradual disruption of the oxidative balance at the cellular level. Here, we measured erythrocyte resistance to oxidative stress in the same individuals over several years in two free-living bird species with contrasting life expectancy, the great tit (known maximum life expectancy is 15.4 years) and the Alpine swift (26 years). In both species, we found evidence for senescence in cell resistance to oxidative stress, with patterns of senescence becoming apparent as subjects get older. In the Alpine swift, there was also evidence for positive selection on cell resistance to oxidative stress, the more resistant subjects being longer lived. The present findings of inter-individual selection and intra-individual deterioration in cell oxidative status at old age in free-living animals support a role for oxidative stress in the ageing of wild animals.

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We estimated the heritability of ambulatory systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and pulse pressure (PP) in east African families with at least 2 hypertensive siblings and living in the Seychelles islands (Indian Ocean). The sample consisted of 314 individuals (147 men and 167 women), both normotensive and hypertensive, from 76 pedigrees (mean+/-SD of 4.1+/-2.8 persons per pedigree). After a 2-week off-treatment period, daytime and nighttime ambulatory blood pressure (BP) was monitored. Office BP was measured with a standard mercury sphygmomanometer. We estimated by maximum likelihood the age- and sex-adjusted heritabilities from the additive polygenic component of the variance of the traits allowing for the presence of other familial correlations. We also adjusted for ascertainment (ie, for the fact that 2 siblings had to be hypertensive) and examined the effect of adjusting for body mass index, 24-hour urinary excretion of sodium and potassium, plasma renin activity, and plasma aldosterone concentration. Heritability estimates (+/-SE) for ambulatory SBP, DBP, and PP were, respectively, 0.37+/-0.12/0.24+/-0.12/0.54+/-0.12 for daytime and 0.34+/-0.13/ 0.37+/-0.15/0.47+/-0.12 for nighttime measurements (P<0.05 for all estimates). Heritability estimates for office SBP, DBP, and PP were, respectively, 0.20+/-0.11, 0.05+/-0.09, and 0.37+/-0.12. Heritability estimates for SBP varied markedly according to whether participants were treated for hypertension at baseline. The present data show that ambulatory BP and PP have a high heritability in families of African descent. They also demonstrate that antihypertensive treatment and the number of BP measurements have a major influence on the heritability estimates.

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Background: 7 - 20% of the childrenreport suspected allergic reactionsto anti-infectious drugs, thebetalactams being the most frequentlyinvolved. Studies based on skin andchallenge tests have shown that 2 -60% (mean: 10 - 15%) of the childrenwith suspected betalactam hypersensitivitywere really allergic to betalactams,and that the likelihood ofbetalactam hypersensitivity increasedwith the severity and/or the earlinessof the reactions. Methods: We reviewedthe records of 1,865 childrenexplored for suspected betalactam hypersensitivitybetween December1990 and July 2009. The objectivewas to confirm or rule-out the diagnosisof betalactam hypersensitivity, toevaluate the diagnostic value of immediateand non-immediate-readingskin tests with betalactams, and to determinerisk factors for betalactamhypersensitivity. In those childrenskin tests were first performed andthen challenges with the suspectedbetalactams were performed in mostchildren with negative skin test results.Results: 1431 children had acomplete allergological work-up. Fifteen-nine per cent of those childrenwere diagnosed allergic to betalactamsby means of skin tests (7.2%),challenge tests (7.7%), and clinicalhistory (0.9%) respectively. Immediatetype betalactam hypersensitivitywas diagnosed in 3.5% and non-immediatetype in 12.4% of the children.Skin tests diagnosed 86% and 31.6%of immediate and non-immediatesensitizations respectively. Cross-reactivityamong betalactams was diagnosedin 76% of the children with immediatehypersensitivity and in14.7% of the children with non-immediatehypersensitivity. The numberof children diagnosed allergic tobetalactams decreased with time betweenthe reaction and the allergologicalwork-up. Finally, age, sex andpersonal atopy were not significantrisk factors for betalactam allergy.Conclusion: This study, in a verylarge number of children, confirmsthat only a few children with suspectedbetalactam hypersensitivityare really allergic to betalactams, andthat the likelihood of betalactam allergyand cross-reactivity with otherbetalactams increases with the severityand/or the earliness of the reactions.We also confirm that immediate-reading skin tests have a good diagnosticvalue, and that the diagnosticvalue of non-immediate-reading skintests is low, the diagnosis of non-immediatehypersensitivity to betalactamsin children beeing mainly basedon challenge tests.

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We characterize divergence times, intraspecific diversity and distributions for recently recognized lineages within the Hyla arborea species group, based on mitochondrial and nuclear sequences from 160 localities spanning its whole distribution. Lineages of H. arborea, H. orientalis, H. molleri have at least Pliocene age, supporting species level divergence. The genetically uniform Iberian H. molleri, although largely isolated by the Pyrenees, is parapatric to H. arborea, with evidence for successful hybridization in a small Aquitanian corridor (southwestern France), where the distribution also overlaps with H. meridionalis. The genetically uniform H. arborea, spread from Crete to Brittany, exhibits molecular signatures of a postglacial range expansion. It meets different mtDNA clades of H. orientalis in NE-Greece, along the Carpathians, and in Poland along the Vistula River (there including hybridization). The East-European H. orientalis is strongly structured genetically. Five geographic mitochondrial clades are recognized, with a molecular signature of postglacial range expansions for the clade that reached the most northern latitudes. Hybridization with H. savignyi is suggested in southwestern Turkey. Thus, cryptic diversity in these Pliocene Hyla lineages covers three extremes: a genetically poor, quasi-Iberian endemic (H. molleri), a more uniform species distributed from the Balkans to Western Europe (H. arborea), and a well-structured Asia Minor-Eastern European species (H. orientalis).

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BACKGROUND/AIMS: Treatment of chronic HCV infection has become a priority in HIV+ patients, given the faster progression to end-stage liver disease. The primary endpoint of this study was to evaluate and compare antiviral efficacy of Peginterferon alpha 2a plus ribavirin in HIV-HCV co-infected and HCV mono-infected patients, and to examine whether 6 months of therapy would have the same efficacy in HIV patients with favourable genotypes 2 and 3 as in mono-infected patients, to minimise HCV-therapy-related toxicities. Secondary endpoints were to evaluate predictors of sustained virological response (SVR) and frequency of side-effects. METHODS: Patients with genotypes 1 and 4 were treated for 48 weeks with Pegasys 180 microg/week plus Copegus 1000-1200 mg/day according to body weight; patients with genotypes 2 and 3 for 24 weeks with Pegasys 180 microg/week plus Copegus 800 mg/day. RESULTS: 132 patients were enrolled in the study: 85 HCV mono-infected (38: genotypes 1 and 4; 47: genotypes 2 and 3), 47 HIV-HCV co-infected patients (23: genotypes 1 and 4; 24: genotypes 2 and 3). In an intention-to-treat analysis, SVR for genotypes 1 and 4 was observed in 58% of HCV mono-infected and in 13% of HIV-HCV co-infected patients (P = 0.001). For genotypes 2 and 3, SVR was observed in 70% of HCV mono-infected and in 67% of HIV-HCV co-infected patients (P = 0.973). Undetectable HCV-RNA at week 4 had a positive predictive value for SVR for mono-infected patients with genotypes 1 and 4 of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.54-0.93) and of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64-0.92) for genotypes 2 and 3. For co-infected patients with genotypes 2 and 3, the positive predictive value of SVR of undetectable HCV-RNA at week 4 was 0.76 (95%CI, 0.50-0.93). Study not completed by 22 patients (36%): genotypes 1 and 4 and by 12 patients (17%): genotypes 2 and 3. CONCLUSION: Genotypes 2 or 3 predict the likelihood of SVR in HCV mono-infected and in HIV-HCV co-infected patients. A 6-month treatment with Peginterferon alpha 2a plus ribavirin has the same efficacy in HIV-HCV co-infected patients with genotypes 2 and 3 as in mono-infected patients. HCV-RNA negativity at 4 weeks has a positive predictive value for SVR. Aggressive treatment of adverse effects to avoid dose reduction, consent withdrawal or drop-out is crucial to increase the rate of SVR, especially when duration of treatment is 48 weeks. Sixty-one percent of HIV-HCV co-infected patients with genotypes 1 and 4 did not complete the study against 4% with genotypes 2 and 3.

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BACKGROUND: Studies about beverage preferences in a country in which wine drinking is relatively widespread (like Switzerland) are scarce. Therefore, the main aims of the present study were to examine the associations between beverage preferences and drinking patterns, alcohol-related consequences and the use of other substances among Swiss young men. METHODS: The analytical sample consisted of 5399 Swiss men who participated in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) and had been drinking alcohol over the preceding 12 months. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to study the associations between preference for a particular beverage and (i) drinking patterns, (ii) negative alcohol-related consequences and (iii) the (at-risk) use of cigarettes, cannabis and other illicit drugs. RESULTS: Preference for beer was associated with risky drinking patterns and, comparable with a preference for strong alcohol, with the use of illicit substances (cannabis and other illicit drugs). In contrast, a preference for wine was associated with low-risk alcohol consumption and a reduced likelihood of experiencing at least four negative alcohol-related consequences or of daily cigarette smoking. Furthermore, the likelihood of negative outcomes (alcohol-related consequences; use of other substances) increased among people with risky drinking behaviours, independent of beverage preference. CONCLUSIONS: In our survey, beer preference was associated with risky drinking patterns and illicit drug use. Alcohol polices to prevent large quantities of alcohol consumption, especially of cheaper spirits like beer, should be considered to reduce total alcohol consumption and the negative consequences associated with these beverage types.

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Gene duplication and neofunctionalization are known to be important processes in the evolution of phenotypic complexity. They account for important evolutionary novelties that confer ecological adaptation, such as the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), a multigene family crucial to the vertebrate immune system. In birds, two MHC class II β (MHCIIβ) exon 3 lineages have been recently characterized, and two hypotheses for the evolutionary history of MHCIIβ lineages were proposed. These lineages could have arisen either by 1) an ancient duplication and subsequent divergence of one paralog or by 2) recent parallel duplications followed by functional convergence. Here, we compiled a data set consisting of 63 MHCIIβ exon 3 sequences from six avian orders to distinguish between these hypotheses and to understand the role of selection in the divergent evolution of the two avian MHCIIβ lineages. Based on phylogenetic reconstructions and simulations, we show that a unique duplication event preceding the major avian radiations gave rise to two ancestral MHCIIβ lineages that were each likely lost once later during avian evolution. Maximum likelihood estimation shows that following the ancestral duplication, positive selection drove a radical shift from basic to acidic amino acid composition of a protein domain facing the α-chain in the MHCII α β-heterodimer. Structural analyses of the MHCII α β-heterodimer highlight that three of these residues are potentially involved in direct interactions with the α-chain, suggesting that the shift following duplication may have been accompanied by coevolution of the interacting α- and β-chains. These results provide new insights into the long-term evolutionary relationships among avian MHC genes and open interesting perspectives for comparative and population genomic studies of avian MHC evolution.