Response to comment on "Climatic niche shifts are rare among terrestrial plant invaders"

Webber et al. take a critical view of our findings that niche expansions are rare in plant invaders, arguing mainly that we did not include nonanalog climates in our analyses. Yet, their concerns include misunderstandings and go beyond the scope of our study, which was purposely restricted to analog climates. We further explain why our results remain robust to other factors of niche dynamics in the native range. We conclude that the implications of our findings remain valid for projections of niche models in analog climates and that projections in nonanalog climates should be undertaken with care.

Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interactions between cancer stem cells and their niche govern metastatic colonization.

Metastatic growth in distant organs is the major cause of cancer mortality. The development of metastasis is a multistage process with several rate-limiting steps. Although dissemination of tumour cells seems to be an early and frequent event, the successful initiation of metastatic growth, a process termed 'metastatic colonization', is inefficient for many cancer types and is accomplished only by a minority of cancer cells that reach distant sites. Prevalent target sites are characteristic of many tumour entities, suggesting that inadequate support by distant tissues contributes to the inefficiency of the metastatic process. Here we show that a small population of cancer stem cells is critical for metastatic colonization, that is, the initial expansion of cancer cells at the secondary site, and that stromal niche signals are crucial to this expansion process. We find that periostin (POSTN), a component of the extracellular matrix, is expressed by fibroblasts in the normal tissue and in the stroma of the primary tumour. Infiltrating tumour cells need to induce stromal POSTN expression in the secondary target organ (in this case lung) to initiate colonization. POSTN is required to allow cancer stem cell maintenance, and blocking its function prevents metastasis. POSTN recruits Wnt ligands and thereby increases Wnt signalling in cancer stem cells. We suggest that the education of stromal cells by infiltrating tumour cells is an important step in metastatic colonization and that preventing de novo niche formation may be a novel strategy for the treatment of metastatic disease.

Predicting present and future intra-specific genetic structure through niche hindcasting across 24 millennia.

Paleoclimatic reconstructions coupled with species distribution models and identification of extant spatial genetic structure have the potential to provide insights into the demographic events that shape the distribution of intra-specific genetic variation across time. Using the globeflower Trollius europaeus as a case-study, we combined (1) Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, (2) suites of 1000-years stepwise hindcasted species distributions and (3) a model of diffusion through time over the last 24,000 years, to trace the spatial dynamics that most likely fits the species' current genetic structure. We show that the globeflower comprises four gene pools in Europe which, from the dry period preceding the Last Glacial Maximum, dispersed while tracking the conditions fitting its climatic niche. Among these four gene pools, two are predicted to experience drastic range retraction in the near future. Our interdisciplinary approach, applicable to virtually any taxon, is an advance in inferring how climate change impacts species' genetic structures.

Ensemble methods for environmental data modelling with support vector regression

This paper investigates the use of ensemble of predictors in order to improve the performance of spatial prediction methods. Support vector regression (SVR), a popular method from the field of statistical machine learning, is used. Several instances of SVR are combined using different data sampling schemes (bagging and boosting). Bagging shows good performance, and proves to be more computationally efficient than training a single SVR model while reducing error. Boosting, however, does not improve results on this specific problem.

Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species

Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

Variation in the proportion of flower visitors of Arum maculatum along its distributional range in relation with community‐based climatic niche analyses

Here, we investigate the geographical constancy in the specificity level of the specialized lure-and-trap pollination antagonism involving the widespread European Arum maculatum and its associated Psychodid pollinators. Until now, studies concurred in demonstrating that one single insect species, Psychoda phalaenoides, efficiently cross-pollinated plants; researches were, however, performed locally in western Europe. In this study we characterize for the first time the flower visitors' composition at the scale of the distribution range of A. maculatum by intensively collecting plants and insects throughout the European continent. We further correlate local climatic characteristics with the community composition of visiting arthropods.Our results show that flowers are generally visited by P. phalaenoides females, but not over the whole distribution range of the plant. In some regions this fly species is less frequent or even absent and another species, Psycha grisescens, becomes the prevailing visitor. This variability is geographically structured and can be explained by climatic factors: the proportion of P. grisescens increases with higher annual precipitations and lower precipitations in the warmest trimester, two characteristics typical of the Mediterranean zone. Climate thus seems driving the specificity of this interaction, by potentially affecting the phenology of one or both interacting species, or even of volatile and heat production in the plant. This result therefore challenges the specificity of other presumably one-to-one interactions covering wide distribution ranges, and provides an example of the direct effect that the abiotic environment can have on the fate of plant-insect interactions.

Modelling Bone Mineral Density in Swiss Breast Cancer Patients Treated with Letrozole, Tamoxifen and Sequences of Letrozole and Tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 Study (SAKK 21/07).

Background: Bone health is a concern when treating early stage breast cancer patients with adjuvant aromatase inhibitors. Early detection of patients (pts) at risk of osteoporosis and fractures may be helpful for starting preventive therapies and selecting the most appropriate endocrine therapy schedule. We present statistical models describing the evolution of lumbar and hip bone mineral density (BMD) in pts treated with tamoxifen (T), letrozole (L) and sequences of T and L. Methods: Available dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry exams (DXA) of pts treated in trial BIG 1-98 were retrospectively collected from Swiss centers. Treatment arms: A) T for 5 years, B) L for 5 years, C) 2 years of T followed by 3 years of L and, D) 2 years of L followed by 3 years of T. Pts without DXA were used as a control for detecting selection biases. Patients randomized to arm A were subsequently allowed an unplanned switch from T to L. Allowing for variations between DXA machines and centres, two repeated measures models, using a covariance structure that allow for different times between DXA, were used to estimate changes in hip and lumbar BMD (g/cm2) from trial randomization. Prospectively defined covariates, considered as fixed effects in the multivariable models in an intention to treat analysis, at the time of trial randomization were: age, height, weight, hysterectomy, race, known osteoporosis, tobacco use, prior bone fracture, prior hormone replacement therapy (HRT), bisphosphonate use and previous neo-/adjuvant chemotherapy (ChT). Similarly, the T-scores for lumbar and hip BMD measurements were modeled using a per-protocol approach (allowing for treatment switch in arm A), specifically studying the effect of each therapy upon T-score percentage. Results: A total of 247 out of 546 pts had between 1 and 5 DXA; a total of 576 DXA were collected. Number of DXA measurements per arm were; arm A 133, B 137, C 141 and D 135. The median follow-up time was 5.8 years. Significant factors positively correlated with lumbar and hip BMD in the multivariate analysis were weight, previous HRT use, neo-/adjuvant ChT, hysterectomy and height. Significant negatively correlated factors in the models were osteoporosis, treatment arm (B/C/D vs. A), time since endocrine therapy start, age and smoking (current vs. never).Modeling the T-score percentage, differences from T to L were -4.199% (p = 0.036) and -4.907% (p = 0.025) for the hip and lumbar measurements respectively, before any treatment switch occurred. Conclusions: Our statistical models describe the lumbar and hip BMD evolution for pts treated with L and/or T. The results of both localisations confirm that, contrary to expectation, the sequential schedules do not seem less detrimental for the BMD than L monotherapy. The estimated difference in BMD T-score percent is at least 4% from T to L.

Testing the competitive exclusion principle using various niche parameters in a native (Natrix maura) and an introduced (N. tessellata) colubrid

Despite the increase of animal and plant introductions worldwide and the strong augmentation of the reptile trade, few invasive snake populations have been studied. Dice snakes (Natrix tessellata) were introduced to the shores of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) in the early 1920s, and are now well established. This region of introduction was previously inhabited by Viperine snakes (N. maura). Ever since these two species have been under monitoring (which began in 1996) the Viperine snake population has shown drastic decline. We examine here the possibility of trophic competition by analysing diet composition, prey size and trophic niche overlap. Spatial distribution is also assessed in order to address the question of spatial competitive exclusion. We found very similar diets, and thus a high trophic niche overlap, indicating no partitioning of the trophic resource. No arguments in favour of spatial competitive exclusion were found. Our study suggests that trophic competition may occur between the two natricines and that it may give an explanation for the drastic decline of the Viperine snake in this area. Other pathways potentially playing a role in the exclusion of the Viperine snake are discussed.

Ecological niche overlap in sister species: how do oil-collecting bees Macropis europaea and M. fulvipes (Hymenoptera: Melittidae) avoid competition and hybridization?

Oil-collecting bees are found worldwide and always in association with particular oil-producing flowers. In the Western Palearctic, three oil-collecting bee species within the genus Macropis (Hymenoptera, Melittidae) interact in a tight pollination mutualism with species of the only European oil-producing plant genus Lysimachia L. (Myrsinaceae). Two of these oil-collecting bees (Macropis europaea and Macropis fulvipes) show overlapping geographic distributions, comparable morphologies, and similar ecological characteristics (e.g., habitat type, floral preferences). In view of these similarities, we presume that hybridization should occur between the two species unless potential variation among the species' ecological niches prevents it, simultaneously decreasing competition for resources. Using modern genetic analyses and ecological niche modeling on a large bee sampling throughout Europe, we discuss new perspectives on the ecology and evolutionary history of this mutualism.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species

Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is an adaptive process that may allow increasing the number of new occurrences found. We illustrate the approach with a case study of a rare and endangered plant species in Switzerland and a simulation experiment. Our field survey confirmed that the method helps in the discovery of new populations of the target species in remote areas where the predicted habitat suitability is high. In our simulations the model-based approach provided a significant improvement (by a factor of 1.8 to 4 times, depending on the measure) over simple random sampling. In terms of cost this approach may save up to 70% of the time spent in the field.

Gene expression profiling of rat spermatogonia and Sertoli cells reveals signaling pathways from stem cells to niche and testicular cancer cells to surrounding stroma.

Background: Stem cells and their niches are studied in many systems, but mammalian germ stem cells (GSC) and their niches are still poorly understood. In rat testis, spermatogonia and undifferentiated Sertoli cells proliferate before puberty, but at puberty most spermatogonia enter spermatogenesis, and Sertoli cells differentiate to support this program. Thus, pre-pubertal spermatogonia might possess GSC potential and pre-pubertal Sertoli cells niche functions. We hypothesized that the different stem cell pools at pre-puberty and maturity provide a model for the identification of stem cell and niche-specific genes. We compared the transcript profiles of spermatogonia and Sertoli cells from pre-pubertal and pubertal rats and examined how these related to genes expressed in testicular cancers, which might originate from inappropriate communication between GSCs and Sertoli cells. Results: The pre-pubertal spermatogonia-specific gene set comprised known stem cell and spermatogonial stem cell (SSC) markers. Similarly, the pre-pubertal Sertoli cell-specific gene set comprised known niche gene transcripts. A large fraction of these specifically enriched transcripts encoded trans-membrane, extra-cellular, and secreted proteins highlighting stem cell to niche communication. Comparing selective gene sets established in this study with published gene expression data of testicular cancers and their stroma, we identified sets expressed genes shared between testicular tumors and pre-pubertal spermatogonia, and tumor stroma and pre-pubertal Sertoli cells with statistic significance. Conclusions: Our data suggest that SSC and their niche specifically express complementary factors for cell communication and that the same factors might be implicated in the communication between tumor cells and their micro-enviroment in testicular cancer.