Plannification hospitalière: Quel scénario démographique pour prédire les besoins en soins hospitaliers?

Contexte: L'évolution démographique est un facteur essentiel pour la planification hospitalière. Le scenario démographique moyen de l'OFS ne répond que partiellement aux exigences de la planification pour le canton du Valais ; il ne permet pas de faire des projections par région hospitalière. De plus, la croissance en 2010 et 2011 selon le scenario OFS est inferieure a celle observée. Nous avons développe un scenario ajuste en tenant compte de l'évolution récente de la population valaisanne, et ce par région hospitalière. Méthode: La population de départ et les taux d'accroissement du au solde naturel et migratoire 2012 ont été déterminés à partir des données réelles 2011. Entre 2002 et 2011, le taux d'accroissement migratoire a fortement varie. Les taux 2011 ont donc été ajustés en fonction des taux moyens d'accroissement migratoire 2002-2011 calcules pour chaque région hospitalière. Pour les années 2013-2025, les écarts de taux d'accroissement naturel et migratoire du scenario OFS ont été repris tel quel. Résultats: Entre 2000 et 2010, la population valaisanne est passée de 276'170 a 312'684 habitants (+13.2%). Entre 2012 et 2025, les deux scenarios prévoient une poursuite de la croissance de la population, mais de manière moins soutenue, particulièrement selon le scenario OFS. Ainsi, en 2020, la population devrait atteindre 348'783 habitants (+11.5%) selon le scenario ajuste et 330'616 (+5.7%) selon le scenario OFS. La part de la population âgée de 65 ans et plus passera de 17.1% en 2010 a 20.5% en 2020 selon le scenario ajuste et a 21.4% selon le scenario OFS. Conclusion: Au vu des limites du scenario moyen de l'OFS, il est pertinent de développer des alternatives tenant compte au mieux des spécificités démographiques cantonales. Le scenario ajuste prédit une croissance plus forte de la population, ce qui a un impact important sur les besoins en soins hospitaliers et la planification hospitalière.

The fusion protein of wild-type canine distemper virus is a major determinant of persistent infection.

The wild-type A75/17 canine distemper virus (CDV) strain induces a persistent infection in the central nervous system but infects cell lines very inefficiently. In contrast, the genetically more distant Onderstepoort CDV vaccine strain (OP-CDV) induces extensive syncytia formation. Here, we investigated the roles of wild-type fusion (F(WT)) and attachment (H(WT)) proteins in Vero cells expressing, or not, the canine SLAM receptor by transfection experiments and by studying recombinants viruses expressing different combinations of wild-type and OP-CDV glycoproteins. We show that low fusogenicity is not due to a defect of the envelope proteins to reach the cell surface and that H(WT) determines persistent infection in a receptor-dependent manner, emphasizing the role of SLAM as a potent enhancer of fusogenicity. However, importantly, F(WT) reduced cell-to-cell fusion independently of the cell surface receptor, thus demonstrating that the fusion protein of the neurovirulent A75/17-CDV strain plays a key role in determining persistent infection.

Trace element chemistry and U-Pb dating of zircons from oceanic gabbros and their relationship with whole rock composition (Lanzo, Italian Alps)

The U-Pb ages and the trace element content of zircon U-Pb along with major and trace element whole rock data on gabbroic dikes from the Lanzo lherzolitic massif, N-Italy, have been determined to constrain crustal accretion in ocean-continent transition zones. Three Fe-Ti gabbros were dated from the central and the southern part of the massif providing middle Jurassic ages of 161 +/- 2, 158 +/- 2 and 163 +/- 1 Ma, which argue for magmatic activity over few millions of years. Zircon crystals are characterized by high but variable Th/U ratios, rare earth element patterns enriched in heavy rare earths, pronounced positive Ce and negative Eu-anomalies consistent with crystallization after substantial plagioclase fractionation. The zircon trace element composition coupled with whole rock chemistry was used to reconstruct the crystallization history of the gabbros. A number of gabbros crystallized in situ, and zircon precipitated from trapped, intercumulus liquid, while other gabbros represent residual liquids that were extracted from a cumulus pile and crystallized along syn-magmatic shear zones. We propose a model in which the emplacement mechanism of gabbroic rocks in ocean-continent transition zones evolves from in situ crystallization to stratified crystallization with efficient extraction of residual liquid along syn-magmatic shear zones. Such an evolution of the crystallization history is probably related to the thermal evolution of the underlying mantle lithosphere.

Early prediction of response to sunitinib after imatinib failure by 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor.

PURPOSE: Positron emission tomography with (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG-PET) was used to evaluate treatment response in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) after administration of sunitinib, a multitargeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor, after imatinib failure. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Tumor metabolism was assessed with FDG-PET before and after the first 4 weeks of sunitinib therapy in 23 patients who received one to 12 cycles of sunitinib therapy (4 weeks of 50 mg/d, 2 weeks off). Treatment response was expressed as the percent change in maximal standardized uptake values (SUV). The primary end point of time to tumor progression was compared with early PET results on the basis of traditional Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria. RESULTS: Progression-free survival (PFS) was correlated with early FDG-PET metabolic response (P < .0001). Using -25% and +25% thresholds for SUV variations from baseline, early FDG-PET response was stratified in metabolic partial response, metabolically stable disease, or metabolically progressive disease; median PFS rates were 29, 16, and 4 weeks, respectively. Similarly, when a single FDG-PET positive/negative was considered after 4 weeks of sunitinib, the median PFS was 29 weeks for SUVs less than 8 g/mL versus 4 weeks for SUVs of 8 g/mL or greater (P < .0001). None of the patients with metabolically progressive disease subsequently responded according to RECIST criteria. Multivariate analysis showed shorter PFS in patients who had higher residual SUVs (P < .0001), primary resistance to imatinib (P = .024), or nongastric GIST (P = .002), regardless of the mutational status of the KIT and PDGFRA genes. CONCLUSION: Week 4 FDG-PET is useful for early assessment of treatment response and for the prediction of clinical outcome. Thus, it offers opportunities to individualize and optimize patient therapy.

Exploration of the visual system: Part 1: Dissection of the mouse eye for RNA, protein, and histological analyses

Due to the power of genetics, the mouse has become a widely used animal model in vision research. However, its eyeball has an axial length of only about 2 mm. The present protocol describes how to easily dissect the small rodent eye post mortem. This allows collecting different tissues of the eye, i.e., cornea, lens, iris, retina, optic nerve, retinal pigment epithelium (RPE), and sclera. We further describe in detail how to process these eye samples in order to obtain high‐quality RNA for RNA expression profiling studies. Depending on the eye tissue to be analyzed, we present appropriate lysis buffers to prepare total protein lysates for immunoblot and immuno‐precipitation analyses. Fixation, inclusion, embedding, and cryosectioning of the globe for routine histological analyses (HE staining, DAPI staining, immunohistochemistry, in situ hybridization) is further presented. These basic protocols should allow novice investigators to obtain eye tissue samples rapidly for their experiments.

Self-avoiding random walks and Olbers' paradox

In this paper, we prove that a self-avoiding walk of infinite length provides a structure that would resolve Olbers' paradox. That is, if the stars of a universe were distributed like the vertices of an infinite random walk with each segment length of about a parsec, then the night sky could be as dark as actually observed on the Earth. Self-avoiding random walk structure can therefore resolve the Olbers' paradox even in a static universe.

Comparative analysis of the transcriptome across distant species.

The transcriptome is the readout of the genome. Identifying common features in it across distant species can reveal fundamental principles. To this end, the ENCODE and modENCODE consortia have generated large amounts of matched RNA-sequencing data for human, worm and fly. Uniform processing and comprehensive annotation of these data allow comparison across metazoan phyla, extending beyond earlier within-phylum transcriptome comparisons and revealing ancient, conserved features. Specifically, we discover co-expression modules shared across animals, many of which are enriched in developmental genes. Moreover, we use expression patterns to align the stages in worm and fly development and find a novel pairing between worm embryo and fly pupae, in addition to the embryo-to-embryo and larvae-to-larvae pairings. Furthermore, we find that the extent of non-canonical, non-coding transcription is similar in each organism, per base pair. Finally, we find in all three organisms that the gene-expression levels, both coding and non-coding, can be quantitatively predicted from chromatin features at the promoter using a 'universal model' based on a single set of organism-independent parameters.

Cost-effectiveness of a new combined immunosuppressive and anti-infectious regimen in kidney transplantation.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to assess the 1-year cost-effectiveness of a new combined immunosuppressive and anti-infectious regimen in kidney transplantation to prevent both rejection and infectious complications. METHODS: Patients (pts) transplanted from January 2000 to March 2003 (Group A) and treated with a conventional protocol were compared with pts submitted to a combined regimen including universal cytomegalovirus (CMV) prophylaxis between April 2003 and July 2005 (Group B). Costs were computed from the hospital accounting system for hospital stays, and official tariffs for outpatient visits. Patients with incomplete costs data were excluded from analysis. RESULTS: Fifty-three patients were analyzed in Group A, and 60 in Group B. Baseline characteristics including CMV serostatus were not significantly different between the two groups. Over 12 months after transplantation, acute rejections decreased from 41.5 percent in Group A to 6.7 percent in Group B (p &lt; .001), and CMV infections from 47 percent to 15 percent (p &lt; .001). Overall, readmissions decreased from 68 percent to 55 percent (p = .160), and average hospital days from 28 +/- 19 to 20 +/- 11 days (p &lt; .007). The average number of outpatient visits decreased from 49 +/- 10 to 39 +/- 8 (p &lt; .001). Average 1-year immunosuppressive and CMV prophylaxis costs (per patient) increased from CHF20,402 +/- 7,273 to 27,375 +/- 6,063 (p &lt; .001), graft rejection costs decreased from CHF4,595 +/- 10,182 to 650 +/- 3,167 (p = .005), CMV treatment costs from CHF2,270 +/- 6,161 to 101 +/- 326 (p = .008), and outpatient visits costs from CHF8,466 +/- 1'721 to 6,749 +/- 1,159 (p &lt; .001). Altogether, 1-year treatment costs decreased from CHF39'957 +/- 16,573 to 36,204 +/- 6,901 (p = .115). CONCLUSIONS: The new combined regimen administered in Group B was significantly more effective, and its additional costs were more than offset by savings associated with complications avoidance.

Evaluating the Trabecular Micro-Bypass Stent Combined with Phacoemulsification Compared to Phacoemulsification Alone.

Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the effect of iStent (trabecular micro-bypass stent) implantation in combination with phacoemulsification on IOP and glaucoma medications and to compare this to the outcome of phacoemulsification alone. Patients and Methods: A retrospective consecutive comparative review was undertaken. 131 eyes with ocular hypertension and medically controlled glaucoma underwent phacoemulsification alone (n = 78 group I) or combined with gonioscopic-guided implantation of one iStent (n = 31, group II) or two iStents (n = 22, group III). Patients were assessed at postoperative weeks 1, 3 and 6, and months 3 and 6. Pre- and post-operative measures included visual acuity, IOP and glaucoma medications. Results: Post-operatively at 6 months, mean IOP decreased from 16.3 mmHg to 14.2 mmHg in group I (p < 0.01), from 16.7 mmHg to 15.1 mmHg in group II (p < 0.16) and from 17.0 to 13.8 in group III (p = 0.05). Mean glaucoma medication decreased from 1.9 to 1.6 in group I (8 %, p = 0.12), from 2.5 to 0.8 in group II (27 %, p = 0.04), and from 2.1 to 1.0 in group III (45 %, p < 0.01). Conclusions: iStent implantation resulted in similar IOP reduction to phacoemulsification alone but achieved a significantly greater reduction in glaucoma medications. This may improve compliance and quality of life, and reduce health care costs in patients with early to moderate glaucoma.

The TREAT-NMD DMD Global Database: Analysis of More than 7,000 Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Mutations.

Analyzing the type and frequency of patient-specific mutations that give rise to Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is an invaluable tool for diagnostics, basic scientific research, trial planning, and improved clinical care. Locus-specific databases allow for the collection, organization, storage, and analysis of genetic variants of disease. Here, we describe the development and analysis of the TREAT-NMD DMD Global database (http://umd.be/TREAT_DMD/). We analyzed genetic data for 7,149 DMD mutations held within the database. A total of 5,682 large mutations were observed (80% of total mutations), of which 4,894 (86%) were deletions (1 exon or larger) and 784 (14%) were duplications (1 exon or larger). There were 1,445 small mutations (smaller than 1 exon, 20% of all mutations), of which 358 (25%) were small deletions and 132 (9%) small insertions and 199 (14%) affected the splice sites. Point mutations totalled 756 (52% of small mutations) with 726 (50%) nonsense mutations and 30 (2%) missense mutations. Finally, 22 (0.3%) mid-intronic mutations were observed. In addition, mutations were identified within the database that would potentially benefit from novel genetic therapies for DMD including stop codon read-through therapies (10% of total mutations) and exon skipping therapy (80% of deletions and 55% of total mutations).

Responsiveness et changement thérapeutique au travers de l'études de cas

Le concept de responsiveness ou « responsivité » a été proposé dans le domaine de la recherche en psychothérapie pour décrire l'influence mutuelle qui s'exerce continuellement entre patient et thérapeute. La nature responsive des psychothérapies pose alors un problème majeur aux chercheurs, qui adoptent généralement des plans de recherche impliquant des liens de cause à effet et sont en échec dans leur entreprise de mieux comprendre le changement thérapeutique. L'objectif de notre travail est de proposer des pistes pour répondre à ce problème. Nous avons adopté la méthode d'étude de cas, qui permet une analyse en profondeur et en contexte des processus de changement. Dans les deux premières phases de la recherche, nous nous situions dans une approche spécifique à la recherche qualitative en psychothérapie. Nous avons tout d'abord analysé comment le changement s'effectuait chez le patient, en identifiant pas à pas le niveau d'assimilation de ses expériences problématiques. Nous avons ensuite tenté d'appréhender le rôle du thérapeute dans le processus de changement. Notre objectif était d'analyser comment la responsivité du thérapeute pouvait faciliter le processus de changement chez le patient à chaque instant de la thérapie. En suivant une procédure inspirée de l'analyse de la tâche, nous avons identifié pour chaque niveau d'assimilation des interventions thérapeutiques suivies de progression, et élaboré un modèle empirique séquentiel. Dans la troisième phase de la recherche, nous avons effectué un tournant dans notre parcours et sommes allée du côté des sciences du langage. En adoptant une approche dialogique du discours, notre objectif était d'éclairer notre objet d'étude à partir d'une nouvelle perspective et d'ouvrir la réflexion. Nous avons ainsi pu répondre à certaines limites rencontrées dans les premières phases de la recherche, et faire émerger de nouvelles questions et perspectives pour l'étude des processus de changement dans une dimension interactive. -- The concept of responsiveness was developed in psychotherapy research to describe the mutual and constant influence between patient and therapist. The responsive nature of psychotherapy is a serious problem for researchers, who generally adopt research designs involving cause-effect reasoning and fail to better understand therapeutic change. The purpose of our work is to propose some viable possibilities to respond to this problem. We chose the case study method, which enables an analysis in depth and in context of change processes. In the two first phases of research, our approach was specific to qualitative psychotherapy research. We first analyzed how change occurred in the patient, by identifying moment-by-moment the level of assimilation of his or her problematic experiences. We then tried to apprehend the therapist role in the change process. Our aim was to analyze how the therapist responsiveness could facilitate the patient change process at any moment of psychotherapy. We followed a procedure inspired by task analysis and, for each level of assimilation, we identified therapist interventions followed by progression, and elaborated an empirical sequential model. The third phase of research was a turning point, as we went in the field of linguistics. We adopted a dialogical approach of discourse to open up reflection. Thus, we could answer some limitations encountered in the first phases of research, and new questions and perspectives to study change process taking into account the interactive dimension emerged.

Reliability of P-drive in occupational therapy following a short training session: A promising instrument measuring seniors' on-road driving competencies

Introduction Occupational therapists could play an important role in facilitating driving cessation for ageing drivers. This, however, requires an easy-to-learn, standardised on-road evaluation method. This study therefore investigates whether use of P-drive' could be reliably taught to occupational therapists via a short half-day training session. Method Using the English 26-item version of P-drive, two occupational therapists evaluated the driving ability of 24 home-dwelling drivers aged 70 years or over on a standardised on-road route. Experienced driving instructors' on-road, subjective evaluations were then compared with P-drive scores. Results Following a short half-day training session, P-drive was shown to have almost perfect between-rater reliability (ICC2,1=0.950, 95% CI 0.889 to 0.978). Reliability was stable across sessions including the training phase even if occupational therapists seemed to become slightly less severe in their ratings with experience. P-drive's score was related to the driving instructors' subjective evaluations of driving skills in a non-linear manner (R-2=0.445, p=0.021). Conclusion P-drive is a reliable instrument that can easily be taught to occupational therapists and implemented as a way of standardising the on-road driving test.