A mixed approach for proving non-inferiority in clinical trials with binary endpoints

When a new treatment is compared to an established one in a randomized clinical trial, it is standard practice to statistically test for non-inferiority rather than for superiority. When the endpoint is binary, one usually compares two treatments using either an odds-ratio or a difference of proportions. In this paper, we propose a mixed approach which uses both concepts. One first defines the non-inferiority margin using an odds-ratio and one ultimately proves non-inferiority statistically using a difference of proportions. The mixed approach is shown to be more powerful than the conventional odds-ratio approach when the efficacy of the established treatment is known (with good precision) and high (e.g. with more than 56% of success). The gain of power achieved may lead in turn to a substantial reduction in the sample size needed to prove non-inferiority. The mixed approach can be generalized to ordinal endpoints.

Several neuronal and axonal types form long intrinsic connections in the cat primary auditory cortical field (AI).

Intrinsic connections in the cat primary auditory field (AI) as revealed by injections of Phaseolus vulgaris leucoagglutinin (PHA-L) or biocytin, had an anisotropic and patchy distribution. Neurons, labelled retrogradely with PHA-L were concentrated along a dorsoventral stripe through the injection site and rostral to it; the spread of rostrally located neurons was greater after injections into regions of low rather than high characteristic frequencies. The intensity of retrograde labelling varied from weak and granular to very strong and Golgi-like. Out of 313 Golgi like retrogradely labelled neurons 79.6% were pyramidal, 17.2% multipolar, 2.6% bipolar, and 0.6% bitufted; 13.4% were putatively inhibitory, i.e. aspiny or sparsely spiny multipolar, or bitufted. Individual anterogradely labelled intrinsic axons were reconstructed for distances of 2 to 7 mm. Five main types were distinguished on the basis of the branching pattern and the location of synaptic specialisations. Type 1 axons travelled horizontally within layers II to VI and sent collaterals at regular intervals; boutons were only present in the terminal arborizations of these collaterals. Type 2 axons also travelled horizontally within layers II to VI and had rather short and thin collateral branches; boutons or spine-like protrusions occurred in most parts of the axon. Type 3 axons travelled obliquely through the cortex and formed a single terminal arborization, the only site where boutons were found. Type 4 axons travelled for some distance in layer I; they formed a heterogeneous group as to their collaterals and synaptic specializations. Type 5 axons travelled at the interface between layer VI and the white matter; boutons en passant, spine-like protrusions, and thin short branches with boutons en passant were frequent all along their trajectory. Thus, only some axonal types sustain the patchy pattern of intrinsic connectivity, whereas others are involved in a more diffuse connectivity.

Decoding decisions in healthy subjects and auditory discrimination in comatose patients through single-trial topographic EEG analyses

Neuroimaging studies analyzing neurophysiological signals are typically based on comparing averages of peri-stimulus epochs across experimental conditions. This approach can however be problematic in the case of high-level cognitive tasks, where response variability across trials is expected to be high and in cases where subjects cannot be considered part of a group. The main goal of this thesis has been to address this issue by developing a novel approach for analyzing electroencephalography (EEG) responses at the single-trial level. This approach takes advantage of the spatial distribution of the electric field on the scalp (topography) and exploits repetitions across trials for quantifying the degree of discrimination between experimental conditions through a classification scheme. In the first part of this thesis, I developed and validated this new method (Tzovara et al., 2012a,b). Its general applicability was demonstrated with three separate datasets, two in the visual modality and one in the auditory. This development allowed then to target two new lines of research, one in basic and one in clinical neuroscience, which represent the second and third part of this thesis respectively. For the second part of this thesis (Tzovara et al., 2012c), I employed the developed method for assessing the timing of exploratory decision-making. Using single-trial topographic EEG activity during presentation of a choice's payoff, I could predict the subjects' subsequent decisions. This prediction was due to a topographic difference which appeared on average at ~516ms after the presentation of payoff and was subject-specific. These results exploit for the first time the temporal correlates of individual subjects' decisions and additionally show that the underlying neural generators start differentiating their responses already ~880ms before the button press. Finally, in the third part of this project, I focused on a clinical study with the goal of assessing the degree of intact neural functions in comatose patients. Auditory EEG responses were assessed through a classical mismatch negativity paradigm, during the very early phase of coma, which is currently under-investigated. By taking advantage of the decoding method developed in the first part of the thesis, I could quantify the degree of auditory discrimination at the single patient level (Tzovara et al., in press). Our results showed for the first time that even patients who do not survive the coma can discriminate sounds at the neural level, during the first hours after coma onset. Importantly, an improvement in auditory discrimination during the first 48hours of coma was predictive of awakening and survival, with 100% positive predictive value. - L'analyse des signaux électrophysiologiques en neuroimagerie se base typiquement sur la comparaison des réponses neurophysiologiques à différentes conditions expérimentales qui sont moyennées après plusieurs répétitions d'une tâche. Pourtant, cette approche peut être problématique dans le cas des fonctions cognitives de haut niveau, où la variabilité des réponses entre les essais peut être très élevéeou dans le cas où des sujets individuels ne peuvent pas être considérés comme partie d'un groupe. Le but principal de cette thèse est d'investiguer cette problématique en développant une nouvelle approche pour l'analyse des réponses d'électroencephalographie (EEG) au niveau de chaque essai. Cette approche se base sur la modélisation de la distribution du champ électrique sur le crâne (topographie) et profite des répétitions parmi les essais afin de quantifier, à l'aide d'un schéma de classification, le degré de discrimination entre des conditions expérimentales. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, j'ai développé et validé cette nouvelle méthode (Tzovara et al., 2012a,b). Son applicabilité générale a été démontrée avec trois ensembles de données, deux dans le domaine visuel et un dans l'auditif. Ce développement a permis de cibler deux nouvelles lignes de recherche, la première dans le domaine des neurosciences cognitives et l'autre dans le domaine des neurosciences cliniques, représentant respectivement la deuxième et troisième partie de ce projet. En particulier, pour la partie cognitive, j'ai appliqué cette méthode pour évaluer l'information temporelle de la prise des décisions (Tzovara et al., 2012c). En se basant sur l'activité topographique de l'EEG au niveau de chaque essai pendant la présentation de la récompense liée à un choix, on a pu prédire les décisions suivantes des sujets (en termes d'exploration/exploitation). Cette prédiction s'appuie sur une différence topographique qui apparaît en moyenne ~516ms après la présentation de la récompense. Ces résultats exploitent pour la première fois, les corrélés temporels des décisions au niveau de chaque sujet séparément et montrent que les générateurs neuronaux de ces décisions commencent à différentier leurs réponses déjà depuis ~880ms avant que les sujets appuient sur le bouton. Finalement, pour la dernière partie de ce projet, je me suis focalisée sur une étude Clinique afin d'évaluer le degré des fonctions neuronales intactes chez les patients comateux. Des réponses EEG auditives ont été examinées avec un paradigme classique de mismatch negativity, pendant la phase précoce du coma qui est actuellement sous-investiguée. En utilisant la méthode de décodage développée dans la première partie de la thèse, j'ai pu quantifier le degré de discrimination auditive au niveau de chaque patient (Tzovara et al., in press). Nos résultats montrent pour la première fois que même des patients comateux qui ne vont pas survivre peuvent discriminer des sons au niveau neuronal, lors de la phase aigue du coma. De plus, une amélioration dans la discrimination auditive pendant les premières 48heures du coma a été observée seulement chez des patients qui se sont réveillés par la suite (100% de valeur prédictive pour un réveil).

Improving blood pressure control through pharmacist interventions: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Control of blood pressure (BP) remains a major challenge in primary care. Innovative interventions to improve BP control are therefore needed. By updating and combining data from 2 previous systematic reviews, we assess the effect of pharmacist interventions on BP and identify potential determinants of heterogeneity. METHODS AND RESULTS: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing the effect of pharmacist interventions on BP among outpatients with or without diabetes were identified from MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases. Weighted mean differences in BP were estimated using random effect models. Prediction intervals (PI) were computed to better express uncertainties in the effect estimates. Thirty-nine RCTs were included with 14 224 patients. Pharmacist interventions mainly included patient education, feedback to physician, and medication management. Compared with usual care, pharmacist interventions showed greater reduction in systolic BP (-7.6 mm Hg, 95% CI: -9.0 to -6.3; I(2)=67%) and diastolic BP (-3.9 mm Hg, 95% CI: -5.1 to -2.8; I(2)=83%). The 95% PI ranged from -13.9 to -1.4 mm Hg for systolic BP and from -9.9 to +2.0 mm Hg for diastolic BP. The effect tended to be larger if the intervention was led by the pharmacist and was done at least monthly. CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacist interventions - alone or in collaboration with other healthcare professionals - improved BP management. Nevertheless, pharmacist interventions had differential effects on BP, from very large to modest or no effect; and determinants of heterogeneity could not be identified. Determining the most efficient, cost-effective, and least time-consuming intervention should be addressed with further research.

Defining responses to therapy and study outcomes in clinical trials of invasive fungal diseases: Mycoses Study Group and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer consensus criteria.

Invasive fungal diseases (IFDs) have become major causes of morbidity and mortality among highly immunocompromised patients. Authoritative consensus criteria to diagnose IFD have been useful in establishing eligibility criteria for antifungal trials. There is an important need for generation of consensus definitions of outcomes of IFD that will form a standard for evaluating treatment success and failure in clinical trials. Therefore, an expert international panel consisting of the Mycoses Study Group and the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer was convened to propose guidelines for assessing treatment responses in clinical trials of IFDs and for defining study outcomes. Major fungal diseases that are discussed include invasive disease due to Candida species, Aspergillus species and other molds, Cryptococcus neoformans, Histoplasma capsulatum, and Coccidioides immitis. We also discuss potential pitfalls in assessing outcome, such as conflicting clinical, radiological, and/or mycological data and gaps in knowledge.

Impact of pharmacist care in the management of cardiovascular disease risk factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacists may improve the clinical management of major risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. A systematic review was conducted to determine the impact of pharmacist care on the management of CVD risk factors among outpatients. METHODS: The MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were searched for randomized controlled trials that involved pharmacist care interventions among outpatients with CVD risk factors. Two reviewers independently abstracted data and classified pharmacists' interventions. Mean changes in blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and proportion of smokers were estimated using random effects models. RESULTS: Thirty randomized controlled trials (11 765 patients) were identified. Pharmacist interventions exclusively conducted by a pharmacist or implemented in collaboration with physicians or nurses included patient educational interventions, patient-reminder systems, measurement of CVD risk factors, medication management and feedback to physician, or educational intervention to health care professionals. Pharmacist care was associated with significant reductions in systolic/diastolic blood pressure (19 studies [10 479 patients]; -8.1 mm Hg [95% confidence interval {CI}, -10.2 to -5.9]/-3.8 mm Hg [95% CI,-5.3 to -2.3]); total cholesterol (9 studies [1121 patients]; -17.4 mg/L [95% CI,-25.5 to -9.2]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (7 studies [924 patients]; -13.4 mg/L [95% CI,-23.0 to -3.8]), and a reduction in the risk of smoking (2 studies [196 patients]; relative risk, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.89]). While most studies tended to favor pharmacist care compared with usual care, a substantial heterogeneity was observed. CONCLUSION: Pharmacist-directed care or in collaboration with physicians or nurses improve the management of major CVD risk factors in outpatients.

Lack of antitumour activity of human recombinant tumour necrosis factor-alpha, alone or in combination with melphalan in a nude mouse human melanoma xenograft system.

The most promising developments in the field of isolated limb perfusion have centred around the use of the recombinant cytokine tumour necrosis factor-alpha (rTNF-alpha) in combination with melphalan. While the results of clinical trials are impressive, the exact antitumour mechanisms of rTNF-alpha and its role in combination with melphalan remain unclear. Our aim was to study the antitumour activity of human rTNF-alpha with or without the combination of melphalan in a nude mouse human melanoma xenograft system. In a first attempt to define the maximal tolerated single dose of rTNF-alpha in this setting, 15 animals were exposed to increasing doses of rTNF-alpha (60-2500 microg/kg intraperitoneally). All but one animal survived and tumour growth was not influenced by these single dose applications of rTNF-alpha even at the very high doses. Anti-tumour activity of repeated application of melphalan (three times 9 mg/kg in group 2 and three times 6 mg/kg in group 3), of rTNF-alpha alone (nine doses of 50 microg/kg in group 4), and of rTNF-alpha in combination with melphalan (nine doses of 50 microg/kg rTNF-alpha and three times 6 mg/kg melphalan in group 5) was further compared with non-treated animals (group 1). Tumour growth was significantly inhibited in all animals treated with melphalan (group 2, 3 and 5), but was not decreased in animals treated with rTNF-alpha alone (group 4). Mean final tumour volumes and mean tumour weight were not different in group 2 (789 +/- 836 mm3, 0.38 +/- 0.20 g), group 3 (1173 +/- 591 mm3, 0.55 +/- 0.29 g) and group 5 (230 +/- 632 mm3, 0.37 +/- 0.29 g), but significant lower than group 1 (3156 +/- 1512 mm3, 2.35 +/- 0.90 g) and group 4 (3228 +/- 1990 mm3, 2.00 +/- 1.16 g). There were no significant differences between high and low dose melphalan treatment and between melphalan treatment in combination with rTNF-alpha. Histological examination did not show differences between treated and non-treated animals besides slightly inhibited mitotic activities of tumour cells in melphalan-treated animals. While tumour growth of human xenotransplanted melanoma in nude mice could be inhibited by melphalan, we failed to demonstrate any antitumour effect of rTNF-alpha. The combination of melphalan and rTNF-alpha did not enhance the antiproliferative effect of melphalan alone. Human xenotransplanted tumours on nude mice might not be the ideal experimental setting for studies of potential direct antineoplastic activity of rTNF-alpha, and these results support the concept that TNF-alpha exerts its antitumour activity indirectly, possibly by impairing the tumour vasculature and by activating the immune system.

New validated prognostic models and prognostic calculators in patients with low-grade gliomas diagnosed by central pathology review: a pooled analysis of EORTC/RTOG/NCCTG phase III clinical trials.

Background In a previous study, the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) reported a scoring system to predict survival of patients with low-grade gliomas (LGGs). A major issue in the diagnosis of brain tumors is the lack of agreement among pathologists. New models in patients with LGGs diagnosed by central pathology review are needed. Methods Data from 339 EORTC patients with LGGs diagnosed by central pathology review were used to develop new prognostic models for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Data from 450 patients with centrally diagnosed LGGs recruited into 2 large studies conducted by North American cooperative groups were used to validate the models. Results Both PFS and OS were negatively influenced by the presence of baseline neurological deficits, a shorter time since first symptoms (<30 wk), an astrocytic tumor type, and tumors larger than 5 cm in diameter. Early irradiation improved PFS but not OS. Three risk groups have been identified (low, intermediate, and high) and validated. Conclusions We have developed new prognostic models in a more homogeneous LGG population diagnosed by central pathology review. This population better fits with modern practice, where patients are enrolled in clinical trials based on central or panel pathology review. We could validate the models in a large, external, and independent dataset. The models can divide LGG patients into 3 risk groups and provide reliable individual survival predictions. Inclusion of other clinical and molecular factors might still improve models' predictions.

Event-related potential analyses via single-subject topographic classification.

Introduction: Responses to external stimuli are typically investigated by averaging peri-stimulus electroencephalography (EEG) epochs in order to derive event-related potentials (ERPs) across the electrode montage, under the assumption that signals that are related to the external stimulus are fixed in time across trials. We demonstrate the applicability of a single-trial model based on patterns of scalp topographies (De Lucia et al, 2007) that can be used for ERP analysis at the single-subject level. The model is able to classify new trials (or groups of trials) with minimal a priori hypotheses, using information derived from a training dataset. The features used for the classification (the topography of responses and their latency) can be neurophysiologically interpreted, because a difference in scalp topography indicates a different configuration of brain generators. An above chance classification accuracy on test datasets implicitly demonstrates the suitability of this model for EEG data. Methods: The data analyzed in this study were acquired from two separate visual evoked potential (VEP) experiments. The first entailed passive presentation of checkerboard stimuli to each of the four visual quadrants (hereafter, "Checkerboard Experiment") (Plomp et al, submitted). The second entailed active discrimination of novel versus repeated line drawings of common objects (hereafter, "Priming Experiment") (Murray et al, 2004). Four subjects per experiment were analyzed, using approx. 200 trials per experimental condition. These trials were randomly separated in training (90%) and testing (10%) datasets in 10 independent shuffles. In order to perform the ERP analysis we estimated the statistical distribution of voltage topographies by a Mixture of Gaussians (MofGs), which reduces our original dataset to a small number of representative voltage topographies. We then evaluated statistically the degree of presence of these template maps across trials and whether and when this was different across experimental conditions. Based on these differences, single-trials or sets of a few single-trials were classified as belonging to one or the other experimental condition. Classification performance was assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: For the Checkerboard Experiment contrasts entailed left vs. right visual field presentations for upper and lower quadrants, separately. The average posterior probabilities, indicating the presence of the computed template maps in time and across trials revealed significant differences starting at ~60-70 ms post-stimulus. The average ROC curve area across all four subjects was 0.80 and 0.85 for upper and lower quadrants, respectively and was in all cases significantly higher than chance (unpaired t-test, p<0.0001). In the Priming Experiment, we contrasted initial versus repeated presentations of visual object stimuli. Their posterior probabilities revealed significant differences, which started at 250ms post-stimulus onset. The classification accuracy rates with single-trial test data were at chance level. We therefore considered sub-averages based on five single trials. We found that for three out of four subjects' classification rates were significantly above chance level (unpaired t-test, p<0.0001). Conclusions: The main advantage of the present approach is that it is based on topographic features that are readily interpretable along neurophysiologic lines. As these maps were previously normalized by the overall strength of the field potential on the scalp, a change in their presence across trials and between conditions forcibly reflects a change in the underlying generator configurations. The temporal periods of statistical difference between conditions were estimated for each training dataset for ten shuffles of the data. Across the ten shuffles and in both experiments, we observed a high level of consistency in the temporal periods over which the two conditions differed. With this method we are able to analyze ERPs at the single-subject level providing a novel tool to compare normal electrophysiological responses versus single cases that cannot be considered part of any cohort of subjects. This aspect promises to have a strong impact on both basic and clinical research.

Vaccination Strategies against Highly Pathogenic Arenaviruses: The Next Steps toward Clinical Trials.

Vaccination is one of the most valuable weapons against infectious diseases and has led to a significant reduction in mortality and morbidity. However, for most viral hemorrhagic fevers caused by arenaviruses, no prophylactic vaccine is available. This is particularly problematic as these diseases are notoriously difficult to diagnose and treat. Lassa fever is globally the most important of the fevers caused by arenaviruses, potentially affecting millions of people living in endemic areas, particularly in Nigeria. Annually, an estimated 300,000 humans are infected and several thousands succumb to the disease. The successful development of the vaccine "Candid#1" against Junin virus, the causative agent of Argentine hemorrhagic fever, proved that an effective arenavirus vaccine can be developed. Although several promising studies toward the development of a Lassa fever vaccine have been published, no vaccine candidate has been tested in human volunteers or patients. This review summarizes the immunology and other aspects of existing experimental arenavirus vaccine studies, discusses the reasons for the lack of a vaccine, and proposes a plan for overcoming the final hurdles toward clinical trials.

What is "clinical data"? Why and how can they be collected during field surveys on medicinal plants?

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: "Reverse pharmacology", also called "bedside-to-bench" or "field to pharmacy" approach, is a research process starting with documentation of clinical outcome as observed by patients with different therapeutic regimens. The treatment most significantly associated with cure is selected for future studies: first, clinical safety and efficacy; then in vivo and vitro studies. Some clinical data, i.e. details on patient status and progress, can be collected during ethnobotanical surveys; they will help clinical researchers and, once effectiveness and safety are established, will also help users of traditional medicine make safer and more effective choices. To gather clinical data successfully, ethnopharmacologists need to be backed by an appropriate team of specialists in medicine and epidemiology. Ethnopharmacologists can also gather important data on traditional medicine safety. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The first step is to create a consensus on the meaning of "clinical data", their interest and importance. An understanding of why "a cure is not a proof of effectiveness" is a starting point to avoid faulty interpretation of the clinical observations. RESULTS: Experience showed that, with the "bedside-to-bench" approach, a treatment derived from traditional recipe can be scientifically validated (in terms of safety and effectiveness) with a cost of less than a million euros, thus providing an end-product that is affordable, available and sustainable. CONCLUSIONS: With rigorous clinical study results, medicinal plant users gain the possibility to refine heath strategies. The field surveyor may gain a better relationship with the population, once she/he is seen as bringing information useful for the quality of care in the community.

Designing phase III or IV trials for vaccines: choosing between individual or cluster randomised trial designs.

The choice of design between individual randomisation, cluster or pseudo-cluster randomisation is often made difficult. Clear methodological guidelines have been given for trials in general practice, but not for vaccine trials. This article proposes a decisional flow-chart to choose the most adapted design for evaluating the effectiveness of a vaccine in large-scale studies. Six criteria have been identified: importance of herd immunity or herd protection, ability to delimit epidemiological units, homogeneity of transmission probability across sub-populations, population's acceptability of randomisation, availability of logistical resources, and estimated sample size. This easy to use decisional method could help sponsors, trial steering committees and ethical committees adopt the most suitable design.