Volcanic arcs fed by rapid pulsed fluid flow through subducting slabs

At subduction zones, oceanic lithosphere that has interacted with sea water is returned to the mantle, heats up during descent and releases fluids by devolatilization of hydrous minerals. Models for the formation of magmas feeding volcanoes above subduction zones require largescale transport of these fluids into overlying mantle wedges(1-3). Fluid flow also seems to be linked to seismicity in subducting slabs. However, the spatial and temporal scales of this fluid flow remain largely unknown, with suggested timescales ranging from tens to tens of thousands of years(3-5). Here we use the Li-Ca-Sr isotope systems to consider fluid sources and quantitatively constrain the duration of subduction-zone fluid release at similar to 70 km depth within subducting oceanic lithosphere, now exhumed in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains. Using lithium-diffusion modelling, we find that the wall-rock porosity adjacent to the flowpath of the fluids increased ten times above the background level. We show that fluids released by devolatilization travelled through the slab along major conduits in pulses with durations of about similar to 200 years. Thus, although the overall slab dehydration process is continuous over millions of years and over a wide range of pressures and temperatures, we conclude that the fluids produced by dehydration in subducting slabs are mobilized in short-lived, channelized fluid-flow events.

Transscleral Coulomb-controlled iontophoresis of methylprednisolone into the rabbit eye: influence of duration of treatment, current intensity and drug concentration on ocular tissue and fluid levels.

The major problems associated with the use of corticosteroids for the treatment of ocular diseases are their poor intraocular penetration to the posterior segment when administered locally and their secondary side effects when given systemically. To circumvent these problems more efficient methods and techniques of local delivery are being developed. The purposes of this study were: (1) to investigate the pharmacokinetics of intraocular penetration of hemisuccinate methyl prednisolone (HMP) after its delivery using the transscleral Coulomb controlled iontophoresis (CCI) system applied to the eye or after intravenous (i.v.) injection in the rabbit, (2) to test the safety of the CCI system for the treated eyes and (3) to compare the pharmacokinetic profiles of HMP intraocular distribution after CCI delivery to i.v. injection. For each parameter evaluated, six rabbit eyes were used. For the CCI system, two concentrations of HMP (62.5 and 150mg ml(-1)), various intensities of current and duration of treatment were analyzed. In rabbits serving as controls the HMP was infused in the CCI device but without applied electric current. For the i.v. delivery, HMP at 10mg kg(-1)as a 62.5mg ml(-1)solution was used. The rabbits were observed clinically for evidence of ocular toxicity. At various time points after the administration of drug, rabbits were killed and intraocular fluids and tissues were sampled for methylprednisolone (MP) concentrations by high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC). Histology examinations were performed on six eyes of each group. Among groups that received CCI, the concentrations of MP increased in all ocular tissues and fluids in relation to the intensities of current used (0.4, 1.0 and 2.0mA/0.5cm(2)) and its duration (4 and 10min). Sustained and highest levels of MP were achieved in the choroid and the retina of rabbit eyes treated with the highest current and 10min duration of CCI. No clinical toxicity or histological lesions were observed following CCI. Negligible amounts of MP were found in ocular tissues in the CCI control group without application of current. Compared to i.v. administration, CCI achieved higher and more sustained tissue concentrations with negligible systemic absorption. These data demonstrate that high levels of MP can be safely achieved in intraocular tissues and fluids of the rabbit eye, using CCI. With this system, intraocular tissues levels of MP are higher than those achieved after i.v. injection. Furthermore, if needed, the drug levels achieved with CCI can be modulated as a function of current intensity and duration of treatment. CCI could therefore be used as an alternative method for the delivery of high levels of MP to the intraocular tissues of both the anterior and posterior segments.

Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of prior repeated-sprints with different recovery duration on oxygen uptake kinetics during subsequent heavy-exercise

Introduction: Prior repeated-sprints (6) has become an interesting method to resolve the debate surrounding the principal factors that limits the oxygen uptake (V'O2) kinetics at the onset of exercise [i.e., muscle O2 delivery (5) or metabolic inertia (3)]. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s separated by different recovery duration between the sprints on V'O2 and muscular de-oxygenation [HHb] kinetics during a subsequent heavy-intensity exercise. Methods: 10 male subjects performed a 6-min constant-load cycling test (T50) at intensity corresponding to half of the difference between V'O2max and the ventilatory threshold. Then, they performed two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s all-out separated by different recovery duration between the sprints (S1:30s and S2:3min) followed, after 7-min-recovery, by the T50 (S1T50 and S2T50, respectively). V'O2, [HHb] of the vastus lateralis (VL) and surface electromyography activity [i.e., root-mean-square (RMS) and the median frequency of the power density spectrum (MDF)] from VL and vastus medialis (VM) were recorded throughout T50. Models using a bi-exponential function for the overall T50 and a mono-exponential for the first 90s of T50 were used to define V'O2 and [HHb] kinetics respectively. Results: V'O2 mean value was higher in S1 (2.9±0.3l.min-1) than in S2 (1.2±0.3l.min-1); (p<0.001). The peripheral blood flow was increased after sprints as attested by a higher basal heart rate (HRbaseline) (S1T50: +22%; S2T50: +17%; p≤0.008). Time delay [HHb] was shorter for S1T50 and S2T50 than for T50 (-22% for both; p≤0.007) whereas the mean response time of V'O2 was accelerated only after S1 (S1T50: 32.3±2.5s; S2T50: 34.4±2.6s; T50: 35.7±5.4s; p=0.031). There were no significant differences in RMS between the three conditions (p>0.05). MDF of VM was higher during the first 3-min in S1T50 than in T50 (+6%; p≤0.05). Conclusion: The study show that V'O2 kinetics was speeded by prior repeated-sprints with a short (30s) but not a long (3min) inter-sprints-recovery even though the [HHb] kinetics was accelerated and the peripheral blood flow was enhanced after both sprints. S1, inducing a greater PCr depletion (1) and change in the pattern of the fibres recruitment (increase in MDF) compared with S2, may decrease metabolic inertia (2), stimulate the oxidative phosphorylation activation (4) and accelerate V'O2 kinetics at the beginning of the subsequent high-intensity exercise.

Persistent association of nailfold capillaroscopy changes and skin involvement over thirty-six months with duration of untreated disease in patients with juvenile dermatomyositis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of changes on nailfold capillaroscopy with clinical findings and genotype in children with juvenile dermatomyositis (DM), in order to identify potential differences in disease course over 36 months. METHODS: At diagnosis of juvenile DM in 61 children prior to the initiation of treatment, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) -308 allele and DQA1*0501 status was determined, juvenile DM Disease Activity Scores (DAS) were obtained, and nailfold capillaroscopy was performed. The disease course was monitored for 36 months. Variations within and between patients were assessed by regression analysis. RESULTS: At diagnosis, shorter duration of untreated disease (P = 0.05) and a lower juvenile DM skin DAS (P = 0.035) were associated with a unicyclic disease course. Over 36 months, end-row loop (ERL) regeneration was associated with lower skin DAS (P &lt; 0.001) but not muscle DAS (P = 0.98); ERL regeneration and decreased bushy loops were associated with a shorter duration of untreated disease (P = 0.04 for both). At 36 months, increased ERL regeneration (P = 0.007) and improvement of skin DAS (P &lt; 0.001) and muscle DAS (P = 0.025) were associated with a unicyclic disease course. CONCLUSION: Early treatment of juvenile DM may lead to a unicyclic disease course. The non-unicyclic disease course usually involves continuing skin manifestations with persistent nailfold capillaroscopy changes. The correlation of nailfold capillaroscopy results with cutaneous but not with musculoskeletal signs of juvenile DM over a 36-month period suggests that the cutaneous and muscle vasculopathies have different pathophysiologic mechanisms. These findings indicate that efforts to identify the optimal treatment of cutaneous features in juvenile DM require greater attention.

Effects of prior repeated-sprints with different recovery duration on oxygen uptake kinetics during subsequent heavy-exercise.

Introduction: Prior repeated-sprints (6) has become an interesting method to resolve the debate surrounding the principal factors that limits the oxygen uptake (V'O2) kinetics at the onset of exercise [i.e., muscle O2 delivery (5) or metabolic inertia (3)]. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s separated by different recovery duration between the sprints on V'O2 and muscular de-oxygenation [HHb] kinetics during a subsequent heavy-intensity exercise. Methods: 10 male subjects performed a 6-min constant-load cycling test (T50) at intensity corresponding to half of the difference between V'O2max and the ventilatory threshold. Then, they performed two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s all-out separated by different recovery duration between the sprints (S1:30s and S2:3min) followed, after 7-min-recovery, by the T50 (S1T50 and S2T50, respectively). V'O2, [HHb] of the vastus lateralis (VL) and surface electromyography activity [i.e., root-mean-square (RMS) and the median frequency of the power density spectrum (MDF)] from VL and vastus medialis (VM) were recorded throughout T50. Models using a bi-exponential function for the overall T50 and a mono-exponential for the first 90s of T50 were used to define V'O2 and [HHb] kinetics respectively. Results: V'O2 mean value was higher in S1 (2.9±0.3l.min-1) than in S2 (1.2±0.3l.min-1); (p<0.001). The peripheral blood flow was increased after sprints as attested by a higher basal heart rate (HRbaseline) (S1T50: +22%; S2T50: +17%; p≤0.008). Time delay [HHb] was shorter for S1T50 and S2T50 than for T50 (-22% for both; p≤0.007) whereas the mean response time of V'O2 was accelerated only after S1 (S1T50: 32.3±2.5s; S2T50: 34.4±2.6s; T50: 35.7±5.4s; p=0.031). There were no significant differences in RMS between the three conditions (p>0.05). MDF of VM was higher during the first 3-min in S1T50 than in T50 (+6%; p≤0.05). Conclusion: The study show that V'O2 kinetics was speeded by prior repeated-sprints with a short (30s) but not a long (3min) inter-sprints-recovery even though the [HHb] kinetics was accelerated and the peripheral blood flow was enhanced after both sprints. S1, inducing a greater PCr depletion (1) and change in the pattern of the fibres recruitment (increase in MDF) compared with S2, may decrease metabolic inertia (2), stimulate the oxidative phosphorylation activation (4) and accelerate V'O2 kinetics at the beginning of the subsequent high-intensity exercise.

Ensemble methods for environmental data modelling with support vector regression

This paper investigates the use of ensemble of predictors in order to improve the performance of spatial prediction methods. Support vector regression (SVR), a popular method from the field of statistical machine learning, is used. Several instances of SVR are combined using different data sampling schemes (bagging and boosting). Bagging shows good performance, and proves to be more computationally efficient than training a single SVR model while reducing error. Boosting, however, does not improve results on this specific problem.

Pegfilgrastim to accelerate neutrophil engraftment following peripheral blood stem cell transplant and reduce the duration of neutropenia, hospitalization, and use of intravenous antibiotics: a phase II study in multiple myeloma and lymphoma and comparison with filgrastim-treated matched controls.

This trial was aimed to explore the efficacy of pegfilgrastim to accelerate neutrophil engraftment after stem cell autotransplant. Twenty patients with multiple myeloma and 20 with lymphoma received pegfilgrastim 6 mg on day +1. Forty cases treated with daily filgrastim starting at median day +7 (5-7), matched by age, sex, diagnosis, high-dose chemotherapy schedule, CD34 +  cell-dose, and prior therapy lines, were used for comparison. Median time to neutrophil engraftment was 9.5 vs. 11 days for pegfilgrastim and filgrastim, respectively (p < 0.0001). Likewise, duration of neutropenia, intravenous antibiotic use, and hospitalization favored pegfilgrastim, while platelet engraftment, transfusion requirement, and fever duration were equivalent in both groups. No grade  ≥ 3 toxicities were observed. Patients with lymphoma performed similarly to the entire cohort, while patients with myeloma showed faster neutrophil engraftment and shorter neutropenia but not shorter hospitalization and antibiotic use. The possibility of different outcomes for lymphoma and myeloma suggests that stratification by diagnosis may be useful in future phase III studies.

Modelling Bone Mineral Density in Swiss Breast Cancer Patients Treated with Letrozole, Tamoxifen and Sequences of Letrozole and Tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 Study (SAKK 21/07).

Background: Bone health is a concern when treating early stage breast cancer patients with adjuvant aromatase inhibitors. Early detection of patients (pts) at risk of osteoporosis and fractures may be helpful for starting preventive therapies and selecting the most appropriate endocrine therapy schedule. We present statistical models describing the evolution of lumbar and hip bone mineral density (BMD) in pts treated with tamoxifen (T), letrozole (L) and sequences of T and L. Methods: Available dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry exams (DXA) of pts treated in trial BIG 1-98 were retrospectively collected from Swiss centers. Treatment arms: A) T for 5 years, B) L for 5 years, C) 2 years of T followed by 3 years of L and, D) 2 years of L followed by 3 years of T. Pts without DXA were used as a control for detecting selection biases. Patients randomized to arm A were subsequently allowed an unplanned switch from T to L. Allowing for variations between DXA machines and centres, two repeated measures models, using a covariance structure that allow for different times between DXA, were used to estimate changes in hip and lumbar BMD (g/cm2) from trial randomization. Prospectively defined covariates, considered as fixed effects in the multivariable models in an intention to treat analysis, at the time of trial randomization were: age, height, weight, hysterectomy, race, known osteoporosis, tobacco use, prior bone fracture, prior hormone replacement therapy (HRT), bisphosphonate use and previous neo-/adjuvant chemotherapy (ChT). Similarly, the T-scores for lumbar and hip BMD measurements were modeled using a per-protocol approach (allowing for treatment switch in arm A), specifically studying the effect of each therapy upon T-score percentage. Results: A total of 247 out of 546 pts had between 1 and 5 DXA; a total of 576 DXA were collected. Number of DXA measurements per arm were; arm A 133, B 137, C 141 and D 135. The median follow-up time was 5.8 years. Significant factors positively correlated with lumbar and hip BMD in the multivariate analysis were weight, previous HRT use, neo-/adjuvant ChT, hysterectomy and height. Significant negatively correlated factors in the models were osteoporosis, treatment arm (B/C/D vs. A), time since endocrine therapy start, age and smoking (current vs. never).Modeling the T-score percentage, differences from T to L were -4.199% (p = 0.036) and -4.907% (p = 0.025) for the hip and lumbar measurements respectively, before any treatment switch occurred. Conclusions: Our statistical models describe the lumbar and hip BMD evolution for pts treated with L and/or T. The results of both localisations confirm that, contrary to expectation, the sequential schedules do not seem less detrimental for the BMD than L monotherapy. The estimated difference in BMD T-score percent is at least 4% from T to L.

A simple score for estimating ischemic heart disease in patients with non-traumatic chest pain in primary care

Background: Modelling epidemiological knowledge in validated clinical scores is a practical mean of integrating EBM to usual care. Existing scores about cardiovascular disease have been largely developed in emergency settings, but few in primary care. Such a toll is needed for general practitioners (GP) to evaluate the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in patients with non-traumatic chest pain. Objective: To develop a predictive model to use as a clinical score for detecting IHD in patients with non-traumatic chest-pain in primary care. Methods: A post-hoc secondary analysis on data from an observational study including 672 patients with chest pain of which 85 had IHD diagnosed by their GP during the year following their inclusion. Best subset method was used to select 8 predictive variables from univariate analysis and fitted in a multivariate logistic regression model to define the score. Reliability of the model was assessed using split-group method. Results: Significant predictors were: age (0-3 points), gender (1 point), having at least one cardiovascular risks factor (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking, family history of CVD; 3 points), personal history of cardiovascular disease (1 point), duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes (2 points), substernal chest pain (1 point), pain increasing with exertion (1 point) and absence of tenderness at palpation (1 point). Area under the ROC curve for the score was of 0.95 (IC95% 0.93; 0.97). Patients were categorised in three groups, low risk of IHD (score under 6; n = 360), moderate risk of IHD (score from 6 to 8; n = 187) and high risk of IHD (score from 9-13; n = 125). Prevalence of IHD in each group was respectively of 0%, 6.7%, 58.5%. Reliability of the model seems satisfactory as the model developed from the derivation set predicted perfectly (p = 0.948) the number of patients in each group in the validation set. Conclusion: This clinical score based only on history and physical exams can be an important tool in the practice of the general physician for the prediction of ischemic heart disease in patients complaining of chest pain. The score below 6 points (in more than half of our population) can avoid demanding complementary exams for selected patients (ECG, laboratory tests) because of the very low risk of IHD. Score above 6 points needs investigation to detect or rule out IHD. Further external validation is required in ambulatory settings.

Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.

A new spin on a compositionalist predictive modelling framework for conservation planning: a tropical case study in Ecuador

Knowledge about spatial biodiversity patterns is a basic criterion for reserve network design. Although herbarium collections hold large quantities of information, the data are often scattered and cannot supply complete spatial coverage. Alternatively, herbarium data can be used to fit species distribution models and their predictions can be used to provide complete spatial coverage and derive species richness maps. Here, we build on previous effort to propose an improved compositionalist framework for using species distribution models to better inform conservation management. We illustrate the approach with models fitted with six different methods and combined using an ensemble approach for 408 plant species in a tropical and megadiverse country (Ecuador). As a complementary view to the traditional richness hotspots methodology, consisting of a simple stacking of species distribution maps, the compositionalist modelling approach used here combines separate predictions for different pools of species to identify areas of alternative suitability for conservation. Our results show that the compositionalist approach better captures the established protected areas than the traditional richness hotspots strategies and allows the identification of areas in Ecuador that would optimally complement the current protection network. Further studies should aim at refining the approach with more groups and additional species information.