Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

Responsiveness et changement thérapeutique au travers de l'études de cas

Le concept de responsiveness ou « responsivité » a été proposé dans le domaine de la recherche en psychothérapie pour décrire l'influence mutuelle qui s'exerce continuellement entre patient et thérapeute. La nature responsive des psychothérapies pose alors un problème majeur aux chercheurs, qui adoptent généralement des plans de recherche impliquant des liens de cause à effet et sont en échec dans leur entreprise de mieux comprendre le changement thérapeutique. L'objectif de notre travail est de proposer des pistes pour répondre à ce problème. Nous avons adopté la méthode d'étude de cas, qui permet une analyse en profondeur et en contexte des processus de changement. Dans les deux premières phases de la recherche, nous nous situions dans une approche spécifique à la recherche qualitative en psychothérapie. Nous avons tout d'abord analysé comment le changement s'effectuait chez le patient, en identifiant pas à pas le niveau d'assimilation de ses expériences problématiques. Nous avons ensuite tenté d'appréhender le rôle du thérapeute dans le processus de changement. Notre objectif était d'analyser comment la responsivité du thérapeute pouvait faciliter le processus de changement chez le patient à chaque instant de la thérapie. En suivant une procédure inspirée de l'analyse de la tâche, nous avons identifié pour chaque niveau d'assimilation des interventions thérapeutiques suivies de progression, et élaboré un modèle empirique séquentiel. Dans la troisième phase de la recherche, nous avons effectué un tournant dans notre parcours et sommes allée du côté des sciences du langage. En adoptant une approche dialogique du discours, notre objectif était d'éclairer notre objet d'étude à partir d'une nouvelle perspective et d'ouvrir la réflexion. Nous avons ainsi pu répondre à certaines limites rencontrées dans les premières phases de la recherche, et faire émerger de nouvelles questions et perspectives pour l'étude des processus de changement dans une dimension interactive. -- The concept of responsiveness was developed in psychotherapy research to describe the mutual and constant influence between patient and therapist. The responsive nature of psychotherapy is a serious problem for researchers, who generally adopt research designs involving cause-effect reasoning and fail to better understand therapeutic change. The purpose of our work is to propose some viable possibilities to respond to this problem. We chose the case study method, which enables an analysis in depth and in context of change processes. In the two first phases of research, our approach was specific to qualitative psychotherapy research. We first analyzed how change occurred in the patient, by identifying moment-by-moment the level of assimilation of his or her problematic experiences. We then tried to apprehend the therapist role in the change process. Our aim was to analyze how the therapist responsiveness could facilitate the patient change process at any moment of psychotherapy. We followed a procedure inspired by task analysis and, for each level of assimilation, we identified therapist interventions followed by progression, and elaborated an empirical sequential model. The third phase of research was a turning point, as we went in the field of linguistics. We adopted a dialogical approach of discourse to open up reflection. Thus, we could answer some limitations encountered in the first phases of research, and new questions and perspectives to study change process taking into account the interactive dimension emerged.

Exploring transparent approaches to the authentication of signatures on artwork

This thesis is composed of three main parts. The first consists of a state of the art of the different notions that are significant to understand the elements surrounding art authentication in general, and of signatures in particular, and that the author deemed them necessary to fully grasp the microcosm that makes up this particular market. Individuals with a solid knowledge of the art and expertise area, and that are particularly interested in the present study are advised to advance directly to the fourth Chapter. The expertise of the signature, it's reliability, and the factors impacting the expert's conclusions are brought forward. The final aim of the state of the art is to offer a general list of recommendations based on an exhaustive review of the current literature and given in light of all of the exposed issues. These guidelines are specifically formulated for the expertise of signatures on paintings, but can also be applied to wider themes in the area of signature examination. The second part of this thesis covers the experimental stages of the research. It consists of the method developed to authenticate painted signatures on works of art. This method is articulated around several main objectives: defining measurable features on painted signatures and defining their relevance in order to establish the separation capacities between groups of authentic and simulated signatures. For the first time, numerical analyses of painted signatures have been obtained and are used to attribute their authorship to given artists. An in-depth discussion of the developed method constitutes the third and final part of this study. It evaluates the opportunities and constraints when applied by signature and handwriting experts in forensic science. A brief summary covering each chapter allows a rapid overview of the study and summarizes the aims and main themes of each chapter. These outlines presented below summarize the aims and main themes addressed in each chapter. Part I - Theory Chapter 1 exposes legal aspects surrounding the authentication of works of art by art experts. The definition of what is legally authentic, the quality and types of the experts that can express an opinion concerning the authorship of a specific painting, and standard deontological rules are addressed. The practices applied in Switzerland will be specifically dealt with. Chapter 2 presents an overview of the different scientific analyses that can be carried out on paintings (from the canvas to the top coat). Scientific examinations of works of art have become more common, as more and more museums equip themselves with laboratories, thus an understanding of their role in the art authentication process is vital. The added value that a signature expertise can have in comparison to other scientific techniques is also addressed. Chapter 3 provides a historical overview of the signature on paintings throughout the ages, in order to offer the reader an understanding of the origin of the signature on works of art and its evolution through time. An explanation is given on the transitions that the signature went through from the 15th century on and how it progressively took on its widely known modern form. Both this chapter and chapter 2 are presented to show the reader the rich sources of information that can be provided to describe a painting, and how the signature is one of these sources. Chapter 4 focuses on the different hypotheses the FHE must keep in mind when examining a painted signature, since a number of scenarios can be encountered when dealing with signatures on works of art. The different forms of signatures, as well as the variables that may have an influence on the painted signatures, are also presented. Finally, the current state of knowledge of the examination procedure of signatures in forensic science in general, and in particular for painted signatures, is exposed. The state of the art of the assessment of the authorship of signatures on paintings is established and discussed in light of the theoretical facets mentioned previously. Chapter 5 considers key elements that can have an impact on the FHE during his or her2 examinations. This includes a discussion on elements such as the skill, confidence and competence of an expert, as well as the potential bias effects he might encounter. A better understanding of elements surrounding handwriting examinations, to, in turn, better communicate results and conclusions to an audience, is also undertaken. Chapter 6 reviews the judicial acceptance of signature analysis in Courts and closes the state of the art section of this thesis. This chapter brings forward the current issues pertaining to the appreciation of this expertise by the non- forensic community, and will discuss the increasing number of claims of the unscientific nature of signature authentication. The necessity to aim for more scientific, comprehensive and transparent authentication methods will be discussed. The theoretical part of this thesis is concluded by a series of general recommendations for forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science, specifically for the expertise of signatures on paintings. These recommendations stem from the exhaustive review of the literature and the issues exposed from this review and can also be applied to the traditional examination of signatures (on paper). Part II - Experimental part Chapter 7 describes and defines the sampling, extraction and analysis phases of the research. The sampling stage of artists' signatures and their respective simulations are presented, followed by the steps that were undertaken to extract and determine sets of characteristics, specific to each artist, that describe their signatures. The method is based on a study of five artists and a group of individuals acting as forgers for the sake of this study. Finally, the analysis procedure of these characteristics to assess of the strength of evidence, and based on a Bayesian reasoning process, is presented. Chapter 8 outlines the results concerning both the artist and simulation corpuses after their optical observation, followed by the results of the analysis phase of the research. The feature selection process and the likelihood ratio evaluation are the main themes that are addressed. The discrimination power between both corpuses is illustrated through multivariate analysis. Part III - Discussion Chapter 9 discusses the materials, the methods, and the obtained results of the research. The opportunities, but also constraints and limits, of the developed method are exposed. Future works that can be carried out subsequent to the results of the study are also presented. Chapter 10, the last chapter of this thesis, proposes a strategy to incorporate the model developed in the last chapters into the traditional signature expertise procedures. Thus, the strength of this expertise is discussed in conjunction with the traditional conclusions reached by forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science. Finally, this chapter summarizes and advocates a list of formal recommendations for good practices for handwriting examiners. In conclusion, the research highlights the interdisciplinary aspect of signature examination of signatures on paintings. The current state of knowledge of the judicial quality of art experts, along with the scientific and historical analysis of paintings and signatures, are overviewed to give the reader a feel of the different factors that have an impact on this particular subject. The temperamental acceptance of forensic signature analysis in court, also presented in the state of the art, explicitly demonstrates the necessity of a better recognition of signature expertise by courts of law. This general acceptance, however, can only be achieved by producing high quality results through a well-defined examination process. This research offers an original approach to attribute a painted signature to a certain artist: for the first time, a probabilistic model used to measure the discriminative potential between authentic and simulated painted signatures is studied. The opportunities and limits that lie within this method of scientifically establishing the authorship of signatures on works of art are thus presented. In addition, the second key contribution of this work proposes a procedure to combine the developed method into that used traditionally signature experts in forensic science. Such an implementation into the holistic traditional signature examination casework is a large step providing the forensic, judicial and art communities with a solid-based reasoning framework for the examination of signatures on paintings. The framework and preliminary results associated with this research have been published (Montani, 2009a) and presented at international forensic science conferences (Montani, 2009b; Montani, 2012).

COMPASS identifies T-cell subsets correlated with clinical outcomes.

Advances in flow cytometry and other single-cell technologies have enabled high-dimensional, high-throughput measurements of individual cells as well as the interrogation of cell population heterogeneity. However, in many instances, computational tools to analyze the wealth of data generated by these technologies are lacking. Here, we present a computational framework for unbiased combinatorial polyfunctionality analysis of antigen-specific T-cell subsets (COMPASS). COMPASS uses a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model all observed cell subsets and select those most likely to have antigen-specific responses. Cell-subset responses are quantified by posterior probabilities, and human subject-level responses are quantified by two summary statistics that describe the quality of an individual's polyfunctional response and can be correlated directly with clinical outcome. Using three clinical data sets of cytokine production, we demonstrate how COMPASS improves characterization of antigen-specific T cells and reveals cellular 'correlates of protection/immunity' in the RV144 HIV vaccine efficacy trial that are missed by other methods. COMPASS is available as open-source software.

Local Salmonella immunostimulation recruits vaccine-specific CD8 T cells and increases regression of bladder tumor.

NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">The efficacy of antitumoral responses can be increased using combinatorial vaccine strategies. We recently showed that vaccination could be optimized by local administration of diverse molecular or bacterial agents to target and augment antitumoral CD8 T cells in the genital mucosa (GM) and increase regression of cervical cancer in an animal model. Non muscle-invasive bladder cancer is another disease that is easily amenable to local therapies. In contrast to data obtained in the GM, in this study we show that intravesical (IVES) instillation of synthetic toll-like receptor (TLR) agonists only modestly induced recruitment of CD8 T cells to the bladder. However, IVES administration of Ty21a, a live bacterial vaccine against typhoid fever, was much more effective and increased the number of total and vaccine-specific CD8 T cells in the bladder approximately 10 fold. Comparison of chemokines induced in the bladder by either CpG (a TLR-9 agonist) or Ty21a highlighted the preferential increase in complement component 5a, CXCL5, CXCL2, CCL8, and CCL5 by Ty21a, suggesting their involvement in the attraction of T cells to the bladder. IVES treatment with Ty21a after vaccination also significantly increased tumor regression compared to vaccination alone, resulting in 90% survival in an orthotopic murine model of bladder cancer expressing a prototype tumor antigen. Our data demonstrate that combining vaccination with local immunostimulation may be an effective treatment strategy for different types of cancer and also highlight the great potential of the Ty21a vaccine, which is routinely used worldwide, in such combinatorial therapies.

Better-quasi-order : ideals and spaces

This thesis deals with combinatorics, order theory and descriptive set theory. The first contribution is to the theory of well-quasi-orders (wqo) and better-quasi-orders (bqo). The main result is the proof of a conjecture made by Maurice Pouzet in 1978 his thèse d'état which states that any wqo whose ideal completion remainder is bqo is actually bqo. Our proof relies on new results with both a combinatorial and a topological flavour concerning maps from a front into a compact metric space. The second contribution is of a more applied nature and deals with topological spaces. We define a quasi-order on the subsets of every second countable To topological space in a way that generalises the Wadge quasi-order on the Baire space, while extending its nice properties to virtually all these topological spaces. The Wadge quasi-order of reducibility by continuous functions is wqo on Borei subsets of the Baire space, this quasi-order is however far less satisfactory for other important topological spaces such as the real line, as Hertling, Ikegami and Schlicht notably observed. Some authors have therefore studied reducibility with respect to some classes of discontinuous functions to remedy this situation. We propose instead to keep continuity but to weaken the notion of function to that of relation. Using the notion of admissible representation studied in Type-2 theory of effectivity, we define the quasi-order of reducibility by relatively continuous relations. We show that this quasi-order both refines the classical hierarchies of complexity and is wqo on the Borei subsets of virtually every second countable To space - including every (quasi-)Polish space. -- Cette thèse se situe dans les domaines de la combinatoire, de la théorie des ordres et de la théorie descriptive. La première contribution concerne la théorie des bons quasi-ordres (wqo) et des meilleurs quasi-ordres (bqo). Le résultat principal est la preuve d'une conjecture, énoncée par Pouzet en 1978 dans sa thèse d'état, qui établit que tout wqo dont l'ensemble des idéaux non principaux ordonnés par inclusion forme un bqo est alors lui-même un bqo. La preuve repose sur de nouveaux résultats, qui allient la combinatoire et la topologie, au sujet des fonctions d'un front vers un espace métrique compact. La seconde contribution de cette thèse traite de la complexité topologique dans le cadre des espaces To à base dénombrable. Dans le cas de l'espace de Baire, le quasi-ordre de Wadge est un wqo sur les sous-ensembles Boréliens qui a suscité énormément d'intérêt. Cependant cette relation de réduction par fonctions continues s'avère bien moins satisfaisante pour d'autres espaces d'importance tels que la droite réelle, comme l'ont fait notamment remarquer Hertling, Schlicht et Ikegami. Nous proposons de conserver la continuité et d'affaiblir la notion de fonction pour celle de relation. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons la notion de représentation admissible étudiée en « Type-2 theory of effectivity » initiée par Weihrauch. Nous introduisons alors le quasi-ordre de réduction par relations relativement continues et montrons que celui-ci à la fois raffine les hiérarchies classiques de complexité topologique et forme un wqo sur les sous-ensembles Boréliens de chaque espace quasi-Polonais.

Combinative effects of β-Lapachone and APO866 on pancreatic cancer cell death through reactive oxygen species production and PARP-1 activation.

UNLABELLED: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the most lethal human malignancies and a major health problem. Patients diagnosed with PC and treated with conventional approaches have an overall 5-year survival rate of less than 5%. Novel strategies are needed to treat this disease. Herein, we propose a combinatorial strategy that targets two unrelated metabolic enzymes overexpressed in PC cells: NAD(P)H: quinone oxidoreductase-1 (NQO1) and nicotinamide phosphoribosyl transferase (NAMPT) using β-lapachone (BL) and APO866, respectively. We show that BL tremendously enhances the antitumor activity of APO866 on various PC cell lines without affecting normal cells, in a PARP-1 dependent manner. The chemopotentiation of APO866 with BL was characterized by the following: (i) nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) depletion; (ii) catalase (CAT) degradation; (iii) excessive H2O2 production; (iv) dramatic drop of mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP); and finally (v) autophagic-associated cell death. H2O2 production, loss of MMP and cell death (but not NAD depletion) were abrogated by exogenous supplementation with CAT or pharmacological or genetic inhibition of PARP-1. Our data demonstrates that the combination of a non-lethal dose of BL and low dose of APO866 optimizes significantly cell death on various PC lines over both compounds given separately and open new and promising combination in PC therapy.

Assessing an Adolescent's Capacity for Autonomous Decision-Making in Clinical Care.

The purpose of this article is to provide policy guidance on how to assess the capacity of minor adolescents for autonomous decision-making without a third party authorization, in the field of clinical care. In June 2014, a two-day meeting gathered 20 professionals from all continents, working in the field of adolescent medicine, neurosciences, developmental and clinical psychology, sociology, ethics, and law. Formal presentations and discussions were based on a literature search and the participants' experience. The assessment of adolescent decision-making capacity includes the following: (1) a review of the legal context consistent with the principles of the Convention on the Rights of the Child; (2) an empathetic relationship between the adolescent and the health care professional/team; (3) the respect of the adolescent's developmental stage and capacities; (4) the inclusion, if relevant, of relatives, peers, teachers, or social and mental health providers with the adolescent's consent; (5) the control of coercion and other social forces that influence decision-making; and (6) a deliberative stepwise appraisal of the adolescent's decision-making process. This stepwise approach, already used among adults with psychiatric disorders, includes understanding the different facets of the given situation, reasoning on the involved issues, appreciating the outcomes linked with the decision(s), and expressing a choice. Contextual and psychosocial factors play pivotal roles in the assessment of adolescents' decision-making capacity. The evaluation must be guided by a well-established procedure, and health professionals should be trained accordingly. These proposals are the first to have been developed by a multicultural, multidisciplinary expert panel.

Coev-web: a web platform designed to simulate and evaluate coevolving positions along a phylogenetic tree.

BACKGROUND: Available methods to simulate nucleotide or amino acid data typically use Markov models to simulate each position independently. These approaches are not appropriate to assess the performance of combinatorial and probabilistic methods that look for coevolving positions in nucleotide or amino acid sequences. RESULTS: We have developed a web-based platform that gives a user-friendly access to two phylogenetic-based methods implementing the Coev model: the evaluation of coevolving scores and the simulation of coevolving positions. We have also extended the capabilities of the Coev model to allow for the generalization of the alphabet used in the Markov model, which can now analyse both nucleotide and amino acid data sets. The simulation of coevolving positions is novel and builds upon the developments of the Coev model. It allows user to simulate pairs of dependent nucleotide or amino acid positions. CONCLUSIONS: The main focus of our paper is the new simulation method we present for coevolving positions. The implementation of this method is embedded within the web platform Coev-web that is freely accessible at http://coev.vital-it.ch/, and was tested in most modern web browsers.

Future perspectives in melanoma research: meeting report from the "Melanoma Bridge": Napoli, December 3rd-6th 2014.

The fourth "Melanoma Bridge Meeting" took place in Naples, December 3-6th, 2014. The four topics discussed at this meeting were: Molecular and Immunological Advances, Combination Therapies, News in Immunotherapy, and Tumor Microenvironment and Biomarkers. Until recently systemic therapy for metastatic melanoma patients was ineffective, but recent advances in tumor biology and immunology have led to the development of new targeted and immunotherapeutic agents that prolong progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). New therapies, such as mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway inhibitors as well as other signaling pathway inhibitors, are being tested in patients with metastatic melanoma either as monotherapy or in combination, and all have yielded promising results. These include inhibitors of receptor tyrosine kinases (BRAF, MEK, and VEGFR), the phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase (PI3K) pathway [PI3K, AKT, mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR)], activators of apoptotic pathway, and the cell cycle inhibitors (CDK4/6). Various locoregional interventions including radiotherapy and surgery are still valid approaches in treatment of advanced melanoma that can be integrated with novel therapies. Intrinsic, adaptive and acquired resistance occur with targeted therapy such as BRAF inhibitors, where most responses are short-lived. Given that the reactivation of the MAPK pathway through several distinct mechanisms is responsible for the majority of acquired resistance, it is logical to combine BRAF inhibitors with inhibitors of targets downstream in the MAPK pathway. For example, combination of BRAF/MEK inhibitors (e.g., dabrafenib/trametinib) have been demonstrated to improve survival compared to monotherapy. Application of novel technologies such sequencing have proven useful as a tool for identification of MAPK pathway-alternative resistance mechanism and designing other combinatorial therapies such as those between BRAF and AKT inhibitors. Improved survival rates have also been observed with immune-targeted therapy for patients with metastatic melanoma. Immune-modulating antibodies came to the forefront with anti-CTLA-4, programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) and PD-1 ligand 1 (PD-L1) pathway blocking antibodies that result in durable responses in a subset of melanoma patients. Agents targeting other immune inhibitory (e.g., Tim-3) or immune stimulating (e.g., CD137) receptors and other approaches such as adoptive cell transfer demonstrate clinical benefit in patients with melanoma as well. These agents are being studied in combination with targeted therapies in attempt to produce longer-term responses than those more typically seen with targeted therapy. Other combinations with cytotoxic chemotherapy and inhibitors of angiogenesis are changing the evolving landscape of therapeutic options and are being evaluated to prevent or delay resistance and to further improve survival rates for this patient population. This meeting's specific focus was on advances in combination of targeted therapy and immunotherapy. Both combination targeted therapy approaches and different immunotherapies were discussed. Similarly to the previous meetings, the importance of biomarkers for clinical application as markers for diagnosis, prognosis and prediction of treatment response was an integral part of the meeting. The overall emphasis on biomarkers supports novel concepts toward integrating biomarkers into contemporary clinical management of patients with melanoma across the entire spectrum of disease stage. Translation of the knowledge gained from the biology of tumor microenvironment across different tumors represents a bridge to impact on prognosis and response to therapy in melanoma.

L'informatique: un outil remarquable pour l'enseignement de la médecine interne générale [The informatics: a remarkable tool for teaching general internal medicine].

INTERMED training implies a three week course, integrated in the "primary care module" for medical students in the first master year at the school of medicine in Lausanne. INTERMED uses an innovative teaching method based on repetitive sequences of e-learning-based individual learning followed by collaborative learning activities in teams, named Team-based learning (TBL). The e-learning takes place in a web-based virtual learning environment using a series of interactive multimedia virtual patients. By using INTERMED students go through a complete medical encounter applying clinical reasoning and choosing the diagnostic and therapeutic approach. INTERMED offers an authentic experience in an engaging and safe environment where errors are allowed and without consequences.

A cognitive hierarchy model of behavior in the action commitment game

We apply the cognitive hierarchy model of Camerer et al. (Q J Econ 119(3):861-898, 2004)-where players have different levels of reasoning-to Huck et al. (Games Econ Behav 38:240-264, 2002) discrete version of Hamilton and Slutsky (Games Econ Behav 2:29-46, 1990) action commitment game-a duopoly with endogenous timing of entry. We show that, for an empirically reasonable average number of thinking steps, the model rules out Stackelberg equilibria, generates Cournot outcomes including delay, and outcomes where the first mover commits to a quantity higher than Cournot but lower than Stackelberg leader. We show that a cognitive hierarchy model with quantal responses can explain the most important features of the experimental data on the action commitment game in (2002). In order to gauge the success of the model in fitting the data, we compare it to a noisy Nash model. We find that the cognitive hierarchy model with quantal responses fits the data better than the noisy Nash model.