Subjective health assessments and active labor market participation of older men: evidence from a semiparametric binary choice model with nonadditive correlated individual-specific effects

We use panel data from the U. S. Health and Retirement Study, 1992-2002, to estimate the effect of self-assessed health limitations on the active labor market participation of older men. Self-assessments of health are likely to be endogenous to labor supply due to justification bias and individual-specific heterogeneity in subjective evaluations. We address both concerns. We propose a semiparametric binary choice procedure that incorporates nonadditive correlated individual-specific effects. Our estimation strategy identifies and estimates the average partial effects of health and functioning on labor market participation. The results indicate that poor health plays a major role in labor market exit decisions.

Estimation de la fonction rénale par l'equation MDRD: intérêt et limites pour l'adaptation des doses de médicaments [Renal function estimation by MDRD equation: interest and limitations for drug dosing].

The MDRD (Modification of diet in renal disease) equation enables glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation from serum creatinine only. Thus, the laboratory can report an estimated GFR (eGFR) with each serum creatinine assessment, increasing therefore the recognition of renal failure. Predictive performance of MDRD equation is better for GFR < 60 ml/min/1,73 m2. A normal or near-normal renal function is often underestimated by this equation. Overall, MDRD provides more reliable estimations of renal function than the Cockcroft-Gault (C-G) formula, but both lack precision. MDRD is not superior to C-G for drug dosing. Being adjusted to 1,73 m2, MDRD eGFR has to be back adjusted to the patient's body surface area for drug dosing. Besides, C-G has the advantage of a greater simplicity and a longer use.

Dense Deformation Field Estimation for Atlas Registration using the Active Contour Framework

In this paper, we propose a new paradigm to carry outthe registration task with a dense deformation fieldderived from the optical flow model and the activecontour method. The proposed framework merges differenttasks such as segmentation, regularization, incorporationof prior knowledge and registration into a singleframework. The active contour model is at the core of ourframework even if it is used in a different way than thestandard approaches. Indeed, active contours are awell-known technique for image segmentation. Thistechnique consists in finding the curve which minimizesan energy functional designed to be minimal when thecurve has reached the object contours. That way, we getaccurate and smooth segmentation results. So far, theactive contour model has been used to segment objectslying in images from boundary-based, region-based orshape-based information. Our registration technique willprofit of all these families of active contours todetermine a dense deformation field defined on the wholeimage. A well-suited application of our model is theatlas registration in medical imaging which consists inautomatically delineating anatomical structures. Wepresent results on 2D synthetic images to show theperformances of our non rigid deformation field based ona natural registration term. We also present registrationresults on real 3D medical data with a large spaceoccupying tumor substantially deforming surroundingstructures, which constitutes a high challenging problem.

Estimating national-level syringe availability to injecting drug users and injection coverage: Switzerland, 1996-2006.

BACKGROUND: Measuring syringe availability and coverage is essential in the assessment of HIV/AIDS risk reduction policies. Estimates of syringe availability and coverage were produced for the years 1996 and 2006, based on all relevant available national-level aggregated data from published sources. METHODS: We defined availability as the total monthly number of syringes provided by harm reduction system divided by the estimated number of injecting drug users (IDU), and defined coverage as the proportion of injections performed with a new syringe, at national level (total supply over total demand). Estimates of supply of syringes were derived from the national monitoring system, including needle and syringe programmes (NSP), pharmacies, and medically prescribed heroin programmes. Estimates of syringe demand were based on the number of injections performed by IDU derived from surveys of low threshold facilities for drug users (LTF) with NSP combined with the number of IDU. This number was estimated by two methods combining estimates of heroin users (multiple estimation method) and (a) the number of IDU in methadone treatment (MT) (non-injectors) or (b) the proportion of injectors amongst LTF attendees. Central estimates and ranges were obtained for availability and coverage. RESULTS: The estimated number of IDU decreased markedly according to both methods. The MT-based method (from 14,818 to 4809) showed a much greater decrease and smaller size of the IDU population compared to the LTF-based method (from 24,510 to 12,320). Availability and coverage estimates are higher with the MT-based method. For 1996, central estimates of syringe availability were 30.5 and 18.4 per IDU per month; for 2006, they were 76.5 and 29.9. There were 4 central estimates of coverage. For 1996 they ranged from 24.3% to 43.3%, and for 2006, from 50.5% to 134.3%. CONCLUSION: Although 2006 estimates overlap 1996 estimates, the results suggest a shift to improved syringe availability and coverage over time.

Phylogenetic approach reveals that virus genotype largely determines HIV set-point viral load.

HIV virulence, i.e. the time of progression to AIDS, varies greatly among patients. As for other rapidly evolving pathogens of humans, it is difficult to know if this variance is controlled by the genotype of the host or that of the virus because the transmission chain is usually unknown. We apply the phylogenetic comparative approach (PCA) to estimate the heritability of a trait from one infection to the next, which indicates the control of the virus genotype over this trait. The idea is to use viral RNA sequences obtained from patients infected by HIV-1 subtype B to build a phylogeny, which approximately reflects the transmission chain. Heritability is measured statistically as the propensity for patients close in the phylogeny to exhibit similar infection trait values. The approach reveals that up to half of the variance in set-point viral load, a trait associated with virulence, can be heritable. Our estimate is significant and robust to noise in the phylogeny. We also check for the consistency of our approach by showing that a trait related to drug resistance is almost entirely heritable. Finally, we show the importance of taking into account the transmission chain when estimating correlations between infection traits. The fact that HIV virulence is, at least partially, heritable from one infection to the next has clinical and epidemiological implications. The difference between earlier studies and ours comes from the quality of our dataset and from the power of the PCA, which can be applied to large datasets and accounts for within-host evolution. The PCA opens new perspectives for approaches linking clinical data and evolutionary biology because it can be extended to study other traits or other infectious diseases.

How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Optimal robust estimates using the Hellinger distance

Optimal robust M-estimates of a multidimensional parameter are described using Hampel's infinitesimal approach. The optimal estimates are derived by minimizing a measure of efficiency under the model, subject to a bounded measure of infinitesimal robustness. To this purpose we define measures of efficiency and infinitesimal sensitivity based on the Hellinger distance.We show that these two measures coincide with similar ones defined by Yohai using the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and therefore the corresponding optimal estimates coincide too.We also give an example where we fit a negative binomial distribution to a real dataset of "days of stay in hospital" using the optimal robust estimates.

Robust synchronization of coupled circadian and cell cycle oscillators in single mammalian cells.

Circadian cycles and cell cycles are two fundamental periodic processes with a period in the range of 1 day. Consequently, coupling between such cycles can lead to synchronization. Here, we estimated the mutual interactions between the two oscillators by time-lapse imaging of single mammalian NIH3T3 fibroblasts during several days. The analysis of thousands of circadian cycles in dividing cells clearly indicated that both oscillators tick in a 1:1 mode-locked state, with cell divisions occurring tightly 5 h before the peak in circadian Rev-Erbα-YFP reporter expression. In principle, such synchrony may be caused by either unidirectional or bidirectional coupling. While gating of cell division by the circadian cycle has been most studied, our data combined with stochastic modeling unambiguously show that the reverse coupling is predominant in NIH3T3 cells. Moreover, temperature, genetic, and pharmacological perturbations showed that the two interacting cellular oscillators adopt a synchronized state that is highly robust over a wide range of parameters. These findings have implications for circadian function in proliferative tissues, including epidermis, immune cells, and cancer.

Non-invasive and non-occlusive blood pressure estimation via a chest sensor.

The clinical demand for a device to monitor Blood Pressure (BP) in ambulatory scenarios with minimal use of inflation cuffs is increasing. Based on the so-called Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) principle, this paper introduces and evaluates a novel concept of BP monitor that can be fully integrated within a chest sensor. After a preliminary calibration, the sensor provides non-occlusive beat-by-beat estimations of Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) by measuring the Pulse Transit Time (PTT) of arterial pressure pulses travelling from the ascending aorta towards the subcutaneous vasculature of the chest. In a cohort of 15 healthy male subjects, a total of 462 simultaneous readings consisting of reference MAP and chest PTT were acquired. Each subject was recorded at three different days: D, D+3 and D+14. Overall, the implemented protocol induced MAP values to range from 80 ± 6 mmHg in baseline, to 107 ± 9 mmHg during isometric handgrip maneuvers. Agreement between reference and chest-sensor MAP values was tested by using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC = 0.78) and Bland-Altman analysis (mean error = 0.7 mmHg, standard deviation = 5.1 mmHg). The cumulative percentage of MAP values provided by the chest sensor falling within a range of ±5 mmHg compared to reference MAP readings was of 70%, within ±10 mmHg was of 91%, and within ±15mmHg was of 98%. These results point at the fact that the chest sensor complies with the British Hypertension Society (BHS) requirements of Grade A BP monitors, when applied to MAP readings. Grade A performance was maintained even two weeks after having performed the initial subject-dependent calibration. In conclusion, this paper introduces a sensor and a calibration strategy to perform MAP measurements at the chest. The encouraging performance of the presented technique paves the way towards an ambulatory-compliant, continuous and non-occlusive BP monitoring system.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

S-system parameter estimation for noisy metabolic profiles using newton-flow analysis.

Biochemical systems are commonly modelled by systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). A particular class of such models called S-systems have recently gained popularity in biochemical system modelling. The parameters of an S-system are usually estimated from time-course profiles. However, finding these estimates is a difficult computational problem. Moreover, although several methods have been recently proposed to solve this problem for ideal profiles, relatively little progress has been reported for noisy profiles. We describe a special feature of a Newton-flow optimisation problem associated with S-system parameter estimation. This enables us to significantly reduce the search space, and also lends itself to parameter estimation for noisy data. We illustrate the applicability of our method by applying it to noisy time-course data synthetically produced from previously published 4- and 30-dimensional S-systems. In addition, we propose an extension of our method that allows the detection of network topologies for small S-systems. We introduce a new method for estimating S-system parameters from time-course profiles. We show that the performance of this method compares favorably with competing methods for ideal profiles, and that it also allows the determination of parameters for noisy profiles.

Estimation of inelastic seismic material properties of a surgical sea-bed from multi-component marine seismic data

To date, state-of-the-art seismic material parameter estimates from multi-component sea-bed seismic data are based on the assumption that the sea-bed consists of a fully elastic half-space. In reality, however, the shallow sea-bed generally consists of soft, unconsolidated sediments that are characterized by strong to very strong seismic attenuation. To explore the potential implications, we apply a state-of-the-art elastic decomposition algorithm to synthetic data for a range of canonical sea-bed models consisting of a viscoelastic half-space of varying attenuation. We find that in the presence of strong seismic attenuation, as quantified by Q-values of 10 or less, significant errors arise in the conventional elastic estimation of seismic properties. Tests on synthetic data indicate that these errors can be largely avoided by accounting for the inherent attenuation of the seafloor when estimating the seismic parameters. This can be achieved by replacing the real-valued expressions for the elastic moduli in the governing equations in the parameter estimation by their complex-valued viscoelastic equivalents. The practical application of our parameter procedure yields realistic estimates of the elastic seismic material properties of the shallow sea-bed, while the corresponding Q-estimates seem to be biased towards too low values, particularly for S-waves. Given that the estimation of inelastic material parameters is notoriously difficult, particularly in the immediate vicinity of the sea-bed, this is expected to be of interest and importance for civil and ocean engineering purposes.

The truncated mean of an asymmetric distribution

This paper investigates a simple procedure to estimate robustly the mean of an asymmetric distribution. The procedure removes the observations which are larger or smaller than certain limits and takes the arithmetic mean of the remaining observations, the limits being determined with the help of a parametric model, e.g., the Gamma, the Weibull or the Lognormal distribution. The breakdown point, the influence function, the (asymptotic) variance, and the contamination bias of this estimator are explored and compared numerically with those of competing estimates.