Pattern recognition ecological niche models fit to presence-only and presence-absence data

1. Identifying the boundary of a species' niche from observational and environmental data is a common problem in ecology and conservation biology and a variety of techniques have been developed or applied to model niches and predict distributions. Here, we examine the performance of some pattern-recognition methods as ecological niche models (ENMs). Particularly, one-class pattern recognition is a flexible and seldom used methodology for modelling ecological niches and distributions from presence-only data. The development of one-class methods that perform comparably to two-class methods (for presence/absence data) would remove modelling decisions about sampling pseudo-absences or background data points when absence points are unavailable. 2. We studied nine methods for one-class classification and seven methods for two-class classification (five common to both), all primarily used in pattern recognition and therefore not common in species distribution and ecological niche modelling, across a set of 106 mountain plant species for which presence-absence data was available. We assessed accuracy using standard metrics and compared trade-offs in omission and commission errors between classification groups as well as effects of prevalence and spatial autocorrelation on accuracy. 3. One-class models fit to presence-only data were comparable to two-class models fit to presence-absence data when performance was evaluated with a measure weighting omission and commission errors equally. One-class models were superior for reducing omission errors (i.e. yielding higher sensitivity), and two-classes models were superior for reducing commission errors (i.e. yielding higher specificity). For these methods, spatial autocorrelation was only influential when prevalence was low. 4. These results differ from previous efforts to evaluate alternative modelling approaches to build ENM and are particularly noteworthy because data are from exhaustively sampled populations minimizing false absence records. Accurate, transferable models of species' ecological niches and distributions are needed to advance ecological research and are crucial for effective environmental planning and conservation; the pattern-recognition approaches studied here show good potential for future modelling studies. This study also provides an introduction to promising methods for ecological modelling inherited from the pattern-recognition discipline.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

A new accelerometric method to assess the daily walking practice.

OBJECTIVE: To describe a method to obtain a profile of the duration and intensity (speed) of walking periods over 24 hours in women under free-living conditions. DESIGN: A new method based on accelerometry was designed for analyzing walking activity. In order to take into account inter-individual variability of acceleration, an individual calibration process was used. Different experiments were performed to highlight the variability of acceleration vs walking speed relationship, to analyze the speed prediction accuracy of the method, and to test the assessment of walking distance and duration over 24-h. SUBJECTS: Twenty-eight women were studied (mean+/-s.d.) age: 39.3+/-8.9 y; body mass: 79.7+/-11.1 kg; body height: 162.9+/-5.4 cm; and body mass index (BMI) 30.0+/-3.8 kg/m(2). RESULTS: Accelerometer output was significantly correlated with speed during treadmill walking (r=0.95, P<0.01), and short unconstrained walks (r=0.86, P<0.01), although with a large inter-individual variation of the regression parameters. By using individual calibration, it was possible to predict walking speed on a standard urban circuit (predicted vs measured r=0.93, P<0.01, s.e.e.=0.51 km/h). In the free-living experiment, women spent on average 79.9+/-36.0 (range: 31.7-168.2) min/day in displacement activities, from which discontinuous short walking activities represented about 2/3 and continuous ones 1/3. Total walking distance averaged 2.1+/-1.2 (range: 0.4-4.7) km/day. It was performed at an average speed of 5.0+/-0.5 (range: 4.1-6.0) km/h. CONCLUSION: An accelerometer measuring the anteroposterior acceleration of the body can estimate walking speed together with the pattern, intensity and duration of daily walking activity.

Life-course socioeconomic environment and health risk behaviours: a multilevel small-area analysis of young-old persons in an urban neighbourhood in Lausanne, Switzerland

With a life expectancy at the age of 65 of around 20 years, damaging health risk behaviours of young-old adults have become a target for preventive actions. Such risk factors necessitate an accurate understanding of the present and past socioeconomic conditions associated with health risk behaviours. The aim of our study is to assess the impact of certain life events as well as economic and environmental factors on health risk behaviours. We included 1309 participants of the Lausanne Cohort Lc65+ aged 65-70 years and employed logistic regression analyses, with individuals nested within areas. The results illustrate the influences of socioeconomic factors from childhood to young-old age. Life experiences in adulthood and economic resources in young-old age are both associated with unfavourable health behaviours. Neighbourhood is a modest determinant as well, particularly regarding alcohol consumption. Therefore, prevention against health risk behaviours should focus on population subgroups defined on the basis of their socioeconomic and living contexts.

Pattern and clinical significance of cancer-testis gene expression in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Les cancer-testis antigènes appartiennent à la famille des antigènes tumoraux spécifiques. Ils ont montré un pouvoir immunogène chez les patients porteurs de différents cancers. En effet, ils stimulent sélectivement les lymphocytes cytotoxiques, et leur expression spécifique dans les tissus tumoraux en fait une cible idéale pour une vaccination antitumorale. Le but de cette étude est d'identifier l'expression de certains de ces antigènes, d'analyser leur valeur pronostique et de déterminer la meilleure cible antigénique pour permettre une immunothérapie spécifique dans les carcinomes épidermoïdes des voies aérodigestives supérieures. Le profil et le taux d'expression de 12 cancer-testis antigènes (MAGE-A1, MAGE-A3, MAGE-A4, MAGEA10, MAGE-C2, NY-ESO-1, LAGE-1, SSX-2, SSX-4, BAGE, GAGE-1/2, GAGE-3/4) et de 3 autres antigènes tumoraux spécifiques (PRAME, HERV-K-MEL, NA-17A) ont été évalués par RT-PCR sur 57 échantillons de cancers ORL primaires. Les paramètres tumoraux et cliniques ont été prospectivement collectés afin de corréler ces données avec le résultat de nos investigations immunobiologiques. Quatre-vingt-huit pour cent des tumeurs expriment au moins 1 antigène. Une co-expression de 3 gènes ou plus est détectée chez 59% des patients. MAGE-A4 (60%), MAGE-A3 (51%), PRAME (49%) et HERV-K-MEL (42%) sont les gènes le plus fréquemment exprimés. Ils sont totalement absents des muqueuses saines avoisinantes. La présence de MAGE-A et NY-ESO-1 à la surface des cellules a été vérifiée par immunohistochimie. Nos analyses statistiques ont permis d'identifier une diminution de la survie liée au cancer chez les patients porteurs d'une tumeur exprimant de multiples cancer-testis antigènes et notamment MAGE-A4 dont l'expression indépendante d'autres éléments cliniques s'associe statistiquement à un taux de survie diminué. Nos résultats ont permis d'identifier un rôle pronostique de l'expression des gènes associés aux tumeurs dont l'expression est apparemment liée à un phénotype de malignité plus élevé. Cette constatation, corroborée par l'identification parallèle d'un infiltrat lymphocytaire spécifique confirme l'utilité potentielle de certains cancer-testis antigènes comme cible pour une immunothérapie ciblée dans les carcinomes des voies aérodigestives supérieures

A clinical pattern-based etiological diagnostic strategy for sensory neuronopathies: a French collaborative study.

Sensory neuronopathies (SNNs) encompass paraneoplastic, infectious, dysimmune, toxic, inherited, and idiopathic disorders. Recently described diagnostic criteria allow SNN to be differentiated from other forms of sensory neuropathy, but there is no validated strategy based on routine clinical investigations for the etiological diagnosis of SNN. In a multicenter study, the clinical, biological, and electrophysiological characteristics of 148 patients with SNN were analyzed. Multiple correspondence analysis and logistic regression were used to identify patterns differentiating between forms of SNNs with different etiologies. Models were constructed using a study population of 88 patients and checked using a test population of 60 cases. Four patterns were identified. Pattern A, with an acute or subacute onset in the four limbs or arms, early pain, and frequently affecting males over 60 years of age, identified mainly paraneoplastic, toxic, and infectious SNN. Pattern B identified patients with progressive SNN and was divided into patterns C and D, the former corresponding to patients with inherited or slowly progressive idiopathic SNN with severe ataxia and electrophysiological abnormalities and the latter to patients with idiopathic, dysimmune, and sometimes paraneoplastic SNN with a more rapid course than in pattern C. The diagnostic strategy based on these patterns correctly identified 84/88 and 58/60 patients in the study and test populations, respectively.

Psychiatric co-morbidities and cardiovascular risk factors in people with lifetime history of epilepsy of an urban community.

OBJECTIVES: Depression has been consistently reported in people with epilepsy. Several studies also suggest a higher burden of cardiovascular diseases. We therefore analysed psychosocial co-morbidity and cardiovascular risk factors in patients with a lifetime history of epilepsy in the PsyCoLaus study, a Swiss urban population-based assessment of mental health and cardiovascular risk factors in adults aged between 35 and 66 years. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Among 3719 participants in the PsyCoLaus study, we retrospectively identified those reporting at least 2 unprovoked seizures, defined as epilepsy. These subjects were compared to all others regarding psychiatric, social, and cardiovascular risk factors data using uni- and multivariable assessments. RESULTS: A significant higher need for social help (p<0.001) represented the only independent difference between 43 subjects with a history of epilepsy and 3676 controls, while a higher prevalence of psychiatric co-morbidities (p=0.015) and a lower prevalent marital status (p=0.01) were only significant on univariate analyses. Depression and cardio-vascular risk factors, as well as educational level and employment, were similar among the groups. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis confirms an increased prevalence of psychosocial burden in subjects with a lifetime history of epilepsy; conversely, we did not find a higher cardiovascular risk. The specific urban and geographical location of our cohort and the age span of the studied population may account for the differences from previous studies.

Early co-occurrence of a neurologic-psychiatric disease pattern in Niemann-Pick type C disease: a retrospective Swiss cohort study.

BackgroundNiemann-Pick disease type C (NP-C) is a rare autosomal recessive disorder of lysosomal cholesterol transport. The objective of this retrospective cohort study was to critically analyze the onset and time course of symptoms, and the clinical diagnostic work-up in the Swiss NP-C cohort.MethodsClinical, biochemical and genetic data were assessed for 14 patients derived from 9 families diagnosed with NP-C between 1994 and 2013. We retrospectively evaluated diagnostic delays and period prevalence rates for neurological, psychiatric and visceral symptoms associated with NP-C disease. The NP-C suspicion index was calculated for the time of neurological disease onset and the time of diagnosis.ResultsThe shortest median diagnostic delay was noted for vertical supranuclear gaze palsy (2y). Ataxia, dysarthria, dysphagia, spasticity, cataplexy, seizures and cognitive decline displayed similar median diagnostic delays (4¿5y). The longest median diagnostic delay was associated with hepatosplenomegaly (15y). Highest period prevalence rates were noted for ataxia, dysarthria, vertical supranuclear gaze palsy and cognitive decline. The NP-C suspicion index revealed a median score of 81 points in nine patients at the time of neurological disease onset which is highly suspicious for NP-C disease. At the time of diagnosis, the score increased to 206 points.ConclusionA neurologic-psychiatric disease pattern represents the most characteristic clinical manifestation of NP-C and occurs early in the disease course. Visceral manifestation such as isolated hepatosplenomegaly often fails recognition and thus highlights the importance of a work-up for lysosomal storage disorders. The NP-C suspicion index emphasizes the importance of a multisystem evaluation, but seems to be weak in monosymptomatic and infantile NP-C patients.

Evidence for catabolic pathway of propionate metabolism in CNS: expression pattern of methylmalonyl-CoA mutase and propionyl-CoA carboxylase alpha-subunit in developing and adult rat brain.

Methylmalonyl-CoA mutase (MCM) and propionyl-CoA carboxylase (PCC) are the key enzymes of the catabolic pathway of propionate metabolism and are mainly expressed in liver, kidney and heart. Deficiency of these enzymes leads to two classical organic acidurias: methylmalonic and propionic aciduria. Patients with these diseases suffer from a whole spectrum of neurological manifestations that are limiting their quality of life. Current treatment does not seem to effectively prevent neurological deterioration and pathophysiological mechanisms are poorly understood. In this article we show evidence for the expression of the catabolic pathway of propionate metabolism in the developing and adult rat CNS. Both, MCM and PCC enzymes are co-expressed in neurons and found in all regions of the CNS. Disease-specific metabolites such as methylmalonate, propionyl-CoA and 2-methylcitrate could thus be formed autonomously in the CNS and contribute to the pathophysiological mechanisms of neurotoxicity. In rat embryos (E15.5 and E18.5), MCM and PCC show a much higher expression level in the entire CNS than in the liver, suggesting a different, but important function of this pathway during brain development.

Serum glycodelin pattern during the menstrual cycle in healthy young women.

OBJECTIVE: Glycodelin (PP14) is produced by the epithelium of the endometrium and its determination in the serum is used for functional evaluation of this tissue. Given the complex regulation and the combined contraceptive and immunosuppressive roles of glycodelin, the current lack of normal values for its serum concentration in the physiological menstrual cycle, derived from a large sample number, is a problem. We have therefore established reference values from over 600 sera. DESIGN: Retrospective study using banked serum samples. SETTING: University hospital. METHODS: Measurement of blood samples daily or every second day during one full cycle. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serum concentrations of glycodelin and normal values for every such one- or two-day interval were calculated. Late luteal phase glycodelin levels were compared with ovarian hormones. Follicular phase levels were compared with stimulated cycles from patients undergoing in vitro fertilization. RESULTS: Glycodelin concentrations were low around ovulation. Highest levels were observed at the end of the luteal phase; the glycodelin serum peak was reached 6-8 days after the one for progesterone. Late luteal glycodelin levels correlated negatively with the body mass index and positively with the progesterone level earlier in the secretory (mid-luteal) phase in the same woman. No associations with other ovarian hormones were observed. Follicular phase glycodelin levels were higher in the spontaneous than in the in vitro fertilization cycles. CONCLUSIONS: Normal values taken at two- or one-day intervals demonstrate the very late appearance of high serum glycodelin levels during the physiological menstrual cycle and their correlation with progesterone occurring earlier in the cycle.

Male-pattern baldness susceptibility locus at 20p11.

We conducted a genome-wide association study for androgenic alopecia in 1,125 men and identified a newly associated locus at chromosome 20p11.22, confirmed in three independent cohorts (n = 1,650; OR = 1.60, P = 1.1 x 10(-14) for rs1160312). The one man in seven who harbors risk alleles at both 20p11.22 and AR (encoding the androgen receptor) has a sevenfold-increased odds of androgenic alopecia (OR = 7.12, P = 3.7 x 10(-15)).